Cincinnati Reds Organization Discussion

by John Sickels on Dec 18, 2025 7:01 AM EST

I am now working on the Tampa Bay Rays. The next team in line is the Cincinnati Reds. Use this thread to discuss the Reds system, paying special attention to any sleepers you want examined.

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Couple sleepers

2B Henry Rodriguez has power and speed and was just 20 years old last year in Low A. Like Jae Hoon Ha, his low walk total will probably keep you from giving him an aggressive grade, but it would seems his plate selection could improve with time and he doesn’t K much.

SP Juan Carlos Sulbaran - He improved a little in his second try at Low A. His “HR allowed” went from 19 in 2009 to 6 in 2010. His K rate remained high, and again as with Rodriguez, he was just 20 years old. He’s got great stuff if he can ever get his command down.

SP Kyle Lotzkar - not really a sleeper, but a guy people may have forgot about because he was out injured so long. Should bounce back and be one of Cinci’s top prospects again.

by MaineChief on Dec 18, 2025 8:52 AM EST reply actions

Ismael Guillon

Seems to have progressing nicely after TJ. Velocity reports have him up to 93mph.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Dec 18, 2025 9:25 AM EST reply actions

Rankings

Chapman A
Mesoraco B+
Alonso B+
Grandal B+
Hamilton B+
Yorman B+
Frazier B
Francisco B

DEEP SYSTEM!

@AroldisChapman.....is fun to follow on twiiter!

by Dave from Louisville on Dec 18, 2025 10:36 AM EST reply actions

some of those seem quite generous

by mrkupe on Dec 18, 2025 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

I think you're being generous

saying only some of those grades are generous.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Dec 18, 2025 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

He nailed Mesoraco

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 18, 2025 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I wouldn’t argue with that one or Chapman(I think), but the rest seem at least one notch too high, though a couple are two notches too high. Grandal isn’t a grade I’d fuss about, he’s on the B/B+ borderline for me.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Dec 18, 2025 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

A little rich for my taste (Grandal)

Teheran and Hellickson are the only two straight A pitchers for me.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 18, 2025 8:12 PM EST up reply actions

Any lefthander that throws 105 gets an A

@AroldisChapman.....is fun to follow on twiiter!

by Dave from Louisville on Dec 19, 2025 1:09 AM EST up reply actions

too bad

there aren’t any of those.

by another know it all on Dec 19, 2025 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

Chapman hit 105

So there is at least one.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 19, 2025 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

Yonder

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 18, 2025 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

(try again) Yonder July 2011

(Sorry, I shouldn’t try to post while playing with a 2 year old)

Best guess as to where Alonso will be in July 2011?

A) Starting corner OF for Cincinnati.
B) Starting 1B for a team NOT in southern Ohio.
C) Following the career path of Grant Desme????

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 18, 2025 7:35 PM EST up reply actions

Option B

Eased in as part-time 1B/DH for the Rays, who trade BJ Upton to get him (other details hazy).

by dbreer23 on Dec 19, 2025 3:33 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t think the Rays are dumb enough to do that. That said, if they were, I’d make that trade 1000 times without even thinking about it.

Besides, the Rays already have a light hitting 1b to plug into Pena’s spot in the lineup.

by Cormican on Dec 20, 2025 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

Best guess as to where Alonso will be in July 2011?

D) On the Reds bench as a pinch-hitter and occasional back-up at 1B and LF.

by blackoutyears on Dec 19, 2025 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

how good is Devin Mesoraco's defense, really?

It seemed like opinions were a bit mixed this year, with that talk intensifying late in the year (I’ll head assorted people off and acknowledge that fatigue may be one factor). If he’s not playing catcher (I think he’ll be good enough to start, but I’m assuming he’s not going to play every game behind the plate), where else can he play?

by mrkupe on Dec 18, 2025 1:44 PM EST reply actions

Here is what KG had to say in November

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=789

Karen (LA): what do you thinke Mesoraco’s defense behind plate?

Kevin Goldstein: He’s fine back there, maybe even a tick above average. Scouts generally believe in the breakout.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 18, 2025 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

As for my opinion on Mesoraco's defense

He has an above average arm. I have pop times from him in the 1.75-1.9 range throughout the season. He threw out over 40% of runners this year and that stretches back to last year if you cut out April and May when he was dealing with an elbow issue (2009). He is quite athletic behind the plate as well. The ‘concern’ is his number of passed balls he has allowed. I watched him over 20 times this season and I didn’t see one, which is weird because he did have quite a few. I think his receiving skills are just fine. I don’t think there should be any concern about him catching.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 18, 2025 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

I seem to recall John Manuel tweeting about some defensive lapses when he got to see Mesoraco late in-season

Sounded like a lot of them could be attributed to fatigue, which is fair as catching does take it’s toll. I was thinking that he probably gets in a handful of games at 1B as well to keep him fresh while keeping his bat in the lineup, but the presence of a stud like Votto made me wonder if there isn’t an alternate place to play him on his days off from behind the plate.

by mrkupe on Dec 18, 2025 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

How many games

do you expect him to catch, kupe?

Mesoraco has been lucky enough to have two former catchers as managers in the last year (Pat Kelley and Rick Sweet) and Sweet went out of his way to praise Mesoraco’s ability while stating that there were a lot of small things to work on in order to make him a major league catcher. With Hernandez and Hanigan back there’s no reason to rush Mes, and I expect he’ll spend most of the year in LOU pending an injury to one or both of those two. It was an exceptionally intense year. He logged almost 100 more PAs than he had ever previously done — it’s easy to forgot that his highest PA total was 357 coming into this season — all while advancing through the three top levels of the minors. Fatigued? That’s probably putting it mildly. lol

by blackoutyears on Dec 19, 2025 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

thoughts

I’d expect him to start somewhere between 120-135 games over the course of a full season, nothing out of the ordinary. Being in the NL, he doesn’t have the benefit of playing on a team with a DH slot to keep him in the lineup on his days off from catching. I’ll figure he gets 5-10 games completely off during the course of the year. That still leaves 20-35 games in a season that you’ll want to keep his bat in the lineup, just not necessarily while catching. I guess you could give him some of those DH ABs during interleague play, but there’s other players who will need those as well. Does this make sense?

by mrkupe on Dec 19, 2025 6:16 PM EST up reply actions

Does this make sense?

Yes and no. If he catches 120-135 games I don’t think you have to get his bat in the game on his off days. He’ll be available to hit off the bench but it makes more sense to keep him fresh. I guess I’m confused because a lot of (most?) catchers start that many games but don’t play another position (even DH) when not catching. It’s not like the Reds can’t weather his absence for 30-40 games a year. It just seems that what you’re proposing is an exception, not the rule.

by blackoutyears on Dec 19, 2025 11:10 PM EST up reply actions

I'm thinking of it in terms of a Mauer-like situation

Mesoraco doesn’t seem like a guy that anybody is going to want to relegate to pinch-hitting for 20-25 percent of the team’s games.

by mrkupe on Dec 20, 2025 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

Mauer

is a tough guy to comp to, and the presence of the DH may be such a huge opportunity that it skews things, right? I wonder how many N.L. teams would take advantage? Imagine catching a guy like McCann 5-10 fewer games a year and DHing him instead. Best of both worlds, right? But in the absence of that option, I think most teams just rest the catcher and consider him as a pinch hitter. I guess I’m confused because that seems more the rule than the exception. As good an offensive prospect as Mesoraco is, the Reds have a pretty solid young offensive core, and I think they can struggle by using Hanigan or someone similar to weather Mesoraco’s absence. It’s an interesting line of thought though, I have to admit.

by blackoutyears on Dec 21, 2025 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

my top 25

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/10/21/1765135/top-25-cincinnati-reds-prospects

by Havok1517 on Dec 18, 2025 3:08 PM EST reply actions

Dave Sappelt and Daryl Thompson are interesting lower-end guys.

by limozeen on Dec 18, 2025 4:51 PM EST reply actions

I think Sappelt is a bit better than a lower-end guy

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Dec 18, 2025 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe so, but I think a safe middle-of-the-road approach would be to call him an organization guy turned potential good fourth outfielder at this point. He could definitely become more if his breakout continues.

by limozeen on Dec 18, 2025 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

Sappelt

I think the guy could be a starter. He has plus range in center field and offensively he makes a lot of contact and has enough pop for a center fielder. His main issue is that he is blocked in CF for the Reds, though some think he could get a chance in left field if he keeps hitting.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 18, 2025 10:00 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed. He’s one of my favorite guys right now because I pegged him as a guy to watch when the season began and he absolutely broke out in a huge way. Plus, I like guys in his profile who go from organizational filler to big league-ready in the blink of an eye. I think I tend to be more cautious with prospects in general than most, so I’m more inclined to look for the 50th percentile than the ceiling in many cases, but I’m definitely rooting for Sappelt to become a regular. It’s always fun to have a gut feeling about some super toolshed who turns out great, but guys who vindicate my interest in their stats by becoming real prospects are my favorites of all.

by limozeen on Dec 19, 2025 1:40 AM EST up reply actions

They have an insanely crowded Outfield in Cincy, and I imagine we’ll start seeing the likes of Sappelt, Heisey, Alonso and possibly Frazier traded.

by Cormican on Dec 20, 2025 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

The Reds have no current left fielder

So I don’t think we are going to see those guys traded until that position gets filled.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 20, 2025 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

I’m a Phillies fan, so I don’t follow the MLB Reds, just some prospects. I thought Stubbs was staying in Left Field?

by Cormican on Dec 20, 2025 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

Stubbs has always been a center fielder

He has never played anywhere but center as a major leaguer and mostly there in the minors so other guys could get some time there as well.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 20, 2025 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

Was it Gomes that was starting in Left then? I could understand wanting to upgrade over Gomes. Even if their LF only produces at league average WAR for a LF, that will be one hell of an outfield in Cincy.

by Cormican on Dec 21, 2025 10:32 AM EST up reply actions

Was it Gomes that was starting in Left then?

Yes, and he’s slated to do so again. If nothing changes they’ll start him most games and use Heisey as a late-inning defensive replacement and give Heisey the odd start. I suspect that Gomes is on slightly thinner ice this year, and I hope that all of Heisey, Frazier, Alonso and Sappelt get opportunities. As for trades, Alonso has the highest value and his is relatively stagnant at this point. I don’t think you get much for the other guys unless/until they prove they’re major league regulars. Heisey is closest to that of the true OFers on that list.

by blackoutyears on Dec 21, 2025 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

I'm really curious about all of the young Latin American players

Guillon, Correa, Arias, Torreyes all seem to have significant upside, but they are all so young and new to USA baseball.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 18, 2025 6:16 PM EST reply actions

Juan Francisco

What are the Reds’ plans for him in 2011,12? Put him in AAA to mash and develop a little more plate discipline? Wait another year on the bench, then starting at 3B in 2012 post-Rolen? Give him a shot at starting LF in Cincy spring training this year?

I have him for $1 in an NL-Only Dynasty League. Way too many details to share for opinions on keeper status - but some opinions on his chances of contributing in the next few years from Reds fans who follow the farm system closely would be appreciated so I can make a value judgement. Thanks.

by Ramakis34 on Dec 19, 2025 1:30 PM EST reply actions

Thats a really good question

Most of us think that he is in need of more AAA time, but the Reds might not be on the same wave length as we are. I don’t think he is likely to get a ton of MLB time in 2011 unless Rolen goes down for an extended period of time, but I think 2012 could get him some legit time assuming his plate discipline keeps progressing. Numbers wise, his plate discipline looks much worse than it does when you watch him. He has made big strides in his plate discipline. His main issue at this point is that he still seems to think that walking is a bad thing, but unlike in the past, he is taking pitches and waiting for better ones instead of just swinging at whatever the pitcher throws. But when he gets into a 3 ball count, he battles with all of his might trying to put the ball in play. I think if someone can convince him that walking is not bad, then he will be able to be a 40-50 walk player.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 19, 2025 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

Francisco

has exceptional contact ability, and I agree with Doug’s stance that (anecdotally speaking) you saw better decisions within ABs this year. That said, he still thinks he can hit everything, and he has a long way to go to post even an average walk rate. He really can get the bat to a lot of balls that other guys whiff on, and that leads to respectable avg, which should buy him chances other guys with his power/whiff profile don’t get. The bigger problem for me is that he doesn’t seem to be an exceptional defender, and I don’t see Jocketty accepting the drop-off from Rolen to Francisco once Rolen departs. This org has really started to emphasize defense. If I had Francisco in a dynasty league I’d have reservations as long as he remains a Red. I’d probably hang on another year and see if he a) made some of the adjustments we’re discussing and b) got traded to a team that could give him regular PT. I just don’t see how he fits into the Reds’ plans, and I’m not even sure how much rope he’d have in the event of a Rolen injury. He’d be much better off on a team that wasn’t in contend mode.

by blackoutyears on Dec 19, 2025 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

he doesn’t seem to be an exceptional defender

That’s a bit of an understatement. But, like his hitting, it has improved. I don’t think he’ll ever be a top notch Defender, but with his power, he may be able to get away with that. For what it’s worth, I’ve seen him play 25-30 times when he was in Double-A and most of his errors were of the throwing variety from what I recall.

by Cormican on Dec 20, 2025 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

most of his errors were of the throwing variety

Which is damning in itself as his arm is supposed to be his strongest asset, right? I think there’s a scenario where he could play 3B for someone, contingent on his hitting for solid average and power (very possible), but I just don’t think he’s a fit for an org like the Reds which places great emphasis on defense. Gomes stuck like the sorest of thumbs last year because literally every other player on the diamond provides above average defense. Of course, as you’re a PHI phan, I’d excuse you if you thought we were a poor defensive team after that jaw-dropping NLDS meltdown. lol

by blackoutyears on Dec 21, 2025 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

No, I know they were top flight Defensive team, though I much appreciate the timing of the Defensive abberation the Reds had in October. Our luk ran out against the Giants though.

by Cormican on Dec 21, 2025 7:52 PM EST up reply actions