David Price

by John Sickels on May 24, 2025 3:56 PM EDT in News

Thinking about David Price

Here's my take on David Price, the Vanberbilt lefty widely expected to be the first overall pick in the 2007 draft.

He's really good.

Let's see. What do you look for in a pitcher?

Velocity? He hits 90-92, can get up to 94-95 if he wants to. Check.
Movement on his fastball? His heater isn't straight. Check.
Breaking stuff? His slider is very strong and rated a plus pitch according to scouts. Check.
Changes speeds? His changeup is at least average and above average according to some scouts. Check.
Command? He's walked just 29 guys in 114 innings this year, and scouts praise his command. He sometimes has location problems with in the zone, but it is not a major issue most of the time. Check.
Performance? He's 10-0, 2.76 with a 164/29 K/BB ratio in 114 innings, 84 hits allowed, just one homer given up all season. Check.
Size and athleticism? He's 6-5, 215 pounds and a fine overall athlete. Check.
Intelligence and makeup? He's very bright and everyone raves about his work ethic, confidence, and approach to the game. Check.
Mechanics and delivery? Scouts like it, and it looks great on TV/video....smooth, repeatable, no wasted motion, nothing that stands out as a red flag or extra arm stress. Check.

To summarize, Price is polished, smart, throws hard, throws strikes, changes speeds well, is confident, is athletic, and has good mechanics. Sounds like a great pitching prospect to me. Frankly he has no major weakness that I can see, aside from the usual worries about workload leading to injury eventually. But there is nothing here indicating that his injury risk would be any higher than average for a pitcher in his cohort, and his athleticism and repeatable delivery may lower the risk to some extent.

If I were the D-Rays, this would be a no-brainer. . I'd draft him, sign him ASAP, and send him to Vero Beach for a few starts aside Wade Davis and Jacob McGee. . .can you imagine that rotation? I wouldn't push Price hard; he'd be on a pretty strict pitch count due to the long college season, but I'd like him to get his feet wet in pro ball, get three or four starts under his belt at least. Then he'd begin '08 in Double-A, move him up to Triple-A in July assuming he pitches well, then the majors in September. That would be the ideal plan.

0 recs | Comment 57 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

3 Games

I can't believe the Royals were 3 games away from ending up with David Price.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on May 24, 2025 3:54 PM EDT 0 recs

yes, but

nobody out tanks the Drays.

"You chances at pick 1.1 dead, dawg. we ain't playin fo' real".

by I Love Oakland As on May 24, 2025 4:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

"we're winning. better bring in Stokes"

"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading." - Henny Youngman

by TINSTAAPP on May 24, 2025 4:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

pfft

I almost gagged on my soda. That's basically what Joe Maddon has done this year anyway. At least 4 losses can be directly attributed to dumb use of Brian Stokes or Shawn Camp.

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on May 24, 2025 4:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sonnanstine

You must like Andy Sonnanstine if he's in your tag line. tell me more about him. i have a 30-man minor league squad and am always VERY tight on minors. is this a guy i need to cut ? tell me more. psugator01@aol.com

If you know of a minor league sleeper, please let me know

by psugator01 on May 25, 2025 11:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

Also

Just because a team CAN take the consensus no brainer, doesn't mean they will. But man, what a defensive end Mario Williams is gonna be!

"I'm not arrogant, I'm good." - Barry Bonds

by Azantor on May 24, 2025 4:09 PM EDT 0 recs

Dude...

Williams is a beast who played better as the year went on...injured.

Bush would have been destroyed by the Texas O-line, and honestly it doesn't look like the guy will ever be a full load RB.

by SenorGato88 on May 24, 2025 5:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

And in a year or two

when Okoye is over the drinking age that is going to be a nasty D-line. Even this year, Williams now has someone to take the load off. Last year he was a rookie that got double-teamed just about every time because there was no one else really worth blocking. Now he is going to get a bit more help.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on May 24, 2025 5:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

I was just sayin'...

Though they're the Devil Rays, they still seem to do well with their #1 picks, and at least take the guy that everyone thinks they should.

"I'm not arrogant, I'm good." - Barry Bonds

by Azantor on May 24, 2025 5:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

Nice breakdown of Mr. Price, John. Although something's up with your statistics, you have two different sets of them concerning his IP and BB totals.

The more I see out of him, the more I like him. Perhaps the top rated pitching prospect in the minors by year's end? I'm thinking he's a near lock to be in the top 3.

by mrkupe on May 24, 2025 4:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Watching David Price right now

against the Mississippi State Bulldogs...no-no through 6. He is getting the corners though which makes him dominant. Slider is filthy.

by themurph on May 24, 2025 4:20 PM EDT 0 recs

And the first batter in the seventh

breaks it up...Jeffery Rea singled through the left side. Boston drafted him late last year. He is a Pedroia clone for those that don't know.

We'll see how Price looks in the stretch...fastball away, RBI double down the right field line - 3-1 Vandy.

by themurph on May 24, 2025 4:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Another double down the RF line

1-2 count right in the wheelhouse of a lefty hitter...I have the voodoo today I guess. Price has 9 k's so far.

Another single up the middle, runner thrown out at the plate...very slow runner and the catcher was not blocking well either...still 3-2 Vandy

by themurph on May 24, 2025 4:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Rea vs. Pedroia

Not all short guys are the same. To compare Rea to Pedroia just doesn't make sense to me. Here are their stats, by seasonal (July1) age. Unless noted, they are college stats.

Rea, Age 18: HS
Pedroia, Age 18: .347/.417/.432

Rea, 19: .324/.409/.426
Pedroia, 19: .404/.472/.579

Rea, 20: .305/.342/.379
Pedroia, 20: .393/.502/.611
Pedroia, 20: (SAL - 50 AB): .400/.474/.560
Pedroia, 20: (FSL - 107 AB): .336/.417/.523

Rea, 21: .372/.443/.451
Pedroia, 21: AA/AAA

Rea, 22: .344/.412/.417
Pedroia, 22: AAA/MLB

by BobbyMac on May 30, 2025 1:18 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well...

While I think that (a) you have to take the best player available with the #1 overall pick and (b) that's Price IMO, I can see the arguments for the D'Rays opting for Wieters instead - they don't have any good catching prospects, and Navarro hasn't exactly been setting the Trop on fire. I can't, on the other hand, see any argument for Porcello over Price.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on May 24, 2025 4:48 PM EDT 0 recs

sergio pedroza was moved to C

earlier this season. i can't find any statistical evidence of this, though, and i'm too crunched for time to check the boxscores on milb.com.

bazardo, koronka, durbin, and madson
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by overlord on May 24, 2025 6:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

thats great but

ISOpedroza isnt very good.

by npurcell on May 24, 2025 6:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

.290/.400/.500 as a 23 year old in A+

not bad at all for a C/OF. he flat out rakes against RHP, and with his versatility, he's a hell of a package.

he does need to get bumped to AA by the all star break, though.

bazardo, koronka, durbin, and madson
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by overlord on May 24, 2025 8:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

verstality

hes a terrible outfielder. i dont know the reports on how he is doing at catcher but he is a future DH if he ever makes it. He always had excellent ISOs (hence the nickname ISOpedroza) but his inability to make contact to go with his lack of defensive position will hamper his ability to advance to the majors.

by npurcell on May 24, 2025 8:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pedroza as catcher

Pedroza has caught very little this year, fewer than 10 games I think. The rest of the time he has been a DH. It seems to me that whenever he has caught the other teams run wild. I have not really looked at his passed balls or how his pitchers do.

Going into May he was hitting below .150 with 0 home runs. He got hot and climbed over .300 briefly with 4 home runs, 3 in one game. The last few games he has been 0 fer and is back in the .280s or so.

by bobr on May 25, 2025 8:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

Workload

Anyone else concerned?

He's had some very high pitch counts the past two seasons, and has thrown an insane amount of innings when you add in his 45 IP with Team USA last summer and Vandy's upcoming postseason play.

I know, I know....rubber arm, and all that nonsense.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on May 24, 2025 5:01 PM EDT 0 recs

Response

Not concerned beyond the normal concerns for any young pitcher.

Good questions to ask here would include: how's he throwing at the end of games where he's thrown a lot of pitches? In particular, how does the velocity and movement on his fastball look, and do his mechanics look any different from when he was pitching in the middle of the game? The same questions apply to how he looks in starts after games in which he threw a high number of pitches.

If the answer to most/all of these questions is "nothing different", then we haven't much to worry about, I think.

by mrkupe on May 24, 2025 5:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

How does he strike out so many batters...

...? John doesn't make it sound like he has an electric.

I would personally like to thank Dave Littlefield for banishing the ghost of Scott Kazmir from Shea Stadium.

by uga007 on May 24, 2025 5:26 PM EDT 0 recs

Slider

BA said his slider is a 70 pitch. That's plus plus. That's how he K's so many guys.

by Tyler on May 24, 2025 5:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

A lefty

with a moving low to mid-90's fastball, great slider, and plus change can do a lot. Especially someone who can paint corners like Price.

Now here is something I want to know. There are some scouts who say Porcello has a higher ceiling than Price and other saying Price is the best pitching prospect to come out of the draft since Prior. What do you guys think?

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on May 24, 2025 5:30 PM EDT 0 recs

Porcello

does have a higher ceiling. He already gets his fastball up to 97, and could potentially add velocity because of his body type. I also read (straight from BA nothing of mine really) that if he gets better extension out of his delivery it would create more movement, and make his fastball even better. We'll see, he's got a long way to go.

Both of those statements could be true. While it seems Lincecum and Verlander turned out to be better prospects than I believe Price is, they both had significant questions about their command/control pre-draft. So Price could be the best pitching prospect since Prior (although I he's not quite on Prior's level as a prospect).

by Tyler on May 24, 2025 5:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

FYI

Porcello actually topped out at 100 in a recent relief appearance.

Also, I seem to remember a tidbit from BA on his perfect game where was hitting 98 even in the 6th or 7th inning

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on May 24, 2025 5:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

I have

The first and third pick in my dynasty league's upcoming June Draft so I am hoping I can snag Price and Porcello but I am trying to see who I should go after with the first.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on May 24, 2025 5:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks

I really like Porcello. It really is an amazing year for HS pitchers.

by Tyler on May 24, 2025 5:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

let me just ask this

just throwing this out there for discussion: what's the difference between david price and chuck lofgren?

by wily mo on May 24, 2025 5:30 PM EDT 0 recs

Response

Price has a better fastball, a better slider, comparable changeup. Price certainly has better command - I think he'd K more guys and walk fewer guys than Lofgren is at this point.

I don't see much of a comp there besides the obvious : they're both tall, lefty, athletic pitchers. Price is a potential top of the rotation guy. If everything works out for Lofgren, he's a taller version of Ted Lilly.

by mrkupe on May 24, 2025 5:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

comp

i only ask because this struck me -

john on price's fastball: 90-92, up to 94-95
john on lofgren's fastball: 89-93, up to 94-95 (from the book)

i don't know about lofgren's movement. price is described as having a plus slider, but it sounds like lofgren throws both a slider and a curve; neither of them really seem to have dynamite, blow-your-hair-back secondary pitches.

i'm sure price has the edge, but i'm not so sure their upsides are that different. they both feel like #2s to me.

i don't really like ted lilly as a comp for anybody because i feel like he underperforms his raw pitching ability for reasons that aren't physical.

by wily mo on May 24, 2025 6:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Price

BA said that Price's slider is rated as a 70 by scouts, and say it touches 87. That is indeed a blow-your-hair-back secondary pitch if that scouting report is accurate. That's not just a plus slider, it's plus plus according to them.

And if his slider is as good as advertised and his change really is plus, then his ceiling is easily a #1 (not saying he'll reach it, but it's there).

by Tyler on May 24, 2025 6:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

ok

if the slider's really a 70, that would certainly do it.

i haven't heard anybody except you describe the change as plus, though.

by wily mo on May 24, 2025 6:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Change

John said some scouts say it's plus, some say it's solid ML average. BA said in their scouting report that it was a plus. I'm not entirely sure I believe them, but that's what they said. If the scouting report they gave is accurate (I hope it is, but I'm not sure), then he's going to be an ace if he stays healthy.

by Tyler on May 24, 2025 8:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

Personal guess is that Lofgren's fastball has movement when it's in the lower end of that range, and tends to straight out in the higher end.

Price's slider is definitely plus. Lofgren's breaking stuff sounds decent but it's not on that sort of level.

Strictly speaking, Lilly doesn't make for a good comp for me, either. But the statistical track record compares pretty evenly for the two of them once you account for Lofgren being drafted out of HS and Lilly out of a CC. No, you're not going to find a precise fit but it's acceptable to me.

Lilly's a flyball pitcher with non-overwhelming stuff, manages to K a decent number of guys despite that. Shows a significantly higher BB/9 in the majors than he did in the minors, which probably can be attributed to his lack of pure stuff. Now, I do think Lofgren stands a good chance of being more durable than Lilly, but when all is said and done, I think the most likely scenario has his statistical record in the majors in terms of ratios looking an awful lot like Lilly's.

Considering that record has been good enough to get Lilly a $40 million contract, I'd say Lofgren would be doing okay for himself, eh?

by mrkupe on May 24, 2025 7:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

Velocity

I think John may have underrated Price's velocity a bit. In his scouting video - the pitches that I can identify as 4-seam fastballs come in at 92, 94, 94, and 95 (not to mention he tops out at 148!). That doesn't sound like sitting 90-92 and touching 95, it sounds like sitting between 92-95. I remember when he pitched against Nick Schmidt here at Baum Stadium, the comment on each pitcher's FB was that Price was consistently 2-3 MPH harder than Schmidt and Schmidt usually sits around 90. John's numbers, however, seem to match with BaseballAmerica's so who knows for sure.

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 25, 2025 4:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Miller

How does he compare to last year's top pitching prospect, also a tall lefty from that region - Andrew Miller?

by ian on May 24, 2025 5:37 PM EDT 0 recs

Price vs. Miller

Comparable fastballs, although I'd guess that Miller could probably run his a bit harder if he wanted. Both have great sliders. Price is more advanced with his changeup than Miller was at the same point. Price also shows better control.

I'd say Price makes for the better prospect, especially as he doesn't have the pitching mechanics issues that seem to make some folks squeamish. Not that it says anything bad about Miller - it's just that when you put everything together, Price could be a hell of a pitcher.

by mrkupe on May 24, 2025 5:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pitch counts?

I've heard that the D-Rays are a bit afraid of him because he's thrown so many pitches over the past few years in the middle of the injury nexus. And truth to that, John?

Yeah. Not so much.

by twentyseven on May 24, 2025 6:50 PM EDT 0 recs

Comp:

Not asking for a real serious projection here, but as I haven't seen him yet a comp would be helpful to me. Maybe Mark Mulder?

"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on May 24, 2025 7:45 PM EDT 0 recs

i know!

it has to be a comp to an african-american pitcher, right? :) and since he's a lefty, that narrows it down quite a lot.

cc sabathia
darren oliver

well, that just about says it all.

by jpahk on May 24, 2025 7:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

gary sheffield

sort of like sheffield as a pitcher

or david justice

by wily mo on May 24, 2025 8:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

nationality matters too?

damn....and I was about to compare him to Ntema Ndungidi....

I guess the only person left he reminds me of is Samuel L. Jackson, though softer spoken. The similarity in command is really what does it for me.

by bleedjaxblue on May 24, 2025 8:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

hmmm

CC isnt a bad comp for him actually except that CC didnt pitch in college and showed control issues coming up in the minors (119BB- 246IP). He DID however, show similar ability to dominate hitters.

So CC's arm with better command at the same age about covers it. Price is a HELL of a prospect and not at all comparable to Chuck Lofgren.

I think he could start the season for the D'Rays in 2008. Why wouldn't he? CC was a starter for Cleveland at age 21 and was not NEARLY as advanced as Price is...he pitched half a season at AA ball. Not saying Price coiuldn't use a half season at AA ball but, I am saying he could do as well as CC did in his rookie season (180IP-4.39 17-5)

casedog

by casejud on May 25, 2025 12:11 AM EDT up 0 recs

I was gonna say...

he's a much lighter, athletic version of CC.

And I don't think he'll take as long to reach his cieling, which CC is just starting to do the past year or two.

by SenorGato88 on May 25, 2025 12:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

last i checked

mark mulder was white. very white. i get the joke, but seriously, is that a good comp or not? mulder's repertoire was slightly different (he threw that bigger curve in addition to the slider) but both were tall lefties with mid-nineties heat coming out of college. mulder went #2 and Price will likely go #1. so in those ways they are comparable.

is there a better comp for price than mulder? who? and does he throw roughly on the same arm plane etc? these are the questions i'm asking, and i'm sure somebody who has seen him pitch can tell me.

"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on May 25, 2025 12:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

Look for yourself

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=price

I don't think he is THAT comparable to Mulder though the arm slots are similar if Im not mistaken. Thier other real good similarity is COMMAND. Notice how repeatable each pitch is as far as location and how he mixes it up ...inside, outside, high, low. Mulder was more outside, ouside with a great sinker or 2-seasmer or whatever but, he was more like Glavine. Price has sonme similarites but, is a better talent IMO. He's a strikout pitcher. Tring to think of a good recent comp...great command, dominant, durable

Im going to get KILLED for this but, how about Steve Carlton?

casedog

by casejud on May 25, 2025 1:07 AM EDT up 0 recs

great, thanks

i'm having trouble seeing the video (i'm guessing it's maybe because i'm using a mac?). i'll try again on a different computer, but thanks very much.

"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on May 25, 2025 2:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

shrek

when I see that picture of Price I just keep thinking his face, ears and body language reminds me of Shrek.

by im not new on May 24, 2025 11:59 PM EDT 0 recs

Maybe

But compare these two pics, they're practically twins.

Shrek

Bartolo Colon

"Aw, how could he (Jorge Orta) lose the ball in the sun, he's from Mexico."-Harry Caray

by gatling on May 25, 2025 1:36 AM EDT up 0 recs

Teams

I say the D-Rays are likely have to draft him. Problem may be money especially if Boras is his agent.

by dabeers on May 25, 2025 11:46 AM EDT 0 recs

Lucky for them

Boras is nowhere near Price, it's ironically Dewon Brazelton's agent who has good ties with the Rays acting as an advisor to Price.

by The Rocc on May 25, 2025 1:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

S.Kazmir, J.McGee, W.Davis, D.Price... Nice...

With Delmon Young, BJ Upton, E.Longoria, Crawford, R.Brignac, R.Baldelli in their future lineup, all they need is a dominating closer and they could content in AL East... Both Yankees and Red Sox are getting old... Yeah I know, they will both spend major $$$ to sign free agents, but I still like Ray's home grown talent...

by louief1 on May 25, 2025 12:49 PM EDT 0 recs