Mariners Top 10 Prospects
by lmeyer40 on Oct 6, 2025 2:38 AM EDT
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Only players with no MLB experience.
This is my first post go ahead and tell me what you think.
Name-Position-Highest Level
1. Dustin Ackley 2B AAA
2. Michael Pineda RHP AAA
3. Nick Franklin SS AA
4. James Jones OF A
5. Kyle Seager 2B/3B A+
6. Alex Liddi 3B AA
7. Blake Beavan RHP AAA
8. Rich Poythress 1B/3B A+
9. Josh Lueke RHP AAA
10. Erasmo Ramirez LHP A
Honorable Mention (in no particular order)
Carlos Triunfel SS/3B AA
Stephen Pryor RHP A
Johermyn Chavez OF A+
Gabriel Noriega SS A
Mario Martinez 3B A
Ji-Man Choi C/1B A+
Maikel Cleto RHP A+
Steven Baron C A-
Josh Fields RHP AA
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You're counting September call-ups as MLB experience?
I know it is technically but, in my opinion, a guy like Halman is still a prospect.
Other than that, this is an interesting list. I dont know if I’d put Seager that high, Erasmo that low, or mention Fields at all.
by ThomasG on Oct 6, 2025 8:25 AM EDT reply actions
Erasmo...
is a classic example of why scouts do this better than internet fans. His stats and age look shiny, but he is NOT a top prospect.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
By Seager, I meant Jones.
Brain needs coffee to function properly this early.
by ThomasG on Oct 6, 2025 8:26 AM EDT reply actions
I think I like Mauricio Robles a lot more than you do.
Left-handed starter with a fastball that’s easily plus, an even better change, and success in AAA at age 21? Sounds like a guy that deserves to be at least at the top of HM.
by PissedMick on Oct 6, 2025 9:06 AM EDT reply actions
The Tigers aren't calling Andy Oliver a "starter"
by PissedMick on Oct 6, 2025 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Oliver...
has swing and miss secondary stuff and poor control.
Robles’s stuff doesn’t hold late into games, he has awful fastball command, and doesn’t get swinging strikes with his other pitches. Everything about him screams a guy whose future is as a max effort, short-stint guy.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Robles...
has swing and miss secondary stuff and poor control. His change is absolutely a ‘swing and miss’ secondary pitch, as scouting reports and AAA strikeout rates can attest to. He needs plenty of work on fastball command and overall control, just like 99% of hard-throwing 21-year-olds in the minors, most of whom aren’t working on those problems while retiring AAA hitters. It’s certainly no reason to stick a fork in his career as a starter.
by PissedMick on Oct 6, 2025 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Not surprisingly, I disagree.
Robles’s change is nowhere near as good as you’re representing. It’s not better than his fastball, or even anywhere near the weapon his fastball is. Speaking of his fastball, it loses velocity in later innings. That’s a huge red flag. He also generates a huge number of his K’s by climbing the ladder, which is a classic marker of guys with strikeout stuff in the minors who don’t translate it to the majors (see the Francisco Cruceta comp I listed below). It doesn’t fool big-leaguers the same way it fools AAA hitters.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I've read from both Churchill and Rick Adair that the change is Robles' best pitch.
That’s the word in this year’s Minor League Baseball Analyst too, for what it’s worth. You can argue the comparison if you want, but it’s not going to convince me it’s not a very good pitch. I’ve also heard the curve referred to as “flashing plus”, so perhaps the problem here is more one of consistency with his secondaries. Or perhaps you’ve just been reading a lot of Dave Cameron, whose sterling history of prospect evaluation certainly can’t be argued with.
Color me unsurprised that a guy who runs up high strikeout and walk totals has trouble maintaining his stuff in the later innings. It’s far from damning with respect to his chances as a starter. Robles is a pitcher without an enormous ceiling, but with the tools to be a damn good #3 starter. I’ll give him a chance (in AAA at 22) to iron out his inconsistency and improve his command before I banish him to the pen.
by PissedMick on Oct 6, 2025 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If a guy doesn't hold his stuff late into games...
and can’t eat innings, even if he’s putting up good rate stats it’s hard to call him a quality #3. That player will almost certainly help his team more in high leverage relief innings. Mauricio Robles, at present time, is that player. He only reached the 7th inning 5 times all last year, and he’s much less effective late in games.
He’s got a nice live arm, but I think his future is in relief. If I thought he was more likely to be a starter, I’d agree with everyone who has him ranked higher (though not as high as top 4-6 in the system).
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
And I'd argue that if he can improve his control and conserve pitches, he's goping to have a lot less trouble reaching the 7th inning.
I haven’t said in any way that Robles is ready to be a #3 right now. Prospecting is about projection. Robles doesn’t have a lot (any?) left in terms of stuff, but has plenty of time to work out his inconsistencies as he adjusts to AAA competition. As I said before, that’s why he belongs near the end of the top-10, or top of HM. I’d take him over two Beavans.
by PissedMick on Oct 6, 2025 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Dan Cortes
Cortes showed some signs of life once converted to the bullpen and in a short stint with the big club. Still a viable prospect?
by GrandeRojoMachina on Oct 6, 2025 9:33 AM EDT reply actions
A few differences of opinion:
-Liddi looks low to me, I’d move him ahead of Seager and Jones.
-Guillermo Pimentel would make my top 5. I’d think about putting him 3rd.
-Ramon Morla would make my top 10.
-Jordan Shipers, Marcus Littlewood, George Mieses and Richard Vargas would, at the very least, be honorable mentions.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
by Jeff Reese on Oct 6, 2025 9:40 AM EDT reply actions
Oops, I meant 4th for Pimentel
http://bullpenbanter.com/
by Jeff Reese on Oct 6, 2025 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty in step w/ you
My quick list:
1. Michael Pineda
2. Dustin Ackley
3. Nick Franklin
4. James Jones
5. Guillermo Pimentel
6. Kyle Seager
7. Alex Liddi
8. Ramon Morla
9. Johermyn Chavez
10. Maikel Cleto
by gogotabata on Oct 6, 2025 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
A quick, slapped up Top-10.
1. Ackley
2. Pineda
3. Franklin
4. Liddi
5. Seager
6. Pimentel
7. Jones
8. Robles
9. Beavan
10. Halman
11-15: Lueke, Ramirez, Triunfel, Choi and Chavez
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Oct 6, 2025 10:22 AM EDT reply actions
Mine would be:
1) Ackley
2) Pineda
3) Franklin
4) Pimentel
5) Littlewood (agressive ranking, but the people whose opinions I value all love him)
6) Jones
7) Seager
8) Robles
9) Chavez
10)Lueke
by Rudy4three on Oct 6, 2025 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Jharmidy DeJesus
Where was he this year? What happened to him? I see he hasn’t played, but I have heard exactly nothing about him.
by gghulsebus on Oct 6, 2025 11:28 AM EDT reply actions
He had a shoulder injury...
and has been sidelined with other random ailments as well.
he was promising 2 years ago, but now he’s just a fat guy with no work ethic. Some guys get lazy after signing a $1million contract. It happens. De Jesus is done.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks for the info
I figured he’d fallen off one way or another, but I had never really heard anything & actually kind of forgot about him.
by gghulsebus on Oct 6, 2025 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
7-10...
all don’t belong in the top-10. I wouldn’t put any of those four in the top-20.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 11:34 AM EDT reply actions
Blake Beaven is a definite #4 or #5 starter which isn't necessarily top 10, but he is definitely top 20. He's going to be a major league starting pitcher.
Erasmo Ramirez has yet to do anything to show he’s not a major league caliber pitcher either. He was excellent as one of the youngest players in low-A this year. Josh Lueke is a lights out reliever which is top 20 worthy. And while Poythress is too high, I think the system allows him to stay in the top 20. I would be interested to see your top 20 based on that statement.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 6, 2025 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Ramirez...
is a short righty who throws 87-89 mph and doesn’t miss bats. He’s got quality pitchability, but he doesn’t have anything close to a major league arm, and he has no projectability to speak of. Doug Fister upside is only worth something when you’re showing it in the major leagues.
Lueke has the best argument, but he’s still a non-flamethrowing reliever.
Beaven’s another guy whose upside is basically Doug Fister. He has fringe velocity, decent but not swing-and-miss secondary stuff, and he will make his living out of pitching to contact. The system has several better talents.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Basically Erasmo Ramirez...
is Deolis Guerra without the projectability (remember, Guerra had a classic pitchers’ frame at 6’5", 250lbs). I wasn’t a fan of Guerra, and I’m sure as hell not a believer in the poor man’s version of him.
You don’t predict a major league future for a guy who doesn’t have a major league arm. The independent leagues are littered with guys who succeeded in the low minors with fringe stuff that didn’t play against advanced competition.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Blake Beavan has a higher ceiling than Doug Fister. And last I checked they both play for the Mariners/Safeco/Defense.
So Blake Beavan is going to be very serviceable to the Mariners and I think he can do a fine job pitching to contact. Don’t forget this guy was once a flamethrower until the Rangers changed how he pitched. I think he can dial it up slightly more as he matures.
I don’t think super highly of Erasmo. He’s probably got the lowest case for “Top 20” but he’s got a case.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 6, 2025 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think he does.
The Rangers didn’t tell Beaven to throw 89-91. He doesn’t touch 93 on occasion. His velocity is down because he can’t throw as hard as he used to be able to. I think Fister actually has more upside, because while both are soft-tossing pitch to contact righties, Fister’s an above-average GB guy, while Beavan’s a pretty extreme flyballer.
You’re right, Beaven will benefit from Safeco and the Mariners’ focus on defense. That doesn’t make him a better prospect in my eyes. You can say the same about any pitch to contact guy.
If there were signs that the velocity was still in there, or if he could miss a few more bats, I’d have a different opinion.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I was always under the impression that Beavan was a pretty solid groundball guy.
A quick look at firstinning.com supports that, up until 40 innings at Tacoma this year. Does Beavan’s mix of pitches/approach lend itself to him being a flyball pitcher or something?
by PissedMick on Oct 6, 2025 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Hm...
Firstinning paints a very different picture from milb.com (had him at 1.12 G/F for the year). GB% is usually better, so there’s a good chance I’m off on this.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
"He doesn't touch 93 on occasion"
Reports I’ve read said he consistently sits 90-93.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 6, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
BA's Texas League writeup
has him at 88-92. In BA speak, that generally means sits 88-90, touches 92. No mention of him ever being clocked at 93 this year.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting.
There’s a disconnect here between this guy and BA. No idea who’s right.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
That, we can agree on.
However it sounds like you made your own interpretation of 88-92 to mean he doesn’t break 90. When its very likely he does sit in the low-90’s.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 7, 2025 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't say he doesn't break 90
From my own observations, when BA gives a “he throws X-Y mph” it tends to mean he sits in the “X+2” range and occasionally hits “Y”. I don’t know if this is the case with Beavan or not. My guess (which is consistent with things I heard at the time of trade) is that he’s consistently in the 89-91 range. It also sounds like the ESPN guy only saw him in one start, and I don’t know if he was on his own gun or a stadium gun (which run hot in the minors).
So yeah, maybe he’s 90-93, maybe he’s 88-92, but I’m not going to lose much sleep over the difference.
by slamcactus on Oct 7, 2025 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
As far as my top-20 goes...
I hashed one together a couple weeks ago, but never posted it. It doesn’t look like a lot of lists, for a few reasons, most notably that I still consider guys who aren’t yet established major leaguers “prospects,” so I include ranks of guys like Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, and Adam Moore where other people leave them out. I think the 130 AB cutoff makes sense for BA, who needs a strict (if arbitrary) dividing line, but not for the community here, who can think about whether or not a player’s “true talent” expectation is a known quantity in terms of deciding whether or not he’s still a “prospect.”
I’ll post it soon.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
The other reason my list is different...
is that I really seem to place a lot less value on ARL for marginal prospects. I think it’s hugely valuable in evaluating the good to great prospects, but I don’t give the fringe/bad guys much of a bump just because they have time to become completely different players. For guys like Gabriel Noriega, who are at present too fundamentally flawed to consider potential major leaguers, I don’t rank them purely because they happen to be young.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not just for BA, it's for rookie status. And I think you are aware that you are probably the only person here that would rank Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak on a top 20-30 list.
So as far as your other list goes, you do have at least Rich Poythress in your top 20.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 6, 2025 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right.
Poythress rated out higher than I remembered.
And I don’t really care if most other people observe BA’s uniform cutoff. As I said in the other thread, I think it detracts rather than adds to the discussion.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
You're weird.
Beavan, Lueke, and Poythress wouldn’t be in your top 20? Ramirez, okay, but the other three?
I don’t care if you don’t like Beavan, Poythress, or Ramirez for the top 10 either, but Lueke belongs there for now.
In 63 and 2.3rds innings he’s struck out 94 batters and walked only 15. He has posted double digit K/9 rates everywhere he’s gone (aside from his first advanced A stint and the Mariners this season where he posted a 9.35 K/9). His control is awesome. Even if you’re weighing his legal issues or the Mariners front office handling of the Lueke situation amongst the fans against him, he’s still one of the best power bullpen arms in the Mariners organization.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 6, 2025 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Lueke...
on talent alone he may make it, but context matters. All signs point to the Mariners not giving him a chance at the MLB level, and trading him will be very difficult.
I’m just not a Beavan fan, and I don’t really get the hype honestly.
And I’m not the only one who’s far from sold on Poythress. Scouts hate him. He earned a reputation as a guy with a metal bat swing in college, and he hasn’t changed anyone’s mind.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
There is no credible evidence to say that Lueke will never be a Mariner.
Besides, that shouldn’t effect his prospect status. Even if he ends up somewhere else where his past doesn’t matter, he’s still got the talent necessary to be a highly ranked prospect.
I’m not quibbling too heavily on Beavan. I would point out that he’s closer to major league ready than a lot of others and that should matter. He may only be Doug Fister at best, but Fister put up 2.9 WAR this season for the Mariners. 4th starters do have value, especially if they’re under team control for peanuts. It may not make them great overall prospects compared to some others, but that they will impact the team in a positive way still has to be considered as important.
Poythress may not be top 10, but he’s top 20. I don’t know where in the top 20, but he’s top 20. I saw your list above, and if you take out Smoak, Saunders, and Moore (and Paxton because he’s not signed yet), then Poythress is top 20 on your list.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 6, 2025 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually haven't given up on Steve Baron like a lot of people have, but he's got a long way to go to be "Honorable"
Too much love for James Jones and no mention of Robles has to be an oversight, as he is a top 6 prospect for me in the M’s system. Pimentel is still so young that I could see leaving him low, but you got to mention him too. In a couple years he might be our top prospect.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 6, 2025 11:42 AM EDT reply actions
Robles...
nowhere near as high on him as others. He reminds me of a lefthanded Francisco Cruceta. His FB racks up some strikeouts in the minors, but without any command of his secondary pitchers I have a really, really hard time seeing him succeeding as a starter, and while he could profile well out of the ‘pen, he doesn’t quite profile as a lefty relief ace. He wouldn’t be in my top-10 either.
by slamcactus on Oct 6, 2025 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I complete forgot about Robles and Pimentel....
They would be Honorable Mention if I did it over again though.
by lmeyer40 on Oct 6, 2025 2:33 PM EDT reply actions
Is Beaven gonna make the M's rotation next year?
Just aquired him in my dynasty league
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Oct 6, 2025 8:54 PM EDT reply actions
For the Mariners sake,
I sure as hell hope not.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
by Jeff Reese on Oct 6, 2025 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say there is a decent chance of that.
Felix is obvious.
Fister and Vargas can punch their tickets as long as they don’t implode in Spring Training.
Then you’ve got your Luke French and David Pauleys. Michael Pineda, I just don’t see it. I don’t see him coming up before June.
I think it will be a battle for the 4th/5th spot (I also think they’ll go out and get somebody that will definitely have a rotation spot) and Beavan will be in the competition.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 7, 2025 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
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