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Everyone does it. Or at least that's what I tell myself whenever I comb through the various league leaders in my favorite stats. I love looking at leaderboards to see who is having themselves a most excellent season. It's a good way to not let anyone sneak up on you as well. I routinely find the best statistical performers then scour the web and my sources for scouting reports to see if this is the real deal or not. Sometimes it works well, other times it just gives you false hope, especially if he's a member of your favorite team's system. The new Leaderboard Surprises series will go through a few stats and give you a quick background on the guys you may not know much about.
With the help of Baseball Reference and the 2014 Baseball Prospect Book (which you can buy now!), I give you some of the surprises atop the leaderboards.
Home Runs
Well, isn't it obvious who's going to be at the top of this one? It's Joey Gallo and his 12 boom shots. For the handy table below, I've removed Mexican League players and guys over 28 years old (sorry, Brad Snyder).
Rk | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Joey Gallo | 20 | MYR | CARL | A+ | TEX | 12 |
2 | Jon Singleton | 22 | OKC | PCL | AAA | HOU | 11 |
3 | Adam Duvall | 25 | FRE | PCL | AAA | SFG | 10 |
4 | Nick Evans | 28 | REN | PCL | AAA | ARI | 10 |
5 | J.D. Martinez | 26 | TOL | IL | AAA | DET | 10 |
6 | Ryan McMahon | 19 | AVL | SALL | A | COL | 10 |
7 | Peter O'Brien | 23 | Yankees (Tampa, FL)">TAM | FLOR | A+ | NYY | 10 |
11 | Kyle Blanks | 27 | ELP | PCL | AAA | SDP | 9 |
12 | Kris Bryant | 22 | KNX | SOUL | AA | CHC | 9 |
14 | Patrick Kivlehan | 24 | HDS | CALL | A+ | SEA | 9 |
16 | Brandon Miller | 24 | Nationals (Woodbridge, VA)">POT | CARL | A+ | WSN | 9 |
18 | Joc Pederson | 22 | ABQ | PCL | AAA | LAD | 9 |
19 | Kyle Roller | 26 | TRE | EL | AA | NYY | 9 |
23 | David Dahl | 20 | AVL | SALL | A | COL | 8 |
24 | Brandon Drury | 21 | VIS | CALL | A+ | ARI | 8 |
28 | Courtney Hawkins | 20 | WSM | CARL | A+ | CHW | 8 |
30 | Luis Jimenez | 26 | SLK | PCL | AAA | LAA | 8 |
33 | James Ramsey | 24 | Cardinals (Springfield, MO)">SPD | TL | AA | STL | 8 |
You can really break this up into three groups - the stars, the "veterans", and the surprises. The group of Evans, Martinez, Blanks, Roller and Jimenez are all a bit long in the tooth at this point to really be considered prospects and a few have MLB service time under their belt. Then you have your star prospects in Gallo, Singleton, McMahon, Bryant, Pederson, and Dahl. The surprises here would have to be Duvall, O'Brien, Kivlehan, Miller, Drury, Hawkins, and Ramsey. Let's take a quick look at these guys.
Adam Duvall
Year
Age
AgeDif
Tm
Lg
Lev
Aff
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
HBP
2010
21
-0.3
Salem-Keizer
NORW
A-
SFG
54
217
192
30
47
10
1
4
18
2
3
14
45
.245
.318
.370
.688
7
2011
22
0.6
Augusta
SALL
A
SFG
116
510
431
69
123
30
4
22
87
4
4
59
98
.285
.385
.527
.912
14
2012
23
0.4
Giants (San Jose, CA)">San Jose
CALL
A+
SFG
134
598
534
101
138
24
4
30
100
8
2
47
116
.258
.327
.487
.814
10
2013
24
-0.4
Richmond
EL
AA
SFG
105
430
385
61
97
23
4
17
58
2
1
35
72
.252
.320
.465
.785
5
2014
25
-1.7
Fresno
PCL
AAA
SFG
34
145
132
24
34
3
1
10
30
2
0
12
29
.258
.324
.523
.847
1
5 Seasons
443
1900
1674
285
439
90
14
83
293
18
10
167
360
.262
.340
.481
.821
37
Taken in the 11th round of the 2010 draft from the University of Louisville, Duvall has always shown power, scouts just expected it not to play at higher levels. Well, he's at AAA now and he's still mashing. As John notes in the 2014 Baseball Prospect Book,
...he doesn't have great tools, but he can thump the ball and is particularly effective against left-handed pitching. His athletic limitations show up on defense where he's merely mediocre at third base. ...I rather like him and think he could be a useful asset... Grade C+
Peter O'Brien
Year
Age
AgeDif
Tm
Lg
Lev
Aff
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
2012
21
-0.0
2 Teams
2 Lgs
A--Rk
NYY
52
227
212
29
45
10
0
10
34
0
1
10
62
.212
.256
.401
.656
2012
21
1.3
Yankees
GULF
Rk
NYY
4
14
14
2
5
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
.357
.357
.500
.857
2012
21
-0.1
Staten Island
NYPL
A-
NYY
48
213
198
27
40
8
0
10
32
0
1
10
61
.202
.249
.394
.643
2013
22
-0.3
2 Teams
2 Lgs
A+-A
NYY
119
506
447
78
130
39
4
22
96
0
1
41
134
.291
.350
.544
.893
2013
22
0.4
Charleston
SALL
A
NYY
53
226
194
47
63
22
1
11
41
0
0
22
58
.325
.394
.619
1.012
2013
22
-0.8
Tampa
FLOR
A+
NYY
66
280
253
31
67
17
3
11
55
0
1
19
76
.265
.314
.486
.800
2014
23
0.3
Tampa
FLOR
A+
NYY
30
119
112
19
36
9
1
10
19
0
0
4
29
.321
.353
.688
1.040
3 Seasons
201
852
771
126
211
58
5
42
149
0
2
55
225
.274
.325
.525
.850
Rk (1 season)
Rk
4
14
14
2
5
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
.357
.357
.500
.857
A- (1 season)
A-
48
213
198
27
40
8
0
10
32
0
1
10
61
.202
.249
.394
.643
A (1 season)
A
53
226
194
47
63
22
1
11
41
0
0
22
58
.325
.394
.619
1.012
A+ (2 seasons)
A+
96
399
365
50
103
26
4
21
74
0
1
23
105
.282
.326
.548
.874
I became a big fan of O'Brien last year as he hit 34 extra base hits in just 53 games in the South Atlantic, including 11 home runs. The now 6'5, 225 lb Miami native was taken in the 3rd round by the Rockies in 2011 from Bethune-Cookman, but re-entered the draft the next year and was selected by the Yankees a round earlier after playing with the Miami Hurricanes. John's perspective on his offense -
His strength has never been doubted, but scouts harbored doubts about a long swing and his ability to make contact against advanced pitching. It does look like a potential problem given his high strikeout rate, but this is a guy who should not be expected to bat .300 and he's got enough pop to be quite valuable even with a low batting average...If O'Brien continues to hit, and I suspect he'll hit for power at any level, he will likely end up as trade bait. Grade C+
Patrick Kivlehan
Year
Age
AgeDif
Tm
Lg
Lev
Aff
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
2012
22
0.9
Everett
NORW
A-
SEA
72
316
282
46
85
17
3
12
52
14
1
19
93
.301
.373
.511
.883
2013
23
0.8
2 Teams
2 Lgs
A+-A
SEA
128
549
489
74
148
25
3
16
90
15
6
43
107
.303
.366
.464
.830
2013
23
1.7
Clinton
MIDW
A
SEA
60
247
223
26
63
12
1
3
31
5
3
17
42
.283
.344
.386
.730
2013
23
0.1
High Desert
CALL
A+
SEA
68
302
266
48
85
13
2
13
59
10
3
26
65
.320
.384
.530
.914
2014
24
1.3
High Desert
CALL
A+
SEA
34
157
142
24
40
9
2
9
35
2
0
12
32
.282
.331
.563
.895
3 Seasons
234
1022
913
144
273
51
8
37
177
31
7
74
232
.299
.363
.494
.857
A- (1 season)
A-
72
316
282
46
85
17
3
12
52
14
1
19
93
.301
.373
.511
.883
A (1 season)
A
60
247
223
26
63
12
1
3
31
5
3
17
42
.283
.344
.386
.730
A+ (2 seasons)
A+
102
459
408
72
125
22
4
22
94
12
3
38
97
.306
.366
.542
.908
John actually sums Kivlehan's history up quite well, so I'll defer to his note in the book.
A fourth round pick in 2012 out of Rutgers, Kivlehan played four years of college football and is quite inexperienced, as college draftees go. All the more reason to be impressed with his '13 season...The Cal League environment could mask some flaws but scouting reports indicate that he made real progress crafting his swing: note the sharp reduction in his strike out rate compared to what he did at Everett after being drafted. I will hold him steady with a Grade C+ pending some non-Cal League data, but he does have an impressive ceiling.
Brandon Drury
Year
Age
AgeDif
Tm
Lg
Lev
Aff
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
2010
17
-2.7
Braves (, FL)">Braves
GULF
Rk
ATL
52
207
192
20
38
7
1
3
17
2
2
9
50
.198
.248
.292
.539
2011
18
-2.5
Danville
APPY
Rk
ATL
63
278
265
40
92
23
0
8
54
3
0
6
35
.347
.367
.525
.891
2012
19
-2.7
Rome
SALL
A
ATL
123
480
445
47
102
22
3
6
51
3
4
20
73
.229
.270
.333
.603
2013
20
-1.3
South Bend
MIDW
A
ARI
134
583
526
78
159
51
4
15
85
1
1
47
92
.302
.362
.500
.862
2014
21
-1.7
Visalia
CALL
A+
ARI
34
155
141
24
41
11
0
8
29
3
1
12
28
.291
.348
.539
.887
5 Seasons
406
1703
1569
209
432
114
8
40
236
12
8
94
278
.275
.322
.435
.757
Rk (2 seasons)
Rk
115
485
457
60
130
30
1
11
71
5
2
15
85
.284
.316
.427
.743
A (2 seasons)
A
257
1063
971
125
261
73
7
21
136
4
5
67
165
.269
.321
.423
.744
A+ (1 season)
A+
34
155
141
24
41
11
0
8
29
3
1
12
28
.291
.348
.539
.887
A 13th round pick way back in 2010, Drury came out of Grants Pass High School in Oregon and joined the Braves organization. He was part of the package sent to the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton by Atlanta after the rough 2012 John talks about. Drury's 51 doubles in 2013 were tops in all of minor league baseball.
Well let’s just forget 2012 ever happened. Brandon Drury had an excellent 2011 season, hitting .347 in the Appalachian League to near-universal praise for his hitting skills. However, he was horrid in the Sally League in ’12 and, despite happy noises about how much they still liked him, the Braves sent him to Arizona in the Justin Upton trade. Drury responded with a terrific ’13 campaign and has forced himself back onto the soundtrack. All aspects of his game improved: he showed more power, did a much better job controlling the strike zone, and was much better on defense as well, demonstrating improved reliability and sufficient range to remain at third base. The caveat here is that he was repeating Low-A, although at age 20 (21 in August) he was still age-appropriate for the level. Scouts also noted that his swing looked much better; certainly his batting eye improved, and perhaps he simply needed different coaching than what the Braves provided. There’s just enough remaining doubt for me to go with a Grade B- instead of a straight B, but overall Drury regained miles of lost ground.
Courtney Hawkins
Year
Age
AgeDif
Tm
Lg
Lev
Aff
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
2012
18
-2.8
3 Teams
3 Lgs
Rk-A-A+
CHW
59
249
229
39
65
15
3
8
33
11
5
11
56
.284
.324
.480
.804
2012
18
-2.2
White Sox (Bristol, VA)">Bristol
APPY
Rk
CHW
38
159
147
25
40
8
1
3
16
8
2
7
37
.272
.314
.401
.716
2012
18
-3.7
Kannapolis
SALL
A
CHW
16
72
65
11
20
5
2
4
15
3
2
4
17
.308
.352
.631
.983
2012
18
-4.6
Winston-Salem
CARL
A+
CHW
5
18
17
3
5
2
0
1
2
0
1
0
2
.294
.294
.588
.882
2013
19
-3.8
Winston-Salem
CARL
A+
CHW
103
425
383
48
68
16
3
19
62
10
5
29
160
.178
.249
.384
.633
2014
20
-3.0
Winston-Salem
CARL
A+
CHW
28
117
102
18
27
6
0
8
31
1
2
12
32
.265
.342
.559
.901
3 Seasons
190
791
714
105
160
37
6
35
126
22
12
52
248
.224
.286
.440
.726
Rk (1 season)
Rk
38
159
147
25
40
8
1
3
16
8
2
7
37
.272
.314
.401
.716
A (1 season)
A
16
72
65
11
20
5
2
4
15
3
2
4
17
.308
.352
.631
.983
A+ (3 seasons)
A+
136
560
502
69
100
24
3
28
95
11
8
41
194
.199
.270
.426
.696
Hawkins put himself on everyone's radar when he decided to show off his athleticism and pop off a back flip in dress shoes and a suit on live TV. This was back in 2012 during the MLB Network draft special after being selected 13th overall by the White Sox out of high school in Texas. John's take -
Apparently the White Sox read a lot of Nietzsche in college: they figured if the Carolina League didn’t kill Hawkins, it would make him stronger. Of course the problem with Nietzsche’s aphorism is that it isn’t true: some problems don’t kill you but do permanently weaken you. So the question stands: will rushing Courtney Hawkins to High-A and leaving him there, even though he was struggling terribly, hurt or harm his long-term development? The tools that made him a first-round pick in 2012 were obvious: raw power, a strong throwing arm, a decent level of overall athleticism, good work ethic. He did hit 19 homers against older competition. But the problems in his approach outweighed the tools: he was helpless against most breaking pitches, but had his share of difficulties against fastballs as well. Serious issues of pitch recognition combined with complex swing mechanics resulted in a lost season. So what do we do with his grade? Keep in mind that he was just 19 years old, equivalent to a college freshman, and playing in a league in which he had no business. If he keeps himself together psychologically and emotionally, he has a chance to rebound and use this experience as something to build on and learn from. But grade-wise, it is a tough call. I can’t rate him as a B or higher given how badly he struggled, even if it wasn’t his fault that the Sox pushed him too fast. I think a drop down to a high-ceiling Grade C+ is appropriate.
James Ramsey
Year
Age
AgeDif
Tm
Lg
Lev
Aff
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
2012
22
-0.8
Palm Beach
FLOR
A+
STL
56
247
210
36
48
9
3
1
14
10
2
33
59
.229
.333
.314
.648
2013
23
-0.8
3 Teams
3 Lgs
AA-A+-AAA
STL
112
496
411
78
109
16
4
16
51
9
4
65
121
.265
.373
.440
.814
2013
23
0.2
Palm Beach
FLOR
A+
STL
18
77
61
17
22
5
2
1
7
1
0
12
12
.361
.481
.557
1.038
2013
23
-1.0
Springfield
TL
AA
STL
93
416
347
61
87
11
2
15
44
8
4
53
108
.251
.356
.424
.780
2013
23
-3.9
Memphis
PCL
AAA
STL
1
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
.000
.000
.000
.000
2014
24
-0.1
Springfield
TL
AA
STL
32
141
123
26
35
3
1
8
22
2
1
15
28
.285
.376
.520
.896
3 Seasons
200
884
744
140
192
28
8
25
87
21
7
113
208
.258
.363
.418
.781
A+ (2 seasons)
A+
74
324
271
53
70
14
5
2
21
11
2
45
71
.258
.368
.369
.737
AA (2 seasons)
AA
125
557
470
87
122
14
3
23
66
10
5
68
136
.260
.361
.449
.810
AAA (1 season)
AAA
1
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
.000
.000
.000
.000
Seen as a seemingly safe, polished college bat coming out of Florida State, he signed for under-slot deal with the Cardinals. The team re-allocated his bonus pool money from the 23rd overall pick, the first of four first round or supplemental first round picks St. Louis had that year, and used it to also sign Stephen Piscotty, Patrick Wisdom and Steve Bean. John goes into more detail about Ramsey here.
Drafted in the first round out of Florida State in 2012, Ramsey has average tools: average power, average speed, average throwing arm. Scouts love his work ethic, however, and give him more slack than other players with similar performance but average tools tend to get. He’s patient and will take a walk, but his strikeout rate was uncomfortably high in Double-A and his overall production has been a little disappointing in my view, at least given the expectations he generated in college. I still think he profiles as a fourth outfielder. Grade C+.
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