Daniel Cabrera and the K/BB Ratio from Hell

I think the ratio will show moderate improvement but I think you will see relatively more of the same. I think the spring 3:1 ratio is an aberration

It'll probably improve, just because it'd be hard to get worse, but I put a lot more stock in the 148 innings last year than the 22 this spring.

It could happen, I suppose, but I'm taking the "I'll believe it when I see it" position.

So he'll have to omprove.  If he get straightened, Watch Out!  But these are the O's we're talking about after all...

Was Cabrera a visa age-gain player?  Or did he really get signed at 20?

He's been moved very (overly) quickly, and the only time he got to repeat a level, he pushed his K/BB ratio to 2.75.

My guess is that he starts to trust his stuff (thanks possibly to Miller's mantra of working fast), and pushes his K/BB rate to somewhere between 2-1 and 2.5-1.  Improvement, but not to the ST level.  

He's never shown an ability to NOT walk guys, so long-term his success will probably become dependent on his ability to keep missing bats and avoiding HR's.

He showed a K/BB ratio of around 2 for over two years in the minors, before making the jump to MLB with only a few AA innings.

My guess is he'll get things "under control" again, and by that I mean not atrociously awful.  Especially with Ray Miller preaching "throw strikes--work fast."

My guess is he'll improve to 8K/9IP, 4BB/9IP, and a K/BB of 2.  I'm still not as excited about him as a lot of "real" analysts (Gammons, Scott Miller), at least not until he shows me something more, but I've some (perhaps naive) hope.

Won't ever get his control strightened out. I've seen it before with Matt Clement and many others. Victor Zambrano is fairly filthy, yet isn't all that useful because of the 100+ walks per season.

Speakin of the O's, how stunted is Majewski's development because of this labrum/cuff issue?

Hey, once Bruce Chen came to the Baltimore organization he found his command and stopped giving up gophers.  Just a conicidence?  I'm not sure.

but,
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2028294

Gammons says he has a new pitch.  Miller was famous for teaching the straight change, before he was a manager, to big league pitchers.  
I don't think this is a case of a mysterious influence by a pitching coach.  I think this is a case where Miller knows something about how to teach a particular pitch that can work for particular pitchers who lack some variety in their pitches.

If Cabrera was a change-speeds pitcher before, then there is no way Miller works any magic.  But he was fastball-slider pitcher with nothing else to call on.

Let's not forget we're talking about a player who made the jump from 27 AA innings straight to the big leagues for the rest of the season last year.  His minor-league record suggests a dramatic increase in his K-rate is in store.  While he'll probably continue to walk too many batters this year, I think 2:1 is a reasonable expectation.

I'm not so sure he'll attain the 2:1 ratio. But I do think he won't embarass himself this year. He gave up less hits/IP and didn't surrender alot of HR. He's tough to hit off. All he has to do is throw strikes, and he'll be great. I'll say he gets 1.5 K/BB ratio, but gives up even less hits/IP than last year, and ends up with an ERA in the ballpark of 4.50.

In Gammons lastest article, he stated that the Red Sox thought Cabrera was the best pitcher they faced this spring.

Its no coincidence that Cabrera and Erik Bedard had good springs. Ray Miller has had a tremendous affect on Cabrera and Bedard with their increased control and new changeups

i believe cabrera will make a drastic improvement.  i know before you start hating on my opinion you have to look at the facts. he had very little experince a horrible pitching coach to go to boot.  i am saying he will win about 14 games this year and although he might walk a few batters he has the mentality to get out of it which was proven last year.  i see him and his run support improving so dont count him out. bedard and cabrera are going to prove what they did in the spring can carry over in the season.

greenlantern said the main thing and that is his ability to learn the changeup being a fastball/slider guy last year.  If he can locate it and mix it in enough, he will improve greatly.  It won't hurt having Javy Lopez work with him either as the Braves pitchers were successful changing speeds all the time too.

...In his rookie year Pedro still with the BoSox commented on his good stuff and willingness to teach him his circle changeup during the offseason...the following offseason he did...since then, the changeup has been his sole live-or-die pitch...when it's consistently thrown for strikes he is an amazing pitcher to watch, although that has been rare...

...last year, his Twins start was a phenomenal thing to see...not because the raw stats say so (although they do) but they really belied the real story of that game...that was the first game where he cut loose and really threw the hardest any Os fan has seen from him...before that time, he would reach 95-97 mph...in that game he was hitting 98-100 mph throughout the game...and ever since that game, that's really where he operates...that day, the Twins batters looked completely helpless against him...

...the insane thing about Cabrera is that before his velocity increase, he was always said to have a curveball that was in the mid-80s...since the velocity increase, he's been throwing that same pitch with tons more oomph behind it making it more of a slider by virtue of its velocity (88-91 mph) but the arc is really more like a 11-5 curve...you couldn't really call it a slurve because it's just too hard a pitch and has too much break...I guess "power curve" fits...