Leaderboard Surprises - Home Runs

Everyone does it. Or at least that's what I tell myself whenever I comb through the various league leaders in my favorite stats. I love looking at leaderboards to see who is having themselves a most excellent season. It's a good way to not let anyone sneak up on you as well. I routinely find the best statistical performers then scour the web and my sources for scouting reports to see if this is the real deal or not. Sometimes it works well, other times it just gives you false hope, especially if he's a member of your favorite team's system. The new Leaderboard Surprises series will go through a few stats and give you a quick background on the guys you may not know much about.

With the help of Baseball Reference and the 2014 Baseball Prospect Book (which you can buy now!), I give you some of the surprises atop the leaderboards.

Home Runs

Well, isn't it obvious who's going to be at the top of this one? It's Joey Gallo and his 12 boom shots. For the handy table below, I've removed Mexican League players and guys over 28 years old (sorry, Brad Snyder).

You can really break this up into three groups - the stars, the "veterans", and the surprises. The group of Evans, Martinez, Blanks, Roller and Jimenez are all a bit long in the tooth at this point to really be considered prospects and a few have MLB service time under their belt. Then you have your star prospects in Gallo, Singleton, McMahon, Bryant, Pederson, and Dahl. The surprises here would have to be Duvall, O'Brien, Kivlehan, Miller, Drury, Hawkins, and Ramsey. Let's take a quick look at these guys.

Adam Duvall

Taken in the 11th round of the 2010 draft from the University of Louisville, Duvall has always shown power, scouts just expected it not to play at higher levels. Well, he's at AAA now and he's still mashing. As John notes in the 2014 Baseball Prospect Book,

...he doesn't have great tools, but he can thump the ball and is particularly effective against left-handed pitching. His athletic limitations show up on defense where he's merely mediocre at third base. ...I rather like him and think he could be a useful asset... Grade C+

Peter O'Brien

I became a big fan of O'Brien last year as he hit 34 extra base hits in just 53 games in the South Atlantic, including 11 home runs. The now 6'5, 225 lb Miami native was taken in the 3rd round by the Rockies in 2011 from Bethune-Cookman, but re-entered the draft the next year and was selected by the Yankees a round earlier after playing with the Miami Hurricanes. John's perspective on his offense -

His strength has never been doubted, but scouts harbored doubts about a long swing and his ability to make contact against advanced pitching. It does look like a potential problem given his high strikeout rate, but this is a guy who should not be expected to bat .300 and he's got enough pop to be quite valuable even with a low batting average...If O'Brien continues to hit, and I suspect he'll hit for power at any level, he will likely end up as trade bait. Grade C+

Patrick Kivlehan

John actually sums Kivlehan's history up quite well, so I'll defer to his note in the book.

A fourth round pick in 2012 out of Rutgers, Kivlehan played four years of college football and is quite inexperienced, as college draftees go. All the more reason to be impressed with his '13 season...The Cal League environment could mask some flaws but scouting reports indicate that he made real progress crafting his swing: note the sharp reduction in his strike out rate compared to what he did at Everett after being drafted. I will hold him steady with a Grade C+ pending some non-Cal League data, but he does have an impressive ceiling.

Brandon Drury

A 13th round pick way back in 2010, Drury came out of Grants Pass High School in Oregon and joined the Braves organization. He was part of the package sent to the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton by Atlanta after the rough 2012 John talks about. Drury's 51 doubles in 2013 were tops in all of minor league baseball.

Well let’s just forget 2012 ever happened. Brandon Drury had an excellent 2011 season, hitting .347 in the Appalachian League to near-universal praise for his hitting skills. However, he was horrid in the Sally League in ’12 and, despite happy noises about how much they still liked him, the Braves sent him to Arizona in the Justin Upton trade. Drury responded with a terrific ’13 campaign and has forced himself back onto the soundtrack. All aspects of his game improved: he showed more power, did a much better job controlling the strike zone, and was much better on defense as well, demonstrating improved reliability and sufficient range to remain at third base. The caveat here is that he was repeating Low-A, although at age 20 (21 in August) he was still age-appropriate for the level. Scouts also noted that his swing looked much better; certainly his batting eye improved, and perhaps he simply needed different coaching than what the Braves provided. There’s just enough remaining doubt for me to go with a Grade B- instead of a straight B, but overall Drury regained miles of lost ground.

Courtney Hawkins

Hawkins put himself on everyone's radar when he decided to show off his athleticism and pop off a back flip in dress shoes and a suit on live TV. This was back in 2012 during the MLB Network draft special after being selected 13th overall by the White Sox out of high school in Texas. John's take -

Apparently the White Sox read a lot of Nietzsche in college: they figured if the Carolina League didn’t kill Hawkins, it would make him stronger. Of course the problem with Nietzsche’s aphorism is that it isn’t true: some problems don’t kill you but do permanently weaken you. So the question stands: will rushing Courtney Hawkins to High-A and leaving him there, even though he was struggling terribly, hurt or harm his long-term development? The tools that made him a first-round pick in 2012 were obvious: raw power, a strong throwing arm, a decent level of overall athleticism, good work ethic. He did hit 19 homers against older competition. But the problems in his approach outweighed the tools: he was helpless against most breaking pitches, but had his share of difficulties against fastballs as well. Serious issues of pitch recognition combined with complex swing mechanics resulted in a lost season. So what do we do with his grade? Keep in mind that he was just 19 years old, equivalent to a college freshman, and playing in a league in which he had no business. If he keeps himself together psychologically and emotionally, he has a chance to rebound and use this experience as something to build on and learn from. But grade-wise, it is a tough call. I can’t rate him as a B or higher given how badly he struggled, even if it wasn’t his fault that the Sox pushed him too fast. I think a drop down to a high-ceiling Grade C+ is appropriate.

James Ramsey

Seen as a seemingly safe, polished college bat coming out of Florida State, he signed for under-slot deal with the Cardinals. The team re-allocated his bonus pool money from the 23rd overall pick, the first of four first round or supplemental first round picks St. Louis had that year, and used it to also sign Stephen Piscotty, Patrick Wisdom and Steve Bean. John goes into more detail about Ramsey here.

Drafted in the first round out of Florida State in 2012, Ramsey has average tools: average power, average speed, average throwing arm. Scouts love his work ethic, however, and give him more slack than other players with similar performance but average tools tend to get. He’s patient and will take a walk, but his strikeout rate was uncomfortably high in Double-A and his overall production has been a little disappointing in my view, at least given the expectations he generated in college. I still think he profiles as a fourth outfielder. Grade C+.