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Grade Changes

Grade Changes

The 2010 Baseball Prospect Book is exactly half-done right now. I've gone over all the player comments and grades I've given thus far, looking for anything that stands out as an initial error, taking into account community input. I've analyzed about 600 players so far, and for the most part I am happy with the grades. It takes a while to get into a writing and grading groove, and most of the changes that need to be made are coming from the earlier teams I wrote up.

The goal is to get the grade right. I try not to let ego get into it.

Star-divide

Here are the six changes I've decided on. Four of these were community suggestions, the other two were not. All of the community suggestions were considered. Note that the Top 20 lists have been revised to reflect the new grades.

J.J. Hoover, RHP, Braves: Now a Grade C+, changed from B-: Trying to keep this consistent with subsequent grades, we need to see Hoover at a higher level than the Sally League. I still like him a lot. Moved down one notch on the Braves list.

Cody Johnson, OF, Braves: Now a Grade C+, changed from a C. I decided that community comments emphasizing his power potential and youth were correct. I'm still worried about his strikeout rate, but I've placed him in the Braves top 20 at number 17. High power ceiling, high risk of failure.

Che-Hsuan Lin, OF, Red Sox: Now a Grade C+, changed from a C. I gave him a Grade C+ last year, so this really isn't a change in my opinion about him. His tools are excellent and he is young, but he still has a long ways to go with the bat.

Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pirates: Now a Grade B-, changed from a C+. I didn't change the ranking on the Pirates list, but I did move Lincoln's grade up one notch, although I am concerned that Pirates fans are expecting him to be an ace again. I think he'll be more of an inning-eater, not that there's anything wrong with that. Despite numerous suggestions, I did not change Tim Alderson's grade, as I think people are overreacting at this point. He was overrated last year, but in light of his youth people are probably a bit too hard on him now.

Chris Marrero, 1B, Nationals: Now a Grade B-, changed from a B. Production to this point didn't justify the higher grade.

Jordan Parraz, OF, Royals: Now a Grade C+, changed from B-. The initial ranking was too high, as I didn't account enough for his age and vulnerability to injuries.

0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments

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Comments

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Kudos on sticking with your original analysis on Alderson, John. The groupthink has shifted too far the other way on him at this point.

by PhillyFriar on Dec 27, 2025 9:35 AM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I wish he stuck with his own analysis more often than he does. This site is full of biased fans lobbying for their own favorite players/teams, John is supposed to have a better idea than the vast majority of the people reading his stuff. One of my problems with his lists/grades is if a few people make a big enough fuss about it, John will often change things. No matter what you do, some percentage of the people will be upset so I really don’t think an analyst should let their readers’ opinions weigh into their work.

Keep up the good work though, always glad to see new lists and analysis wherever it may be.

by jfish26101 on Dec 27, 2025 10:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oftentimes it's justified.

It doesn’t really matter in the scheme of things, and it’s only ever by a third of a grade. Like with Alderson, if he really doesn’t think they deserve a grade improvement then there won’t be one.

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 27, 2025 12:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

analysis

Like I said, the point is to get the grade right. There were plenty of suggestions that I did not agree with and did not change.

by John Sickels on Dec 27, 2025 1:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

grades

I’d also note that three of the guys went DOWN a grade.

by John Sickels on Dec 27, 2025 1:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I still think Josh Bell should be a B+

www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects

by ravensfan3 on Dec 27, 2025 11:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

yeah...

john can you explain why is he a B and not a B+?

by matthewmafa on Dec 27, 2025 1:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the good old parent answer

“Because I said so!”

No reason necessary. :)

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Dec 27, 2025 2:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably a good choice on Parraz

I’m a huge Royals fan but you did a good job on the adjustments with the age/injury history. He seems to be a solid player when he is healthy and may be better than his grade. But you have to take into account everything.

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Dec 27, 2025 2:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hoover

Should’ve stayed as a B-. Hell, I wouldn’t even think its crazy to have him as a B.

by Franchise887 on Dec 27, 2025 4:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I don’t really understand the reasoning for moving Hoover down. I mean he had a K/BB of 5.92

by acie4mvp on Dec 27, 2025 6:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Very old for the level.

by WrenFGun on Dec 27, 2025 7:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not really

21 obviously isn’t young for the Sally League, but it isn’t “very old.” Probably just a titch behind the standard prospect curve.

by aCone419 on Dec 28, 2025 11:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lincoln

I think the grade for Lincoln is correct at a B-, though I disagree with having either Alderson or ZVR ahead of him, but it depends on what you want to emphasize. If you want to suggest that Alderson would out perfrom Lincoln at any level at the same age, I can kind of understand that, though I think Lincoln’s injury situation makes him a lot closer, developmentally, to Alderson anyway.

by WrenFGun on Dec 27, 2025 7:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think...

both being ahead of him is reasonable. Alderson has put up better numbers the whole way and he is also looking like an innings eater type. ZVR has a higher ceiling and I think he gets there in the amount of time Alderson has, but with better stuff.

by joegonzo on Dec 28, 2025 2:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’d have to say the changes with Hoover and Johnson are correct. They’re both C+ guys at this point. Johnson’s production tailed somewhat late in the year because of an injury he played through, and also because there was nothing left hitting around him when Freeman and Heyward were promoted. Still he was the best power hitter in the Carolina League at 20, so there’s something to be said for that. He’s not your ideal prospect by far, but he’s shown the propensity to improve every year. Double-A will either make or break his prospect status, luckily for him, having pure-80 power makes him something of a commodity, so he can be a repeater there without turning into organizational filler automatically.

I’d be very interested to see what would happen to his prospect status if he hits 30 HR in Mississippi next year, and still strikes out like 180 times. It’s certainly possible.

Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur

A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.

by timmy3 on Dec 29, 2025 4:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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