Homer Bailey...

by NovaO on Apr 3, 2026 12:45 AM EDT

John had a post asking: true or false is Homer Bailey is overrated?

I posted that he was. I explain why in detail in this article:

Homer Bailey - Ace or Talented Underachiever?

My reasoning:

1. Performance doesn't really match talent.

He has put up good/very good numbers over his career, but I don't think they have ever been as good as his overall talent says they should be. Last year, he regressed and I don't think his injured groin was the only thing that caused his numbers to drop as he was struggling with his mechanics and displaying stuff that wasn't up to par before that injury happened. I think there are consistency issues here.

2. Mental make-up.

There has always been a lot of noise in regards to just how committed he is, whether he knows how to actually pitch, etc. He still a great prospect, but top-10 I don't think he is.

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I don't think top 10 fits either. I believe he is in the top 25. He is probably in the 16-21 range.

paw75

by paw75 on Apr 3, 2026 8:51 AM EDT 0 recs

Not concerned

The kid is still very young, and has tremendous stuff.

Based on his potential/upside, he warrants a top 10 ranking.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Apr 3, 2026 10:19 AM EDT 0 recs

Stop the insanity!!!

He has put up good/very good numbers over his career, but I don't think they have ever been as good as his overall talent says they should be.

Did you look at his 2006 numbers before you wrote this? Let me refresh your memory:
139 innings
2.46 ERA
156 Ks
50 BB
7 HR allowed
99 Hits Allowed
Do these numbers not impress you for a 20 year old?

In 2007, Bailey was doing well before his groin injury and it undoubtedly played a factor in his run of bad luck. People forget this guy is only 21 years old and has already handled Triple A pitching and gotten a taste in the big leagues. Why is it when a guy comes into the majors and does not dominate right away he is immediately written off as a "bust"? Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Ben Sheets, Jake Peavy, etc all did not come in and dominate in their initial introduction to the big leagues. Not everybody can pull a "Joba" and dominate hitters upon entrance to MLB. Does that make them overrated? Certainly not.

If anything, at this point Bailey is underrated and if you can buy him low in your keeper league, I would recommend you do so ASAP.

by King Billy Royal on Apr 3, 2026 12:33 PM EDT 0 recs

Did you read his article? He addresses basically everything you said in your post.

by sublime911 on Apr 3, 2026 1:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

I did

Firstly, I hate when people try to pimp out their own sites on John's blog. If you want to promote your own site buy some ad space. Secondly, he stated in his article that Bailey should have been better in 2006 specifically is K percentage. To me this is like stating that Gisele is good looking but she would be even better with longer hair. How can someone argue with Bailey's results that year?

by King Billy Royal on Apr 3, 2026 1:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

I actually don't agree with his statement there that he should have been better than his results; I think it's nitpicking to try and find problems in that kind of pitching line. You just seemed to repeat things that he said so I questioned whether or not you read the article, which I thought was well done, and definately worth the read, whether or not I agree with his conclusion.

by sublime911 on Apr 3, 2026 2:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

Bailey

He's only 21 so obviously he has some time but after watching him 3 or 4 times I must say that I am rather underwhelmed. He's no Johnny Cueto. That's for sure.

I understand you still believe in him and that's fine but you must admit he has lost some luster. If I could get him cheap I'd buy him in a second. My league mates are all pretty sharp so I doubt that will be happening.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 3, 2026 2:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

I really like Cueto...

I do like him more than Bailey though his upside isn't as high. He is a safer bet to actually reach his upside.

I think he gets underrated because of his size/height which I think are non-factors in my view.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 3, 2026 3:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

upside

i disagree w/ you on bailey having a higher upside. cueto has bigger, better stuff. as i said, i've watched them both and although i'm no expert i see a significant difference. i'm sure if bailey can command his pitches better that perception may change but for now it's not a difficult choice imo.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 3, 2026 4:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

you may be right...

I just watched Cueto's highlight from today's start. I had no idea he was getting up to 96. And with pin-point control as well. Plus, a tight high-80's slide. Ball explodes out of his hand.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 4, 2026 1:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

re:

I think it would be different if I was posting a link to basically crap pieces of work.

This is a minor league baseball site and I think people would be interested in some of the content I provide as readers are able to actually see some of these players in action.

I usually try to include past work John has done into my diary and I try to generate a discussion on these boards in anything I post from my site, as well as post on other topics.

I'll concede the point that I was probably nitpicking at his 2006 numbers, though I do think given his potential, he could have put up better numbers. His BB% has always been a little higher than I would like, however.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 3, 2026 3:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

King Billy

Let's talk about some nice things like Zack Greinke. What do you think? .. Mr. Greinke learning how to pitch. Only 50 so far through 4 innings of work. Zack attack in Detroit rock city!

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 3, 2026 2:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Big Fan

I am a big fan of Mr. Greinke. Now that he seems to have his mental condition under control, I expect to see great things from him. He has the potential to develop in a number 1 or 2 starter. I remember when he came up scouts raved about his wide assortment of offspeed pitches. Also, you have to love the control of this kid and he can dial up the heater when required. People forget that he is still only entering his age 24 season. I find it humerous how people slam guys like Greinke and Bailey who are taking their lumps while playing above their level. It seems like only last year that everybody was ready to write Greinke off and now they are doing the same with Bailey.

by King Billy Royal on Apr 3, 2026 2:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

greinke > bailey

i think the big difference here is greinke had much better command of his secondary pitches at the same age. his problem is 100% mental. i think bailey has both issues to contend with. command & make-up.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 3, 2026 4:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Zack

his problem was 100% mental

:-)

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Apr 3, 2026 7:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

nah

Greinke was a completely different pitcher before he went to the pen. You are a Royals fan, shame on you.

Before he was content to pitch around 90mph mixing velocity, great control, etc. Except when he worked up in the zone he gave up too many hr's. He still was an exciting kid to watch.

But when he moved to the pen and threw 95 he realized he could do this and keep his control. Light goes on. See: Carmona, Fausto.

Then when in the rotation his stuff is electric. His high pitches instead of giving up too many hr's get lots of k's. He starts to dominate and of course confidence goes up.

Arnold Palmer mentioned learn to hit it as far as you can THEN start to control it. If you control it first you will never learn to hit it far. So true, and very relevant in MLB.

by pedrophile on Apr 4, 2026 12:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

re:

He did have a very good 2006 and I probably did nitpick about the K%.

But he did regress in 2007. And if by handled AAA you mean he pitched in AAA, then I agree.

His K/9 in AAA not including the period of his groin injury was 6.85 and his BB/9 was 4.05. The hits were low, which is a positive. And while the ERA is nice, I don't put much weight on that stat as a predictor of major league success.

As for your list...

Nolan Ryan, first season with the Mets he put up a 3.09 ERA and struck out almost 9 batters a game. His K-rate at the minor league level was elite, considering strikeouts were not as common as they are today. I can't count 3 IP in 2 games for his debut as somebody people immediately wrote off as a bust.

Sheets was for the most part decent in his first big league season, while Peavy actually put up some very good numbers in his debut season.

However, the bigger point here is that those players are exceptions to the rule. And I'm not really just using Bailey's MLB experience since he struggled in AAA as well.

I don't disagree he is not a very good prospect, but he isn't a top-10 like most have him, in my view.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 3, 2026 3:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sheets and Peavy

Sheets had a 4.76 ERA his rookie year with only 94 K's in 151 innings. If you consider that decent in the NL then I guess we have to disagree.

Peavy had a 4.52 ERA in a pitchers park in the NL. Personally that does not impress me.

The reason that Bailey's numbers were down in AAA is because he was working on his 3rd pitch. His coaches had him working on a change to go along with his already plus fastball and 12-6 curve. The goal of the minors is not to put up big numbers but instead it is to improve your abilities and get a pitcher ready for MLB success. To blame Bailey for not striking as many guys out, when he was ordered to not focus as much on his two strike out pitches seems rather unfair.

by King Billy Royal on Apr 3, 2026 3:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

re:

I would consider Sheets decent for a rookie season.

Peavy had some solid peripherals, which is more of what I look to rather than ERA because ERA is not great indicator of future success.

Fair points on Bailey, though I'm not convinced that working on his change-up caused his numbers to drop as much as they did.

I watched a couple of his starts before his groin injury and his fastball looked like it had less life and his command was completely off. Again, I think he is somewhere in that 20 - 40 without looking closely at the various top-100 lists out there. I simply think the possibility of him becoming a front line starter is pretty low.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 3, 2026 4:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Tim Lincecum (surprise, surprise)

Tim Lincecum is two years older than Homer, but last season while working on a third pitch in AAA he posted an 0.29 ERA, fanning 46 batters in 31 innings -- with about 10 or 12 of the strikeouts coming on that third pitch.

It doesn't appear to me that Tim's fourth pitch (a slider) that he added this winter is as good as the change he developed the previous winter. Then again, the Giants asked him not to throw much over this past winter.

I don't really think a pitcher needs a fourth pitch too much (and in Tim's case, he needs control more than a fourth pitch). But the fourth pitch can come in handy if one or two of the other pitches aren't working on a particular day.

by sharksrog on Apr 4, 2026 3:16 AM EDT up 0 recs

Ugghhh

We get it; you like Tim Lincecum. However, I don't understand why you need to bring him up into EVERY conversation. As you said, Bailey is two years younger so it really isn't fair to compare the two. Also, can you supply me some data to back up your claim that 10-12 strikeouts came on his third pitch. I have a feeling that you have no actual proof to support this but are instead making a claim from your 'recollection'.

by King Billy Royal on Apr 4, 2026 2:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's hard to say

Bailey is an easy prospect to point to as overrated because his flaws are so obvious and glaring. But at the same time, he is still very young, and has time to improve his control and secondary offerings. I wouldn't bet on him being an ace in the future. He probably won't improve enough to be one of MLB's elite, but he still has time to develop into a good starting pitcher.

by grandslam84 on Apr 3, 2026 9:02 PM EDT 0 recs