Crystal Ball: Jay Bruce

by John Sickels on Apr 26, 2025 12:50 PM EDT Comment 18 comments

Poll

Rate the Crystal Ball

Too Optimistic; his peak won't be that good

272 votes

Too Optimistic; he won't last that long

196 votes

Just Right

246 votes

Too Pessimistic; he will last longer

24 votes

Too Pessimistic; his peak will be better

171 votes

909 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 18 comments

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Comments

Can't say

I see 500 HR.

I will be waiting...24601.

by PujolsJunkie on Apr 26, 2025 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That applies to any prospect

I can’t think of any prospect who projects for 500 homers in a career, but guys hit 500+ homers, so Bruce has as good a chance as any prospect.

Clatto Verata N... Necktie... Nickel... It's an "N" word, it's definitely an "N" word! Ash, Army of Darkness

by soxn08 on Apr 26, 2025 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jay Bruce is the number one prospect in baseball for a reason and he is going to put up monster numbers in his career. At his peak he will hit for great average and power and be a thrill for all Reds fans to watch. I can’t wait for him to get the call to Cincy so the rebuilding process can truly begin.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Apr 26, 2025 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like him, but....

I wish there was a poll option for both “his peak won’t be that good” AND “he won’t last that long.”

by jonk1982 on Apr 26, 2025 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I was thinking the same thing. Not that I don’t see great things for Bruce…but I think it’s a little optimisic on both accounts.

"When you don't feel good and you still get hits, that's how you know you're a bad man." - Manny Ramirez - the official quote of MVN Radio's Red Sox podcast

by timfrommvn on Apr 26, 2025 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 26, 2025 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HRs

I can see a few more (+3-5 per year) HR in his early full-time years for the Reds based on their home park

by Caernarvon on Apr 26, 2025 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't see him

having 6 35+ homerun years and never walking 70 times, I mean hitters will become afraid of him eventually. Not that Bruce is a walk machine, but neither is Vlad and he still has had an 80 walk season. I also think Bruce might hit for higher average with less strikeouts then this projection

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Apr 26, 2025 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What Trenchtown said

CB predicting an awfully long career for a guy with less than great BB rate and BB:K ratio. I’m with those who think he’s unlikely to last long enough to reach 500 homeruns. Barring significant injury, I think around 400 is more likely. (I do like him a lot, though.)

- Jack

by Jack_Spellman on Apr 26, 2025 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I think he will hit for that kind of power but will develop a better batting eye than that as well.

These things are great fun though BTW John and thanks for doing them. It makes me want to post a few of my own and mine CAN be taken as a prediction :-)

by casejud on Apr 27, 2025 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bleah

Personally, I think he’ll reach 2000 strikeouts in about 8 fewer years and have multiple 180+ K seasons. They won’t need air conditioning in the GABP with all the whiffs coming from his bat.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 26, 2025 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Response

I can see him playing for a long time thanks to his great athletic ability. But that’s a very rapid rise to an obscene peak.

by mrkupe on Apr 26, 2025 8:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bruce projects to 3,000 hits

Love this feature John.

I actually think Bruce projects out with fewer home runs than you’ve got but a few more hits. I think he’ll crack the 200 hit mark 2 or 3 times.

I think he gets to 3,000 hits, hits 420 home runs, and is around .280 for his career (that prediction I like by you). I think that he will have identical durability.

by TheNaturalMevs on Apr 27, 2025 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

so

are the 15% of people serious when they say his peak will be better?

WTF?

I’m not saying this CB is too optimistic, its hard for anyone to do this but you can understand #1 prospect RF hitting 49 HRs and hitting .300+ someday, but how is it too pessimistic!?

Is he supposed to hit 600 homers?
Are there really 66 crazy fanboys out there?

by nms on Apr 28, 2025 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If he hits .223 this year

He won’t see much playing time as long as Dusty Baker is ruining the Reds organization.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Apr 28, 2025 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dusty

Dusty gets a poor rap for not playing rookies, but could you name the rookie he didn’t play who went on to become a very good player later on? With the Giants, Dusty was panned for not starting Calvin Murray and Damon (Tiny) Minor. Both are out of baseball now; Murray with a .232 career average and Minor at .231.

Despite being outhit by about 150 points in spring training, I don’t see Joey Votto having much trouble getting playing time.

by sharksrog on Apr 29, 2025 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bru-u-u-u-u-ce

Let me preface this comment by saying that two winters ago a poster from here e-mailed me asking whether I thought Jay or Tim Lincecum would be better. Well, I was pretty much on target with Tim, but I gave Jay rather short shrift.

At that time I didn’t like Jay’s high strikeout rate. It remains a concern, although he has cut it below once every four at bats. Still, the guy just turned 21, and he’s hitting VERY well in AAA, as his .322 batting average would indicate.

On the negative side, his 21 strikeouts in 90 at bats still aren’t great. And his 21 whiffs compared to just five walks is poor. Jay’s .322 batting average has been formed in great part by an unsustainable .375 BABIP. Reduce Jay’s BABIP to a major league average .300, and suddenly he’s hitting just .267.

Then again, if a guy can hit .267 as a 21-year-old and do it with power, I think a position can be found for him. :)

So let me conclude by saying that I definitely underrated Jay initially. But I don’t want to compound that mistake by now OVERrating him. Nor do I want to underrate him again.

It appears to me that Jay will hit with impressive power but not for a lot of average. I’m not sure that his hitting will be hugely different from that of his future teammate Adam Dunn—except that he will strike out less and walk a lot fewer times.

And not to be overlooked, be one HECK of a better fielder than Adam.

I would love to have Jay Bruce. But I still wouldn’t trade Tim Lincecum for him. Would I rank Jay as a better prospect than fellow Reds prospect Homer Bailey? Probably—although I would love to have Homer too! :)

As for John’s projections, I think they may be a little rich on the average side—although I don’t really have a problem with the 500 home runs as long as Jay stays healthy.

And unless Dusty ruins him, of course. :)

by sharksrog on Apr 29, 2025 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs