Prospect Analysis: Elite Prospects from 2007

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2026 1:00 PM EST

Prospect Analysis: Elite Prospects from 2007

To finish the "learning from old prospect lists" series, I decided to take a look at the elite prospects from 2007. Although we have less data on these guys than with the previous 2003-2006 lists, we can at least distinguish the complete busts from the guys who are having/will have successful careers. Remember, for these reports I am only looking at prospects graded with an A or A-. Anyone B+ or lower wasn't included, although B+ is very strong grade.

The list is organized alphabetically. Some of these guys we have already talked about.

HITTERS (Alphabetical):

Jay Bruce: 514 games, 2076 PA, peak WAR 5.4, total WAR 11.3. Excellent
Ryan Braun: 729 games, 3177 PA, peak WAR 7.8, total WAR 25.2. Excellent
Reid Brignac: 240 games, 694 PA, peak WAR 1.5, total WAR 0.4. When he got the grade, he was seen as a strong hitter who needed to work on his defense. His glove improved, but his bat slipped. Lesson: breakthroughs in the California League can't be trusted.

Billy Butler: 629 games, 2861 PA, peak WAR 2.9, total WAR 6.8. Doesn't look that hot on WAR, but it is hard to call a .297/.360/.458 hitter, +120 OPS hitter a failure in my mind.
Alex Gordon: 559 games, 2332 PA, peak WAR 5.3, total WAR 11.8. Figured things out.
Andy LaRoche: 403 games, 1332 PA, peak WAR 2.6, total WAR 1.1. Supposed to become a guy who could hit for average, get on base, show some power, and play strong defense. Didn't happen, obviously. Injuries were an issue.

Adam Lind: 621 games, 2534 PA, peak WAR 3.7, total WAR 4.3: Aside from a monster year in 2009, he hasn't lived up to expectations though he does have considerable power (106 career homers).
Evan Longoria: 563 games, 2414 PA, peak WAR 7.6, total WAR 26.9: Excellent.
Andrew McCutchen: 420 games, 1824 PA, peak WAR 5.7, total WAR 12.9. Excellent.

Hunter Pence: 734 games, 3099 PA, peak WAR 4.7, total WAR 19.3: Very steady, consistent producer.
Troy Tulowitzki: 697 games, 2974 PA, peak WAR 6.5, total WAR 24.5: Excellent.
Justin Upton: 581 games, 2402 PA, Peak WAR 6.4, Total WAR 14.6. Excellent so far.

Brandon Wood: 272 games, 751 PA, Peak WAR 0.1, Total WAR -2.6. Undone by inability to make contact.
Chris Young: 784 games, 3225 PA, Peak WAR 4.6, Total WAR 13.5: Solid regular.
Delmon Young: 729 games, 2967 PA, Peak WAR 1.8, Total WAR 1.6: He's just no fun to write about.

Big busts are Brignac and Wood, who was already present on the '03-06 list. LaRoche busted but injuries were a factor there. Lind hasn't been great but he's held a job and has power.

Adding this group into the 2003-2006 players seems to improve the success rate. I don't think we learned anything new here, other than a reminder to be suspicious about breakthroughs in the California League.

Pitchers coming up tomorrow.

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Read More: Billy Butler (DH - KAN), Alex Gordon (LF - KAN), Hunter Pence (RF - PHI), Troy Tulowitzki (SS - COL), Delmon Young (LF - DET), Brandon Wood (3B - COL), Andy LaRoche (3B - CLE), Adam Lind (1B - TOR), Justin Upton (RF - ARI), Jay Bruce (RF - CIN), Reid Brignac (SS - TAM), Evan Longoria (3B - TAM), Andrew McCutchen (CF - PIT)

Comments

…be suspicious about breakthroughs in the California League.

Especially breakthroughs that involve previously unseen power production.

I wonder if the opposite turns out to be a truism? Does a pitcher that has a breakthrough in the Cal League acquire extra consideration for excelling in such a hitter’s paradise?

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Feb 9, 2026 1:57 PM EST reply actions

very good question. will have to look into that one

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2026 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

So in being suspicious ...

should we be sceptical of Nolan Arenado? I haven’t seen any concerns about him coming out of the CAL League …

by BNBurger on Feb 10, 2026 8:46 AM EST up reply actions

perhaps there should be an addendum to the rule....

breakthroughs in the Cal. South should be viewed with extreme skepticism.

The Cal. North isn’t so bad and Modesto could even be considered a pitcher’s park.

I know from following the Rockies that their hitters show a pattern of getting worse statistically when they go to A+-ball in Modesto, compared with their performance in other leagues. I wouldn’t worry about Arenado, but those that do especially well in Asheville (ahem…Kyle Parker), should be viewed with extreme skepticism.

by DenverBears on Feb 13, 2026 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

lol delmon young

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by papality on Feb 9, 2026 3:09 PM EST reply actions

Delmon Young

He went from a 30+ efficient SB threat to a fat, liability and the worst fielding OF in the league. His failure is all on him, and Bill Smith.

by Visnovsky on Feb 9, 2026 4:56 PM EST reply actions

Can't understand it

Saw him right after was drafted in the AzFL 03 and he played a very servicable CF back then, now he is terrible in LF. Has to be mental because he hasn’t had any injuries so there is no reason he was better defensively at 18 than at 26

by ScottAZ on Feb 9, 2026 6:59 PM EST up reply actions

body

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 9, 2026 8:21 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

body

by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 9, 2026 8:21 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

The Reason

Too many Twinkies.

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by rwperu34 on Feb 9, 2026 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

Andy LaRoche: peak WAR 2.6, total WAR 1.1

Says it all about his career. Sigh.

How big do you think the injuries were? I don’t remember him going on the DL all the time; he just seemed to turn into a pop-up machine in 2009. —Though looking at the batted-ball data, he still popped up a huge amount in his one good year, and his other batted-ball ratios didn’t change all that much between 2008 and 2009. But his BABIP dropped 50 points and his extra-base hits disappeared. Was he just lucky in 2008?

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 9, 2026 5:18 PM EST reply actions

Given how well he hit in the minors (and not just in the PCL), I have to think the injuries were a big factor

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2026 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think Reid Brignac is a complete wash yet

his defense is more than good enough to carry him on the right team. He would be great in a situation like SF or SD where he can be an elite defensive SS and the need for offense isn’t as high as in a place like TB, where the margin of error is so small in the ALE. He will never be a superstar in this league but I could see him having a 10 year career.

Follow @Dbullsfan

by Dbullsfan on Feb 9, 2026 5:56 PM EST reply actions

Not if he hits like he did in 2011.

by mr. maniac on Feb 9, 2026 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

the other side of the coin from mr. maniac, unfortunately, is that he's not

“an elite defensive SS”, either. Maybe he can improve substantially, but that’s not usually how it works (26-year-olds are probably pretty close to their defensive peak).

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 9, 2026 7:20 PM EST up reply actions

No, he is very good defensively. UZR/150 isn't a huge fan of his, but he seriously is a good defender.

I’m going to guess the lack of a consistent sample size has something to do with why Briggy’s UZR isn’t good.

by mr. maniac on Feb 10, 2026 12:29 AM EST up reply actions

LaRoche

How were injuries a factor? I watched a lot of this guy in Pittsburgh and he just flat out sucks at hitting and defense.

by sportsfreak2744 on Feb 9, 2026 8:39 PM EST reply actions

LaRoche

the player we saw in pittsburgh was not the player who we saw in the minors. Everything deteriorated very quickly

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2026 8:51 PM EST up reply actions

it seemed to happen after a combination of 2006 shoulder problems and 2007 back problems. that was my perception anyway

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2026 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

Makes one wonder about Rendon

Shoulder problems are no joke. Go ask LaRoche.

by guru4u on Feb 10, 2026 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

Good comparison

Injury or no (in my opinion). I wonder if he even has Andy LaRoche’s former power though.

by Matt0330 on Feb 13, 2026 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

Alex Gordon

Alex Gordon is a cautionary tale, in some respects. While teams often are overly patient with top prospects sometimes they give up on them too soon. Not so with the Royals and Gordon, who looked overvalued at one time. But he’s kept working, stayed healthy and he produced at a high level last year. If I’m Royals’ management I just want to learn if Gordon can consistently produce at that level now. If so, I’m very happy. If he still has some “elevation” in his game, then all the better.

by Mjay424 on Feb 10, 2026 12:10 AM EST reply actions

Brandon Wood

Never a fan. If you can’t hit, you’re probably not a good hitter.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 10, 2026 12:37 AM EST reply actions

Well, that's the thing with Wood

I’ve seen him hit. A lot. I’ve seen him control the strike zone, I’ve seen him shorten his swing and go the opposite way.

But only in the minors. He was never able to carry this forward, but he wasn’t always just as sit-and-rip guy…at times he showed hitting skills to go with the power.

by John Sickels on Feb 10, 2026 8:29 AM EST up reply actions

Why

do you think it’s worked out this way? He’s a guy who was able to process and adjust accordingly to minor leaguers but didn’t have the aptitude/“human computing ability” to do the same in the majors?

by RedHopeful on Feb 11, 2026 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think he could hit a breaking ball

and his development by Anaheim left a lot to be desired. A few at bats here or there is a terrible approach to developing talent.

by pedrophile on Feb 13, 2026 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

Butler/J.Montero

Whos has the better year this year?

by ttnorm on Feb 10, 2026 6:50 AM EST reply actions

Whos?!?

I was one of the original Bowery Boys.

by ttnorm on Feb 10, 2026 6:51 AM EST up reply actions

Ok...But

Its fun to do, but must of us know about the A & A- guys who star & bust.

I would like to see the history of “sleepers” from these years. That would be more fun.

by clutterheart on Feb 10, 2026 9:23 AM EST reply actions

I'm working on stuff like that.

It takes time…I don’t have this stuff in a database, I have to go through the old books by hand.

by John Sickels on Feb 10, 2026 9:33 AM EST up reply actions

you need an intern!

by clutterheart on Feb 10, 2026 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

yeah i know

Yeah I do. I have a couple of friends who are constantly telling me that, and it is true that the level of annoyance work (data entry, etc) has gotten beyond my ability to handle sometimes and makes it hard to concentrate on writing.

by John Sickels on Feb 10, 2026 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

i would apply

But I have to pay a mortgage

by clutterheart on Feb 10, 2026 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

yeah

Yeah that is part of the reason why I have never taken on an assistant or intern.
I don’t make enough money to pay anyone, and just taking advantage of some college kid with a non-paying “internship” always struck me as ethically wrong.

I think corporations that have lots of unpaid “interns” are just abusing people and extracting free labor.

That said, this may be another thing that I have to give up my principles on. I simply have too many responsibilities.

by John Sickels on Feb 10, 2026 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

it's only "unpaid"

in the traditional sense that an “unpaid” intern isn’t getting money. but it’s not like money has any inherent value. the value of money is that you can use it to trade for other goods/services which provide value.

similarly, when people “hire” an “unpaid” intern, they are paying value in a different way. for one thing, if you think the intern gains valuable learning experience, then what you’re doing is charging them a tuition fee, and paying them back. the market will determine how much your teaching experience costs them, and also how much their work costs for you.

second, the intern gains value by being able to put their work experience for you on a resume. if they want to work in baseball in the future, the types of skills they develop while working with you, and the general experience, would count for something.

i really don’t think you should think of it as extracting “free” labor from “unpaid” interns. if a college student wants to work for you for “free” in the sense that you aren’t giving them any money, they are still doing it willingly, which means that they are getting some value from working with you.

by blue bulldog on Feb 10, 2026 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

That is the argument my friends make.

Of course, part of the reason they make this argument is that they think having an intern will give me more free time to spend with my friends :)

I have some other things to take care of first, but I’m seriously considering this.

by John Sickels on Feb 10, 2026 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

Interns who aren't guaranteed pay

have to really WANT the job.

I took 2 different unpaid internships during college and busted my ass for each employer and ended up getting compensated monetarily by both companies. Complete gravy and felt awesome getting a check for my hard work.

by sloffy on Feb 10, 2026 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

they also have to be able to work for free

Makes it more likely that the kid who’s going to get a break into the profession is the one whose family is well-off enough to support him or her. (Not trying to infer about your situation, and I didn’t exactly grow up on the streets.)

I admire John’s stance, though it’s easy for me to do it when I’m not the one doing his data entry.

Hey John, have your friends considered doing your data entry? That would take care of your ethical qualms and they’d be spending time with you too!

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 11, 2026 9:07 PM EST up reply actions

why wouldn't he just scan it in? sounds crazy to use data entry when scanning exists

by pedrophile on Feb 13, 2026 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

scanning

I don’t know anything about how that works

by John Sickels on Feb 13, 2026 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

I think you would have two options

Did a couple searches and Frank Voila!

http://www.blueleaf-book-scanning.com/
http://boundbookscanning.com/

https://www.google.com/search?q=cost+to+scan+a+book&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

Another alternative would be if someone here had a scanner - you could send them a copy of each year and they could scan for you. They get a copy of every year for free and you get your work scanned.

by pedrophile on Feb 13, 2026 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

stirring the pot a little more

Here’s an article about a lawsuit which discusses some of the problems with internships.

Pedro’s idea sounds good, actually — have one of your fans scan back issues for you.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 14, 2026 9:22 AM EST up reply actions

I'm sure there's plenty of kids who would love to work with you for free.

It’s such a hard field to break into. And besides if they’re adults and they know ahead of time that they’re not getting paid it’s not exactly exploiting them. The resume padding greater than 10 bucks an hour they could be getting at a burger joint.

by FrancoTAU on Feb 12, 2026 12:25 AM EST up reply actions