Zack Greinke Redux

by John Sickels on May 4, 2025 2:24 PM EDT in News Comment 29 comments

I've spent an hour trying to think of something profound to say about Zack Greinke but I can't think of anything. He's made six starts and has pitched very well in three of them, mediocre in two, and was blasted in one. He's 1-3, 4.70 in six starts with a 19/11 K/BB and 40 hits allowed in 30.2 innings. . .hardly stunning performance overall, but not horrid by modern standards although the hits are high. Overall he's looked OK to me. The best news is that his head had stayed on straight and the problems with social anxiety appear to be a thing of the past.

Strong starting performances from Gil Meche and Jorge De La Rosa have kept the pressure and attention off Greinke, which helps. My guess is that he's going to stay in the rotation all season and finish with final numbers around league average. He'll have occasional brilliant starts, and occasional starts where he gets killed early.

What do you think? I'm particularly interested in observations from people who've seen his starts. What does he do different on the days he does well compared to the days when he gets hit hard?

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2005 Redux

He looks to me like much the same pitcher he was in 2005. The loopy curveball is still there, and getting pounded. The control is still very good, but the stuff just isn't fooling hitters.

I've seen three of his starts, and I haven't noticed the transformation that people were talking about. Against the Red Sox in particular, he didn't look particularly good - the Red Sox just went in there with the single worst gameplan I've ever seen a team take against a pitcher. They went up there taking every pitch, leading to lots of strikeouts looking - it was as if they thought he didn't have any control at all. He had very good superficial numbers that game, but from watching him, the stuff didn't look at all that good.

He's having the same problems I warned people about after his 2004 season, and why I was skeptical that the mental stuff was responsible for his 2005 collapse. He just doesn't profile as a successful major league pitcher. He's an extreme flyball pitcher (35.8% GB rate) who doesn't miss bats (5.57 K/9). That's not a good combination. It's a fine line you need to walk to be successful as a flyball pitcher who doesn't strike people out.

He's still got a good arm, but I feel like he needs to drop the curveball, and pick up a new pitch. Otherwise, he's a league average starter in his good years, and Eric Milton the rest of the time.

by bibigon on May 4, 2025 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1 start

I've only seen him once, against the Boston Red Sox. And, he was masterful. Hit his spots, had good velocity, good breaking stuff.

All of the Sox fans I was with were completely impressed with the kid.

He's probably better than those totals indicate.

http://www.deweyshouse.com

by SmokeyJoeWood on May 4, 2025 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Greinke

Like all pitchers that rely on pinpoint control and guile to beat hitters, Greinke is going to look brilliant when he's on, and look awful when he's missing his spots. I was at Tuesday's game against the Angels when he was roughed up in the 1st inning, and it was apparent that his command wasn't there with his breaking stuff. He allowed a few hits until Vlad demolished a pitch for a grand slam. He settled down a bit after that, but he still wasn't vintage Greinke.

Other times he will go out there and just make hitters look silly. However, he needs everything to be on, because he really doesn't have a dominating pitch that he can lean on when others just aren't going over.

At this point in time, I have tempered my expectations for him a bit. I definitely believe he can still become that elite pitcher we dreamed of, but I also realize that there's a good chance he simply levels off into a solid mid-rotation guy. That said, I feel like most people forget that he is still just 23 years - it's almost unfathomable that he is that young after everything he has been through. There is still so much room for growth with him.

by eazyb81 on May 4, 2025 2:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Greinke has the potential to be a solid pitcher,

I doubt that he's a number 1 or perhaps even a number 2. His stuff is better than the league average. Unlike bibigon, I think the mental breakdown from anxiety and depression had a lot to do with his horrid 2005 collapse. The main issue with Greinke in 2005 is that his confidence was gone. He was leaving everything over the plate with less velocity. His location/control wasn't there. Overall, he has the ability to be a good pitcher, but like I said earlier I doubt he'll ever be a number 1 or even a good number 2. He'll be a solid #3 or #4.

Lincecum is the truth!

by JT12340 on May 4, 2025 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

On the days when he gets hit

One thing I notice is that, for whatever reason, guys foul off a ton of pitches. In the start he got demolished by the Tigers, this was his problem: he didn't have a way to put guys away. Even when he threw his curve out of the zone, guys could foul it off...which is a little weird.

He's not the same pitcher he was in 2005. In 2005 he tried to pitch like a power pitcher and that just doesn't work for him. This season he's gone back to painting the corners and using a lot of pitches, changing speeds, and all that, but he's had a couple of bad starts that have made him look a lot worse than he really is. His last three starts, in particular, he has really fought with his command, and his stuff hasn't been as sharp.

Still, I think you have to give him time. His minor league resume is stellar, even last year with AA Wichita. As eazyb81 pointed out, he's still extremely young, and he's had a lot issues both on and off the baseball field which he couldn't really control. Until now.

I think once he sorts out his command, he'll start to perform a lot better. Over the course of a full season, he'll be solid.

And I'm confident he'll get that command back. If Bob McClure (KC's pitching coach) can get Jorge De La Rosa to cut his career BB/9 from 6.63 to 1.58 (!) this season, and Gil Meche's from 4.01 to 1.86, he can fix Greinke's command, too.

by ajohnst1 on May 4, 2025 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I was in the front row directly behind the plate for his start against the Twins (yes, it does sound very eerie when a 90 MPH fastball hits flush with someone's face), and I'll concur with ajohnst1 that guys fouled off all of his "out" pitches. I believe he gave up four walks and only registered one K in that contest, and I can remember a number of times where league avg hitters like Punto or Kubel fouled off backdoor curves or inside fastballs to stay alive.

At the same time, Greinke located his fastball and curveball well in that game, only giving up four hits in 7 innings, but he didn't look like a dominant starter at all to me.

Here's hoping that he continues to overcome his personal issues, and remains a major league starter for some time - but I wuold be completely surprised if he regained his once-thought-of "elite" status in this league.

by mjwelch11 on May 4, 2025 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+2

You're absolutely right about his start against the Tigers, those ABs by Pudge and Guillen (?) were the most dramatic examples, but I've seen 3 or 4 of his starts this year, and the hitters are doing an excellent job of spoiling his best pitches and waiting for him to hang one out over the plate.

by Yakker on May 4, 2025 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right on

Now, here's another question. Why are hitters fouling off his out pitches? They did it in 2005, but in 2004, and in the minors, this was not the case.

Maybe Greinke isn't changing speeds as well. Regardless of how sharp his breaking stuff is, he should theoretically be able to get guys out just by hitting spots and changing speeds, which he did to great success in 2004 and in the minors. Is he not doing this now? I know he has scrapped his slow curve (the 50 mph one, and I haven't seen one in the 60s, which he frequently threw in 2004). Maybe he has scrapped some other offspeed stuff as well?

by ajohnst1 on May 4, 2025 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I think that's partially it. I don't think the slow slow curve is the culprit, it just seems to me like he's getting less mph separation between the FB and the change these days. IIRC, this year the FB's been around 91/92 with the change at 84/85. Not bad, but not quite the 10% separation that's ideal. Also, of course, he's not hitting his spots as well, or, I should say, at least not as consistently.

Also, and this shouldn't be taken as a mental health comment but rather as a 24-year old who's still learning the game and gaining emotional maturity comment, I think it's been a little unnerving this year for him to see guys who're spoiling his best pitches. He'll get better at that over time.

by Yakker on May 4, 2025 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've seen all of his starts.

The first 2 starts, he looked very good. He was able to get strikeouts and wasn't walking anyone. He gave up about a hit per inning.

The last 4 starts, the problem for Greinke is he can't get the ball past anyone. The hitters consistently foul him off and are hitting him hard. Except for early on in the Twins game, he looks to have his control, though it looks like he is having problems throwing his curve. I have no proof, but I'm wondering if he may be tipping his offspeed pitches. He went from being totally dominant to not being able to strike anyone out with his slider and changeup.

by royalsfan7 on May 4, 2025 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately

I was only able to see his first 3 starts, and he looked fine to me even in his 0.2ip start. RSTN(Royals TV Network?) always have off-days on his starts since then, so I have no idea what's wrong with him. "Watching" on Gameday it looks like he's leaving his pitches up and isn't getting the third strike pass hitters, which remind me of somebody that I'm not too found of. Jason Jennings of 2006, it seems like he always relies on a big zone, when the zone is big and he's getting those corner calls, he has good games, otherwise, he struggles. JJ's 06 wasn't too bad number wise, so I really don't know what to think about this connection.

by playingwithfire on May 4, 2025 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Out Pitch

I think he lacks a bonafide out pitch. Just from watching, I think I can agree with the strike zone assessment. I'm not sure what it would take for him to either learn or to refine a pitch to where instead of throwing it and the batters fouling it off, he misses a bat or gets him to at least put the ball in play.

I think he can be real good when the batter is more patient. It seems like he can work through a batter and mix him up with whats coming. But if the batter is aggressive and gets to where Zack purely has to make the pitch and not rely on guile or deception then I think he gets in trouble.

by wildthang on May 4, 2025 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I am worried that the mental issues still linger

His first two starts of the year were quite nice. Then, he went to the funeral for two of his grandparents. Since then, his starts have been much worse.

His struggles may have nothing to do with that, but given his history I can't help but worry.

by aCone419 on May 4, 2025 6:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

His grandfather AND grandmother died within a day of each other.

That's hard, and that's tragic, and I'm sure it was distracting as all get out. Focus is and will be critical to his success, and I'm not sure he's able to maintain it yet.

by manhands on May 4, 2025 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

And it was right after they had come up to KC to see his first start of the year.

by ajohnst1 on May 5, 2025 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey

If the Royals wanted, they should have him work the ERA to around 4 and send him to the Yankees with some B-/C+ prospects for Jose Tabata (half kidding, of course)

http://sheafaithful.blogspot.com/ aamzing baseball blog

by Ludacrispat26 on May 5, 2025 10:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Greinke's start today

So far he's pitched 3 innings and given up 6 ER, on three two run homers. All three homers came in the second inning. He's also induced a number of warning track fly balls, and the wind is blowing IN today.

This is a really discouraging start, and with Scott Elarton and Luke Hudson both due back from injury soon, Greinke was maybe due to move to the bullpen. Now, he looks like he's bound for Omaha. His stuff has looked terrible in his last two starts, so I think that would be the right move at this point.

by ajohnst1 on May 6, 2025 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

errrr

god...where to begin? Doesn't have his control today, at all, if he does. I think he can be okay. His stuff has been mediocre in his good starts this year. I don't know man, it's painful watching Chad Durbin outpitch him.

by playingwithfire on May 6, 2025 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's painful

...is seeing Chad Durbin throw six shutout innings, allowing two hits, on 61 pitches!!!

Sixty-one pitches in innings!!! OMG!

by ajohnst1 on May 6, 2025 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what's even more painful

is seeing Buddy not trying to do ANYTHING to delay the game knowing the storm is just about an hour away.

by playingwithfire on May 6, 2025 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The lowest of the low

is to see Neifi Perez hit a HR off of us...

by playingwithfire on May 6, 2025 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't matter though

Unfortunately, I don't think it matters. The new rules about rain delays means that even if the rain came, it's an official game, and they'd finish it off at a later date if it got rained out.

I had high hopes for this game, but this is just disgusting on so many levels. Definitely the worst game of the season for the Royals, and that's saying quite a lot. The only bright spot is that De La Rosa and Meche pitch tommorrow and Tuesday.

As I type this, NEIFI PEREZ hits a three run homer, and it's now 13-0. This is unbelievably depressing.

by ajohnst1 on May 6, 2025 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

delay

even if the game didn't go to the 6th? I remember an earlier Cleveland game this year that got rained out(and wasn't scheduled to be made up) 1 strike short. he has a 4.2ip no hitter, but the game was called.

I mean I don't care if we trail 42-0 and has to walk everybody. Do something.

by playingwithfire on May 6, 2025 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Maybe you're right. Still, I don't think anyone would have gone for that. If Bell had actually done this, I think the commish might have stepped in. As you say, it probably would've taken walking every batter for about an hour to call the game.

by ajohnst1 on May 6, 2025 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

I'd think the rain would come by now... but oh well. You do everything you can to win(or not lose)

(Cartman's voice)I do what I want!

by playingwithfire on May 6, 2025 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right!

Hello playingwithfire,

You're right - Hargrove and the Mariners "delayed" long enough for the umpires to consider calling the game, and did. We now have to make up that game as part of a DH in Seattle; if we could have gotten that game to become official, like we probably would have with just a few more pitches (maybe even one more pitch,) we could have made up the other 3 games at Jacobs Field, without having to play elsewhere as a "home game."

Selig didn't step in to rebuke Hargrove for his stall tactic, so it's possible Buddy could have gotten away with it, especially if he had done his "stalling" over the course of the game (not noticeably stall just in the last inning.)

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on May 8, 2025 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hello indiansfan

I was half sarcastic and half frustrated with Buddy Bell when I said that. I wouldn't think walking everybody would work, but the thing that bothers me is that it doesn't look like Buddy is trying ANYTHING to delay the game at all, hitters keep swinging at 1st and 2nd pitches and hit into double plays. It was a frustrating game to watch period.

Greinke to the pen, btw.

by playingwithfire on May 8, 2025 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I figured you were jesting, at least somewhat!

Hello playingwithfire,

After seeing Hargrove and the Mariners "delay" at least a bit during our first attempt of a home opener, you would have thought the Royals, including Bell, would have tried harder to extend the game and give themselves another chance to win it with a washout - I presume they knew inclement weather was coming into the area shortly.

Thanks for the info. on Greinke - greatly appreciated! SportsTime Ohio mentioned it as well - it will be interesting to see how he takes to the bullpen, since he's never been a reliever before.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on May 9, 2025 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs