Prospect Analysis: Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds

by John Sickels on Sep 26, 2025 5:29 PM EDT Comment 21 comments

Drew Stubbs was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the first round in 2006, from the University of Texas. The eight-overall pick in the draft, Stubbs showed excellent tools and a power/speed combination in college, but he also showed a propensity to strike out. Some scouts worried that his long swing might not translate well against pro pitching, but his athleticism was too much for the Reds to pass up. He hit .252/.368/.400 with 19 steals in 56 games in the Pioneer League after signing, with 32 walks but 64 strikeouts in 210 at-bats. I gave him a Grade B- in the '07 book, writing that Stubbs had a high ceiling but "is a dangerous player to grade" since he could blow up just easily as he could develop.

Stubbs spent all of 2007 with Dayton in the Midwest League, hitting .270/.364/.421, with 23 steals, 69 walks, and 142 strikeouts in 497 at-bats. He drew raves for his excellent outfield defense, but scouts remained concerned about the bat, due to a long swing and problems against breaking pitches. His overall production wasn't terrific, +13 percent OPS, but the high strikeout rate was worrisome. I left him at Grade B- in the book this year, still wondering if he would make sufficient contact against better pitching.

The Reds sent Stubbs to Sarasota in the Florida State League to begin 2008. He hit .261/.366/.406 with 27 steals in 303 at-bats, with just five homers. He did draw 50 walks, with 82 strikeouts, and continued to impress observers with excellent glovework. His performance was similar to what he did in '07, with a +10 percent OPS. Promoted to Double-A Chattanooga, he hit .315/.400/.402 in 26 games, demonstrating good plate discipline but still not much home run power. He moved up to Triple-A Lousiville in August and hit .293/.354/.480, interestingly showing more power but weaker plate discipline with the worst walk rate of his career. The Double-and Triple-A sample sizes are small, of course. Overall on the year, he hit a combined .277/.371/.417 at three levels, with 33 steals, 67 walks, and 123 strikeouts in 470 at-bats. He hit just seven homers, but knocked 33 doubles.

I suspect I will keep Stubbs at Grade B- in the 2009 book. We still have unanswered questions here. The defense and speed are going to carry forward to the majors. But strikeouts and batting average are still concerns, and it is still unclear how much home run power he's going to develop. The power spike in Triple-A is interesting, though again with a 19 game sample size it's hard to conclude that something real changed. It could just be statistical variation, though the fact that his production didn't decline is certainly a good marker.

So, can Stubbs be a regular? I think if you stuck him in the lineup in 2009, he'd hit something like .245/.325/.380, though he's steal a few bases and play great defense. Perhaps he could be something like Carlos Gomez, with a few more walks.

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Brady Anderson Ceiling?

by Bravesin07 on Sep 26, 2025 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is hilarious...

What exactly is Brady Anderson ceiling??? 52HR’s, or pretty good player?

Also, I never imagined this guy as being white. First picture I have seen.

by rothe on Sep 26, 2025 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stubbs

Maybe he meant Brian Anderson?

by Brian B on Sep 29, 2025 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was awesome! Hahahahaha. I love it.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Sep 26, 2025 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question for John

Were you able to see Drew play at all this year? For me, he looks like a completely different player at the end of this year when I saw him in AA/AAA (only saw 1 game of him in AA, but saw nearly all of his AAA games) than what he was last year. Swing was better, faster even. He squares the ball up a lot more often than he did last year as well. He doesn’t get a ton of loft in his swing currently though, which is why his line drive rate is so high but his HR rate so low. The guy has 450+ foot HR power when he gets the right swing on the ball, but he doesn’t put that swing down often. The power potential is there, but I am not sure his current swing is cut out for him to be a 25+ HR guy even if he is strong enough to be that type of guy.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Sep 26, 2025 5:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh, for those who want to see some video of Stubbs

Someone sent me this link the other day.

http://home.insightbb.com/~goya551/public/Stubbs438HR.wmv

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Sep 26, 2025 5:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can you say....

draft bust. Bats, they are sick. I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. Once he sees some major league pitching, he’ll whiff 150+ times a year. Couple that with mediocre power production and you have Corey Patterson, not Brady Anderson.

by Looneyt0on on Sep 29, 2025 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Corey never took a walk

thats a big difference

"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 29, 2025 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Corey's walk rate vs Stubbs rate

Patterson’s walk rate at age 21in AAA 2001 was 7%.

Stubbs walk rate at age 23 in A+ in 2008 was 16.
Stubbs walk rate at age 23 in AA in 2008 was 11.
Stubbs walk rate at age 23 in AAA in 2008 was 8%

As Stubbs advances, he’s walking less, which is why I said once he sees major league pitching he will whiff 150+ times a year. He would have whiffed 150 times this year if he had 600 at bats.

Seeing as that Stubbs has 167 at bats at or above AA and has roughly a 10% walk rate, I can see the parallel to Patterson easily. Patterson’s minor league line is .284/.336/.499. Stubbs is .269/.367/.415.

by Looneyt0on on Oct 1, 2025 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bust?

Man, 23 years old and in AAA with an .800+ OPS and you are labeled a bust already….. you must be really difficult to impress.

As for 150 strikeouts a year, yeah, maybe. Drew has come a long way with his swing since being drafted. From Billings to Dayton to Sarasota to Chattanooga….. his strikeout rate dropped at each level. It went back up in AAA, but lets see where its at next year.

Still, the Corey Patterson comp isn’t very accurate. Drew draws walks and can work a count. Corey swung at anything near the plate. That doesn’t translate to major league success too often.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Sep 29, 2025 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus, Patterson is black

Therefore, he is Brady Anderson.

by rothe on Sep 29, 2025 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hate that about comps

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Sep 30, 2025 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, bust.

You’re going to take a 75 at bat stint in AAA with an OPS of .834 as your reasoning that I’m difficult to impress? He has 967 at bats in the minors with an OPS of .782. The Patterson comp might not be very accurate, as his OPS in the minors was .835. He had more power/less OBP. Stubbs has little developed power and a little better eye. That is why I’m not impressed and believe he will be a bust. Once he sees better pitching, his walk rate goes down and looks like he has no power to fall back on. At best, he will be a 4th OF/bench player - which is not what you want out of the #8 pick in the draft. They could have drafted Lincecum (#10), Scherzer (#11) or Travis Snyder (#14), but Stubbs was the man there.

by Looneyt0on on Oct 1, 2025 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, its not his AAA at bats

its that he has yet to show at any stage of the game that he was overmatched and you are suggesting he is a bust. Drew was a very raw guy coming out of college. He has come a long way with his swing since being drafted and has made numerous adjustments in it to get things going in the right direction. You say that his at bats in AAA is too small to worry about, but then note his time in AA or higher and its ‘low’ walk rate as a reason he will bust as if its a sample worth noting about.

You keep using words like ‘at best he will be’, as if he is a finished product and has no room to improve his game at the age of 23. That just doesn’t make sense to me. Does he need to continue improving his game? Yeah, he does, especially if he wants to start in the big leagues for a long period of time. Can he do it? I bet he can. He has yet to show that he can’t make adjustments to the next level.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Oct 1, 2025 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You used his AAA at bats...

which is why I used them as well to show that while he may have put up an .835 OPS (which isn’t that good by the way), that his walk rate decreased each level he moved up. You say that he has yet to show that he was overmatched; a 22 year old in A ball and a 23 year old in A+ ball shouldn’t ever be overmatched since they are old for the league. He finally got close to the league average age when he moved to AA/AAA.

If Stubbs had an entire year at AAA with his 75 at bat sample (which was his best OPS ever), his OPS would have been between Juan Miranda and Brad Eldred and below Timo Perez and Brett Gardner. If his OPS is matching Brett Gardner hit for hit than I’m not super impressed. You said that I act like he’s a finished product, but at 23 in AAA, he’d better be close to developed or else why would the Reds have promoted him 3 levels in 1 year?

I say at best he will be a 4th OF because that’s what I see him as. That’s just my opinion. Can he continue to improve? Of course. Do I think he will? No. It’s not often that a player sustains improvement statistically as they keep moving up levels. It’s obvious the Reds made a mistake drafting Stubbs over Travis Snyder. The ability to make adjustments is great, but everyone makes them in the majors or else they aren’t there long. That’s not to say Stubbs can’t be in the majors for a long period of time, because Corey Patterson has been there for 9 years, but he won’t be a starter in my opinion.

by Looneyt0on on Oct 2, 2025 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Disagree.

With most everything there. Drew Stubbs plays game changing defense. He doesn’t need to OPS .775 to be an above average player in the major leagues. If Stubbs can give a team a .750 OPS in the majors and play defense, he will be an above average centerfielder.

And he went to AA and the plan was to keep him there, but injuries in AAA caused the need to a promotion, so he got the call. Still, I think next year is the year his bat will break out some in the power category, wherever he plays at (be it AAA or MLB).

As for the Reds making the mistake of not taking Snider…. I don’t agree. The Reds don’t have a DH spot to put him in. If you wanted to say Lincecum, then yeah, you are right. Snider doesn’t fit well for this Reds team at all.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Oct 2, 2025 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would you feel better if...

I used Melky Cabrera as the comp for Stubbs? Same age and Melky actually has a better fielding range factor and fielding percentage than Stubbs. Of course, Melky already made the majors and flopped so far, but he did put up a .751 OPS (.360/.391) in 2006. Game changing defense is spectacular, but you have to have the ball hit near you to be able to play that spectacular defense. It doesn’t make up for someone who is an offensive liability, however. With a little hard work, Stubbs may get to bat 6-8 in the Reds lineup for a couple of years until they get tired of him or someone else steps up. Not exactly what you want out of the 8th pick.

by Looneyt0on on Oct 3, 2025 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can disagree all you want...

but you haven’t done anything to change my opinion or refute that he was old for A ball and AA ball or that at his best OPS in AAA makes him any better of a hitter than Brett Gardner. I’m a Yanks fan and see Gardner as a nothing. If Stubbs can give a .750 OPS in the majors, he deserves to be a 4th OF, not a starter. An OPS of .750 is a reach as Stubbs is around .780 in the minors, so he’d have some work to do. With his walk rate going down each level he goes up and no considerable power, the only reason he’d get to start is because of his defense, not hitting.

What do you see that makes you think he will break out some in the power department, especially if he ends up in the majors? He had 46XBH in 497AB in 2007 and 46XBH in 470AB in 2008. On the surface it looks like he has a shot to improve, except he had 5 more home runs in 07 (12) than in 08 (7). With better pitchers at higher levels, the only way I see him even keeping close to the power he has now is if he plays in the bandbox in Cincy full time.

And as for the Reds not making a mistake by not taking Snider, yeah…why would you want a 20 year old that already reached the majors capable of .360/.500 by the time he’s Stubbs age now? Why would you want a top prospect? Why would you want a player that put up a .803 OPS as a 20 year old in the majors, something that you’d be ecstatic if Stubbs produced? Enjoy Chris Dickerson/Jolbert Cabrera in LF in CIncinnati. The Reds made a mistake not taking Snider, they made a huge mistake not taking Lincecum but then again, the Reds haven’t been much for producing quality starting pitching (poor handling of Homer Bailey, jury is out on Johhny Cueto).

by Looneyt0on on Oct 3, 2025 9:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and you have done nothing to

change my mind. I watch the guy play and he is going to be fine.

And they still didn’t make a mistake on not taking Snider. He wouldn’t have a position to play in Cincinnati. He can’t play in the field and the Reds don’t have a DH. Maybe he would be a decent trading chip, but not drafting him isn’t really something they are regretting.

You know, sometimes that power thing develops over time. Sometime you look at numbers and they don’t always project to what is going to happen. Sometimes you have to actually watch a guy play.

I am done with this with you though. Its pointless. We obviously disagree a whole lot on the subject.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Oct 3, 2025 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't expect to...

change a Reds homer’s mind. Watch him play all you like, his stats show he’s going to be a 4th OF if he doesn’t improve a lot.

If by not making a mistake by not taking Snider you mean the Reds can afford to pass on a top 50 major league prospect that can put up a line close to 300/370/500 by the time he reaches Stubbs current age now, then of course the Reds dont need him. How you can even be close to satisfied with Stubbs over Snider is beyond me. To say they didn’t make a mistake drafting Stubbs over Snider shows you either as a serious Reds homer or in the severe minority there.

Sometimes power develops, but sometimes it doesnt. Sometimes you look at numbers and they do project what is going to happen. Stubbs was old for his league until he hit AA/AAA and his walk rate went down each level he moved up. He hasn’t shown improved power and you’re hoping he’ll post a .750 OPS, which would make him above average to you. There’s more that shows what he is right now than what he could become. It’s not to say he can’t improve…you believe he will, I obviously don’t. We’ll get to see soon enough.

by Looneyt0on on Oct 3, 2025 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs