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Tillman v. Latos


Chris Tillman   21   RHP   6'5   195

Level  W-L   ERA        IP          H      K/BB      GO/AO    AVG

AAA     8-6    2.70     96.67     85      99/26     0.98       .232

ML Debut 4 2/3ip 7h 3er 3hr 1bb 2k    ND

Established minor league track record pitching at every level and for the most part succeeding at each. Low 90s FB topping out at 94. 11-5 curveball, tight with late break. A true strikeout pitch. Change is just usuable. Command seems to have improved from a statistical standpoint. Prototypical pitchers frame who profiles as a front of the rotation starter.

 

Mat Latos   21    RHP   6'5     225

Level  W-L   ERA        IP          H      K/BB      GO/AO    AVG

A/AA    8-1    1.37     72.33     42     73/12      0.91       .168

ML       2-1    2.70     16.67       9      13/4        0.64       .164

Limited minor league track record only recording 184.33 IP in career since being drafted in 2006 (D/F). Mid 90s FB topping out at 97 with hard downhill plane. It grades easily as a 70. Above average to plus hard slider. Promising straight change. Overall his stuff is nasty. Command has gotten alot better by cleaning up mechanics. Has a ceiling
of a true ace.

I have a HUGE mancrush on Tillman and coming into this year if asked I think most people would have taken him easily over Latos. 4 months later the choice is not so clear cut. FWIW Tillman came in on BAs mid-season top 25 (posted July 8th) at #8 with Latos somewhere in the next 25. Although if the list was redone today I'd have to say he probably would break into the top 25 someplace. Based on pure stuff, the fact he pitches in the N.L. and Petco Park I'd have to say Latos but muddling the issue is his questionable maturity. "Though Latos shows strong competive makeup when pitching, it's a different matter entirely between starts. He tends to reject structure, lacks commitment to improve and rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude" - Baseball America. Also to be noted Tillman has never had any injurys in his career to my knowledge and Latos has had shoulder and oblique issues.

So my question is who do you think has the better career or if you want to take it to a fantasy level who would you rather have? I'd also love to hear peoples thoughts on why.

P.S. If anyone has any new info on Latos maturity or lack of I'd like to hear it.

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I would take Tillman

And, really, the deciding factor is injury risk and mechanics.

I love both of these guys, as each has outstanding stuff and unshakable poise.

I don’t think the makeup questions are relevant anymore for Latos.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Aug 1, 2025 10:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Latos...

has better stuff, but Tillman is the better pitcher and is more likely to be an above average starter in the majors.

by joegonzo on Aug 1, 2025 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about it do you prefer?

I live in San Diego and so have watched Latos pitch on TV a couple of times, and his stuff is absolutely overpowering. Fangraphs has his average FB at 94.7 - only Verlander, Jimenez and Josh Johnson have a higher average heater amongst starters. Obviously velocity isnt everything, but its got life as well, and Latos’ wipeout slider is a plus pitch.

I havent seen Tillman pitched, but found this video on youtube. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jjscytsmpjg&feature=related The fastball looks very straight and the curve looks good, but kinda loopy. An Adam Wainright style curve rather than a Josh Beckett-like power breaker. Is Tillman’s change that good?

by NRC on Aug 1, 2025 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

KG’s pre-season write up:

Tillman’s long, skinny frame is absolutely loaded with potential, which is somewhat terrifying as his right-now stuff is very good. His fastball sits at 92-94 mph while featuring a heavy boring action, and his power curveball is a true swing-and-miss offering that he’s comfortable using as an out pitch. He has clean arm action, and an aggressive, fearless mound demeanor.

Tillman has Ace stuff. His control was the issue and he’s improved that quite a bit this year. Some inconsistency with the changeup, too. Also good reports on that front so far this year. Latos has front of the rotation stuff as well, but his secondary stuff isnt quite as good as Tillman’s IMHO. Latos’s changeup is still a work in progress, though looks good so far.

Id give Tillman the slight edge in stuff. I dont think that’s really a controversial opinion at all. Theyre both two of the top pitching prospects in baseball.

Im not sure why this is controversial at all, actually. Tillman was certainly held in a higher regard than Latos going into this season and theyve both taken big steps forward and done well. I really like Latos, but all things considered Id take Tillman, mostly b/c of secondary offerings and health.

by alskor on Aug 2, 2025 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tillman's changeup

FWIW, in Tillman’s debut, his change was undoubtedly his best pitch of the night. This was surprising, because all of the reports indicated that his changeup was a good deal behind his fastball and curve.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Aug 1, 2025 10:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow...

So you are already placing Tillman>Burnett. A guy with a career 3.79ERA and 1.29WHIP.

by tt68 on Aug 1, 2025 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh and don't forget he has spent the last

4 seasons in the best division in baseball.

by tt68 on Aug 1, 2025 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then, what's Tillman...

Beckett?

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Aug 1, 2025 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That last post was to cowboy

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Aug 1, 2025 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Latos = AJ Burnett

I think the Padres would be very, very happy. Imagine Burnett in San Diego! Whoa!

by Ion293 on Aug 1, 2025 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my post was in jest

I like both guys and would prefer Tillman like most but the post was in reference to:
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/7/31/970666/comparson-clone-and-posts

by cowboy4eva on Aug 1, 2025 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

yeah cowboy we understood your attempt at being cutsy

by cubsfan1 on Aug 1, 2025 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This Board is Becoming A SSKL Playground

Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D

by cwhitman412 on Aug 2, 2025 9:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs


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