Who's surprising you this year?

by shanepac19 on Jun 10, 2025 1:40 PM EDT Comment 43 comments

Just looking to find out about some under the radar guys who are having a break-out year. I'm thinking about the Mike Aviles type guys who seem to do better than they're supposed to. Or those middle relievers who have been nails. Even guys like Vin Mazzaro who weren't expected to be doing so well just yet. I'm still new to keeping tabs on minor leaguers, so I appreciate any new names.

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Read More: Mike Aviles (SS - KAN), Vin Mazzaro (P - OAK)

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Well

Mike Aviles is doing terrible - I can tell you that….

by Dfarth on Jun 10, 2025 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you can say that again!

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Jun 10, 2025 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who would have thought...

…that a mediocre 27 year old who got lucky for three months wouldnt have been able to repeat it?

The projections I saw for Aviles this year looked like they were made by special ed students. Who didn’t see this coming??

by alskor on Jun 10, 2025 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

People who don't understand...

that there are maybe a few guys in baseball that can maintain a 4% BB-rate and be consistently productive. Those guys are physical freaks, not non-prospects who break into the majors at 27.

by PissedMick on Jun 10, 2025 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait...

are we talking about Mike Aviles or Alexei Ramirez? LOL

Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.

by Boxkutter on Jun 11, 2025 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you saw him completely sucking ass?

i’m sure.

no…most expected him to hit .270 or so. that was reasonable. to completely fall off a cliff wasn’t expected.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Jun 10, 2025 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I saw him compeletely sucking ass

by alskor on Jun 10, 2025 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, "sucking ass" is probably too strong, but I never liked him.

Im also not high on Aviles (29 year old, way overrated)

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/3/24/809443/dynasty-trade-possibility#13382844

Aviles should not be considered

He’s old and nowhere near the same galaxy as the other two, who are legit top prospects/great young players.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/1/30/742301/long-term-draft-potential#11859880

I see a .260ish hitter

which is still very good.

I think youre all setting your expectations sky high for him. I think John’s projections are right on… MAYBE a little low. I could see a little higher SLG, especially playing in KC… something like .265/.315/.415. I’d take that from my shortstop any day… I really think people dont fully appreciate the lack of hitting ability shown by most major league shortstops.

I wasnt calling anyone clueless…

The projections I saw above were ".290" and ".285-.300 range." I consider that overly optimistic. I dont think Aviles will hit near that. In bad years I see a .245-.255 hitter and in a good year he could go .275-.285. I dont think there is a chance in hell he becomes a regular .290 hitter, frankly. That would be spectacular from a SS, and I dont think his minor league resumee supports it – his numbers all have to be taken with a big ARL grain of salt.

Useful major league player. IMHO. The projections above I disagreed with are bordering on perennial All Star shortstop.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/10/3/627769/mike-aviles-player-analysi#9180757

by alskor on Jun 10, 2025 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

aye aye

Sorry, I meant in the minors… Aviles has certainly been disappointing this year, but was a nice surprise last year.

by shanepac19 on Jun 10, 2025 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bobby Parnell

Looking awesome in the Mets bullpen. I thought he’d be worthwhile to have back there…. but he looks like future closer material right now.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 10, 2025 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And he's doing it all

With a BABIP in the high .300s.

by Fanon on Jun 11, 2025 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To get back on topic...

I’m pretty interested in what Tim Collins is doing in high-A for the Jays. The guy’s a 5’7" lefty, and only touches the low-90’s, but he’s got a 50:13 K:BB in 31.2 innings this year. He’ll most likely flame out, but he’s the definition of a surprising middle-reliever so far.

To throw a few more names out there, Brandon Waring, Marc Rzepczynski, and Josh Donaldson are three guys who have made some developments in their games this year.

by PissedMick on Jun 10, 2025 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Latos kinda surprised me...

He was on my watch list, but I didn’t expect him to have made the jump to AA and be dominating at that level (knock on wood). I knew he had the stuff, and the stats he did compile were impressive, but his rapid ascent was unexpected by me anyway.

Poster formerly known as artie

by beastball on Jun 10, 2025 6:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Corey Brown

I’m still not sold on him (strikes out a ton, can’t hit a breaking ball as of last year, and doesn’t walk enough to compensate). That said, he’s handling AA much better than I expected even if he’s not hitting homers like he did in the lower levels.

In the end, I suspect I’ll be right about Brown (Too Borchard-y), but for now he’s been a pleasant surprise.

by thejd44 on Jun 10, 2025 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

his K rate has dropped dramatically

Too soon to tell if this is a permanent thing, but if his K-rate can remain at about 20% like he’s at now (as opposed to the 30% that he had at lower levels last year) he could be a great offensive contributor at CF.

by jibs on Jun 10, 2025 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep. Of course, he also has a .390 BABIP

and a .520 BABIP against LHP. Plus, he’s not hitting for the home run power he hit for last year, though he is walking about the same.

This is why he’s a surprise though. He’s doing the one thing he needed to do, yet he’s still been a little bit lucky, and it still remains to be seen how he’ll fare against better breaking stuff as he progresses.

I’d be a lot more excited about him if he were 2 years younger.

by thejd44 on Jun 10, 2025 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's impressive though

Even though he isn’t hitting as many HRs as last year, his ISO is still just below where it was last year (.244 v. .232) on account of all the doubles he’s been hitting. I don’t know what changed, but I really like what I’ve been seeing.

by aCone419 on Jun 11, 2025 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thomas Neal

Currently in San Jose (A). Just made the Cal League All-Star team. Last year, played in low-A Augusta (SAL) while rehabbing from surgery on his arm, limiting him to 1B/DH in an interesting platoon with uber-prospect Angel Villalona. This year, in LF, he’s demonstrating power and average; and although he’s in a hitter’s league, he plays in a relative pitcher’s park. Currently, he’s 5th in league BA, 6th in league slugging. 21 BB, 41 K. Giants fans are ecstatic, particularly given the organization’s lack of power hitting.

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!

by Lyle on Jun 10, 2025 7:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jenrry Mejia

for showing me two potentially two plus pitches (fastball, changeup) and a potentially a 3rd above average pitch(curveball) considering he was signed for 16,500 by the mets

by Bravesin07 on Jun 10, 2025 8:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bromberg

David Bromberg and Zach Britton are 2 guys that I had on my radar , but have performed even better then I thought

by NYSOX on Jun 10, 2025 8:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nick Noonan

I thought he would start doing well, but he kind of sucks so far. Same with Gillaspie.

I have to say that I’m pleasantly surprised by Tim Alderson. I think people didn’t really respect what he did last year because they didn’t see the projection. But there are a lot of guys in the majors who dominate without a 95 mph heater, and Alderson looks like he has the type of outstanding control to allow his stuff to work on any level.

Neal was mentioned above and we’ve talked about Crawford before.

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Jun 10, 2025 10:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not sure about alderson

when he throws the ball in the zone it’s quite hittible. I was more impressed with Mejia than Alderson when I watched them pitch. Alderson is like a RH Jon Niese.

by Bravesin07 on Jun 10, 2025 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

.926 WHIP so far in AA.

I acknowledge that he doesn’t have the stuff to throw it down the middle and do well. But he has 1 BB in 27 IP so far. That’s no small thing in AA. The hitters know how to hit for the most part.

Alderson at 20 in AA: 0.3 BB/9, career 1.7 BB/9
Niese at 21 in AA: 3.2 BB/9, career 3.2 BB/9

I think the control is the difference.

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Jun 10, 2025 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its weird

I feel like everyone either overrates or underrates Alderson. Very strange.

by alskor on Jun 10, 2025 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s a tough guy to rank because he’s been so successful at a young age without the type of stuff people associate with very good pitchers. I’m not getting my hopes up that he can be Lincecum or something, but I think people underestimate his ceiling simply because he doesn’t throw the fastball 95. Personally, I’d take the guy throwing 88-92 with great placement over the guy throwing 92-95 who doesn’t know where it’s going. Plus, Alderson has a very good curveball.

I’m not saying he should be a top 10 prospect or anything, but the kid is good.

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Jun 10, 2025 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kevin Slowey

has had some success in the majors after a stellar minor league career

by smoooooth on Jun 10, 2025 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm curious

Where would you rank him in your top 100?

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Jun 10, 2025 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Couldnt tell you

I typically pay much more attention to American League prospects. He is very hard to rate.

He was #12 on the CPL - which is a load of crap. He’s obviously not the 12th best prospect nor was he last year. He’s probably not even in my top 12 pitching prospects. Just one of the reasons that list turned out to be something less than good.

BA had him #45. BP had him #60. Law had Alderson at #26.

I would think 20-40 is a good area for him this year IMO. Maybe higher. I think he only has a #3 ceiling, but I feel like people don’t understand what that means around here. That’s really good. Something like the esteem people used to hold Chien Ming Wang in back when he was good. People outside of NY, that is. I think comparable prospects are guys like Jake Arrieta, Michael Bowden and Jeremy Hellickson… Guys without top notch stuff who already know how to pitch and have gotten good/great results. Guys who arent going to be more than #3s but are very likely to be #3s - and soon.

by alskor on Jun 11, 2025 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Sounds about where I’d put him too, and I do agree about the guys like Arrieta and Bowden too. Like you’ve said before, Bowden gets overlooked quite a bit.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Jun 11, 2025 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I find it incredibly hard to believe that there are a dozen better pitching prospects out there. Name them.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 11, 2025 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay...

There was more than a dozen on the two big top 100 lists last year. Im going to throw out names here, not all of which I necessarily think are better than Alderson, but just for the sake of argument will list. Im sure you and maybe someone else will throw a hissy fit, pick a couple guys on this list and start explaining why they arent better than Alderson, but most of these guys have better stuff and/or higher ceilings. I think its clear that saying there at least a dozen pitching prospects better than Alderson isnt a ridiculous claim. Though, given the fact you seemingly already took the fact I would list him no better than #20-40 as an insult, I imagine you’ll still want to bitch and moan.

-Bumgarner
-Feliz
-Matusz
-Tillman
-Arrieta
-Chacin
-W. Davis
-Bowden
-Carrasco
-J. Zimmerman
-E. Martin
-J. Parker
-J. McDonald

maybe (many of whom have higher ceilings and better stuff than Alderson):
-Reckling
-Rondon
-Ynoa
-Juan Ramirez
-M. Perez
-Mazzaro
-Matt Moore
-Tazawa
-J. Walden
-C. Kelly

and if theyre still prospects:
-Price
-Hanson
-Holland
-Cecil
-Cahill
-Porcello
-B. Anderson

by alskor on Jun 11, 2025 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

None of this

should be taken as an insult to Alderson, fwiw

by alskor on Jun 11, 2025 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope your basing that off multiple games

because coming to that type of conclusion on a small sample size is not a very good approach

by superk1ng on Jun 11, 2025 4:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm thoroughly enjoying the Darren O'Day experience in Texas, so far.

And to think, he was a waiver claim. Thank you Mets!

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by Maximilian on Jun 11, 2025 1:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He was a rule V

And wasn’t fooling anyone with the Mets. I’m sure the Mets would have liked it if he’d passed waivers so he could get some minor league time.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 11, 2025 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

it’s just comforting to know that a pitcher can stick here in Texas and more than hold their own. The notion that pitchers come here to die is slowly but surely fading.

Rock Flag & Eagle Radio: Thursdays 10 PM - 1 AM on FM 88.7 The Choice
"Computers can’t measure the size of a man’s heart."
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by Maximilian on Jun 11, 2025 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If by "get some minor league time"

You mean “with the Angels”.

by Fanon on Jun 11, 2025 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, depending on whether they accepted him back

I’m certain if he’d passed waivers, the Mets would have tried to retain him.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 12, 2025 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland SS prospect Lonnie Chisenhall

I knew he was solid or even good.

But Not this great, he looks like the next Troy Tulowitzki or something…

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 11, 2025 6:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree on Chisenhall

He’s awesome… but he’s a 3B now.

by alskor on Jun 11, 2025 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nolan Reimold

Who would have expected Nolan Reimold to be having a better freshman season than teammate Wieters? Shoot, who woulda expected Reimold to have the most homeruns for a rookie in the AL?

by QBsIllest1 on Jun 12, 2025 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Brandon Crawford

He has hit a ton better as a pro than he did in college. Granted, AA has brought him back to earth a bit, but still he’s had an awfully impressive first half of the year for a guy widely considered overrated going into last year’s draft.

Kinda makes me wonder if Grant Green will follow the same path…..

by guru4u on Jun 12, 2025 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Brett Lawrie

Thought he’d be good, but not this good (ISOP of .209, K rate of 15.7%, BB rate of 9.7% with some steals too)

Rondon - maintaining the higher strike out rate he set last year, walking even less batters for a K/BB over 4. He looks to me like a potential ace.

Delta Cleary - Wasn’t expecting much this year, but am kind of impressed by the increased power, and like that he’s keeping his strikeouts down even though he still isn’t walking at all. Except for the walk rate, his stats look very similar to what Dexter Fowler did at the same level, and Fowler was a year older than Cleary is now.

Chris Tillman - He’s cut his walks down by a third, while striking out more batters than ever. He has the lowest FIP of any pitcher in the league as a 21 year old in AAA. How he hasn’t been promoted yet is beyond me

Jordan Lyles - has just been freakishly good. He’s not that far from Bumgarner territory

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by OldProspects on Jun 12, 2025 7:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs