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Rick Porcello

 

Fastball - He has four different kinds.

  • Four seamer that he can throw anywhere from 93 to 95. He can throw even harder (up to 97) but rarely does.
  • Two seamer with solid downward action. Very consistent action but not the hardest late break. Typically 89 to 92. Sometimes I've seen him as low as 86 and sometimes up to 94.
  • Two seamer with decent downward action and good tailing action. Works this pitch well in on the hands of RH batters. Needs to use it inside on LH hitters more often. Could also back-door it on RH hitters more.
  • Two seamer with nasty late break. Maybe 2-3 a game where it's just filthy. It's just a variation of the normal 2 seamer, but if he can do this more often watch out.

Curveball

  • Typically a hammer curve but usually breaks earlier than wanted
  • Frequently it just goes high in the zone and doesn't break much. Doesn't drop back into the top of the zone to be a BP pitch. Just a ball
  • Can look far too much like his changeup. Only uses it 4-5 times a game
  • Will get 2-3 excellent ones a game. Shows enough to me that he should feature it more, get rid of the slider.

Slider

  • Rarely uses it
  • Backs up on him too often
  • Ditch it - I'd rather him throw the curve more and hopefully gain more control

Change

  • Very good pitch
  • Again has solid or very good downward action
  • Occasionally has heavy late break with tailing action. Dominant at times.
  • Locates it well.
  • Natural progression leads me to believe this could become a dominant weapon for him.

Prognosis: I really like the moving fastball and change-up combo. What I think hurts him is his slider, change, curve, fastball all have similar action. He needs to mix it up. I would get rid of the slider, mix in the curve more. There would be natural progression on the change. And most important - make the four seam fastball a weapon. At the end of the season he started to mix more in.

 

if you look at fangraphs you can see he has a low swing percent in zone. Everything he throws starts low and drops below the zone. Once a pitcher starts dropping pitches in for called strikes then hitters will start jumping at pitches instead of waiting for grooved pitches.

 

So start using the 4-seam on outside corners. Start stealing strikes. Back-door the tailing action 2-seamer. And work in that curve more often. The change will get better on it's own. Already a good pitch.

 

 

EDIT: One thing very difficult when scouting Porcello is separating the pitches. The actions is similar. His slider/curve/change have similar velocities. And similar motions. Pitch f/x can not be accurate with him unless they are looking in his glove and seeing the grip. I've seen him grip a 2 seam and drop the velocity and it looked like a hanging breaking ball before it got crushed. If I didn't see the grip no way I could have known the pitch. And his change and curve are so close. After watching enough you can see his curve hump up before dropping. Or not. It's hard to detect because he doesn't throw many. And half of what he throws are almost identical to his good change.

 

He is an excellent reason to listen to as many scouting reports as possible on young pitchers

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Comments

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Just want to say

keep these coming. I love this series of write ups you’re doing.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Feb 1, 2026 9:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

thanks

by pedrophile on Feb 1, 2026 9:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects

by ravensfan3 on Feb 1, 2026 9:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

by RedSoxFaithful on Feb 2, 2026 7:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 2, 2026 5:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Feb 2, 2026 10:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder

what his number would have looked like if he pitched in the minors. They would have been insane.

by nyy601 on Feb 1, 2026 10:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Really?

Take his MLB numbers, add a few Ks, subtract a few walks, and tack on about 40 points of BABIP to account for lousy minor league defenses, and you’ve got numbers that look a lot like the ones he posted in the majors.

Sinkerball pitchers without swing-and-miss stuff generally do not see their runs numbers improve from playing at lower levels, because the decrease in hitter skill is totally offset by decrease in defensive skill behind them.

Shawn Spencer: "I’m receiving a transmission from your husband. Really more of a voicemail, if I'm being honest. A status update. Perhaps a twitter."
Burton Guster: "I believe it’s called a tweet."
Shawn Spencer: "There’s no way I’m saying that."

by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2026 3:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is that really the case?

Coming out of the draft, he wasn’t regarded as a pitch to contact type by any stretch of the imagination. He was getting consensus comparisons to Josh Beckett (which probably had a lot to do with contractual demands as well). This is a guy that threw in the mid-90’s as a teenager with some outstanding swing and miss stuff.

Supposedly, Detroit wanted him to work on his secondary pitches his first year in the minors so he wouldn’t become accustomed to being able to just blow hitters away with his heater. This was done in hopes to speed his secondary offerings to the point where he wasn’t making young Beckett-type mistakes (following behind and being forced to challenge hitters up in the zone with cheese). Ostensibly, a second full season in the minors would allow him to continue to work on his secondary offerings as well as peppering the strike zone with that 96 mph heater that had scouts so impressed. Him being rushed to the majors may have actually slowed his development down a bit. This year will be interesting to see how his pitch variation evolves.

by nmh on Feb 2, 2026 11:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

At some point you have to stop looking at HS scouting reports

Porcello may have touched the mid 90’s as a teenager, but as a major leaguer he sits in the low 90’s with his fastball. As for the outstanding swing and miss stuff, well it doesn’t seem to have made the transition from high school to the pros. That happens all the time and really shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, especially when you realize the baseball used in professional ball has smaller seams then the balls used at the amateur level.

There’s certainly plenty of time for Porcello to refine and improve his game. In time, he may very well get back to the strikeout pitcher he was initially projected to be. Still, at some point you have to start weighting results and current scouting reports far more than what scouts saw of him in high school.

by nixa37 on Feb 2, 2026 11:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

when you say weighting the results

you’re referring to the 170 innings he threw last year for the Tigers as a 20 year old?

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Feb 2, 2026 5:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And the 125 IP in A ball last year

We have almost 300 professional innings from Porcello now that point to him not being a strikeout pitcher. That’s not to say he can’t be a very good pitcher without striking out a ton of guys or that he can’t substantially improve his K rate at some point in the future. I’m just saying that right now, it looks unlikely that he will ever become the big time strikeout, power pitcher some expected. There’s certainly nothing wrong with that.

by nixa37 on Feb 3, 2026 1:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well

You take his a 19 year old’s breaking pitch and skip them up to High A and you see how they do. Porcello’s transition from H.S. to High was great and his transition from there to the majors is even more astounding really. Stats are great but if your just looking at them your missing a big part on Porcello.

by hybrid on Feb 3, 2026 6:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Babip

I agree with your overall point, that the defensive skill in the minors may offset the skill of a sinkerballer, but it’s worth noting that his babip in 08 (A+) was identical to his bapip in 09 (MLB). His FIP in 08 was almost a full run less than it was in 09, which isn’t a surprise given the level of competition.

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on Feb 2, 2026 5:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

interesting

Being from Detroit I got to see Porcello pitch a lot last year. The truth is when he “wants” to go for the K he really does have the potential to be an above-avg. strikeout pitcher. A lot of times last year you could see he worked on keeping the ball low in the strike zone and changing speeds instead of blowing it by hitters. As pedro mentioned above, yes he can touch high 90’s with 4-seam.

by ChalupaCabrera on Feb 2, 2026 12:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1

In game 163 I think you saw Porcello try to blow some people away with success. I think his K potential is there. Not unlike Verlander who didn’t average high K per 9 until a few seasons in the majors. I’m not saying he will K as many, but that the slower development of that, to work on pitching to contact is what the Tigers seem to preach to their young aces.

by gpellet41 on Feb 2, 2026 6:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

163

gpellet you are completely right. He was a totally different pitcher that game knowing that it is win or go home, and not worrying about: next start, pitch count, rest, developing secondary pitches, etc. The guy was out there throwing, and iirc was touching 95-95 on a lot of his fb’s.

by ChalupaCabrera on Feb 2, 2026 11:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

edit

95-96.

by ChalupaCabrera on Feb 2, 2026 11:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

K/9

Pedrophile … how do you explain his low K/9 this year and in the minors?

I keep hearing that Porcello has good stuff, yet he struck out very few batters. In my experience, a low K/9 usually indicates that a pitcher won’t be successful long term.

by RM on Feb 2, 2026 11:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The K Thing

I just think it’s a bit of a myth. People are still basing it on his HS draft profile and “potential.” I’m not saying he wont get better - but if Porcello didn’t have the pre-draft hype, I can’t help but believe that people would be huge skeptics of his. If you remember, Porcello himself said in an interview two years ago that he wasn’t really a strikeout pitcher and he wasn’t sure why everyone thought that. At this point, he’s still an intriguing pitcher. He has managed to limit opposition at the ML level at a very young age - and he certainly has the ability to K more guys as he improves his secondary stuff. That said, I think it’d be foolish to expect his K rate to jump to anything more than 7 per 9. I’m not sure he is capable of anything more - but more importantly I’m not sure that he wants to do anything more. Still a good pitcher but I don’t buy him as a future ace…

by Dfarth on Feb 2, 2026 12:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I tend to view him as a guy who will develop into an innings eater. Not a future ace.

by RM on Feb 2, 2026 2:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

great post

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Feb 2, 2026 8:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Devil's advocate

Verlander only K’d 6.00 per 9 in his rookie year. In ‘09 he was over 10. You can develop that skill. Back to ChalupaCabrera’s post above, in Game 163 Porcello showed he can blow it by guys if necessary. He was using more 4-seamers in that start than he did in a typical ’09 start.

by ChrisDTX on Feb 2, 2026 1:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True, although Porcello’s K/9 was 4.69, which is significantly lower than Verlander’s. My concern is that if you don’t have a true out pitch when you hit the majors, you rarely develop one later on. What I’ve read elsewhere (BP) is that Porcello was told not to throw his best stuff this year, so he could work on his off-speed pitches, but I find that hard to believe.

by RM on Feb 2, 2026 2:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe the company line

is that Porcello shelved his curve in A-ball to work on the slider. He was back to throwing everything in ’09.

by ChrisDTX on Feb 2, 2026 3:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Verlander

He was also the hardest throwing SP in the AL in 2009 (I think). If Porcello adds an average of 4mph on his fb, I fully expect him to strikeout 10+ per 9.

by Dfarth on Feb 2, 2026 4:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The point

was not to compare the two, just to illustrate an example of a guy with a low K/9 as a rookie who improved over time. If Porcello jumps from 4.69 to, say, 7.5 I’d say that’s a win. Even if that doesn’t happen, Porcello generates enough ground balls and keeps the ball in the park well enough that he can still be an effective #2-3 starter.

by ChrisDTX on Feb 2, 2026 5:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

K/9

There are a few reasons why he doesn’t K that many. And a lot of myths.

myths
1) He isn’t using his best stuff
2) Preserving himself
3) Pitching to contact (partially valid)

reasons
1) very young. needs to learn hitters as well as situational pitching
2) all pitches have similar movement. Easier to adjust to make contact. Also, if it’s coming at the knees hitters ignore it because they know all his pitch types will drop out of the zone.
3) doesn’t throw enough called strikes. Needs a higher chase percent and you only get that when hitters actually believe your next pitch will be a strike.

All of the above are correctable. Throw the 4 seam at the knees. Next time a pitch comes at the knees they will be swinging even if it’s a 2 seam. Throw the tailing fastball in on LH hitters. Then they will have to start swinging at some inside pitches because they think it might tail back. Etc. etc.

by pedrophile on Feb 2, 2026 6:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

FYI

Porcello ditched his curveball early in the season. He was fastball/slider/change for most of the year. I’m not sure which starts you watched but he was not throwing a curve outside of his first 10 starts or so.

by uwbadger on Feb 2, 2026 4:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You sure?

Both Baseball Info Solutions (used by fangraphs) and Pitch f/x have Porcello throwing more curveballs than sliders.

Honestly, it may be a case of semantics as much as anything, as with some guys it essentially functions the same way with the only real difference being velocity.

by nixa37 on Feb 2, 2026 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Positive

He completely ditched it. I don’t know if it is gone for good but he didn’t throw them outside of the first few starts of the season. Pitch f/x really can’t be trusted on pitch types. I mean they could call some of his sliders late in the season curveballs but if you watch him throw they are all the same pitch, sliders.

by uwbadger on Feb 2, 2026 6:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

velocity?

Do you know how hard he throws that slider? Because I’m not just going on movement but some of the pitches were 74-76. His slider is a lot harder than that. I can’t remember the exact starts though because he didn’t throw the curve much.

Agreed on pitch f/x. On pitchers like him it doesn’t work.

BTW - is there any article on him ditching the curve? Wondering how you found out about this.

by pedrophile on Feb 2, 2026 6:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Late in the season at 74-76?

This article talks about it. This just kind of talks about it but that was the first time I had read about it.

The slider sits in the low 80’s but can drop in to the high 70’s and he would also run it up to 85 at some times. I don’t have any pitch f/x speed ranges on those but that is where he would throw it. But over the course of the season once he abandoned the curveball, he was getting 3’s for every breaking ball. You can run back those slower ones on mlb.tv and he’s getting 3’s. I’m guessing if you found some slow sliders then they were early in counts or get-me-overs. Early in the season he was getting 2’s for the curve and 3’s for the slider.

He’s really still trying to figure out the breaking ball. If he can come back this year with both he should be in good shape. He’s still really good without both and he is sometimes better off just throwing the two seamer than trying to be too cute with the curve/slider.

by uwbadger on Feb 2, 2026 8:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In regards to the K's

let’s keep in mind that porcello was working on strict pitch counts in ’09 in an effort to keep the innings down…….he knew going into starts that he needed to conserve pitches and rack up the quick outs as much as possible……..this was also the case in his minor league season of course

i think as the reigns start to be loosened and he’s allowed to throw 100-120 pitches consistently we will see his K rate start to rise……..given his mix i think he has the ability to, just needs the opportunity

by Wheelhouse on Feb 2, 2026 5:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs


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