Decker is a fascinating test case - how do we read him, projection-wise, in terms of physique and athleticism? It seems that is the difference b/w giving him an A or B+ or even B. I would give him a B+; he looks like Matt Stairs coming up in an era that knows what to do w/ a Stairs (as opposed to the Hamster toiling in the minors for too long).

What do I see in my imaginary crystal ball? Best case scenario: a couple of all-star type seasons, a lot of average to slightly above average seasons w/ just below average defense in RF or LF, and a long last act (a la Stairs) as a bat for hire. Worst case scenario is I guess Jack Cust w/ less power and a little more average.

What I’d love to hear is a summary/report from someone who has been following him in person for awhile; how athletic does he play? Has his physique changed in the last year? What is his bat speed like? etc

Is something I haven’t completely thought about here. In reading reports, it sounds like he has a chance to be plus, which obviously would help his status greatly.

I too think he’ll strike out less than Ellsbury, but also walk less. I’m just hesitant to drop a B on any player with 20 power (yes, hyperbole, but probably not too far off). 3 HR’s in 1100 plate appearances. He’s listed at 5’9 165, so I’m not sure there’s any room to grow here. Also, 17 caught stealing in 63 attempts last year. It may sound like nit-picking, but when you’re completely void of one tool (power), you really need to excel in all other areas to be considered a B in my mind. Then again, maybe I grade on a different scale.

Taguchi was 6 runs better than the average center fielder over his 1200+ innings there.

So, he was pretty much a dead-on league average CF while he was in the states.

Lin is rated as having plus speed while Lee has current plus-plus speed. Plus-plus is special and Lee’s frame is slight and even when/if he fills out more I have hard time seeing him add enough weight to seriously slow him down. So i guess I’m not buying that Lin will end up faster.

a) Your comment was that they compared well because Taguchi was good defensively. My point is that Lin is supposed to be a plus defensive CF, which Taguchi never was, and hence why I don’t see the comparison.

b) Please read my comment before making a comment like that. It’s a bit annoying. I specifically note your complaint. I am not utilizing neutralized lines as anything more than an indicator on potential. I even highlighted it above. As you note at the end, the minors is to work on a player’s issues, so potential should always be factored in.

c) I have not suggested that Lin would have any more than gap power. So, I’m not sure what to respond to here. My comparison was that, after watching the two, this year, and in year’s past, that I think Lee and Lin will project to have similar levels of power.

d) Actually, this has been speculated upon by many this year, at games, and online. I believe the esteemed AzPhil over at TCR has speculated upon it in the past. Part of it is Castro, part of it is concerns on how he physically matures. As I also noted, though, here and elsewhere, I do think he can stick at short and be a potential plus defender there (I know I’ve said that one this site before), but to remove that possibility, when so much physical maturation will occur, when it has been speculated upon, is sort of a half-glass full type look for me. I’d like to take in the whole picture and assess all the possibilities. I’ll talk about the Castro bit below, but what needs to be noted is that it’s not natural athleticism that is a concern for me on either - it’s how each works to fix their issues.

None of this, though, changes anything I was saying above. Namely, that these two players have similar offensive and physical profiles and I’m hard pressed, even accounting for the additional positional value of Lee at shortstop (which I have acknowledged), to see one as a potential B/B- (as Lee is likely to be) and one as a flat C when both have similar offensive concerns but one has succeeded offensively at a higher level.

As for Castro, it seems to be a case where, so much love has led to some people giving strong critiques. It happens when guys jump quickly, and Castro is probably a tad overhyped right now. Like Lee, everything with Castro depends on how he physically matures. Best guesses I’ve heard suggest that he can add probably 10-15 more pounds without impacting his athleticism. Any more than that, and he might have a problem (sits around 170-180 right now). Castro has good lateral movement and a plus-plus arm. If he maintains his athleticism, I’m not concerned. If he maintains his athleticism, I’m more concerned about his sidearming than I am about his range. That said, if adds way too much weight, that’d be problematic. Last couple points is that, if Castro establishes himself, I find it unlikely that he will be forced off short. The Cubs are also rather high on his ability to stick there as well. Tbh, I think Lee will likely be used as a trade chip in the next season or two, but that’s just a random guess on my part.