Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 6, 2025 10:00 AM EDT
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PrintPittsburgh Pirates 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the Pittsburgh Pirates. This list was originally published January 3rd, 2011. We will look at the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, the Kansas City Royals on Monday, the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday, the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday, and the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Grade B+: 4.39 ERA with 71/11 K/BB in 68 innings for Low-A West Virginia, 72 hits allowed, 1.25 GO/AO. Impressive K/IP and K/BB ratios stand out.
2) Stetson Allie, RHP, Grade B: Serious command issues for State College: 7.97 ERA, 23/20 K/BB in 20 innings, 20 hits. He's had some good outings but some terrible ones, too.
3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: Hitting .237/.341/.311 with 37 walks, 53 strikeouts in 312 at-bats for Double-A Altoona. Has thrown out 23% of runners, made 14 errors. I'm disappointed, particularly the lack of power development.
4) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade B: 4.76 ERA with 69/32 K/BB in 110 innings for Triple-A Indianapolis, 121 hits. Still throwing strikes, but sharp worsening in K/IP and H/IP ratios gives ammunition to the skeptics who questioned ins success at lower levels.
5) Luis Heredia, RHP, Grade B-: 6.38 ERA with 17/15 K/BB in 18 innings for GCL Pirates, 17 hits. Serious command problems so far, but doesn't turn 17 until next week.
6) Jeff Locke, LHP, Grade B-: 4.22 ERA with 108/44 K/BB in 119 innings, 114 hits for Double-A Altoona. Nothing spectacular, but not terrible either.
7) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade B-: 4.29 ERA with 38/14 K/BB in 36 innings between Altoona and High-A Bradenton. At age 25, he needs to advance a lot more rapidly than this.
8) Zach "The Junker" Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: 6.58 ERA with 82/15 K/BB in 94 innings for West Virginia, 115 hits. He's still throwing strikes, but his fastball velocity is not picking up as scouts hoped, and he's getting killed by his home run/fly ball tendencies.
9) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade B-: 4.14 ERA with 85/58 K/BB in 113 innings for Indianapolis, 113 hits. I felt he was capable of better.
10) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .312/.347/.457 with 14 walks, 81 strikeouts in 407 at-bats for Altoona, 18 steals. Still raw in many respects, impatient, but has kept his batting average up.
11) Bryan Morris, RHP, Grade C+: 3.92 ERA with 48/26 K/BB in 60 innings for Altoona, 60 hits, 1.95 GO/AO. Struggled as a starter but excellent since switching to bullpen, 2.36 ERA, 31/10 K/BB in 34 innings. I think that is his best role.
12) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: 3.13 ERA with 78/30 K/BB in 101 innings for West Virginia, 81 hits. A solid campaign, moving up the prospect list.
13) Brock Holt, INF, Grade C+ .277/.342/.371 with 39 walks, 72 strikeouts, 15 steals in 415 at-bats for Altoona. Now a full-time second baseman and has performed well with the glove.
14) Nick Kingham, RHP, Grade C+: 3.15 ERA with 31/10 K/BB in 40 innings for State College in the New York-Penn League, 43 hits. Throwing strikes, other numbers OK, just 19.
15) Tony Watson, LHP, Grade C+: 2.45 ERA with 29/11 K/BB in 29 innings for Indianapolis, 19 hits. Very similar in the majors, 2.55 ERA, 22/12 K/BB in 25 innings, 19 hits, Nothing to complain about there, and could take a larger role.
16) Evan Chambers, OF, Grade C: .241/.365/.401 with 11 homers, 59 walks, 102 strikeouts, 17 stolen bases in 344 at-bats for Bradenton. Still has the high walk rate with some speed and power, but not a breakthrough season like I'd hoped.
17) Zach Dodson, LHP, Grade C: Season split three-ways between GCL Pirates, West Virginia, and State College. Combined numbers: 3.69 ERA, 50/17 K/BB in 61 innings, 65 hits. There is some promise here.
18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: Hitting .287/.339/.396, one homers, 17 steals, 21 walks, 74 strikeouts in 338 at-bats for Indianapolis. He'll never hit enough to be a regular, but speed and defense might be useful on a bench.
19) Mel Rojas, Jr., OF, Grade C: .253/.303/.334, 28 walks, 89 strikeouts, 18 steals in 392 at-bats for West Virginia. Everyone knew he was raw when drafted and, guess what, he is.
20) Chase d'Arnaud, SS, Grade C: .280/.347/.418 with 20 walks, 42 strikeouts, 17 steals in 239 at-bats for Indianapolis. .225/.245/.294 in 102 major league at-bats, seven steals. He will be around awhile but I am still doubtful that he'll hit enough to be a long-term regular.
I think this list is rather substandard. Von Rosenberg, a favorite of mine since he was in high school, has been a massive disappointment, and other breakthrough candidates have not really lived up to their potential. Taillon looks solid thus far, and Colton Cain needs to be watched closely in '12.
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Allie
Am I the only one not surprised at all that he’s struggled? Never been that high on him. Raw velocity isn’t everything.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 6, 2025 11:07 AM EDT reply actions
Nope
but I’m not concerned about him at all.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 6, 2025 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone knew he was a long-term project
But with is velocity, he had one of the higher upsides in the minors. Not great so far, but give him a few more years before deciding to write him off. He had only pitched for one full year in High School when he was drafted, so he definitely had some stuff to work on.
by cookiedabookie on Aug 6, 2025 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I see him as a back-end reliever and that's fine for what it is
But this young and raw of a guy, who is a long-term project like you said, and likely has a closer ceiling… is not a top 100 prospect in my book.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 6, 2025 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Mel Rojas
Jr looks very good in person, and his June and July numbers, specifically his July BB:K ratio, show significant improvement in a decent sample size.
Signs of life at least.
Obviously this isn’t a new list, but Kyle McPherson, Robbie Grossman, Matt Curry, and to an extent Jarek Cunningham (hasn’t played in a few weeks for a reason I can’t seem to find) all have had very good years. However, they weren’t on the original list.
Overall, I’d consider the Pirates system to have had mild success this year so far.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 6, 2025 2:41 PM EDT reply actions
thought their pitching might take a step forward this season
that has not happened
by pack_fan on Aug 6, 2025 5:33 PM EDT reply actions
horrible
just when I got through complaining about being a Padres fan, I saw this list and realized it could be worse…i could be a Pirates fan.
by Jeremy1Esq on Aug 6, 2025 7:59 PM EDT reply actions
Haha
you are joking right? With the additions of signees, this will be a top 12 system next year.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 6, 2025 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
No way is this a top 12 system, even with the addition of draft signings. It looks more like a bottom 5 system.
by Brad E on Aug 7, 2025 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Its not a bottom 5 system at all
Because if they have Cole and Taillon alone, that would take them out of that bottom 5 area.
by NastyNate82 on Aug 7, 2025 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Plus
if they sign Bell (unlikely, but still) they’d have a top 5 of Cole, Taillon, Heredia, Bell, and Marte with others like Allie, Dickerson, and Sanchez. I agree this year hasn’t been the best for their system, but I think they added some very good potential pieces in the past year. I don’t think its a top 12 system, but it ain’t a bottom 5 either.
by NastyNate82 on Aug 7, 2025 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
A bottom
5 system. It was a consensus late teens system last year. Since then they have graduated Chase D’Arnuad, Josh Harrison, and Alex Presley. Above Chase D’Arnuad is 20.
They will have added Cole, possibly Bell, and Alex Dickerson, all of which would fit into the top 20, and a few other high upside guys.
Plus, they’ve had breakout years from guys I mentioned above, Curry, McPherson, Grossman, and Cunningham, along with Marte having an excellent season, to counteract the failures of others.
There’s no way they are a bottom 5 system, although top 12 may have been a tad optimistic (probably because Bell won’t sign). The 12-15 range is almost definitely a lock though.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 7, 2025 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
It might not be a bottom 5 system. That may have been a little harsh. I was just overreacting to the thought that this is a top 12 system. It was a consensus late teens system last summer, and I don’t think it has improved this year. All of the disappointing seasons these guys are having is not wiped clean by a good draft.
Graduating Chase D’Arnuad and Alex Presley has no effect on this systems grade.
by Brad E on Aug 7, 2025 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
You proven cutch' point
Nothing of value graduated, and they added several highly thought of prospects to the others already in the system. If they get a few bounce back years next season, the system might really take off.
by Woo! on Aug 7, 2025 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, D’Arnuad and Presley didn’t have anything to do with my point.
The players, like Sanchez, Owens, and Van Rosenburg, who are having bad years are not going to have bounce backs during the winter. The Pirates were rated around 18th prior to this season and haven’t added THAT much more during the draft than all of the teams who were already ranked ahead of them to make up for all of the bad seasons listed above AND jump in the ranks 6 spots. Right?
I know that some teams that were ranked ahead of them, like the Red Sox, have probably fallen beneath the Pirates. But, it is also likely that some teams that were ranked behind them have probably jumped ahead.
by Brad E on Aug 7, 2025 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Red Sox
I dunno, with all of their draft picks (guys like Barnes, Bradley, Swihart, and Owens) wouldn’t the Sox move up? I get what you’re saying about the Bucs though; guys who were highly thought of, like Sanchez and ZVR have had pretty poor years any way you look at it. People will point to positives like Sanchez’ OBP, but his power is non-existent right now and his defense has taken a step back.
On the other hand, if those guys bounce back in a big way next year (which isn’t inconceivable) they could jump up quite a bit too.
by NastyNate82 on Aug 7, 2025 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh
I don’t want to go way too deep, but this year there were by my count..
A 0
A- 0
B+ 1
B 3
B- 5
C+ 6
C 5
I’m obviously not John and I can’t predict the future, but I’d expect two in the A or A- range (Taillon and Cole). I also expect there to be more than 7 B+ through B-. If there are say, 9, then you’ve got 2 in the A range and 11 in the B through A range. That’s not an unreasonable prediction, and it means the system is both more top heavy and deeper.
I see that as nothing less than a large improvement.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 7, 2025 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
B range
Marte, Cain, Curry, Morris, Heredia, Sanchez, Bell, Grossman, McPherson
That what you’re thinking Cutch?
by Woo! on Aug 7, 2025 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I would agree with all of those except maybe Morris. Hopefully you guys get Bell. That’s a lot of money to pass up.
I don’t know, I think you guys will have 9 or 10 B’s like last year, so I wouldn’t expect to jump 6 spots.
by Brad E on Aug 7, 2025 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
But
we had 9 B’s last year, with 0 A’s. I think we could have 9 or 10 B’s with 2 A’s.
Either way these arguments are somewhat arbitrary, but this discussion has been great.
Irks me a bit that people think the system has had a down year.
For B’s I’m thinking Bell (if he signs), Marte, Curry, Grossman, McPherson, Cain, Sanchez, Heredia, and Cunningham. I’d have to think Allie will be as well, if based just off of scouting reports and his pure velocity. Also I bet Dickerson gets a B range grade.
John obviously may disagree and players may fall apart down the stretch, so we will have to see.
Either way, I like the direction the farm system has went under NH.
Also, don’t discount guys like D’Arnaud and Presley who may graduate at the end of the year, because if they don’t I bet both fit into the top 20 range, and possibly both as guys in the B range as well.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 7, 2025 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree on the way the system is headed under NH
I think we all just kind of wish they could catch some breaks…he’s making the right moves with guys like Grossman and Quinton Miller and those kinds of draft picks, but it obviously hasn’t been as smooth as we all would like. Is it just me, or has their farm system had quite a rash of injuries in the last couple of years to the top guys too? Sanchez, Marte, Miller…although I suppose every team has that happen.
The other thing…this is just a look at who was on the preseason top 20. Below that, many of those guys, as said, had breakout years. This list is going to look a LOT different next year with the additions, and some guys in the teens probably falling out completely.
by NastyNate82 on Aug 7, 2025 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn't really prove his point
Lots of guys on that list have bombed. So if lots of the same names are on the list after crummy years, the ranking of the system will go down.
by NastyNate82 on Aug 7, 2025 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure it does
I will freely admit to having a very limited amount of knowledge about prospecting, but I’m picking up tidbits every day. I see almost no way that the Pirates don’t move up the rankings for next season’s farm reviews. My belief is that the potential of several players in the system will be enough to have them ranked highly, as many in the business seem to love high ceiling players.
Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are likely to be what, top 15 prospects each? Each with the potential to be legitimate aces from what I’ve seen/heard. Luis Heredia is very highly regarded as well, from what I’ve read, and I believe he nearly made KLaw’s top 50 in his midseason review if I remember correctly. So there’s three extremely highly regarded pitchers in the systerm.
Stetson Allie obviously has a great arm, but many are concerned with his struggles so far this year. Hard to blame people for being cautious with him, but its also been said all along that he’s a real project and extremely raw, so people also shouldn’t be that surprised that he’s struggled.
Starling Marte doesn’t seem to get much love, as many people point to his K vs. BB ratio and say he lacks plate discipline. He does indeed have bad ration, but he also is slugging .471, which is the highest of his brief career despite coming off of a broken hamate bone mid-season last year, which means his power likely isn’t all the way back. He’s also cut down on his Ks from years past, shown excellent defense, arm-strength, and speed, and is on pace to blow past the team record for hits in a season. Add that to the fact that he’s an appropriate age for the level, has the lowest BABIP of his career, and is in his first full season in the States, and I think you have to admit he’s doing quite well, and improving as well.
Throw in a couple of other blowup guys (Cain, McPherson, Curry, Grossman) and a couple other guys added in the draft (Dickerson, prep pitchers, hopefully Bell) and the odds that at least of the dissapointments this season will have bounce backs next year, and this system seems like it has to rise in the rankings.
by Woo! on Aug 7, 2025 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
The point I believe he’s making is that many of the guys on the list, specifically in the top 10 (ZVR, Sanchez, Wilson, Owens, and Locke) have either been mediocre or pretty bad. Now, with guys like Grossman and Cunningham having very good years, that doesn’t cancel that out. They will likely make the Bucs top 20, and their rise certainly helps the depth of the system
To me, the biggest issue is that a lot of the guys who have big-time talent like Allie and Heredia have a long way to go in improvement or IF they will even make it.
Either way…John is only going by the list above, and just looking at just those 20…well, it ain’t pretty for the most part.
by NastyNate82 on Aug 7, 2025 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Hard to believe
That you had Starling Marte ranked so low, John. He was top 5 in most lists and #2 over at PiratesProspects. Had a decent year with the bat and is currently on a power binge of sorts at Double-A. Average is back up to .320 range.
by Woo! on Aug 6, 2025 10:48 PM EDT reply actions
By the way
I didn’t mean that as some sort of shot at you, John. I was just genuinely surprised that you didn’t rank him higher based on the Pirates lack of impact prospects overall.
by Woo! on Aug 6, 2025 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Marte
The BB/K is atrocious.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 7, 2025 7:09 AM EDT up reply actions
This is his first full year of ball in the states
Patience.
by Woo! on Aug 7, 2025 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
but the only hole he has in his game is his BB:K ratio, and the problem is on the BB side. Personally, I’ve found that a high K ratio is much scarier than a low BB ratio. His K rate has significantly dropped this year.
Skeptics will point to his very high BABIP to knock him, and I will point to the fact that his BABIP this year is the lowest of his career. The combination of elite contact skills, his speed, and the lower K rates suggest he can maintain that type of BABIP even into the majors. Combine that with his plus to plus plus range in CF and plus to plus plus arm and emerging power, and he’s a B+ in my book.
People who want to be a bit more conservative could easily just rank him as a B until they see movement from the BB:K ratio, but I think B- would be slightly low considering he has made strides this year.
Either way, he does need to learn to walk more, or pitchers in the majors will take advantage of him, which will limit his ability to get on base.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 7, 2025 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
BABIP
I think is getting a little too much attention attention as a statistic. If a guy makes incredibly good contact (like Marte) and hits lots of line drives, well…he’s going to have a high BABIP. To me, that speaks to the fact that he’s a good hitter and not necessarily a fluke or luck. If he’s been doing it thru the entire minors, as McC points out, then its not all luck.
by NastyNate82 on Aug 7, 2025 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the way you think
I was extremely skeptical of Marte up until this year. He’s made some real improvements and at his age, the development of his hitting ability is much more important than his willingness to take a walk.
I like seeing walks out of young players, but they’re not an acceptable or projectable substitute for actual ability to produce. That’s not to say that Marte doesn’t need to improve his discipline, but I find it tends to be easier for players at higher levels of competition to do so once they actually are capable of doing damage at the plate. A little bit of respect from pitchers can go a long way.
by mrkupe on Aug 7, 2025 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
'I like seeing walks out of young players, but they’re not (a) substitute for..ability to produce.'
‘Wait, what?’ - Aaron Hicks
by Matt0330 on Aug 8, 2025 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 8, 2025 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Is
Marte top 100 for you Kupe. Just curious.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 8, 2025 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Jason Parks
Called Cain an “untouchable” in a recent trade deadline podcast. His opinions are admittedly skewed for Texans, but he’s obviously very high on Cain.
by Woo! on Aug 6, 2025 10:56 PM EDT reply actions
cain
I’ve been on that bandwagon since he was a prep. He’s come a LONG way in just a season and a half of pro games. I think Pirates fans are going to end up very pleasantly surprised at where he ends up ranking-wise this year.
by mrkupe on Aug 7, 2025 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Ranking
Are you referring to his rank in his own system or his rank overall?
by Woo! on Aug 7, 2025 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
system rank
I’m not sure if many will have him top 100 and most publicized lists don’t go past that point.
by mrkupe on Aug 9, 2025 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Hague
Realizing he is not a true “prospect” (will be 26 next month), but do you think he could be the Pirates starting 1b in 2012? Not great power, but solid approach.
formerly NeilLomaxFan
by BrothersGottaAndyHug on Aug 8, 2025 12:02 AM EDT reply actions
It
really depends on what the Pirates can get on the Free Agent market. I wouldn’t be surprised if they offer Derek Lee arbitration if he’s a Type B free agent (which is in doubt unless he starts playing again soon) and getting him back.
If that doesn’t happen, I’d see Hague has an acceptable stop-gap who may turn into a long-term solution. Many other Pirates fan disagree though.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 8, 2025 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
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