Random Draft Thoughts

by John Sickels on Jun 3, 2025 5:06 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

I've been studying the draft and watching video all day. Trying to get a handle on who might be available when the Twins pick at 22nd, both in terms of who they might really pick and who I am interested in for the Shadow Twins.

Obviously, everything depends on what happens in the first part of the round, and the Real Twins are often unpredictable on draft day. For the Shadow Twins, I'd really like a college pitcher, but the ones likely to still be on the board at 22 (Paxton, Oliver, Heckathorn) all have flaws. I now find myself hoping that perhaps a high school arm like Hobgood falls, or that I might be able to pick up toolsy LSU outfielder Jared Mitchell. Just thinking aloud here. . .

If Kyle Gibson's recent velocity loss means he's hurt, that shakes up the first part of the round big time and could have cascade effects all down the line.

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Gibson's issues could completely destroy an already confusing draft.

I won’t touch him on Saturday as scouting director for the Rangers.

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by Andy Seiler on Jun 3, 2025 6:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I didn’t really like him before, and now I can safely ignore him on mock draft day.

by jar75 on Jun 3, 2025 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is that I did like him before.

Not a huge amount, but definitely enough that I would snatch him with great joy at #14 if he was there. Now, not so much.

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by Andy Seiler on Jun 3, 2025 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He certainly put up good numbers, but I had doubts that he’d be more than a mid rotation guy. Being a Pirate fan, I’ve seen too many “safe” #3’s fail miserably to feel comfortable with Gibson.

by jar75 on Jun 3, 2025 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But he wasn't

He has multiple good pitches, solid if unspectacular velocity, and good polish. He also has the potential to add a bit to his fastball as he gets older. He isn’t just a “safe No. 3” type (I tend to dislike them just as much as you), there are things here that suggest he could be an above-average (read: better than a 3) starter.

Of course, if he actually is hurting then we’ll have to see.

by mrkupe on Jun 3, 2025 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder what Gibson's injury...

…will do to the reputation of Mizzou pitchers, and to the potential prospects considering attending Mizzou.

by James F on Jun 3, 2025 7:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mizzou is becoming the next Rice.

Though Baylor is going to fight them to death for that honor.

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by Andy Seiler on Jun 3, 2025 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think these concerns are going to start having....

…a lot more effect on the choices of players.

We already see lots of major league players seeking out employment which will increase their value (pitchers going to San Diego and avoiding the White Sox and Orioles, for example). If draft prospects continue to lose money by playing for programs which don’t work to preserve their arms, I suspect those programs will see recruiting drop significantly.

by James F on Jun 3, 2025 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mier

You know the Twins are gonna be all over Mier. Toolsy high school bat gets the Twins jeans tight.

by hellview on Jun 4, 2025 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mier

Yeah, I think they like him. I’m not that wild about him myself. Would rather have Mitchell or one of the pitchers…I’m not sure Mier will hit.

by John Sickels on Jun 4, 2025 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Mier

I tend to agree with you on the question of whether or not Mier will hit, John. But from the actual Twins perspective, how does the fact that the last two players you took in the first round (coincidently, probably the #1a and 1b prospects in the system) play the same position has Mitchell?

I’m kind of hoping the real Twins are hot on Hobgood. It would be nice to have at least one hard throwing starting pitcher in the system to root for.

by jewscott on Jun 4, 2025 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hobgood

I like Hobgood a lot, and they need FASTBALLS in the system. I agree that with Hicks and Revere in the system, Mitchell might seem superfluous. But on the other hand, there is no guarantee that Hicks and Revere will make it. Could you imagine an outfield with all three of them, assuming they hit? Talk about great defense. :)

For my Shadow Twins, I took Lars Anderson (HS-1B) instead of Parmalee in ’06, Nevin Griffith (HS-RHP) instead of Revere in ’07, and Brett Lawrie instead of Hicks in ’08. All high school guys. . .note that I drafted Lawrie with the idea of using him as an outfielder, not a second baseman as the Brewers are really doing. Mitchell would fit into my Shadow system better than into the real Twins system.

But I also like Hobgood a lot….tough pick for me if they are both there.

by John Sickels on Jun 4, 2025 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Natty thoughts...

Jump in and point out the flaws:

Alex White’s stock is dropping. He’s probably going to be drafted anywhere from 8 to 17… But really, he got a blister in his last start, he had a hamstring problem (happened in practice), etc. - he should be okay long-term. And on talent alone, he’s one of the better pitchers in the draft.

Okay, the Nats are going to take Strasburgh (and sign him).

If they take White @ 10, they could end up with the 2 best pitchers from this draft… Wow!

by pffriberg on Jun 4, 2025 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs