Another Heyward Perspective (Bullpen Banter)

by JDSussman on Apr 1, 2026 12:23 AM EDT Comment 33 comments

NOTE: I took out the incorrect part about SUPER-TWO.

I was one of the people who really believed that Heyward would be in the minors to avoid super-two status. Here is my piece on Heyward. Enjoy (and feel free to tear it apart). If someone disagrees, feel free to contact me and write a rebuttal on our site.

5 days ago Bobby Cox named Jason Heyward, Bullpen Banter's number 2 prospect, the Atlanta Braves starting right fielder. Heyward is easily the best choice for the opening day starting job. He'll join Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera (left field platoon) and Nate McLouth (center field) to create a pretty potent offensive trio in the outfield. Seth Smith's total zone shows that Heyward will likely be the best defensive outfielder the Braves are going to start everyday. As good as Heyward is, McLouth and Diaz are pretty average.

Jason Heyward makes the Braves better in every way.

But, was it the right move?

The Talent

The decision to start Heyward in the majors from day one means that he'll be under the Braves' control until 2015 rather than 2016. CHONE predicts that Heyward will be worth 1.1 wins above replacement (WAR) over the course of the season, though I think he'll be worth 3 WAR (7.5 Batting, 10 Defense, 20 Replacement Level, - 7.5 Positional Adjustment). Three wins will absolutely help the Braves in their chase for the NL East title or the wild card. Though, even if Heyward meets my lofty expectations, what are the Braves gaining by having him start the year in right? Remember, WAR is wins over replacement level, not wins over Melky & Matt.

Lets say in order for the Braves to gain an extra year of Heyward he'll need him to have 200 plate appearances in the minor leagues, and then the organization will call him up on June 1st. If we prorate his WAR over those 200 plate appearances the Braves are gaining about a half a win (.5 WAR) by calling him up to start the year.

How much of an upgrade is that .5 WAR over what the Braves would get if they left him in the minors and had a full time Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera for the first two months? Last season, Melky was worth 1.7 WAR for the Yankees and Diaz was worth 3.7. CHONE predicts Cabrera will be worth a career best 3.3 WAR and Diaz will regress and be worth 1 WAR. I'm going to disagree slightly and say that Melky would be worth 3 WAR and Diaz will be worth 1.5 WAR (assuming they play the full season, which they won't.). If we prorate their two seasons to the time that Heyward could be in the minors the Braves would gain .5 WAR from Melky and .25 WAR from Diaz.

The combined .75 WAR from the two corner outfielders is slightly less than what we would expect from having Heyward and Cabrera/Diaz platoon. I'm guessing that platoon would be worth about .4 WAR (so added to Heyward we have .9 WAR over the first two months). The Braves are going to trade a year of Heyward at 26 for 200 plate appearances at 20. Gaining .15 WAR (.9 WAR - .75 WAR )could cost the Braves a lot of money.

Two final thoughts.

Heyward was born in New Jersey, but he played his high school baseball in Georgia. I'm thinking that he and the Braves work out a long term deal. He would be stupid to accept something as low as Evan Longoria did but I think he would be open to signing a team friendly deal. In fact, maybe the team is planning on offering a contract to Heyward so they knew this decision wouldn't matter.

The Braves also gain a lot of positive press for bringing up Heyward. Additionally, they'll sell a lot more seats (especially because he is a position player who plays daily). I think this was a great PR move for the organization, especially after they appeared cheap with the Javier Vazquez trade.

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Well thought and well argued.
I don’t necessarily agree with you on everything but rec’d nonetheless.

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by !Vive la Francoeur! on Apr 1, 2026 3:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1 rec'd

www.oriolesprospects.com

by ravensfan3 on Apr 1, 2026 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait, by giving him a -7.5 position adjustment you think he’s going to play 162 games in a corner. For some reason I’m doubting that will happen. I also doubt he’ll be plus +10 defensively in a corner, +5 seems more reasonable. It’s key to note CHONE has him at 340 PA in his 1.1 WAR while you seemingly have him at 700.

Projections for Heywards hitting:

CHONE: .258/.324/.416
ZiPS: .275/.341/.429
Oliver: .281/.341/.451

by bigboy1234 on Apr 1, 2026 12:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It made the math easier to go with 20 and -7.5

A round 3 is easier to work with.

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by JDSussman on Apr 1, 2026 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

however...

Defense: Given how well he has done with total zone, I don’t think +10 is crazy at all.

Playing time: Also, he easily should play 150+ games, so.. +20 isn’t 700 PA, it is 600. Which is very reasonable for him

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by JDSussman on Apr 1, 2026 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

“I don’t think +10 is crazy at all.”

Don’t think it’s crazy, but I think +5 is much more likely.

“he easily should play 150+ games”

Oh, really? FWIW the fans have him at 134, with not one person voting 150+, so you must not have voted, get over there and fill out a ballot! :)

“+20 isn’t 700 PA, it is 600”

Fangraphs doesn’t acknowledge a higher replacement level in the AL. They have +23.3/700 PA regardless of league. I believe +20 in the NL is 700 PA, in the AL 700 PA would be +25. Do you think the AL and NL are equal leagues?

by bigboy1234 on Apr 1, 2026 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That could also be because most expected him to start in the minors

I’m pretty sure I filled one out for him about a month ago assuming that he’d spend some time in AAA.

by jar75 on Apr 1, 2026 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure what you filled out, but it’s only been open a week now.

Voting started 3/24, Heyward named starting RF 3/26. Total 150+ votes to date, 0.

by bigboy1234 on Apr 1, 2026 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're talking about the fangraphs FANS projections right?

That’s been open since January I think. I filled out quite a few around that time. Unless they just added Heyward recently, in which case I haven’t filled one out for him.

And I just logged in to my fangraphs ID and I see that I haven’t filled one out for him, but that project has been going on for a while now.

by jar75 on Apr 1, 2026 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, no, those things are a joke. No offense to anyone who works on that, just my opinion and it’s a neat idea, but everything is way too optimistic and like you said why would I base playing time based on something not really really recent?

I’m talking about Tango’s “Community Playing Time Forecasts”

by bigboy1234 on Apr 1, 2026 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh alright

by jar75 on Apr 1, 2026 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question for you

Your quote here “Remember, WAR is wins over replacement level, not wins over Melky & Matt.”

Do you have a perspective on what their replacement value is? Would you be able to share that in some sort of numbers expected.

Because I would be surprised if replacement level wasn’t above or far above Melky & Matt.

Replacement level is very controversial for many of the different stats. Many/most use a number that is MLB average and then take about 80% value of that. That totally ignores the bell curve effect from stars. Thus having an average that is above the average ball player. Secondly, having a percentile of that then produces a replacement player value that is not only better than replacement but many times is better than average.

At least he is an OF.

For 1B they put the replacement level even higher which is why 1B do horribly for WAR and other stats like WIN SHARES compared to their true value. Of course in order to make catchers look even better they put the catcher replacement level much lower than the average.

but I digress …

by pedrophile on Apr 1, 2026 2:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

I’m not sure I follow. The concept of a replacement player is someone who can be acquired at league minimum without having to give up any value. It is calculated in WAR as -20 runs per 600 PAs.

Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera are both well above replacement level, CHONE estimates them to be: 1.0 wins for Matt Diaz in 350 PAs and 3.3 wins for Melky in 562 PAs.

Each position has a different positional adjustments (all per 162 games):

C: +12.5
1B: -12.5
2B: +2.5
SS: +7.5
3B: +2.5
COF: -7.5
CF: +2.5
DH: -17.5

First basemen “do horribly for WAR” because they add minimal defensive value since they’re playing the easiest defensive position on the field. This is why a prospect has to be an elite hitter to be a good 1B prospect (and why I continually voice my dissent when guys like Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso or Freddie Freeman are placed in the top 35). What exactly do you think their true value is?

by jar75 on Apr 1, 2026 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think positional scarcity has little to no value

Unless you are the Yankees or in a 10 team mixed league where it is key.

Take a look at the Twins. Having Mauer should have huge positional value. And they take advantage of it how? There are many big holes in their lineup. So if he was another position and a Punto or other scrub was playing catcher how would they be better?

Even the Yankees have Gardner at LF. So are they taking advantage of any positional value?

Right now the only positional value I believe in (for real world teams) is your defensive value above average (or below average). And I wouldn’t disagree that key positions probably would have a higher range above and below the average defensive value.

by pedrophile on Apr 1, 2026 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure what your asking/

Most of the piece is talking about how his production isn’t going to be THAT much better than Matt and Melky’s production?

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by JDSussman on Apr 1, 2026 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

point being if you are going to use WAR

or another stat to evaluate the difference between the players it’s probably best to know 100% the ins and outs of the stat. WAR, win shares, and other stats like that all have value but also have serious flaws.

Also, at one point he averages the two players WAR if they were being platooned. This is very odd. It should improve the WAR for the higher rating. ie if Melky has a .5 WAR then presumably he would have something like a .6 vs RH and a .2 vs LF giving a .5 (more atbats vs RH). And Diaz would presumably have a higher WAR vs. LH so the new WAR should go up not down. Basic math here. Not to criticize but if you are writing an article solely based on math (and stats) then at least this should be accurate.

Here is where I’m coming from. Heyward has the chance to be a monster this year. While he might struggle I don’t think anyone believes he is going to be as bad as or even in the ballpark of Melky’s career average 716 OPS. So if you are going to ignore all scouting and base it on stats please have a really compelling argument stat wise.

by pedrophile on Apr 4, 2026 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again...

I do know the ins an outs of the stat. So if you have a question, then please ask it.

Secondly, I took the platoon into account.

Lastly, “Basic math here.” Is a ridiculous thing to say, frankly.

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by JDSussman on Apr 4, 2026 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

then how do you get the .4 for the platoon

if Melky was good for .5 on his own and Diaz has killed lefties so I would expect the WAR for the platoon to be higher than the .5. Thus the simple math comment.

As far as the WAR for Melky goes, how is the D figured in? Are they using his time in CF or only as a corner OF?

by pedrophile on Apr 5, 2026 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense + Platoon

CHONE projects Melky as a +8 corner. To the best of my knowledge, like the way the positional adjustments were created, CHONE used how Melky played in center and then looked at how well others have moved from center to LF to come up with the projection. Though, I do believe the CHONE’s projection for Melky is way to high. I contacted Seth Smith about it a few days ago, and am awaiting a response.

If we give Heyward 3 WAR then for 1/6 of the season (though one could argue he would be out for 2/6 of the year) he’d be work .5 WAR over that period of time. Over that same period of time, similar to what you said, you won’t have half the ABs going to Melky and half to Diaz. So if we assume that its a 60/40 playing time split then you’ll get .3 WAR from Melky and .1 WAR for Diaz, or .4 WAR for both of them. Added to Heyward, thats .9 WAR which is a .15 difference than if Diaz and Melky were both playing 100% of the time (.25 + .5 WAR).

If we go with the 1/3 of the season then Heyward if worth 1 WAR, and the Melky Diaz platoon is worth .8 WAR (total of 1.8 WAR). That versus a full time of of Diaz (.5 WAR) and Melky (1 WAR) is still just .3 WAR better.

Now, as you mentioned earlier, Heyward does have huge potential. I think 3 WAR in his first season in generous, but if you gave him 6 WAR (which is a monstrous rookie year) your still only looking at a 1.3 WAR difference over the first third of the season. Rather than having him for an entire year at 6 WAR in 2016.

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by JDSussman on Apr 5, 2026 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure how Seth Smith is going to help you here…

by bigboy1234 on Apr 5, 2026 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

sean*

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by JDSussman on Apr 5, 2026 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WAR

so when you added the two WAR did you take into account one would be facing RHP and the other mostly LHP? Especially since Diaz has very pronounced splits.

by pedrophile on Apr 6, 2026 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is an excellent series that deals with most of the questions you’re asking:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues

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by alskor on Apr 6, 2026 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

question for you

I’ve read a decent amount on defensive metrics. But I couldn’t find anything that explained how it wasn’t just a glorified version of fielding percentage.

It seemed to me all of them look at the balls they catch and use zones (for the ZR) and then rate each zone and come up with some factor. How do they differentiate a ball caught 3 zones over that was a lazy fly from a ball that was a line drive that actually challenged the fielder? From what I’ve seen they don’t use the position of the fielder when the ball was struck, they don’t use the trajectory of the ball, and they don’t have time data. So if there is no xy coordinates of both where the fielder started and ended up along with time data (or velocity and trajectory) then we can’t truly determine the quality of the defender. Doesn’t it strike you as odd that almost always the defensive metrics for CF have the best rankings in parks like Seattle or other big parks? Even an advanced metric will always heavily favour fielders in big parks, fielders with weaker players beside them, fielders with pitchers that induce softly hit balls, and some amount of luck.

I’m not against metrics. And when we finally get a stat that combines all the factors I mention and evaluates fielders that way I will be on board.

Until then I think it’s crazy to blindly rank based on WAR or other similar stats.

but hey, convince me otherwise. I’m willing to listen. And when I get off work I will check out the link.

by pedrophile on Apr 6, 2026 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

UZR from MGL

Part 1

Part 2

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by JDSussman on Apr 6, 2026 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok, I've read the links

thanks for the link.

Can you answer any of the questions I had above? From reading the article it didn’t answer any of my concerns for this “stat”.

Further there are serious concerns about the data source. From what I’ve read many of the people inputting the data are watching games on tv and are typically handling local games. It doesn’t seem like they are professionally trained, they have access to poor angles if it’s tv based, and there is a strong possibility of bias if they are handling local games.

by pedrophile on Apr 7, 2025 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RE

How do they differentiate a ball caught 3 zones over that was a lazy fly from a ball that was a line drive that actually challenged the fielder?

Answer: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-21_0/

Further there are serious concerns about the data source. From what I’ve read many of the people inputting the data are watching games on tv and are typically handling local games. It doesn’t seem like they are professionally trained, they have access to poor angles if it’s tv based, and there is a strong possibility of bias if they are handling local games.

Answer: UZR on Fangraphs
STATS Inc.
Baseball Information Solutions

These two organizations are very well respected.

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by JDSussman on Apr 7, 2025 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've read those already :)

And from what I read they use “stringers” who decide which zone the ball was hit into and how hard it was hit. Further they watch from tv and watch local games.

I have read quite a bit on these subjects, and I still don’t have a lot of faith in defensive metrics. They have come a long way but they have an awful long way to go IMO.

by pedrophile on Apr 7, 2025 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

Agree to disagree.

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by JDSussman on Apr 7, 2025 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm waiting for

them to get actual times (contact of ball and catch) as well as xy coordinates of fielder position and where ball was caught. Once we have that type of information then we are cooking with fire :)

by pedrophile on Apr 7, 2025 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

hit and field f/x are on the way..

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by JDSussman on Apr 7, 2025 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

basically

this is not a financial decision, at all….

bobby’s last year in the majors, hometown boy, performance producing at the hype level…to make arguments of melky/diaz is just adding words to the internet because in the end, that was not a real consideration….schafer was also ready last spring before an injury bit him…

bobby has an odd rep as being afraid of the rookies, but i think going back, you’d find him much more willing than most to give a rookie a chance….since 1990, bobby has had a rookie of the year in 1990 (David Justice) and 2000 (David Justice), and also top 5 ROY choices in 1991 (Brian Hunter), 1993 (Greg McMichael), 1994 (Ryan Klesko), 1995 (Chipper Jones), 1997 (Andruw Jones), 1998 (Kerry Ligtenberg), 2002 (Damian Moss), 2005 (Jeff Francoeur), 2008 (Jair Jurrjens), and 2009 (Tommy Hanson)….he’s also had 3 others get votes in ROY voting….

anyone truly surprised by this decision knows very little about the braves and the way they run their ballclub….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Apr 8, 2025 12:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I didn't realize that I wrote this is what the Braves would do...

This was a look at what the two options were, and what the outcome of each could be. Regardless of the outcome decision (which we now know) it can’t be looked at in a bubble and has clear financial implications. To ignore them is truly an ignorant way to review baseball decisions.

Again as I said,

Jason Heyward makes the Braves better in every way.

But, having him play an extra 200 AB in 2010 rather than have him for a full season prior to his prime in 2016 is not a good decision, and I think I argued that well and was not “adding words to the internet”.

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by JDSussman on Apr 8, 2025 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs