Chris Carter at AA Midland

by JPShark on Jun 14, 2025 1:47 PM EDT Comment 14 comments

I wanted to get some "updated" opinions on Oakland 1B prospect Chris Carter. Last season there was a lot of discussions about this guy and what type of player he might become. I've heard comp's from Ryan Howard to Russell Branyan and everything inbetween. For the most part it sounds like many people think because of the high K rate he has shown over his professional career, and especially last year in the CAL league, that he will end up a low average, solid power guy at best. It also seems that these opinions of Carter change year to year as I recall people being quite high on him after his 2007 SAL league season where he batted .291/.383/.522 with 25 HR and 93 RBI in 126 games. That season he had 112 K's in 467 AB's so it was obvious he struck out his fair share, but last season he K'd 156 times in just 39 more AB's and despite the huge power numbers he put up, many soured on him quite a bit as a result of the jump in K's.

This year, in his age 22 season at AA Midland he is hitting .301/.405/.515 with 9 HR and 46 RBI through 60 games. As expected with a departure from the CAL league his HR numbers have taken a dip, but with his 22 doubles its still obvious the guy has good power but may have changed his approach a little to raise his BA and cut down on his K rate. It seems to be working for Carter as his average is up quite a bit, and he has cut his K rate down with 57 K's in 239 AB's. His walk rate is also up as coming into today he already has 38 on the year. I personally expect him to start hitting for a little more power as we get deeper into summer and warmer weather, and if he maintains the rest of his numbers this will translate into quite a nice, and suprising (to many) season for the young man.

So my question to everyone is has Carter's season thus far increased his stock as a prospect?? If he is able to maintain his higher average, K rate and BB rate throughout the season and comes out with a slash line of something like .295/.400/.530 does he jump into top 50, or even top 25 territory? Obviously there are still questions about his defensive ability, but he has been playing 1B almost exclusively this season and may have found a defensive home there where he can turn himself into at least an average defender. What are peoples thoughts on him at this stage in the season??

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i just drafted carter in my sim league

i knew about pretty much all of what you said, but i think his success really comes down to a few things.

if his value becomes solely dependent on his power, he needs to get better at hitting for power. what i mean is, if he’s gonna hit .230 with a .330 OBP, he’s gonna need to slug around .550 to be worth holding. he can do this, but he’s not there yet (39 HRs in the CAL, notwithstanding).

if he can hit .270 or .280, he’s got a chance at being one of the most valuable power hitters in baseball. he’s got good enough plate discipline that this is attainable, and he’s got the physical power potential to really pound the AL west with a robust potential line of .280/.380/.600. this is probably his absolute peak.

there’s also some importance in him keeping his weight down. to use ryan howard as a comp, carter can be a pretty valuable player while playing 25-30 lbs above where he should be, but if he stays around 220, he’ll add enough defensive value and enough value as a baserunner (though probably not as a basestealer) that he’d be a pretty great value even if his bat doesn’t ever hit that peak line.

human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

by variablesdont on Jun 14, 2025 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Carter's weight

Carter is a big guy, but I was under the impression he was more young Frank Thomas than Prince Fielder in terms of build. If so, he shouldn’t have to work as hard as Fielder or Howard to keep the weight in check. Carter, like Thomas, appears to be just a big, strong guy and not a big, kinda fat guy. I think this is why the A’s have tried him at other spots on the field, though that appears to have not worked out.

by thejd44 on Jun 14, 2025 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's just a naturally big dude

I dont think anyone would call him fat. Nor have I heard his weight mentioned as an issue before.

His weight is appropriate, if you ask me.

by alskor on Jun 14, 2025 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keith Lieppmann

The Athletics farm director likened him to a young Jermaine Dye. Obviously, he’s going to homer for his own guys, but I think that is a good comp. He said he was a good athlete that held his own in LF last year.

by sdbaseballfan on Jun 14, 2025 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ive read several reports on his defense

he has athleticism,but as a big guy looks a bit clumsy out there with his movements. Also he showed a solid arm in RF, HWB coach said he had the ability eventually to play an above avg 1b.So i dont think he’s some stiff out there, he might just not have the extended experience out there. I would be curious to see if he’d be any worse defensively than a wallace at 3b.

by Asfan4ever723 on Jun 14, 2025 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defensive movements

When I saw Chris play at third base in the Cal League playoffs last season, his movements at third did indeed seem clumsy, leading me to believe he would wind up at first base.

by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2025 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

RF would be his best bet, especially for our team. He’s not slow, is athletic, has a good arm, and looked good according to scouts out there last season.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Jun 14, 2025 8:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

RF might be sean doolittle's spot

of course this would mean at least one of buck/sweeney/cunningham fails to progress, corey brown being a legit CF option, and barton also not being considered a 1b option.

if barton remains their long term 1b option, doolittle and others split time in rf.

by Asfan4ever723 on Jun 14, 2025 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doolittle is supposed to be a fantastic defensive 1Bman

So why move him?

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Jun 14, 2025 11:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

because he's also proven to be a good RF

since the AFL. they had been playing him majority in the OF with barton at 1b in AAA unyil he got injured

by Asfan4ever723 on Jun 14, 2025 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, he is moving up

In answer to the original question I think the fact that he has been able to significantly improve his contact percentage as he has moved up to AA, and that his contact percentages have been improving month over month even as his power output has also been improving month over month and he continues to lead his league in walks are all big positives.

He was #51 on the community list this offseason- a very quick count of the 50 ahead of him found 15 or so at a minimum who will graduate off the list and some more who are now clearly behind him. While others will, of course leap frog, I wouldn’t be surprised if we peg him closer to 25 than 50 on the next list , which I suspect will be his last, if he keeps doing what he has been doing.

by Dalman on Jun 15, 2025 1:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

IMHO

He’s top 25 right now. At least.

Some of those above him HE has already leapfrogged.

Imagine you never heard about Chris Carter until today. Look at his statistical profile. Now look at his tools and scouting reports. He looks awesome.

by alskor on Jun 15, 2025 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs