I didn’t have to give it a lot of thought.

So let’s see. Reports (from the Astros?) are that Castro was about positional need. This from the undisputed worst farm system in the majors, with no depth at ANY position, and more need than anybody to find value, any value, anywhere? So if this report came from the Stros, we have some ostriches running the farm system.

So let’s assume not. Castro did, after all, get a top ten bonus. Yet we’re talking about lowered expectations for him. In my mind, that just adds up to a bad pick.

He’ll likely make the majors quickly, but only because what’s ahead of him is even worse.

I went with a different player who has been ticketed for stardom by prospect analysts. I think he’s going to be so-so at best.

I think there’s a lot of folks expecting a TOR, and I’m just not sold that Matusz is a TOR type.

Don’t forget the “Orioles are idiots” factor, too. Just one scenario: Matusz torches A- and AA-ball this year, gets a September callup, starts five games, and winds up with 200+ IP.

And yes, I’m thinking of Sidney Ponson racking up 12 CGs at ages 22 and 23 while throwing 440 innings. Who could have possibly forseen him getting injured and then sucking after that??

a pitcher is always a riskier prospect because of injury. that’s why they say, you can never have enough pitching.

A raw HS hitter with holes. Whehter he was a C or not, that seems pretty risky to me. Hosmer was the better hitter…I thought about T. Beckham to but went with Skipworth who I heard less about leading up to the draft. The Rays have been fairly successful with their drafts and truly liked him the most so I went with Skipworth.

Given almost any prospect list, the likelihood of bust usually goes in roughly this order:

1) high school catchers
2) high school pitchers
3) college pitchers
4) college catchers
5) other high school player
6) other college player

There’s just so much more variance with high school prospects, especially catchers (given both Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome and the risk that they’ll move to a far less valuable position) and pitchers (given the injury risk), that it’s almost impossible for a highly-regarded college prospect to be remotely comparable.

Not to say that college players are inherently more valuable; they’re just less likely to be complete busts, but they often don’t have quite as much of an upside either…

reports are he showed up to camp fat. I wouldn’t vote on him as a likely bust, but with his hype, if he turns into merely an above average offensive 1B with 25hr power, I think a lot of people will be pretty disappointed. He’s considered a better prospect than Alex Gordon was out of high school, and Gordon’s considered a disappointment even though he’s graded out as a slightly above average major leaguer in each of his first 2 seasons. Alvarez almost has to become a top-15 hitter to live up to his pre-draft hype.

The SSs can miss their ceiling by a ton and still be plus major league players.

The 1B prospects are the ones who will need to hit their ceilings to be even above average at their position.

Anyways, I’m not a huge Wade fan, but in respect to the draft, does the GM really play that big of a role (unless he takes over negotiations)? Unless there’s a communication breakdown between the GM and scouting director, the GM shouldn’t really matter on draft day. But, if you want to assume that he does, then what does it say when the core of the Phillies was drafted under his watch? But, if the S.D. is more important, then the GM’s chief role in the draft is making sure that he has a good S.D. in place. Arbuckle apparently did a good job and Bobby Heck came in with a great pedigree and the ’08 draft is, by and large, considered a good haul.

I would like to see where the club says they drafted Castro because of need. I’ve never come across one quote from the front office suggesting that and I’ve participated in chats where Heck asserts that he wasn’t selected based on need. Will Smoak put up better numbers? Probably. But, if anything, my assumption is that they didn’t want to bust slot (which only a few teams actually did) and signing a player for slot allowed them to spend more later in the draft for guys like Seaton. They spent $7M on the draft, so it’s not like they went cheap, either.

Personally, I did vote for a catcher. But, I think Skipworth has the greatest chance of those listed to be a bust. I considered T. Beckham, but settled for the raw catcher. To me, it’s hard to consider a guy who’s a good bet to be a solid, everyday catcher a good candidate to bust. As someone else said, he may not have the upside of some of the other guys, but he does have a high floor. If all he becomes is a solid, everyday catcher, that has to be considered a successful pick.

And I also happened to vote for Skipworth. He seems like a pretty easy choice to me, though I can understand just defaulting to the pitcher due to injury concern.