Travis Snider Community Projection
by John Sickels
on Mar 17, 2026 5:00 PM EDT
35 comments
Next up on the Community Projection list, we have Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider.
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Games
At-bats
Hits
Batting average (make sure the math works)
Runs scored
Doubles
Triples
Homers
RBI
Walks
Strikeouts
Steals
Caught Stealing
Rookie of the Year: Yes or No?
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Games - 136
At-bats - 521
Hits - 143
Batting average (make sure the math works) - .274
Runs scored - 71
Doubles - 33
Triples - 1
Homers - 17
RBI - 73
Walks - 49
Strikeouts - 159
Steals - 1
Caught Stealing - 1
Rookie of the Year: No, gets beat by Wieters, gets 2nd ahead of price.
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by gore51 on
Mar 17, 2026 5:06 PM EDT
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Hmm
BABIP set at .362 given your numbers….. Do people even test out there entire numbers before they post them or just say “I think he will hit .XXX” and then figure out how many hits that will take?
by dougdirt on
Mar 17, 2026 5:32 PM EDT
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Well, last season his BABIP in ML was around .415 (I think I did my math right), and his at AA (where he was most season) was around .340. Now, I expect nowhere near .415, but I do expect better than .340, solely because 1. I am a little biased because I have a man-crush on him. and 2. I think he will continue improving, even at the ML level. This guy has got a great future in front of him (IMO).
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by gore51 on
Mar 17, 2026 10:24 PM EDT
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Travis Snider
Games – 122
At-bats – 418
Hits – 122
Batting average (make sure the math works) – .292
Runs scored – 65
Doubles – 29
Triples – 1
Homers – 14
RBI – 78
Walks – 39
Strikeouts – 138
Steals – 2
Caught Stealing – 1
Rookie of the Year: Nope, Matt Laporta steals it.
by Summa Slugga on
Mar 17, 2026 5:22 PM EDT
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Wow
Did you even take into consideration that you have his BABIP set at .401 for a fat slow guy?
by dougdirt on
Mar 17, 2026 5:30 PM EDT
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Fat and Slow?
What does a fat slow guy have to do with BABIP????
by Summa Slugga on
Mar 17, 2026 5:52 PM EDT
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A lot
He isn’t going to get an extra boost by legging out 4-5 infield hits like a fast guy would. No one posts a BABIP of .400+ over a full season, much less guys without wheels just because its very difficult to be that lucky, much less that lucky when you aren’t racking up double digit infield singles.
by dougdirt on
Mar 17, 2026 6:08 PM EDT
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Look at the Numbers
You do realize that his minor league BABIP was .421 and in a brief call-up he posted a .440 BABIP. Also saying because he is slow he can’t have a high BABIP is ridiculous as well, Chipper Jones lead the league in hitting last year and he was not beating out grounders in the infield. Look into peoples actual numbers and back up you comments with some form of coherent logic before you go and pan everyone’s projections.
by SoCal760 on
Mar 19, 2026 12:44 PM EDT
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-1
read his post below
“But since 1960 there have been over 15000 players get 150 or more at bats in a season. 19 of them have had a .400+ BABIP. Thats basically the luck Snider is going to have to have to hit .290. The odds are astronomical that it happens.”
19 out of more than 15,000.
i am hardly a stats guy, but the stats are all you need here. the chances of him even being a .350 BABIP guy is absurdly low. Snider is a nice prospect, but he’s not some uber god that’s going to defy what history tells us he’s likely to do.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Mar 20, 2026 3:48 AM EDT
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Coherent logic?
I stated my case fairly well. Less than one tenth of a percent of major leaguers since 1960 have been able to post a BABIP over .400 for even 150 at bats, much less more than that. Its simply an extreme statistical outlier and the odds of it happening for a given player is simply astronomical.
As for Chipper Jones, you are correct, he had a .383 BABIP last season and he wasn’t beating out infield hits. Chipper Jones .383 BABIP ranks as the one of the 100 highest BABIP seasons since 1960 of players with 150 at bats (again, we are talking over 15,000 seasons here).
The reason some guys have a BABIP so high in the minors is just that they are simply better than the competition. When people get to the majors, thats not the case. There is a reason that hitting .300 in the majors is an accomplishment worth noting, but there are over a hundred guys that do it in the minors every year and its no big deal.
by dougdirt on
Mar 21, 2026 3:47 AM EDT
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Dude can hit
If there is any rookie who can hit for average its Travis Snider. Look at his number is the minors and even last year, he is a .300 hitter.
by Summa Slugga on
Mar 17, 2026 6:39 PM EDT
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Minor Leagues
Are different from the majors. Projecting a major league batting average by looking at a minor league batting average is going to lead you awry nearly every time. They just don’t translate. Guys can consistently carry .350+ BABIPs in the minors because the talent level isn’t even. In the majors, the talent level is even and its why guys struggle to consistently have a BABIP over .310 and its precisely the reason Travis Snider will be lucky to hit .275 unless he dramatically reduces the amount of times he strikes out.
by dougdirt on
Mar 17, 2026 6:53 PM EDT
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i am looking at that
he spent most of the time in AA (362 ABs) and hit .262. that’s a far cry from .300 and at a much lower level.
you may argue that he hit .300 in the bigs last year but that was a very small sample size (73 ABs copmared to 362 in AA). I don’t think you have a leg to stand on in this disagreement.
by son.of.sourman on
Mar 17, 2026 6:58 PM EDT
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that said
i love this kid and he’s still very young for the level he is playing iat
by son.of.sourman on
Mar 17, 2026 6:58 PM EDT
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Time will tell..........
come back to me in late september and tell me that you are shocked he hit .290!!!!
by Summa Slugga on
Mar 17, 2026 7:12 PM EDT
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Time will tell
But since 1960 there have been over 15000 players get 150 or more at bats in a season. 19 of them have had a .400+ BABIP. Thats basically the luck Snider is going to have to have to hit .290. The odds are astronomical that it happens.
by dougdirt on
Mar 17, 2026 7:19 PM EDT
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Snider
Games - 145
At-bats - 531
Hits - 129
Batting average (make sure the math works) - .242
Runs scored - 72
Doubles - 27
Triples - 0
Homers - 21
RBI - 79
Walks - 60
Strikeouts - 156
Steals - 1
Caught Stealing - 2
Rookie of the Year: Yes or No? No
Overall Numbers
PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SF SH AVG OBP SLG BABIP
600 531 129 27 0 21 60 156 5 3 1 .243 .324 .412 .303
by dougdirt on
Mar 17, 2026 5:29 PM EDT
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Snider
Games 135
At-bats 495
Hits 129
Batting average .260
Runs scored 75
Doubles 35
Triples 1
Homers 20
RBI 75
Walks 60
Strikeouts 110
Steals 3
Caught Stealing 4
Rookie of the Year: Yes or No? No.
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on
Mar 17, 2026 8:15 PM EDT
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ROY
Games 150
At-bats 561
Hits 160
Batting average .285
Runs scored 87
Doubles 43
Triples 1
Homers 26
RBI 100
Walks 64
Strikeouts 123
Steals 2
Caught Stealing 2
Rookie of the Year: Yes
line: .285/.358/.504
great fantasy player, darn good hitter, great future.
by METSMETSMETS on
Mar 17, 2026 9:01 PM EDT
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Projection
Project
Games 138
At-bats 488
Hits 127
Batting average (make sure the math works) .262
Runs scored 62
Doubles 27
Triples 1
Homers 19
RBI 67
Walks 35
Strikeouts 121
Steals 1
Caught Stealing 2
Rookie of the Year: Yes or No? No
by MHD on
Mar 18, 2026 1:10 AM EDT
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re: snider
“fat slow guy” can really hit
games: 154
AB: 585
H: 167
BA: .285
R: 68
2b: 32
3b: 1
HR: 18
RBI: 77
BB: 76
SO: 108
SB: 5
CS: 2
rookie of the year: NO, Wieters or Price will win it
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on
Mar 18, 2026 3:24 AM EDT
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I'll give this a try
Games – 157
At-bats – 591
Hits – 155
Batting average (make sure the math works) – .262
Runs scored – 73
Doubles – 34
Triples – 0
Homers – 24
RBI – 79
Walks – 61
Strikeouts – 144
Steals – 1
Caught Stealing – 1
Rookie of the Year: Not a chance.
A little bit of a misnomer, for you will find no solace here.
by solace on
Mar 18, 2026 9:32 AM EDT
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Not a chance?
With the numbers you are predicting for him, I would think his chance of winning it is at least fairly possible, though I do expect it to go to Wieters.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on
Mar 18, 2026 10:15 AM EDT
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After posting
I realized I was too high on the doubles, but you can’t edit your posts, as far as I know. Even so, I don’t think he has a chance unless he’s way better than any other candidate mostly because he’s in Toronto.
A little bit of a misnomer, for you will find no solace here.
by solace on
Mar 18, 2026 12:17 PM EDT
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Snider
Games – 137
At-bats – 451
Hits – 121
Batting average (make sure the math works) – .268
Runs scored – 55
Doubles – 25
Triples – 1
Homers – 16
RBI – 65
Walks – 51
Strikeouts – 124
Steals – 1
Caught Stealing – 1
Rookie of the Year: Nope
by JohnBench5 on
Mar 18, 2026 9:37 AM EDT
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Snider
Games - 129
At-bats - 421
Hits - 113
Batting average (make sure the math works) - .268
Runs scored - 46
Doubles - 21
Triples - 0
Homers - 16
RBI - 55
Walks - 31
Strikeouts - 97
Steals - 2
Caught Stealing - 2
Rookie of the Year: No.
by seabass on
Mar 18, 2026 1:01 PM EDT
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re: yeah oops
I just realized that, but I don’t think he’s going to strike out a ton either. I don’t think 77 walks is too much out of the realm of possibilities; just remember the lineup he bats in. Is Vernon Wells the good old Wells before the contract? etc.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on
Mar 18, 2026 6:54 PM EDT
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re: On my walks
I was counting the number of IBB…but thanks for pointing it out!
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on
Mar 18, 2026 6:54 PM EDT
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.247/.330/.443
Games: 96
AB: 336
Hits: 83
BA: .247
Runs: 43
Doubles: 18
Triples: 0
Homers: 16
RBIS: 69
K: 126
steals: 0
cs: 0
I think Snider struggles with the strike zone and pressure of the middle of the order to start the year leading to a high whiff rate, this leads to him taking too many pitches and gets some good walk numbers but more strikeouts as well. I think they send him down for a while and then he comes back with a better approach and less pressure and secures his spot for 2010
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on
Mar 19, 2026 4:37 AM EDT
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...
He’s not slated to start in the middle of the order with some people saying Cito will bat him 8th or 9th to keep the pressure off him. Wells/Rios/Rolen (?) will make up the middle of the order followed by Overbay, Lind then it will be Barajas or Snider.
by bunner on
Mar 20, 2026 8:29 AM EDT
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