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Weekend Discussion: Most Surprising Prospects

It is a very busy weekend around here. I'm in Des Moines with my mom, who is having a minor medical procedure and needs me around to help for a day or two. Jeri, the kids, her parents and family, and various friends we have drafted for slave labor purposes, are in Lawrence handling Book Shipping Day.

To keep you busy this weekend while we hold things down on our various fronts, here is a discussion question.

What prospects in the last five years have MOST SURPRISED YOU in a positive way?  Guys coming out of nowhere, or guys you thought were overrated who turned out to be really good?  And what made this player such a positive surprise to you? Was there something in his profile that you just missed? Or has his major league success been totally out of context with what he did in the minors?

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Denard Span

No one saw that production coming out of him last year. He’s been a hard worker, but expectations were quite low. I was rooting for him to be the starter out of spring training only to allow the Twins to get Gomez some more minor league at-bats. His call-up when the Twins needed him and his performance thereafter was one of the main factors the Twins were able to compete for the AL Central title last year.

He’s likely to regress this year, but if he can at least maintain last year’s on base pct, he should stick. His defense is incredible.

by simsypoo on Feb 6, 2026 12:36 PM EST reply actions  

ditto

I thought he was destined to be a fourth outfielder type. I definitely didn’t see this coming. I do think some regression will happen but he’s capable of being a good centerfielder for a long time. Span and Gomez together cover so much ground. It’s a lot of fun watching them.

by jwaltz on Feb 6, 2026 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

But as a 1st rounder...

He shouldn’t have been a surprise. I would argue he was a disapointment until recently, not a pleasant surprise (sorry to pick nits).

by pffriberg on Feb 6, 2026 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

1 vote...

for no regression from Span. His peripherals were excellent as well as his results. He’s a damn good player who needed eye surgery.

by slamcactus on Feb 8, 2026 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Cory Wade

He came out of nowhere last year.

by kinbote on Feb 6, 2026 12:44 PM EST reply actions  

He cam efrom Somewhere

From Indy, Always been a stud Athlete, and in college (Kentucky Weslyan) was throwing 93, has great movement, and even better control. Now that he’s in the show, more of a 89-91 type guy, good duece, and doesn’t walk people. Hopefully another good year, and a very long career for Cory Wade.

by Jax5 on Feb 6, 2026 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Where in Des Moines?

John - What side of town? Just curious…

by StevenKerr on Feb 6, 2026 12:45 PM EST reply actions  

where in Des Moines?

Beaverdale area

John's Wife and Email Secretary

by mssickels on Feb 8, 2026 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

White Sox Pitchers

I had all but written off Danks and Floyd until this year.

by HectorLuna on Feb 6, 2026 1:04 PM EST reply actions  

+1

by Dingbat Charlie on Feb 6, 2026 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

...but they both

…were top draft picks, how can we be surprised…

by pffriberg on Feb 6, 2026 7:24 PM EST up reply actions  

VERY true

But should we be surprised when they are successful? I don’t know you’re fave team, but let’s (for kicks and giggles) say it’s the St. Louis Cardinals (picking a team in the middle of the country). In the last draft they took Brett Wallace (did I get that name right) from Arizona St. in the first round. Should we expect him to succeed or be surprised if he succeeds? If we’re surprised then I think it speaks to a distrust of our team’s evaluation ability. Obviously not all 1st round picks work out (trust me, I know, I’m a Padres fan), but still I don’t think you can be suprised when the top rated guys do succeed.

by pffriberg on Feb 7, 2026 12:07 AM EST up reply actions  

But you're asking a question as a fan

While I think John is asking as an analyst. It is entirely reasonable for analysts to be more or less optimistic about the various players drafted in the first round

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by OldProspects on Feb 7, 2026 6:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have proven that 1st round pitchers are in NO WAY a sure thing.

That is all.

I agree - Noonan is as valuable as a dead horse… and he too should be beaten by some dude in a top hat who looks like he’s holding his junk.

by cool hand Charlie on Feb 9, 2026 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Danks was

still pretty young and was always young for his level in the minors. He was written off way to fast

by Rajah358 on Feb 7, 2026 12:35 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he was written off..

He just didn’t go through the minors at a Justin Upton pace so a lot of casual observers forgot about him…

by pffriberg on Feb 8, 2026 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Geovany Soto...

Also James Shields. I followed him as a rookie and looking at his minor league #’s and scouting reports I just didnt see the steps forward he has made the last two years.

by tt68 on Feb 6, 2026 1:21 PM EST reply actions  

RE

I’ll second Soto. He had a good reputation behind the plate and profiled as a passable backup catcher, but his offensive output has been a pleasant surprise.

by Outshined_One on Feb 6, 2026 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

All Mets fans

would probably agree on Daniel Murphy, though he still has a lot to prove. A lot of people were down on Pelfrey too before he broke out, and Maine was acquired from BAL after his prospect status had fallen by the wayside. His breakout was a nice surprise back in 2006 as well. And of course we all know the story of Jose Reyes going from a .300 OBP in 2005 to a .350 in 2006 and never looking back.

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 6, 2026 1:57 PM EST reply actions  

+1 on Maine

That’s who I thought of as well.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 6, 2026 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Maine is a lot like Pelf

In that he was a big time prospect in Baltimore, but never really made it in the majors until he was traded. He wasn’t a Top 10 draft pick like Pelfrey, but in 2004 he Sickels had him as the 18th best prospect overall and THT had him at 24th. He struggled in AAA a bit and in his short stints with the O’s, but he wasn’t nearly as big a surprise a I once thought (I wasn’t too big on baseball forums or prospect evaluations back in 2006). I’ve also heard some compare Brad Holt to Maine, which I think is very fair.

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 6, 2026 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

For me

Jayson Werth
Ryan Doumit
Carlos Quentin

Justin Duchsherer
Matt Garza

by sagecoll on Feb 6, 2026 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

Quentin

I had written him off prior to this past season. I felt that injuries would prevent him from getting the extended, uninterrupted playing time he would need to adjust properly.

by mentalpowers on Feb 6, 2026 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Han Ram

Hanley Ramirez, for being mediocre in the minors, to being rushed to the majors, and raking immediately. Didn’t see that one coming.

Also Denard Span, Thought he was a 5th OF type, ended up being a viable starter.

by abebopmana on Feb 6, 2026 2:10 PM EST reply actions  

+1

I don’t think anyone expected HanRam to become the superstar he is.

by byronlhsdrmr on Feb 6, 2026 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

boston did

they were all over him, loved him when he was in the minors

but they wanted beckett BAD

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 7, 2026 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree on Ramirez

only RedSox fans liked him at all when he was in the minors. Then he was dealt to the Marlins, and they immidiately changed their tune and said that they hated him all along, that he sucked, and was overrrated, but because he was their player, didn’t say anything.

The all of a sudden he proves the scouts right and becomes a superstar by actually trying at the MLB level instead of coasting like in the minors.

Dogfood Gangstas
Canned or Dry,
We Neva Die.

by Zonis on Feb 6, 2026 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

by Rob Castellano on Feb 6, 2026 6:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Andy Sonnanstine

I was much of the same opinion as John, where I thought his finesse style wouldn’t hold up in the majors. After seeing him in Montgomery in 2006, I came away very underwhelmed. However, it seems he’s done quite well for himself, even with that upper-80s fastball.

Mike Grouse Interview - Rangers' Midwest Cross Checker

by Andy Seiler on Feb 6, 2026 2:21 PM EST reply actions  

Derek Lowe

I was always surprised that Lowe became such a durable starter after years in the bullpen.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Feb 6, 2026 2:27 PM EST reply actions  

Ricky Nolasco & Jhonny Peralta

Nolasco surprised me how much he improved. I either underrated his breaking ball or it got a lot better.

Peralta’s bat developed pretty quickly. I didn’t expect him to hit as much as he has.

by acerimusdux on Feb 6, 2026 2:30 PM EST reply actions  

Dan Haren

I thought Dan Haren would be a stud, the way he pitched in the playoffs in ’04, but he never really made any prospect lists and the talk of the Mulder deal was Daric Barton.

Josh Kinney wrestled a bear once.

by mateodh on Feb 6, 2026 2:34 PM EST reply actions  

+1

Didn’t see him becoming so dominant.

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 7, 2026 2:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Brad Zeigler

I thought he was a likable journeyman who may get 50 innings in the majors over his career as roster filler. Then he sets a record for consecutive scoreless innings to start a career. He’ll probably settle somewhere in between, but even the A’s have to consider his emergence a surprise bonus.

by kirbyk on Feb 6, 2026 3:36 PM EST reply actions  

+1

Dogfood Gangstas
Canned or Dry,
We Neva Die.

by Zonis on Feb 6, 2026 6:26 PM EST up reply actions  

David Freese

I remember when the Padres drafted him in the 9th round in 2006. He simply destroyed SS-A ball that summer and really hasn’t looked back. Despite skipping AA and struggling for the first couple months in AAA, he rebounded to hit 307/.361/.550 for Memphis last year. His career minor league line is .307/.385/.527…

I talked to someone who worked for the Lake Elsinore Storm while he played there who said he was better defensively than Chase Headley…

I fear he’ll get stuck/miscast as a 4-A guy, but I think if given a shot, he’ll produce.

by pffriberg on Feb 6, 2026 3:59 PM EST reply actions  

Chris Duncan

when he came up and mashed. I know he’s been hurt quite a bit since then - but he’s a better major leaguer than minor leaguer. I don’t know if he’ll ever be anything again, but he really surprised me. Big, clumsy looking, not much of an athlete. He’s got some pop, though.

by Toddius on Feb 6, 2026 4:26 PM EST reply actions  

Nate McLouth

The speed and the batting eye were always there, but his 26 home runs last year are more than he hit between 2003-2005 combined.

Not to mention his phenomenal Gold Glove defense (I say in my best sarcastic tone) :-)

by jseiner on Feb 6, 2026 4:26 PM EST reply actions  

Jorge Posada

As a Yankees fan, I was not expecting him to turn into such a good offensive player.

I ended up passing on him in my draft because I thought he was going to be an average offensive catcher. I will stick with the Yanks and say that nobody saw Mariano Rivera coming. I remember watching him in his first ML start and he was pretty average, but once he got moved to the pen, everything changed.

I would also mention Robinson Cano (before last years performance that is). I’m interested to see what kind of year he has.

by The Scout on Feb 6, 2026 4:40 PM EST reply actions  

James Shields

With all the hyped talent coming through the Tampa system, and all the far more hyped pitching prospects in baseball, who knew that Shields would turn out to be such a strong starting pitcher? And in the AL East, no less.

by aap212 on Feb 6, 2026 5:00 PM EST reply actions  

Dan Uggla

he more or less came out of nowhere. Not sure he was on a lot of people’s radar screens.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Feb 6, 2026 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

good call

pretty much anyone who could make this list and was a Rule 5 guy is solid.

Johan Santana, though he’s not really a “last five years” guy, but still looked too hittable in the minors

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Feb 6, 2026 6:00 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

BA’s 2006 book (and their sentiment was probably similar to most sources at the time) had Uggla labeled as essentially an organizational player - a gamer with no standout tools that might have have a big league future as a utility player. He had toiled in the minors for a while with no real breakout performances until his ML career started, so he was definitely a big surprise, turning into one of the league’s premier offensive second basemen.

by Grudyfan on Feb 6, 2026 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

haha

yeah I’d call 30 homer power in the majors a “standout tool”

I agree - Noonan is as valuable as a dead horse… and he too should be beaten by some dude in a top hat who looks like he’s holding his junk.

by cool hand Charlie on Feb 6, 2026 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

well now...yes

clearly

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 7, 2026 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

It's pretty amazing

to see the transformation of his statistical profile. In 2006, Uggla was 26 years old having not played above AA yet (He was Florida’s #29 prospect at the time) and some decent seasons, like in ’03 when he hit .290/.355/.504, but it was as a 23-year old in the Cal league.

In 2099 minor league at-bats (again, he was 25 in repeating AA when he was picked up in the rule V draft), Uggla hit 64 career homers with a .276/.347/.443 line.

In 1774 ML at-bats, Uggla has already hit 90 homers with a .262/.341/.490 line, pretty amazing considering he skipped AAA and was actually able to maintain or improve all of his component ratios upon making the bigs.

by Grudyfan on Feb 7, 2026 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

not even a close call

not for me. Many of the other names I’ve seen here were either high draft picks and/or had established track records of minor league performance before suceeding in the majors. Of the handful of names left over none compare with Uggla’s success in the majors compared to his ho-hum minor league career. Santana, for sure, but he’s out of the time frame of this question.

by beezlebufo on Feb 7, 2026 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Boy, is this one easy!

Dustin Pedroia! Am I embarrassed or what?

by sdtribefan on Feb 6, 2026 5:35 PM EST reply actions  

Derek Holland

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Feb 6, 2026 6:13 PM EST reply actions  

His reputation

precedes him. He hasn’t quite done anything in the majors… yet. :)

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year

by RangerMad on Feb 7, 2026 1:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Mike Aviles

It was just one year so far but no one really saw that coming.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 6, 2026 6:32 PM EST reply actions  

Joakim Soria also

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 6, 2026 6:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm going to have to go with

The guy who was out of baseball for four years, his highest level being AA, to comeback in his second full season to hit 32 home runs and 120 rbi. Josh Hamilton.

by phightins09 on Feb 6, 2026 6:57 PM EST reply actions  

But nobody ever doubted his talent

It was other things that made it surprising

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by OldProspects on Feb 7, 2026 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

The surprising thing about Josh isn’t that he’s a surprising prospect, it’s that he managed to clean up, get back in baseball shape (which he was quite out of) and play again. Had Josh not gotten injured and fallen into addiction, he could have been doing this 6-7 years ago.

by Cormican on Feb 9, 2026 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Raul Ibanez

Nothing in his minor league career (or first stint with the Mariners) suggested he would be this good for this length of time.

by firpo22 on Feb 6, 2026 6:59 PM EST reply actions  

Rick Ankiel

If what he did, did not surprise you then nothing has

Yadi is my hero

by Big Phil on Feb 6, 2026 7:44 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Rick Ankiel

is the natural. I wasn’t surprised.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Feb 9, 2026 3:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Calvin Pickering

I was totally waiting for him to drop a 1.100 OPS on the league.

by mkvallely on Feb 6, 2026 8:17 PM EST reply actions  

my bad

I guess Calvin didn’t quite qualify as a positive surprise. He was really close though.

by mkvallely on Feb 7, 2026 2:38 AM EST up reply actions  

What do people think about Kila Ka’aihue?

37 home runs in 401 at-bats, batting .314 and collecting 104 walks compared to only 67 strikeouts before being called up. Then in 21 ABs in the majors: .286 1HR, 3BB, 2K.
His prior minor league performance didn’t suggest this. Is this guy for real? Or just an out-of-nowhere streak that’s way above his actual ability (is that even possible)?

by Jihan1 on Feb 6, 2026 10:27 PM EST reply actions  

re: kila

i don’t think he’s THAT good, but he could be an average first baseman or maybe better in a peak year. KG compared him to Carlos Pena i think, minus the obscenely good year he had in ’07. not bad, plus a little BA and minus a little power.

this year will tell us more. he did come way out of nowhere this year. he said he was finally healthy this year, partially thanks to a little weight loss to take some pressure off teh knees that were giving him trouble.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 6, 2026 10:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Bobby Jenks

I thought he would end up being just another big arm that never put it all together at the major league level.

by garry maddox on Feb 6, 2026 11:10 PM EST reply actions  

+1

by richieabernathy on Feb 6, 2026 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Youk

took him a while to get a legit shot

by Rajah358 on Feb 7, 2026 12:37 AM EST reply actions  

Pedroia

Wow (even though his numbers are inflated by his home park and people usually don’t pay enough attention to his defense)

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

Your 2009 Opening Day starter at second base*: Eugenio Velez
*For the Fresno Grizzlies

by baetown415 on Feb 7, 2026 4:18 AM EST reply actions  

Jose Reyes

Even though he was young his first few seasons, I saw his inability to draw a walk as a HUGE problem and figured he would always be a high-average, meh-power guy with no plate discipline. Then, somehow, he doubled his walk totals from ‘05 to ’06 (after walking FIVE TIMES in 220 ABs in 2004) without his K rate going up. He’s averaged 65 walks over the past three seasons, and is now one of the best all-around shortstops in baseball. I never would’ve guessed he’d be so good offensively (so soon, anyway) after his 2003-05 seasons.

by thejd44 on Feb 7, 2026 5:12 AM EST reply actions  

Fairly Stupid Question

How much hype did Granderson get when coming up through the Detroit system? Was he ever ranked that highly?

by David Tokarz on Feb 7, 2026 5:40 AM EST reply actions  

Granderson

In 2005, BA had Granderson rated as Detroit’s top prospect, but the funny thing is that if you read prospect profiles on him in his time in the minors, scouts didn’t seem high on his athleticism at the time, proclaiming he had “ML average speed”. Is it just me, or does Granderson seem to be a bit faster than the average major league player?

by Grudyfan on Feb 7, 2026 3:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, and...

He was rated as being a “tweener” defensively, unlikely to hit enough for a corner, nor be able to cover CF defensively. While BA had him atop the Tigers system that on year, a) it was a learn prospect year in Detroit, and b) he was much lower previously.

by BobbyMac on Feb 8, 2026 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Jesse Carlson

For those Bluejays fans out there. He really came out of nowhere to be a major bullpen arm last season. He was a prospect early in the 00`s.

AWmusic

Sport Chit Chat

by achengy on Feb 7, 2026 7:51 AM EST reply actions  

+1

Everytime you use RBI as anything other than an indicator of where a guy is hitting in his team's lineup, another cute snuggly animal dies a horrible death.
- PT

by LBDirtbags on Feb 10, 2026 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Wang & Cano

No one predicted any kind of major league production out of these two guys when they were prospects. I don’t think they were on any kind of prospect list and they turned out to be above average producers. Granted, Cano had a down year last year, but that shouldn’t take away from his first several years. And Wang won 19 games two years in a row before getting hurt last season.

by sabernar on Feb 7, 2026 8:31 AM EST reply actions  

+1

Easily the most surprising french slugger of all-time.

by mkvallely on Feb 7, 2026 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

brandon webb

 went from an intruiging prospect, to perenial cy yong contender every year. didn’t see that coming.

by giantdonkey on Feb 7, 2026 12:37 PM EST reply actions  

Webb

How long has he been a top of the rotation guy now?

I keep wondering when he is going to get figured out.

For me, he really did come out of nowhere.

by BBFan1 on Feb 7, 2026 11:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Figured out?

Have you seen him pitch?

His sinker/curve combo is just nasty and he’s got good control. I don’t think that gets figured out.

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 12, 2026 4:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Pablo Sandoval

Signed by the Giants as non-drafted free agent in 2003. Started 2008 in high A. Raked in High A, continued raking in AA. Late season “cup of tea” resulted in a .344 batting average and 3 HR’s in 143 at bats. WHO SAW THAT COMING???

by artibar on Feb 7, 2026 1:36 PM EST reply actions  

Armando Gallaraga - SP Det.

Joakim Soria is a good one Rule 5 Pick - is now a top 5 closer in baseball
I say Gabby Sanchez of Florida will surprise us all a little bit this year.
Denard Span didn’t surprise me tooo much last year, But I’m a diehard Twins fan so I know more than most about him.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 7, 2026 1:37 PM EST reply actions  

gallaraga

will suck this year.

mark it down

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 7, 2026 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

suck?

no he won’t suck. he will likely regress but will still be an OK #4 which is just fine.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 7, 2026 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

John got this one right.

by David Tokarz on Feb 8, 2026 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Gabby

I don’t think Gabby will be an all-star for the Marlins, but I go to several Mudcats games a year, and Gabby has improved quite steadily during the time I’ve watched that team.

by Cormican on Feb 9, 2026 4:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Does Jack Cust count?

Journeyman minor leaguer for most of his career until Beane picks him up, and now he’s an Adam Dunn type player? That’s pretty awesome.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Feb 7, 2026 1:57 PM EST reply actions  

Bill James' been predicting that for years

The Ken Phelps All-Stars, if I remember correctly. Now what happened to David Ortiz is different

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 7, 2026 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course if a team would've just given him a chance before then, he would have hit

In 2003 with Baltimore, Cust got just 84 PA but put up an OPS+ of 129. He went 4 years and got just 4 major league plate appearances before joining the A’s. I’m not sure people should be surprised he’s hitting. I think he was out of the majors just because of his poor defense and being in organizations that didn’t realize how valuable he was as a hitter.

by thejd44 on Feb 8, 2026 4:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

Definitely a good fit for Oak. I’m not sure why he didn’t get traded to the AL sooner, since defense was the major knock. The homers and walks shouldn’t surprise too many people.

by kosmo99 on Feb 9, 2026 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

There was more to it then that.

Whispers I’ve heard around the league about Cust include a jackass attitude and the 8 letter S word.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 10, 2026 12:28 AM EST up reply actions  

That attitude doesn't seem to be there anymore, if it ever was.

As for the other thing, I don’t see how that would scare teams away since he never has been suspended for it. He was named in the Mitchell report, but he wins the award for “least amount of evidence of any player named in the report.” The only evidence there was a conversation that Larry Bigbie thought he remembered.

If a guy can hit, he can hit. And Cust has proven he can hit. Plenty of bigger jackasses and more likely steroid guys (who also weren’t as good at baseball) have had more opportunities.

by thejd44 on Feb 10, 2026 3:07 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not arguing against that.

Merely pointing out that Cust, despite all his worldly talents, was not appreciated by anybody around the league. Beane took a shot on him, because that’s what Beane does, but nobody else was going to. Other smart organizations passed on him. Other stupid organizations passed on him. I’m inclined to believe the whispers on this one, since I have no other reasonable explanation.

I will say this, attitude can get someone in serious trouble without the established reputation to back it up. Despite the shift in intellgience around the league, it’s still a “good ol’ boys” network and if you piss off one of them, they’re going to make sure that everybody else knows what a dick you are.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 11, 2026 12:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe my memory is off

But wasn’t Cust given as an example of the perfect player in Moneyball or in interviews about the book around it’s release?

by Cormican on Feb 9, 2026 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

No

I think you’re thinking of something else

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 12, 2026 4:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Someone

Someone else, that is.

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 12, 2026 5:00 AM EST up reply actions  

JJ Hardy

Hardy was never known for the bat coming up but he was very young. Now he’s a top 5 shortstop in baseball. I don’t think anyone expected that. I wonder if it was better or worse for him to have freak injuries for a few years early on?

McLouth too. Maybe I missed some signs but in the low minors there did not look like a path to this years output.

by willkoky on Feb 7, 2026 11:45 PM EST reply actions  

Scott Baker

I thought he was destined for a middle relief/swing man type of career, but Baker looks like a legit #3/#4 type starter.

by jibs on Feb 8, 2026 9:21 AM EST reply actions  

Baker

Looks like a #2-3 guy if you ask me - he was very good last year.

Visit my D2 Baseball Blog - Northern Sun Baseball

by FishingMN on Feb 8, 2026 12:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Napoli

I don’t think Mike Napoli got much attention… certainly not the sort that would befit a catcher who can slug like he has.

by BobbyMac on Feb 8, 2026 12:14 PM EST reply actions  

David Ortiz

When Boston picked him up for $1 million, everyone knew he could hit a little, but the only breakout candidate people were talking about for the Red Sox that year was Jeremy Giambi. A year later, Giambi was an afterthought and Ortiz had an impressive 5-year run as one of the best hitters alive.

Because his body type doesn’t lead to graceful declines, Ortiz probably won’t be remembered as an all-time great - more of a guy who had a few excellent seasons - but he was definitely a pleasant surprise.

by slamcactus on Feb 8, 2026 2:09 PM EST reply actions  

John Raynor?

Anyone? Among my favorite current prospects hands down

Member: Coalition For The Advancement Of Canadian Baseball Players

by fischbowl on Feb 8, 2026 8:17 PM EST reply actions  

John's great,

but until he does it in the bigs he could end up a disappointment. I think the idea here is who’s great in the bigs, but wasn’t highly thought of in the minors.

by Cormican on Feb 9, 2026 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

David Murphy

has a rather non-descript minor-league career, then ends up popping 15 HRs and playing solid D in his rookie year with the Rangers.

Brad Ziegler also had a nice year.

"I lost my virginity but I still have the box it came in."
- Unknown

by Rangerchick on Feb 8, 2026 10:44 PM EST reply actions  

Matt bush & Mike Piazza

for the exact opposite reasons - Bush drafted 1 overall & basically flunked at every level as a player & a person.

Piazza,drafted as a favour in the 40s & was seen as just a body & ended up with a more than solid MLB career.

by frenchredsox on Feb 9, 2026 5:54 AM EST reply actions  

Albert Pujols

He had a very nice 200 season in the minors, split between A and A+. I’m not sure of the scouting side, but nothing in his stat line made it likely that he’d go Ted Williams on the league for the next eight years.

by ajw on Feb 9, 2026 1:11 PM EST reply actions  

I thought of a different Jesse for the Jays- Jesse Litsch. He even surprised the GM.

by brent in Korea on Feb 15, 2026 10:19 PM EST reply actions  

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