Lucas Giolito out for season

by Savoy on Mar 7, 2026 4:15 PM EST

It looks as if Giolito is done for the season with a sprained ligament in his elbow but no surgery needed at this time.

http://losangeles.sbnation.com/2012/3/7/2852300/harvard-westlake-rhp-lucas-giolito-out-for-season

What do you think this does for the hopeful #1 pick in the draft:

A. Does he still end up being a 1st round pick & somebody later in the first throws a bunch of money at him to sign?

B. Does he drop out of sight from the draft & goes to college?

C. Does he drop out of the first but still ends up signing with someone who pays overslot?

This is certainly a blow as I was expecting the Astros to take a long, hard look at taking Giolito with pick 1.1. With Appel's results being so-so, who becomes the odds on favorite to become pick 1 in the draft? Zunino? Buxton? Marrero?

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This is awful news, as an Astros fan/baseball fan in general.

My guesses-

Giolito heads to UCLA, is the real deal and in a few years goes in the top 5 if not 1.1.

The race for the #1 pick race opens up in a big way, with the frontrunners being Gausman and Zunino. I think this may be the first time in awhile where we really don’t know who will go 1.1 until quite soon before the draft, if not draft day itself.

by kyuss94 on Mar 7, 2026 4:49 PM EST reply actions

This is good for the Astros.

Hopefully they will now select Zunnino.

by mr. maniac on Mar 7, 2026 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

This is not good for anybody.

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by DominicanDandy on Mar 7, 2026 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

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by OremLK on Mar 7, 2026 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by dbreer23 on Mar 7, 2026 9:52 PM EST up reply actions

I think you missed the point.

I’m not saying it is good for anybody to get hurt. I’m saying that its impact may be good for the Astros is the future, if they do take Zunnino since I believe Zunnino is easily the best player in the draft.

by mr. maniac on Mar 8, 2026 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

For all we know they were leaning Zunino with the 1st pick. That doesn’t mean that its good news that a potential 1st pick is out for the year. It takes another option out of the decision and thats never good. You want to evaluate them all then make the decision whomever that is.

Also you may like Zunino more and that may be the safest/best pick but Giolito is no slouch that would have been the worst pick they could made. This is injury just means that a talented player is probably out of the picture for the 1st pick and thats not good news for the Astros.

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by DominicanDandy on Mar 8, 2026 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

Excellent point

There’s always value in options

by MjwW on Mar 8, 2026 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

It is simply my opinion that Zunnino is a much better player.

If you were a fan of the Astros, and you 100% believed that Zunnino was a much better prospect, and you were afraid your team might not take him, wouldn’t you be a little relieved that the choice to select him is now a little more obvious?

by mr. maniac on Mar 8, 2026 6:42 PM EST up reply actions

As I said

They would evaluate them all then make the decision. If I was an Astros fan I would keep an open mind and would want to evaluate all the most talented players and then zero in on the player that I think is the best. I wouldn’t feel relieved that one of the top players in the draft is out. What if Giolito turns into an ace? are Astros fans now gonna feel relieved that he wasn’t in the picture for the 1-1 pick?

The pick was wide open so it wasn’t as if there were strong indications that the Astros liked Giolito. They are probably still evaluating everybody so even if you like Zunnino so much that you feel threaten by other talented players in the draft there wasn’t any indication to make me feel “relieved” that there is one less “threat.”

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by DominicanDandy on Mar 8, 2026 7:18 PM EST up reply actions

I see your point.

But we are arguing two different things. I WANT the Astros to succeed. I’m scared that taking Giolito with the first pick over Zunnino would be a fatal flaw, especially considering the poor track record of RHP out of HS.

They are only going to take one guy. There is a good chance I am wrong and Giolito will be the better player. But I really hope they take Zunnino. Giolito dropping makes the choice clearer.

I am also sure the Astros are 100% better at evaluating players than me. I still wish they would take Zunnino.

Now if Zunnino gets hurt, I would consider this a major blow for the Astros.

by mr. maniac on Mar 8, 2026 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

Ok, I understand that

But I do think its too early to have such a strong feeling either way. I don’t see a Bryce Haper/Strasburg talent where you have to have them. If you feel as strong about Zunnino as you say then I see your point.

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by DominicanDandy on Mar 8, 2026 10:17 PM EST up reply actions

If I was an Astros fan

I would not be arrogant enough to think that my player evaluation (based on seeing him how many times? and doing how much research?) were more informed than the team’s, who will get a ton of looks at hm and the other players. If they had the choice of Zunino and Giolito and chose Giolito (or any one else for that matter), then I would ask myself why I thought I knew better considering the massive asymmetries of infomation.

by MjwW on Mar 8, 2026 8:43 PM EST up reply actions

To clarify

Obviously you can have a preference. But being 100% that one guy is “the guy”, which implies that anyone else is the wrong choice is just crazy (given the aforementioned differences info, but also the inherent uncertainties).

by MjwW on Mar 8, 2026 8:44 PM EST up reply actions

"I am also sure the Astros are 100% better at evaluating players than me. I still wish they would take Zunnino"

But then again, it wouldn’t be the first time the smarter person was wrong (as in them being wrong).

by mr. maniac on Mar 9, 2026 12:01 AM EST up reply actions

It’s not a matter of smarter, it’s a matter of they will just have a lot more info on him, and a much more solid basis to make the decision. Doesn’t mean they will get it right, but some deference is probably owed. Unless you really think the process is wrong. For example, for years the Jays wouldn’t touch high schoolers. That process hurt them. They probably had solid info on the college guys, and some nice finds in later rounds (Marcum, Lind, etc), but shot themselves in the foot by excluding a ton of guys essentially before they started.

Didn’t see that first quote before I posted, they were essentially simultaneous - it was a response to the first. Also wasn’t a shot at you, it was answering the hypothetical you posed.

by MjwW on Mar 9, 2026 1:11 AM EST up reply actions

That makes no sense at all.

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by piazza62 on Mar 7, 2026 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

Wow just saw the news

Feel bad for the kid.

Right now everything would be speculation but I think its safe to assume that he’s not a candidate for the Astros or even the top 5.

My guess is that someone takes a flyer in the 1st round and then we’ll test the new draft rules.

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by DominicanDandy on Mar 7, 2026 5:41 PM EST reply actions

He's not going to sign if he gets drafted now

As it stands now a team will probably draft him late 1st round just on potential alone, but than he risks losing a huge signing bonus. Hopefully he recovers and kills it at UCLA, and gets drafted #1 overall next season.

by oriolekid on Mar 7, 2026 5:41 PM EST reply actions

If he goes to UCLA

He can’t reenter until 2014 or 2015 (not sure if he’d be eligible as a sophomore, but most aren’t so likely 2015)

by MjwW on Mar 7, 2026 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

He's one of the youngest players in the draft

so 2015.

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by DominicanDandy on Mar 7, 2026 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

Is it crazy that I want the Padres to ake him at 7?

I mean, since it’s not really a far fall they wouldn’t have to go ridiculously over slot to sign him. Or, well, I don’t know the slotting numbers. What’s the difference between 1-3 and 7?

by walnut falcons on Mar 7, 2026 6:54 PM EST reply actions

I'm with you and with the

Pirates at #8.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 5:39 AM EST up reply actions

Let's see how he looks in 6-10 weeks when he's scheduled to be ready to throw again

Teams should have ample time to work him out and see where he’s at. He may still be a top 5 selection.

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by Jeff Reese on Mar 7, 2026 7:28 PM EST reply actions

Just devastating news, for Astros, Twins, Mariners, and Orioles fans

This is especially tough on me as, being a Twins fan i felt there was a 50% or greater shot of him going to the Twins.
The Twins have come out and said they are putting a little more emphasis on hard throwing or power arms in the draft then usuall, Gioloto would have been the 1st step in that direction for them.

Tough tough news today for Astros and Twins fans, and for the Gioloto family in general that really is just too bad.

I’d look for him to take the college route now maybe in 3 years time (or less) he could build back up to a 1st rounder again.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 7, 2026 7:52 PM EST reply actions

Toronto has the #17 and #22 picks. They might take a chance on him at #17 if they have some inkling that Giolito would still sign for around $2M and the medical news is promising. St. Louis also has 2 picks in the first round (#19 & 23).

Anybody have an opinion on the actual injury? I have a sneaking suspicion that it might have been better for him in the long term just to have popped the ligament completely and had TJ surgery. Isn’t the long term prognosis for a TJ survivor better than for somebody that just sprains their UCL? I believe that a sprained ligament will never be stronger than before the sprain, while grafting on the tendon into an elbow actually can make it stronger than it was before the sprain. Any experts out there to correct my ignorance?

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by Fla-Giant on Mar 7, 2026 7:52 PM EST reply actions

I'm no expert

But I doubt one sprain will make a huge difference with his abilities. After something like 5 sprains, maybe. But I think one sprain is fine.

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Mar 7, 2026 8:47 PM EST up reply actions

This I know is wrong. I sprained my knee in a skiing fall back when I was 19. The doctor told me at the time that my ligament would never be as strong as before the injury, but I could do exercises to strengthen the muscles around the knee to try and compensate for it.

My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.

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by Fla-Giant on Mar 7, 2026 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

Ah, okay

Well I guess we won’t know until he starts throwing again.

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Mar 7, 2026 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, i'm with Fla- Giant

If the draft was next Month Gioloto wouldn’t be a 1st rounder maybe a Jon Stilson like 2nd rounder…

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 7, 2026 10:21 PM EST up reply actions

I'd actually be ecstatic if Giolito is around by the time the Brewers pick

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Mar 7, 2026 10:23 PM EST up reply actions

A sprain is just another way of saying he has a partially torn UCL

It won’t affect his abilities in the short term, but it makes a TJS in the near future seem a whole lot more likely.

by nixa37 on Mar 8, 2026 9:00 AM EST up reply actions

i know very little, but id agree with this

if i was a team picking in the first 15-20 picks of the draft it would scare me off, even if he comes out and starts dominately a game or two before the draft.

I’d take him picking at about 25-30 but now higher as of now.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 8, 2026 10:30 PM EST up reply actions

Ervin Santana

comes to mind of someone diagnosed with the same thing yet still hasn’t had TJ and has been able to come close to pre-injury levels

by BigG'S on Mar 9, 2026 10:53 AM EST via Android app up reply actions

If Giolito falls to the mid-round range

I think the Jays will take a chance on him. They DO love high-ceiling prep arms.

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Mar 7, 2026 10:09 PM EST up reply actions

I think there is a chance he may drop out of the top 5

but I still think he’s gonna be picked very early in the draft. It’s not as if he tore his elbow or shoulder. It’s a sprain and he’ll recover. I doubt a sprain will have much detrimental effect on his stuff.

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Mar 7, 2026 8:28 PM EST reply actions

Depending on whether or not he throws again befor ethe draft will determine how much he falls

If he doesn’t throw again, than he could very well fall to the mid-late 1st round, and then some perennial playoff team in the AL East will draft him, and turn him into a superstar
The life of an O’s fan :(

by oriolekid on Mar 7, 2026 9:47 PM EST up reply actions

At least the O's have Bundy and Machado

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Mar 7, 2026 10:17 PM EST up reply actions

A mild tear is still called a sprain

Sprain just refers to an injury to the ligament. It was stretched so far that its either loose now and/or its partially torn. This isn’t quite as minor as you’re making it out to be.

by nixa37 on Mar 8, 2026 9:03 AM EST up reply actions

no idea who this guy is...

Did he get Snooki pregnant?

by John Black on Mar 7, 2026 9:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs

High School pitcher

Projected to be a top 3 pick, and reportedly has a 100 mph fastball to go along with a plus curveball a solid change-up and solid command. Also 6’6’’.

If you ranked the prep pitchers of the last 5 years it would go something like
1.Giolito

2.Bundy
3.Taillon

Depending on your preference you can swap Bundy and Taillon, but the point is that before this injury Giolito would have been taken before those two.

by oriolekid on Mar 7, 2026 10:00 PM EST up reply actions

We may as well...

just go in reverse chronological order every year. Newer is better right?

by huztler on Mar 7, 2026 10:20 PM EST up reply actions

You are more right than many people realize.

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by 306008 on Mar 8, 2026 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

nah i'd go

Bundy
Taillon
Miller
Gioloto
Bradley

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 7, 2026 10:22 PM EST up reply actions

Bundy is definitely on top

Wasn’t a huge fan of Miller when he was drafted (should have been but I had some reservations). I’d slot them like this:

Bundy
Giolito
Taillon
Bradley
Turner
Miller

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by Jeff Reese on Mar 7, 2026 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I'll put Giolito ahead of

Bundy like Orolekid.

Giolito
Bundy
Taillon
Bradley

I think you take a small step down after that.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 5:42 AM EST up reply actions

Giolito has better size

But I think that’s the only real advantage he has to Bundy. I do agree that there’s a small step down from those two to Taillon.

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by Jeff Reese on Mar 8, 2026 8:51 AM EST up reply actions

Eh, I'd go like this:

Bundy
Tailon
Bradley
Gioloto/Miller

I can’t really recall why I wasn’t big on Miller.

by mr. maniac on Mar 9, 2026 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

Come on

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by DominicanDandy on Mar 7, 2026 10:05 PM EST up reply actions

Ha

This was pretty funny

by Matt0330 on Mar 9, 2026 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

A thought-

Might Giolito’s rotation mate, Max Fried, make a run at 1.1 now? I love his potential and as an Astros fan I’d consider him one of my 3 top choices for the top pick with Gio out of the picture, I’m currently pulling for Zunino, but would be very pleased with either Gausman or Fried as well. Is he a realistic possibility?

by kyuss94 on Mar 7, 2026 10:23 PM EST reply actions

It's a stretch

He’d have to compete against Zuzino, Buxton, Appel, and Zimmer.

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Mar 7, 2026 10:24 PM EST up reply actions

and his stuff is a notch below Gio's

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Mar 7, 2026 10:24 PM EST up reply actions

He'll get drafted very high but I don't see 1.1

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by Jeff Reese on Mar 7, 2026 10:32 PM EST up reply actions

Prep LHPs haven't done so well in the draft recently

You have to go all the way back to 2006 when Clayton Kershaw went to the Dodgers at #7 for the last time a Prep LHP was a single digit pick.

Fried is a premium prospect, but history is not on his side for his chances at being picked at 1.1. Teams tend to shy away from those kinds of guys at the top of the first round.

by Outshined_One on Mar 8, 2026 1:07 AM EST up reply actions

Throw away all the old mocks.

New board is needed.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Mar 8, 2026 2:39 AM EST reply actions

Working on it

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 5:39 AM EST up reply actions

+1

can’t wait to see

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 8, 2026 10:31 PM EST up reply actions

Welp looks like

if the Astros select a prep guy it’ll be Buxton.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 5:42 AM EST reply actions

which won't be bad at all

If you’re willing to be patient

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Mar 8, 2026 7:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Christian Welp?

by Matt0330 on Mar 8, 2026 8:55 AM EST up reply actions

I think I hafta cry

“Depends upon what the definition of is is.”

From a California HS Baseball perspective, then yeah. It sounds like a 6-10 week injury, and the coach won’t hurry him back to get him hurt. However, I’m a fan of a big league club. In my case, the Cubs.

If Theo watches him pitch pre-draft, he isn’t out for the year, from a MLB/MiLB standard. If it was a grade three, and he was going under the knife, then he’s out for the year. If he goes to UCLA and they shut him down until the fall, then he’s out for the season. However, if he gets drafted and goes to your team’s camp, he’ll throw some by September, unless he has a setback.

In the recent Jorge Soler articles, it claims the Cubs ‘could’ soon sign Soler. That’s meaningless, but accurate. To say Giolito is ‘done for the season’ is striking, but may well be inaccurate. Unless something else happens, he will pitch for some of the top ten drafting teams. I doubt Soler signs soon, and Gio will pitch before October hits.

10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.

by timh815 on Mar 8, 2026 8:29 AM EST reply actions

Could he just got to a JuCo somewhere?

That way he takes until the spring to throw, and is lights out by draft time next year.

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by 306008 on Mar 8, 2026 11:05 AM EST reply actions

That would be his best option froma purely money and leverage point of view. However, most kids want to go to a big-time school and face the best competition if they don’t turn pro right out of high school. If Giolito doesn’t get drafted in the first 20 or so picks then I think that he’ll end up honoring his UCLA commit.

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by Fla-Giant on Mar 8, 2026 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

It's his best option...

As long as he doesn’t end up needing TJS at some point over the next 14 months or so. If he’s considering the juco route I’d go ahead and advise him to go pro as long as he still goes in the first round.

by nixa37 on Mar 8, 2026 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

Folks, don't forget...

his sliding, coupled with the new draft “slotting”, could make this VERY interesting. What if this kid pulls a Bell…? Doing what the Pirates did would cost your team $$$…and future picks.

I think it is damn interesting — Giolito could be good enough that a team DOES forfeit cash and a future pick(s) to grab him and pay him well above slot.

Thoughts?

by insane_sanity on Mar 9, 2026 4:38 PM EST reply actions

I do think it's possible

And if you start down that road, it would only make sense to continue to sign guys well above slot, right? I mean, if Giolito is going to get you the maximum penalty, might as well go all out…. and if it does happen, I would love for it to be a small market team just to show what a farce the “competitive balance” rationality is.

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by Jeff Reese on Mar 9, 2026 4:56 PM EST up reply actions