My post trade deadline Mariners top 25 prospect list
I posted this at LookoutLanding, but I'd love to hear thoughts from the crew over here if anyone has any.
I'm certainly no expert, but based on my understand of various scouting reports and performance, here's how I see it. (I'm going to include Hultzen and Miller since I expect both to sign, but no other as yet unsigned draftees as most of the others are still pretty iffy signs).
Tier 1 (Solid A prospects, top 25 overall)
1) RHP Taijuan Walker - Pleasedontgethurtpleasedontgethurtpleasedontgethurtpleasedontgethurt
2) LHP Danny Hultzen - I wasn't a big fan of the selection at draft time, but I'm coming around on him. Still not the guy I would have taken but I think he's going to start racking up a lot of WAR very quickly for the M's.
Tier 2 (B+ prospects, all in top 40 to 70 range)
3) SS Nick Franklin - The concussion put a big damper on things, but suffice to say I a) think he sticks at short and b) believe more in the breakout full season at Clinton than the disappointing half season at High Desert.
4) LHP James Paxton - The command is still spotty game to game, but this guy misses bats with the best of them. Barring injury he'll see time with the M's in 2012.
5) LF Trayvon Robinson - Probably the next Randy Winn who doesn't post enough batting average to impress or hit for enough power to satisfy but racks up 3-5 WAR seasons as a plus to plus plus defensive left fielder in Safeco who does everything at least average offensively.
Tier 3 (B- prospects, top 100-200)
6) RHP Jose Campos - My latest prospect mancrush. Showing incredible control to go with strikeout stuff and strong GB tendencies. They say the peripherals need work, but suffice to say his is the most exciting US debut of a Latin pitcher the org has seen since Felix (no, he's not the next Felix). Could easily be a top 50 guy overall by mid 2012 if he can do this at HD or Jackson. They might have him at Clinton though.
7) RF Chih-Hsien Chiang - Like everyone else I want to see that he can continue his incredible 2011, but I'm cautiously optimistic it's not a fluke. Doesn't seem to have much defensive value and he won't walk a ton, but I believe the power is real. Should be Ichiro's replacement if the M's don't extend him.
8) 3B Francisco Martinez - Scouts love him, stats are lukewarm. A toolsy but inconsistent defender, he's always been young for his level...
9) SS Carlos Triunfel...just like this guy. Seriously the two most similar prospects in the system.
10) LF Guillermo Pimentel - The Appy seems to have figured him out. The power is real but he's got to cut down on the strikeouts. At least he's starting to walk a bit.
Tier 4 (everybody else)
11) 3B/LF Vinny Catricala - The bat might be for real, but his defense is a real handicap. Don't think he can handle third, and left field just got really crowded. Might be trade bait this offseason. Much like:
12) 2B/3B Kyle Seager - Profiles best at 2B where he could potentially be an average starter, just not for the M's.
13) SS Brad Miller - Probably the hardest guy for me to slot, I still don't really know what I think of him.
14) 3B Alex Liddi - I'm a bigger fan of his defense than some, but his strikeout issues are maddening. Easy kid to root for, but feels like he's been around for forever.
15) LF Phillips Castillo - Starting to flash some patience to go with tons of doubles/triples power which will turn into HR's as he progresses. Still tons of K's, but he's just 17 and has plenty of time to work that out.
16) 2B Martin Peguero - Another 17 year old, he's probably a second baseman long term but he could be a bigtime asset with the bat at that position.
17) RF Alfredo Morales - Solid all around package of skills has thrust him onto the radar out of nowhere. Scouts seem to really like him.
18) SS/C Marcus Littlewood - Plenty of upside here if he sticks behind the plate, but I'm skeptical.
19) RHP Forrest Snow - A decent candidate to take the Mariners vacant 5th starter position, if the first couple candidates flop. Should be a solid backend starter fairly soon in the bigs.
20) RHRP Stephen Pryor - Really struggled to start the year but has been lights out of late. Probably the best relief prospect in the system at this point.
21) OF Johermyn Chavez - A respectable July has sort of put him back on the map, but his June was so terrible it hurts to look at the numbers. At 22 he's still young enough to put it together, but the shine has certainly worn off a bit.
22) LHP Jordan Shipers - The obscure late round draftee we were all thrilled the M's signed last year, turns out he was a year old for his grade so he's already 20. Has pretty good stuff and his performance has been solid so far (minus the walks), but let's face it, he's kind of the white Mauricio Robles. Which is a decent guy to have around, I guess, but not the kind of guy you do huge backflips over.
23) OF James Jones - Mr Second Half is going to half to show up in the first half one of these years or risk completely losing relevance.
24) RHP VIctor Sanchez - Just signed last week for nearly $3 million, probably deserves to be higher.
25) C/2B Jack Marder - The steal of the draft at just $200,000 in the 16th round, holding his own at High Desert and most scouts seem to think he'll stick behind the plate.
Next five (no particular order): 3B Yordi Calderon, RHP Jose Valdivia, OF Jabari Blash, RHP Ambioris Hidalgo, 1B Rich Poythress
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Outside of POS vs. SP
What’s the rationale for Franklin over Paxton?
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by JD Sussman on Aug 1, 2025 8:54 AM EDT reply actions
Franklin/Paxton are virtually tied for me
I still give the nod to Franklin since I just heard he has been battling mono this year and that helps explain some of the dropoff, but I have no issue with someone going Paxton over Franklin.
by dnc on Aug 1, 2025 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Robles?
You mention him while talking about Shipers, but don’t think he’s a top-30 prospect?
by dbreer23 on Aug 1, 2025 9:54 AM EDT reply actions
Yeah, I'm pretty down on Robles
He looks like a reliever at this point
by dnc on Aug 1, 2025 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Our Top 5 is the same
Littlewood, Jones have fallen further in my view and are not in my Top 30 considering others who have stepped up. You must not see Saunders as listable. I think Robles should receive consideration, although it depends on if you think he can recover from injury. I also don’t think Shipers is Top 30 yet.
Others to consider: Ramon Morla (Calderon is a less polished Morla), Anthony Vasquez (Most ML ready), Jamal Austin (Possible RH comp to Ezequiel Carrera), James Zamarripa
by bp42810 on Aug 1, 2025 11:42 AM EDT reply actions
Saunders/Halman/Peguero not eligible
Saunders would definitely have made the back end, if he were eligible. He’s walking up a storm right now.
I was pretty high on Morla coming into the year, but he’s 21 and posted a .451 OPS at Clinton. He’s righted himself a bit in Everett, but I don’t see how you could possibly eliminate Littlewood and include Morla. Calderon isn’t as polished as Morla defensively, but at least flashed the ability to take a walk while showing some pop. I really want to like Morla, but he’s been a huge disappointment to me this year.
Vasquez is a good suggestion - it’s not hard to see him in the ML rotation soon after the Fister/Bedard deals. Austin is going to have to prove himself over and over for me, the Jamal Strong similarities are too eerie. I like Zamarippa’s age and performance but don’t have enough scouting info on him to have a clue how he projects.
by dnc on Aug 1, 2025 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I have an irrational desire to see Liddi succeed
Having an everyday player from a European country would be pretty big, IMO.
by Fanon on Aug 1, 2025 3:48 PM EDT reply actions
Tony butler
He’s back in the organization, and looks like he’s back to the rotation after basically disappearing for a couple years. Anyone know where i can find more info on him?
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by siddfynch on Aug 1, 2025 3:48 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Shipers
Besides both being short and lefty, what exactly are the parallels with Robles? Robles came over throwing mid 90s and racking up k’s by combing the ladder on minor leaguers who can’t lay off the high heat. Shipers throws low-90s and has a package much more reliant on secondary offerings, which he can’t yet command very well. They’re very different pitchers, IMO. Robles, as you said above, screams reliever with his skill set. Shipers, though, has a pretty decent chance to stick in the rotation.
Interesting list. I’m significantly lower on Franklin, Liddi, Calderon and Blash, and higher on Catricala, Seager, and Morales. I also give Hultzen the nod as the system’s #1 and were I making my own list probably would have found a way to sneak Kevin Cron and Jose Valdivia somewhere in the 15-20 range, but about all of this reasonable people can disagree.
by slamcactus on Aug 2, 2025 11:12 AM EDT reply actions
Cron would be in there if I was confident he was going to sign
I really like Cron.
The high strikeout + high walk totals were the basis for the Shipers/Robles comp on (in addition to the height and handedness). You’re probably right about Shipers secondary stuff giving him a better chance though.
Interesting that you’re so low on Blash. I honestly thought I’d catch flack for being too low on him myself. How high are you on Catricala, Seager and Morales?
by dnc on Aug 2, 2025 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
We're not talking about major differences
I’d probably slot both Vinny and Seager ahead of Triunfel but behind Martinez and Robinson. Morales would probably slate 5 or 6 spots higher for me. I like him more than either Castillo or Peguero right now, though obviously this is all subject to change, as the teenagers from Latin America see their stock fluctuate more than amazon.com in the mid-90s.
by slamcactus on Aug 2, 2025 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Good stuff
My guess is that your take on Catricala and Seager (and Triunfel) will be the popular one. I just prefer the defensive value of Carlos to the bats of Vinny and Kyle.
by dnc on Aug 2, 2025 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

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