The Cliff Lee Trade. One year later
As a Mariner fan, I remember waking up and reading the rumor that Cliff Lee was headed to the Yankees for Jesus Montero. I was excited because, Jesus Montero. I was also upset because the player I so dearly loved was headed to the team I most despised, and probably carrying them to the World Series for the second straight year. And a couple hours later, I checked my phone again and it turns out the Mariners now have Justin Smoak instead. I was happy because I read great things about Justin Smoak and was a better fit for Safeco Field than Montero, but was also bummed that the Mariners weren't getting their 21 year old catcher of the future.
Both being from Venezuela, I also thought Felix and Jesus would make cute buddies. Also, it is easier to root for players with more sex-appeal, and this handsome son-of-a-bitch:
might have been easier to root for than this young fellow:
via a.espncdn.com
It is inevitable these two players are going to be compared constantly during their baseball career. Which is unfortunate because Montero will hit in a sandbox while Smoak will hit at Safeco.
As more details arose, it looks like the final Yankees offer was Jesus Montero, David Adams, and Zach McAllister. David Adams hasn't really turned out to be anything, while McAllister looks like a good #4 or #5 starter. And Jesus Montero is good.
The Rangers package was Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Matt Lawson, and Josh Lueke. Blake Beavan has turned out to be a helpful back-of-rotation starter, while Matt Lawson and Josh Lueke were flipped for useful pieces in Aaron Laffey and John Jaso, respectively. I still believe in Smoak, even though he has only hit .227/.316/.385 at the big league level. I buy into his wrist injury, because he was on a non-BABIP inflated tear for the first few months of 2011 and got back on that path after he came back reportedly healthy. I think a peak of .275/.370/.500 is likely, and still has potential to make few All-Star teams.
So I raise the question to you; If you were the Mariners, taking ballpark and everything into account, would you go back and take the Yankees package instead?
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David Adams
Going to be curious to see how he bounces back next year. Assuming he’s healthy in spring, I think he’ll probably get a shot to go to AAA. He was an intriguing enough guy before injury. Showed enough pre-injury to think he could’ve been knocking on the big league door last year had he stayed healthy (granted, at another spot).
by toonsterwu on Dec 21, 2025 10:05 PM EST reply actions
Montero is shiny now.
He may still be after a year, but having followed Smoak’s trials this year, I still believe in him a lot.
He was on an absolute tear until he hurt his wrist, which of course did not come out for a while. He also, which was not mentioned in the article, had to go through the loss of his dad, who had always been very instrumental to his life.
While the Yankees offer may eventually turn out to have been the better offer, I don’t think we will be dissapointed in Smoak. Give him his time and I think he will still be good and a valuable piece to the Mariners core.
IF the Mariners sign Fielder, I hope they do not trade Smoak. That is all.
by tarheels24 on Dec 21, 2025 10:34 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
I'm pretty happy with Smoak, but I still would rather have Montero.
In 5 years is when we can really judge the deal after Montero has a few seasons under his belt
by MilesC on Dec 21, 2025 11:18 PM EST reply actions
You are pretty happy with Smoak?
Why would you be happy with him to date?
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2025 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Because he has shown his obvious potential by hitting .268/.368/.470 up until May 25th when he reportedly started feeling discomfort in his wrist
He also can do this http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14215321
by MilesC on Dec 21, 2025 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
I still believe in Smoak. Love for the Mariners to sign Fielder and the Pirates to swoop in on Smoak.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Holy cow that's incredible
It’s also incredible that the outfield bleachers in that park were practically empty on a Verlander night.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 25, 2025 3:05 AM EST up reply actions
It was a valid question
The guy hasn’t hit in the majors tonight. I wasn’t being rude and people honestly expected a lot more from him. 1Bs who don’t slug .400 tend to have short careers. I like Smoak but it is obvious that he hasn’t come close to expectations.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 24, 2025 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
Ah you are a Mariners fan
Explains why you cannot be rational about a player. Next time I will know why you took a valid criticism of a Mariners player personally.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 24, 2025 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
Now you're being rude.
Not that you’re wrong. Just rude.
As for Smoak, yeah, he’s been disappointing. I think, like MilesC posted above, it’s not a question of talent anymore, but one of health. There is an allowance for his first season to have been sluggish, but knowing how his wrists were messed up which coincided with his precipitous dropoff in production after a very solid start makes sense.
Now, if he ends up being injury prone, that’s another consideration entirely. But for now, I’m still sold on the skills. And it’s not like this means we’re all hating on Montero.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 25, 2025 6:09 AM EST up reply actions
Rangers package, easy.
I like Smoak better than Montero, despite his struggles this season (which were likely due to nagging injuries). Smoak can a) actually play a position on the field and is b) a switch-hitter, which makes him a much better fit for Safeco than the righty Montero.
As for the other players, Lawson is basically Adams (little to no big league impact), as are Beavan and McAllister (back-end starters). But the Rangers also included Lueke, who is a useful player. So I’d take the Rangers’ package over the Yankees’ offer by a lot. I don’t understand how people would think otherwise unless they are either huge Yankee homers who think all great players belong in NY, or they don’t realize how overrated Yankee prospects tend to be.
RIP Greg Halman
by WhyGodWhy on Dec 22, 2025 12:17 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Although I mostly agree with you, I think there is a reasonable argument for someone who is not a Yankee homer.
Most people probably looked at his statistics after reading this and see his overall not impressive numbers. Montero, on the other hand, is one of the best prospects in the game and many project him to be a Frank Thomas/Edgar Martinez clone, which is better than what Justin Smoak’s line in the big leagues suggests what he will become.
by MilesC on Dec 22, 2025 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
I think a player needs more than 69 MLB plate appearances before you start comparing him to the two best designated hitters of all time.
RIP Greg Halman
by WhyGodWhy on Dec 22, 2025 2:06 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Huh huh 69
I do too. But that’s a pretty common comp for Montero, just like Teixeira was a common comp for Smoak
by MilesC on Dec 22, 2025 2:11 AM EST up reply actions
And if Justin Smoak was still a "prospect" too, then he might still be compared to Teixeira.
It’s still too early to say that Smoak will be an average hitter or that Montero will be a great one. I can imagine Montero playing a full season in Safeco last year and everyone writing him off because he hit .250/.320/.400 as a rookie.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 22, 2025 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I can imagine Smoak
putting a .01 WAR in 500 PA’s and people still arguing he’s a top 10 prospect. Only because it’s actually happening.
by The Cole Train on Dec 22, 2025 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
All players that fail to produce in their first 500 PA's, dealing with injury and personal loss, should be cut. I agree.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 22, 2025 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 8 recs
I can't believe you actually just posted that...
follow @klett206
by Rochestie4ever on Dec 23, 2025 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see the comparison
Edgar and Frank posted more walks than strikeouts. They won batting titles and on-base titles. Montero may be a slugger, but he’s not going to control the strikezone like that.
by chaney on Dec 22, 2025 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I know, it's just a common comparison to Montero.
Not saying I agree with it
by MilesC on Dec 22, 2025 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
A player with no idea how to take a walk...
is somehow supposed to be a clone of two of the most disciplined batters in the history of the game? That’s an awful, awful comp. Like Thomas and Martinez, Montero is a right-handed hitter with power who will likely be relegated to DH (though neither Frank or Edgar were DH’s until well into their career - Frank because of mobility issues and Edgar because of durability - neither were tabbed as DH’s at the age of 20).
Montero is shiny, but without a huge leap forward in skills his comps are a lot closer to the Tony Batista/Dave Kingman school of hitters than guys who are on the short list of best batting eyes of all time.
by slamcactus on Dec 29, 2025 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
montero likely wouldnt be relegated to DH at 22 either...
if he wasnt in the organization with one of the top 5 1b in the league who’s owed another 100 million or so
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 30, 2025 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
Not sure that's true.
He’s a guy the Yanks have talked about shopping a lot. They have an incentive to try him out at different spots on the defensive spectrum whether or not there’s a spot for him at 1B in the bigs.
by slamcactus on Dec 30, 2025 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
Also...
that’s a pretty secondary matter in the discussion of whether or not the Frank Thomas/Edgar Martinez comp is batshit crazy (which it is).
by slamcactus on Dec 30, 2025 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
All I said was I have heard the comparison
I NEVER said I agree with it, because I think its an awful one too
by BigBlack on Dec 30, 2025 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
I like Smoak better than Montero
you know what they say about opinions
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 24, 2025 3:45 AM EST up reply actions
Montero = DH
that’s enough for me to go with the Rangers side
by BobZupcic on Dec 24, 2025 9:32 AM EST up reply actions
But we don't know that for sure
The Yankees have zero need at 1B, and therefore they have not moved Montero to 1B. Industry consensus is that he likely can play 1B in the long-term. He is not simply a DH.
by guru4u on Dec 26, 2025 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
"Industry consensus is that he likely can play 1B in the long-term."
What industry?
Montero has little value as “just” a DH, either to the Yankees or as a potential trade chip. If the Yanks thought even for a second Montero had the ability to play first base or even right field, he already would be.
Austin Romine should have been the catcher at AAA last year, Montero’s inability to keep the back up job in the spring impacted his development, too.
It doesn’t take a lot of skill to be a passable first baseman, especially if you have a Frank Thomas bat.
Montero has neither.
by Kelsdad on Dec 26, 2025 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
This is probably why they seem committed to keeping him at catcher.
Come what may. It’s going to have to be painfully obvious to everybody that he can’t do it before they move him off. They know as well as everybody else, that he’s got more value at catcher.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 26, 2025 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree
“If the Yanks thought even for a second Montero had the ability to play first base or even right field, he already would be.”
They could think that he has the ability to play catcher, which is why he played there in the minors last season. That would be far more valuable than playing him at 1b or RF. As for 1b, he has little value to the Yankees in that position because of Mark Teixeira, but he still has major value to the team even if he only can DH. That doesn’t mean that he can’t play 1b, but merely that he can’t play it as well as a multiple gold glove winner in Teixeira.
It’s ironic that you mock “industry consensus” about him having the ability to play 1b when that same consensus is likely what you are relying on to determine that he can’t catch. That industry also believes that Montero’s bat is elite, for what it’s worth.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com
by lemonjello on Dec 26, 2025 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
"It’s ironic that you mock "industry consensus" about him having the ability to play 1b when that same consensus is likely what you are relying on to determine that he can’t catch. "
No, it’s 500 career minor league games at catcher which the industry consensus is relying on that he can’t catch.
As opposed to zero at first.
by Kelsdad on Dec 26, 2025 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
You probably should have said "what consensus?" instead of "what industry"?
Unless you’re asking which industry believed that, in which case, carry on.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 27, 2025 5:12 AM EST up reply actions
Incorrect
Why would the Yanks ever move him to a position he will never play for them? If they thought he could move to RF, they probably would have moved him to RF. But unless something happens to Tex, he is never playing 1B for the pinstripes.
I think this is why they have been so hesitant to move him off C. Why not be as patient as possible hoping he can be Posada-like behind the plate (i.e. passable)?
I have read plenty of reports saying Montero likely has the skills to play a decent 1B. It is quite incorrect to say he is DH only. He’s not David Ortiz.
by guru4u on Dec 26, 2025 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
"Why would the Yanks ever move him to a position he will never play for them?"
Yeah, kinda think that’s what I said.
“I have read plenty of reports saying Montero likely has the skills to play a decent 1B.”
So you wouldn’t mind posting a link?
by Kelsdad on Dec 26, 2025 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
simple
Montero is elite and nobody else is, I would take him. Not to mention his sex appeal ceiling is way higher…
by St.Steve on Dec 22, 2025 9:04 AM EST reply actions
"Not to mention his sex appeal ceiling is way higher"
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Montero is married.
To a girl.
by Kelsdad on Dec 26, 2025 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
So?
When has that ever stopped a heterosexual mancrush?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 27, 2025 5:13 AM EST up reply actions
Montero played for a month as a DH
and outWARed Smoak. People here must really despise Montero.
by The Cole Train on Dec 22, 2025 10:16 AM EST reply actions
Not KBR
KBR has always been a believer in Jesus!!!!!
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 22, 2025 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Which
one?! Oh ho ho, I’m so clever.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Which one?
Montero of course. Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 23, 2025 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
Give
him some time to practice and I bet he could!
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 23, 2025 2:46 AM EST up reply actions
He'd
Turn it into gloves and give them out to the poor.
Please check out the charity that I run, Fort Worth Music Outreach@ www.fortworthmusicoutreach.org
by egriffey on Dec 23, 2025 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
Smoak doesn't have the "It" factor
Montero on the other hand, is a huge viable asset. M’s really needed a catcher of the future. (See Olivo, Miguel)
by Mariner_Drunkard on Dec 22, 2025 12:44 PM EST reply actions
Except Montero isn't a catcher.
And I think that “It” factor you refer to might have a little more to do with it being NY and always being talked about in trades. The name is out there way more.
by tarheels24 on Dec 22, 2025 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
or just the fact that he's likely a much better hitter
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 23, 2025 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
I am 100% certain if the Mariners could turn back the clock, they would have rather taken the Yankees deal
If for no better reason than to have not employed a rapist for a year. The front office had to deal with some serious PR issues until they finally got rid of that headache.
I’ve had Montero ranked ahead of Smoak for the last couple years (knowing full well that Montero is a 1B/DH in the long run), and the other players involved really are pretty similar IMO.
by guru4u on Dec 22, 2025 1:05 PM EST reply actions
"If for no better reason than to have not employed a rapist for a year."
You’re an idiot.
Easily the most ignorant comment I’ve read anywhere.
by Kelsdad on Dec 26, 2025 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
The rapist comments are annoying.
But they’re a litmus test now to see who actually knows what they’re talking about.
Don’t split hairs too evenly, tho, because the M’s organization had to hear about it from fans, media, and their superiors about it. It WAS an embarrassing moment for Jack Z and co and possibly led to one of his people getting fired.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 27, 2025 5:15 AM EST up reply actions
Lueke pled out to false imprisonment with violence and was jailed for it, and DNA testing revealed his sperm on the victim.
How does this make it “Easily the most ignorant comment [you]’ve read anywhere” to call him a rapist?
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 27, 2025 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Because
Lueke wasn’t convicted of rape.
And because the incident happened four years ago, and because the victim wouldn’t press charges and because Lueke wasn’t the only person involved (he was the only one the victim recognized).
Let it go.
by Kelsdad on Dec 27, 2025 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
We are not the Courts. We are not the Jury. We are not the Executioner.
You don’t know what happened that night. Stop acting like he’s guilty of a crime when he wasn’t convicted of it by a jury of his peers or by the state. While he may have raped someone, as far as our legal system is concerned, he didn’t. Whatever you think doesn’t matter.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 27, 2025 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Is it also forbidden to say that OJ is a murderer? Is it forbidden to say Ken Lay is a fraud, since he died before exhausting his appeals and his conviction was vacated (thus meaning that “as far as our legal system is concerned,” he didn’t do anything wrong)?
If so, that’s fine; I think you’re perfectly within your rights to refuse to judge anyone who hasn’t been convicted of that crime in a court of law. But if we’re making our own personal judgments, then we’re entitled to judge our own evidence.
And this:
“Stop acting like he’s guilty of a crime when he wasn’t convicted of it by a jury of his peers or by the state.”
is either wrong or nitpicking; as I said above, he pled no contest to false imprisonment with violence, which is a crime, and for which he served jail time.
For my own position, I’m not pretending to know anything more than I do, which is that Lueke pled no contest to a crime and tests revealed his sperm on the victim (I’m calling her “the victim” because she was at least the victim of the crime he pled no contest to). But there’s absolutely no reason for you to get on your high horse about someone who makes an inference about what happened that night. There’s a big difference between “I don’t think you should say that someone is a rapist if they haven’t been convicted of rape in a court of law” and “Anyone who calls Lueke a rapist doesn’t know what they’re talking about.” And it’s not like the justice system is infallible in either direction.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 27, 2025 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
I really don't want to do this argument.... AGAIN...
Is it also forbidden to say that OJ is a murderer? Is it forbidden to say Ken Lay is a fraud, since he died before exhausting his appeals and his conviction was vacated (thus meaning that "as far as our legal system is concerned," he didn’t do anything wrong)?
I can’t “forbid” you from saying anything. My advice is to not say things that expose ignorance.
But if we’re making our own personal judgments, then we’re entitled to judge our own evidence.
Have at it. But don’t expect other people to accept your personal judgments as anything but stupidity. You can make a personal judgment that the Moon is made of Madonna’s breasts, and I’m going to look at you funny.
is either wrong or nitpicking; as I said above, he pled no contest to false imprisonment with violence, which is a crime, and for which he served jail time.
In this case, when I said “a crime” I meant the accusation of rape. Not that he wasn’t a criminal. He and his lawyer, btw, still profess innocence. And, the charges that he plead guilty to were bogus. If you look up what “false imprisonment” is, there’s no way it fits the description of the events. There was also no indication of violence.
But there’s absolutely no reason for you to get on your high horse about someone who makes an inference about what happened that night.
How about I make an inference that you wet your bed last night? The problem here is that rape is a very serious allegation. It is a heinous crime. You don’t go around wontonly accusing people of crimes unless you’re deliberately trying to influence public opinion about someone. Which is what guru is trying to do. He wants people to think Lueke is a rapist. That’s wrong.
And it’s not like the justice system is infallible in either direction.
Irrelevant.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 27, 2025 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
I really don’t want to do this argument…. AGAIN…
Then perhaps you should not have chimed in?
My advice is to not say things that expose ignorance.
Pure question-begging. You haven’t provided any evidence that shows that the original poster was ignorant.
Have at it. But don’t expect other people to accept your personal judgments as anything but stupidity.
Back atcha. Lueke is a rapist if he performed a sexual act on a woman without her consent. This is a question of fact. People may draw conclusions about this question of fact, as they draw conclusions about other matters of fact; and they may choose to suspend judgment. But to say that the inference that Lueke is a rapist is on a level with an inference that
the Moon is made of Madonna’s breasts
is pure stupidity, since that claim is false, and known to be false. Unless you claim to know what happened that night, it’s not analogous.
Of course if he had said “a convicted rapist” he’d be as wrong as someone who said the moon was made of Madonna’s breasts. He didn’t say that, though.
In this case, when I said "a crime" I meant the accusation of rape. Not that he wasn’t a criminal.
Funny, when I say “a crime” I mean a crime. Using the plain meaning of words, your statement was false unless you’re leaning on the difference between a conviction and pleading “no contest,” which is what I meant by nitpicking.
And, the charges that he plead guilty to were bogus.
This is possible. He may have pled no contest to bogus charges to get out of jail. (It’s also possible that his accuser and the DA decided to accept a plea to lesser charges because the accuser didn’t want to go through the stress of a trial in which the defense strategy would and should be to blacken her reputation, and the DA thought it would be difficult to obtain a conviction in a he-said/she-said case.)
Which just demonstrates that “rapist” and “convicted rapist” are two different concepts. Hold this thought, because it’s going to be important.
The problem here is that rape is a very serious allegation. It is a heinous crime.
See, here you have a point. You could say that the burden of evidence should be very high with assertions like these. But you know what? That doesn’t mean that people who say he’s a rapist are ignorant. It means that they’ve looked at the evidence, and they’ve come to a different conclusion than you have. And the conclusion is not wildly implausible — unless you’re one of the people who thinks that a woman can’t be raped if she’s drunk, or if she’s kissing a bunch of guys in a bar, or that women make up rape accusations all the time, then there’s a fairly high chance that Lueke performed a sexual act on someone against her will. Which he may have done even if he wasn’t convicted of it.
Given the gravity of the accusation, should we refrain from bringing it up unless we have better evidence than we do? Maybe. I don’t go around calling Lueke a rapist myself. But when you say that it’s “a litmus test now to see who actually knows what they’re talking about,” I kind of expect you to have some evidence that the comment is actually wrong, rather than that it doesn’t meet the evidentiary standards you think are appropriate here. And you haven’t presented any such evidence.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 27, 2025 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Oh my god guys.
Evidence points to a rape, but without proof we can’t say for certain. Its not really something worth arguing, as it just goes nowhere
by BigBlack on Dec 28, 2025 1:27 AM EST up reply actions
this is wise
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 28, 2025 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
...
Then perhaps you should not have chimed in?
Fuck, I don’t know. Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment.
Pure question-begging. You haven’t provided any evidence that shows that the original poster was ignorant.
By declaring him a rapist? Ignorance.
Back atcha. Lueke is a rapist if he performed a sexual act on a woman without her consent. This is a question of fact.
Key word there… “if”. How do you determine the “if”? It isn’t done by random people in a message thread. People can think what they want, but it doesn’t make it truth. It also doesn’t make him guilty.
is pure stupidity, since that claim is false, and known to be false. Unless you claim to know what happened that night, it’s not analogous.
What happened that night is now completely irrelevant. Lueke has been found guilty of a crime after the accusation. Double jeopardy is now in effect. Once again, this is a matter of legality. Even if Josh Lueke raped someone, it can’t be proven. Ergo, making a claim as a statement of fact, which is what guru is doing, is foolish.
Funny, when I say "a crime" I mean a crime. Using the plain meaning of words, your statement was false unless you’re leaning on the difference between a conviction and pleading "no contest," which is what I meant by nitpicking.
I gave you the meaning behind my words, then you play with semantics. Fine whatever, moving on.
This is possible. He may have pled no contest to bogus charges to get out of jail. (It’s also possible that his accuser and the DA decided to accept a plea to lesser charges because the accuser didn’t want to go through the stress of a trial in which the defense strategy would and should be to blacken her reputation, and the DA thought it would be difficult to obtain a conviction in a he-said/she-said case.)
It’s also possible the accuser was incapable of being a viable witness because she couldn’t remember anything. It’s also possible she was outright lying for her own personal gain. There are a ton of possibilities that exist, which makes our speculation pointless.
I kind of expect you to have some evidence that the comment is actually wrong, rather than that it doesn’t meet the evidentiary standards you think are appropriate here. And you haven’t presented any such evidence.
It already IS wrong because legally it is wrong. I don’t need anything other than that. If you were to proclaim Lueke being a rapist in a publication, you would get sued for defamation and slander and malice could easily be proven. This is why writers like Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, while writing about the Lueke situation, have never called him a rapist. They’ve only pointed out the actual legal fact that he was accused of rape.
I don’t see how someone willingly defaming a person’s character is anything other than ignorance.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 28, 2025 8:13 AM EST up reply actions
HE IS A RAPIST!!!
The ONLY reason he was not convicted of it was that the victim refused to testify. Without her testimony, the only thing the police could convict him of was falst imprisonment.
Lueke is a complete douche for what he did. Simple research can point to enough evidence to convince a reasonable person that he raped the poor girl. I have a very hard time believing two posters here are actually attempting to counter-argue that point.
A writer for the Seattle Times may not be able to say it legally, but that does not make the statement incorrect.
by guru4u on Dec 28, 2025 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
quod erat demonstrandum
Ignorance.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 29, 2025 4:58 AM EST up reply actions
My question would be...
If Lueke thought he had consensual sex with the female in question, why did he lie about their sexual contact to the police?
by nixa37 on Dec 27, 2025 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
You want me to speculate on someone else's behavior?
Because I totally knew what was going through his brain when he lied to the cops?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 28, 2025 8:15 AM EST up reply actions
Just pointing out what was the fairly damning evidence against him
There is absolutely no reason to lie about something like that unless you feel that something illegal happened that night. If I were a juror hearing this case, it would be very hard for me to get past that. That fact combined with the victims testimony would make me comfortable that he was guilty beyond a reasonable doubt absent some sort of exculpatory evidence for Lueke.
by nixa37 on Dec 28, 2025 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Is it good? No it isn't good.
But “absolutely no reason”? Let me throw out a hypothetical:
Lueke goes drinking with buddies.
Meets girl. Girl is drunk.
Everybody goes back to someone’s place. Gets more drunk.
Lueke and girl have consensual sex (hypothetical 1).
Everybody wakes up the next morning.
Girl feels violated, but doesn’t remember anything from last night (her words).
Doesn’t remember consent (hypothetical 2).
Cops show up and start investigating. Girl is already throwing out allegations (hypothetical 3).
What would you do? You’re Lueke, a young man who realizes that his career could go down the tubes before it even begins because of this girl. Maybe Lueke didn’t even remember doing it with her either. But there’s certain grounds to protect your own interests, especially if you thought everything was consensual then suddenly isn’t. Denial becomes a quick response mechanism for any person under threat of accusation. Cops are intimidating and scary.
You don’t find lying to cops at this instance to be a believable course of action for someone in a panic?
Remember, this is all hypothetical. We don’t know all the details and probably never will.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 29, 2025 5:08 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This is all unseemly & wildly speculative (at best)
Can we un-rec a post? Can’t imagine you could possibly be a parent but whatever the case, just stop..
by Matt0330 on Dec 29, 2025 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
The hell does being a parent have to do with anything?
And I admit it’s speculative! This is WHY I didn’t want to talk about Lueke’s motivations regarding lying to the cops!
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 29, 2025 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Seem to be missing the point
In the apparent rush by some here to come up with excuses for the individual for whom there is strong evidence against, these folks seem to be neglecting the very, very strong likelihood that there’s an actual victim involved here. If anybody deserves the benefit of the doubt & any sort of effort, it isn’t Lueke. In my opinion of course.
Fin
by Matt0330 on Dec 30, 2025 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Ugggghhh please stop
Can you guys please stop? Lueke pled no contest to a serious crime. End of story. I don’t need either sides speculation of what else happened as it is nothing but speculation. Blaming the girl seems terrible and accusing Lueke of crimes he was not convicted of seems terrible. Please drop this as sex assault is a terrible thing and not meant to be taken lightly.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 29, 2025 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
I normally like reading your analysis TIF...
but you really need to stop with the Leuke apologist thing. Zane Smith’s analysis is right on - there is very strong evidence, far more than is generally sufficient for the court of public opinion to rule on someone’s reputation, that Leuke committed an unconsented sexual act. Rape by any other words.
If you don’t want to talk about Leuke, don’t talk about Leuke, and accept that his career will forever be marred by speculation about what he did to the girl, and rightly so. Anyone who has ever known a rape victim knows what a horrible ordeal it is to even contemplate going to the police, much less pressing charges and opening up your entire personal history to public scrutiny. It’s the most under-reported and under-punished crime in our society, and not an allegation that young women are in a habit of throwing out at random. While I am sure false accusations do occur, an accusation of rape does absolutely nothing good for the life of a woman who makes it, and the mere fact of the accusation absent serious evidence of personal vendetta or other desire to harm the accused and/or profit from the allegation raises a serious question about whether or not the act occurred. Bringing it up subsequently, particularly when there’s other evidence and a plea to a lesser offense, is not “ignorant.” Thankfully, the standard for being able to bring something up in public discussion is lower than the standard for convicting someone of a crime.
Yes, Leuke was not convicted of the crime of rape. But pointing out that there are facts that strongly support an inference that he committed a heinous crime is in no way “ignorant.” Nor is using the harsher language “he’s a rapist.” For one, there is substantial reason to believe it’s true. Second, even if you don’t personally believe it to be true, the facts upon which that belief is based are in no way strong enough to think that anyone who reaches the opposite conclusion is “ignorant” and their opinions forever unworthy of your attention. I think it’s safe to give people the benefit of the doubt and understand that they are not saying they believe he was convicted of rape, but rather they believe that the facts suggest it’s likely he committed the crime (again, a lower standard).
Just saying “he wasn’t convicted, so nobody can say he did the crime” is a burying your head in the sand reaction. You may hate it that people treat the allegation as fact, but given the way rape law, prosecutorial discretion, and plea bargain justice work in this country it is absolutely not “ignorant” to suggest that someone may be guilty of the crime in the absence of a conviction.
by slamcactus on Dec 29, 2025 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm done here.
Court of public opinion wins again.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 30, 2025 2:19 AM EST up reply actions
Let me know when you get a response
I doubt it’s coming.
by Matt0330 on Dec 30, 2025 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
Smoak's first 74 PAs this season
.284/.393/.527, .321 BABIP
Montero 69 PAs: .328/.406/.590, .400 BABIP
The fallacy of SSS and new shiny things. Let’s not even discuss defense or park factors. If you look at month splits, Smoak’s been pretty good except his injury-plagued, 95 PA, 12 wRC+ July that completely destroyed his overall numbers.
The fact Montero still can’t play a position means I’d take the Rangers package every time.
by valencia on Dec 22, 2025 2:03 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Age
is a big factor here. Smoak was 3 years older than Montero, so similar performance should favor Montero.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com
by lemonjello on Dec 22, 2025 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Frist 74 PA?
If you are going to do a comparison do 69 PA for each guy. Otherwise your SSS comparison is even more meaningless.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 22, 2025 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
74 PA is the Mar/April line
I don’t care enough to trim 5 PAs and make it more equal. Point is Smoak has awesome small sample sizes too, so it’s meaningless to use Montero’s MLB line as proof of anything.
by valencia on Dec 22, 2025 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
I agree using Montero's MLB line is meaningless
Just like using a 74 PA sample size is meaningless.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 25, 2025 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
Probably. The difference is that the post 74 PA line for Smoak is explanable with his wrist injuries.
No, it isn’t MUCH better, but it is something.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 25, 2025 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
Also, interesting that Montero's largely disappointing minor league performance this year apparently isn't a data point for his supporters in this thread.
Overall, I think this one will end up too close to call. I’m still a big believer in Smoak. Montero will have more power (even after park adjustments) but Smoak’s better defense at 1B and better control of the strike zone will make up for it.
Adams is interesting, but McAllister is a middle reliever while Beavan is a useful back end starter and Lueke was/is (for TB) a good relief arm.
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
by alskor on Dec 25, 2025 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
I'm a Yankee fan and by no means a homer. Proof?
Montero’s the most overrated prospect in franchise history.
Can’t run, can’t throw, can’t play defense (anywhere), power potential overrated (1 20 HR season in five minor league years), can’t pull the ball, attitude problems, regressed in 2011 from 2010 playing in the same league.
Numbers don’t lie..Montero does NOT have an elite bat.
Jack Z’s not an idiot.
He took the Rangers offer because Justin Smoak’s a better baseball player than Jesus Montero.
Yesterday, today, and tomorrow.
by Kelsdad on Dec 23, 2025 12:41 PM EST reply actions
Maybe over-exaggerating, but he does make some fair points.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2025 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
we now are dumber for hearing your opinion.
FAIL
by St.Steve on Dec 23, 2025 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
You seem to fail on knowing who posts what stupid steve.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2025 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
Dont blame me for you being dumb.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2025 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
i was
Referring to kelsdad, kenny. I don’t know you, so I will reserve judgement.
by St.Steve on Dec 24, 2025 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
LOL indeed.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
by Drizzzy on Dec 27, 2025 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Montero’s the most overrated prospect in franchise history.
lol. he’s not even the most overrated prospect of the past 20 years. that’s Jeter.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 24, 2025 3:46 AM EST up reply actions
i hate jeter but come on....
he’s one of the top couple of shortstops over that time period….he’s more than lived up to his prospect hype
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 24, 2025 4:24 AM EST up reply actions
Do You Believe It?
There are only 28 players to hit 3,000 hits. Very few of them were shortstops. Add in the SB, the Gold Gloves, the World Series rings. How many prospects can be projected to achieve those numbers and accomplishments? — and then he accomplished them!!!
He pretty much has exceeded even the wildest expectations in 1994. He became an icon, the face of baseball in the manner of Jerry West or Gordy Howe. Imagine the onions someone has to have to say Derek Jeter was an over-hyped prospect. heh heh
by Hairylady on Dec 24, 2025 7:59 AM EST up reply actions
Are you talking about him as a prospect or his career?
by Yankees10 on Dec 24, 2025 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
then that was an incredibly dumb statement
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 24, 2025 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
Any reason whatsoever...
you believe this? Or are you just being snarky? Because that’s a really, really weird thing to say.
by slamcactus on Dec 29, 2025 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
Fail.
As far as most overrated Yankee prospect, I’ll go with Drew Henson.
by slamcactus on Dec 29, 2025 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
There were a lot
Ruben Rivera - well maybe not over-hyped, but definitely a huge bust. Although he has been a monster in Mexico for the last six years, so there’s that.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 29, 2025 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know
If he was, it wasn’t by much. He was a 21 year old (according to BB-Ref) who crushed AA and AAA in 1995 with a .944 OPS.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 29, 2025 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
Hm.
Yeah I didn’t include him because A) his track record was pretty good, and B) I thought he was 2-3 years older than his listed age. Not sure he’d qualify as most overrated if he wasn’t an age gate guy, just someone who didn’t pan out for whatever reason.
Henson had one good season fragment in the FSL and not much else. Eric Duncan was pretty overrated, too. I thought Cano was overrated as hell back in ~2004/2005 when he and Dioner Navarro were the Yanks top 2 prospects, and then he came up to the majors and hit way better than he ever did in the minors. Shows what I know.
by slamcactus on Dec 29, 2025 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Can’t run, can’t throw, can’t play defense (anywhere), power potential overrated (1 20 HR season in five minor league years), can’t pull the ball, attitude problems, regressed in 2011 from 2010 playing in the same league.
your problem is that Montero is still quite young and by no means is he a finished product. better still, the “can’t pull the ball” is factually incorrect. he pulls it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beEOylU9gW0&feature=related on his first ML hit. to say he “can’t pull the ball” is asinine, because he does there. perhaps you should say he “doesn’t pull the ball very much, limiting his overall power potential”. as for “attitude problems”, the Yankees have @#$%ed him around for 1.5 years (trade speculation, repeating a year at AAA when the Yankees NEEDED an influx of youth, etc.), if your organization did that to you, you’d be a bit annoyed, too. again, the regression had to do with focus and a desire to be in the ML when your organization is messing around with your development.
better still, to say that Montero doesn’t have an elite bat fails to acknowledge his .328/.406/.590 triple slash line in the MAJORS. yes, I know, SSS, but that wreaks of “elite bat” right there.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 24, 2025 3:53 AM EST up reply actions
You were doing just fine until you acknowledged his major league triple slash.
It “wreaks” (do you mean reeks?) of nothing. There are hundreds of examples of players who mashed it to start their careers and then did nothing.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 24, 2025 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
and how many of those players came up with the same expectations as Montero
To mash from the beginning? You can’t compare him to Shane Spencer or Kevin Maas, because neither one of them had expectations anywhere near Jesus.
There is no way Montero is the most overhyped Yankees prospect - and the assertion that Jeter is by JGS is crazy talk.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 24, 2025 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
hyped prospect does NOT mean they're not good players at the ML level
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 24, 2025 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
and apparently being a surefire HOF level player doesnt mean you didnt underachieve either
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 24, 2025 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, plenty of hyped prospects too.
70 pa’s or whatever it is, do. not. matter.
Austin Kearns.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 24, 2025 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
But there are hundreds of examples of the opposite
your point?
it reeks :-P
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 24, 2025 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, so don't judge anyone on such a small sample size. There's plenty of reasons to like Montero, but that part is just filler.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 24, 2025 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Ummm...
The only reason Montero hit 20 HRs in one minor league season is because last year, he hit his 20th homer in the majors. In 2009, he did hit only 17 HRs; over only 379 PAs as a 19 year old. He also hit 25 doubles and a triple in that year; I’m really not sure why you’re claiming he doesn’t have power
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Dec 25, 2025 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
The strangest thing about the nixed Mariners-Yankees trade
was that Cliff Lee was scheduled to pitch against the Yankees in Seattle that night. I’ve always wondered if Lee would have switched dugouts and faced the Mariners a couple of hours following the trade.
by reillocity on Dec 23, 2025 2:44 PM EST reply actions
Y'know what...
At this point, I don’t really care what Smoak does, I just want Montero to flame out big time so people will shut the hell up about him. I like the kid just fine, but c’mon people. Examining any trade by results a year later is not only stupid form a results based analysis standpoint, it’s not even fair to the people making the decisions at the time they happened. They don’t have the luxury of waiting a year to see if player X or player Y turned out better. Why should you get that luxury?
There’s no problem with analyzing processes to see if they’re flawed, but that isn’t what any of you are doing.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 25, 2025 6:19 AM EST reply actions
Good point
At the time the Mariners got a great haul for Lee. People seem to think that teams should have a crystal ball and be able to see the future but that just isn’t fair. Things happen and players values change, but at the time the Mariners got a great haul from the Rangers. Smoak was considered to be a can’t miss stud and while he has been very disappointing to date, he still does have significant upside.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 25, 2025 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
smarter community minds have prevailed
And Jesus has pulled ahead comfortably.
by St.Steve on Dec 26, 2025 9:25 AM EST reply actions
If the package
had the same names but were Padres or something then Montero would win in a landslide.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
by Drizzzy on Dec 27, 2025 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
Uh.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 27, 2025 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
I really think it's the other way around
if they were Padres or something Smoak would win in a landslide. Montero can’t play a position and has pedestrian minor league numbers.
by Bososx13 on Dec 27, 2025 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
granted
his AAA numbers arent absurd, but calling someone who has a career .308/.366/.501 line in the minors, playing in pitcher leagues and some of the worst hitting parks in the minors, all while being very young for his league, “pedestrian” is a gross over-exaggeration.
also saying “he can’t play a position” is also bad. seeing as how they have only ever played him at catcher how do we know he can’t play 1B? now, saying he may not be able to play 1B because he has never played there is fine, but baseball is littered with guys who move on to play an adequate 1B coming from higher up in the defensive spectrum
by skiinginNJ on Dec 27, 2025 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The first base thing has more to do with Mark Teixiera than anything else.
There’s no way they’re going to let an experimental failed catcher fool around at first base when they have a highly paid gold glover already there.
Besides, there are some folks playing first base who shouldn’t be, but their team’s DH position is already filled as well. Some DHs have to play first during interleague just to keep their bats in the lineup. In none of these cases would you say that they can “play” first base. They just occupy it.
I don’t know where the stigma that Montero can’t play first comes from, but the reality is that he just doesn’t have a position there right now for New York. And, besides, there isn’t a ton of defensive value difference between a first baseman and a DH anyway, so quibbling on the details is pointless.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 27, 2025 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
Take your bias away form this conversation
pedestrian numbers? Even if that bullshit was true Montero is consistently one of the younger player sin his competition.
No one thinks Lavarnway is sticking at catcher either so I can’t even being to imagine why the fck anyone arguing that Montero is overrated but Lavarnway should be considered as fcking Jesus Christ.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
by Drizzzy on Dec 29, 2025 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Montero hype is unjustified
Most people agree that Ryan Lavarnway has a much better chance at sticking at catcher than Montero.
Lets look at hitting 6 year PECOTA projections from claydavenport.com. the PA projections are a little messed up so I’ll use per 600 PAs. Home runs per 600 PAs. Lavarnway 30, Montero 28. EQA Lavarnway .280 Montero .284. wOBA Lavarnway .349 Montero .358. WARP/600 PAs(which still counts Montero at catcher, although a very bad one) Lavarnway 4.0. Montero 4.1.
WAR/600 PAs (lets give Lavarnway a 50% shot at catcher so give him half catcher runs) Lavarnway 4.01 Montero 2.49. Now lets give them both a 100% chance at staying at catcher even though that’ll never happen
by Bososx13 on Dec 27, 2025 7:31 PM EST reply actions
2 questions
1) are you normalizing their age, or simply running it from now?
2) while most places say lavarnway has a better shot at sticking at catcher, its not nearly as optimistic as you are making it out. you are still looking at a non-catcher
by skiinginNJ on Dec 27, 2025 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
So if he's a non catcher
Montero is about .2 wins better a year, a miniscule difference, not enough to be ranked a top 10 prospect in baseball and Lavarnway a 75-100 prospect. And the shot at staying at catcher probably makes Lavarnway better to me.
by Bososx13 on Dec 27, 2025 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
why
is this even about lavarnway? even of he has a 5% chance at being a catcher its still a really bad chance. imaybe people who scout and watch baseball and arent redsox fans see something different than pecota does. projection systems are a great tool but, they are still just one tool
by skiinginNJ on Dec 27, 2025 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
how on
earth could anyone quantify to a percentage point how likely it is someone stays at the catcher position? its completely absurd
by skiinginNJ on Dec 27, 2025 7:54 PM EST up reply actions
sorry my computer messed up
if you give them a 100% chance of staying at catcher Lavarnway gets 4.6 WAR Montero 4.8. So it looks like Montero is a little better hitter but not even close enough to make up for the positional difference. Why is Montero ranked so high and Lavarnway ranked so low? now I understand Montero is 2 years younger, but from Tango’s aging pattern, the two seasons Montero has that Lavarnway dosen’t and the two seasons Lavarnway has that Montero dosen’t are about the same % of peak performance.
by Bososx13 on Dec 27, 2025 7:40 PM EST up reply actions
I made an error
I gave Lavarnway a 50% chance at staying at catcher but not a 50% chance at DH. using this for just the age 24-27 seasons for both. Giving Lavarnway a 30% chance at catcher and calling MOntero a DH in just 24-27 seasons, Lavarnway comes out 2.63 to 2.57. My point is they are very close and not ranked like it.
by Bososx13 on Dec 27, 2025 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
again
lavarnway has actual data from his age 22-23 season, unlike montero who has none so unless you are discarding them the projection has questionable merits.
by skiinginNJ on Dec 27, 2025 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
I was actually just doing the years
where they both had future projections. It really didn’t seem that hard to understand
by Bososx13 on Dec 27, 2025 8:00 PM EST up reply actions
the problem
isnt the projection, its the data going into the projection
by skiinginNJ on Dec 27, 2025 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Lavarnway comparison is a valid one, subtracting the sabermetric nonsense.
Lavarnway is not a good defensive catcher, like Montero, and has weaknesses throughout his game; footwork, throwing, lateral movement, game calling, etc. It’s not just one or two things like with Piazza, its’ everything.
Offensively they are very similar throughout their minor league careers and yet has never appeared in BA’s top 100.
The love-fest for Montero as a prospect makes no sense.
by Kelsdad on Dec 27, 2025 9:01 PM EST reply actions
Stats are just one part of the equation
Age matters, and so do scouting reports. In his age 21 season, Ryan Lavarnaway posted a .907 OPS in low-A ball. In his age 21 season, Jesus Montero put up an .814 OPS in AAA in what was widely considered a down year for him. That’s why comparing Montero and Lavarnaway statistically is pretty useless, because Montero was significantly younger at every level. I am no scout, but scouting reports have considered Montero to be an elite offensive prospect, which is good enough for me. I haven’t heard any scout make the same statements about Lavarnaway.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com
by lemonjello on Dec 27, 2025 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Lavarnway
has really good throwing actually. His Caught Stealing % numbers are up there with Wilin Rosario, higher than Travis D’Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco. I don’t think his blocking is bad either as his PB/WP numbers aren’t bad.
by Bososx13 on Dec 28, 2025 8:18 AM EST up reply actions
It's been proven that
hitters that can hti at younger ages project to accumulate for WAR. As I said if Montero was a Padre everyone in the world would love him.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
by Drizzzy on Dec 29, 2025 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
correlation does not prove causation
younger players tend to be high school/international draftees, and hit the majors earlier
that doesn’t mean younger = better
besides Montero will be 22 next season (first full season in MLB probably). Smoak was 23 his first (almost) full season. 1 year is not that big of a difference.
by valencia on Dec 29, 2025 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
"if Montero was a Padre everyone in the world would love him."
If Montero was a Padre, no one would have heard of him.
by Kelsdad on Dec 29, 2025 3:27 PM EST reply actions
This is just stupid
With his numbers anybody would have heard of him. Jeff Burroughs got lots of hype and he didn’t have numbers close to Montero’s.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 30, 2025 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
Guessing you meant Sean Burroughs
But I agree with your point. Reaching AAA as a 20 year old, the youngest player in the league, having the fifth-best OPS in the league for players with over 100 games behind 36, 30, 25 year olds and one other 20 year old (Freddie Freeman) would get you noticed in any system, period.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 30, 2025 1:03 AM EST up reply actions
Yes
My bad, I meant Sean Burroughs.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 30, 2025 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but it wouldn't get you linked to every trade possibility in the universe.
Montero is the most talked about trade chip since… Phil Hughes. There’s a reason that folks are mentioning the Yankee connection. It does matter in who gets talked about more.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 30, 2025 2:21 AM EST up reply actions
But the reply was to Kels statement that
“If Montero was a Padre, no one would have heard of him.”
That is just plain wrong. He wouldn’t be talked about in trades, but he still would be talked about as being an upper tier prospect.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 30, 2025 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
If you guys don't think the organization you play for plays a part in prospect rankings or publicity, then I have a bridge to sell you.
And the fact you all believe he’s legit means your all smoking from the same pipe.
Look at his numbers.
He’s a DH, period. Maybe he could catch 40-50 games a year, but not on a consistent basis, maybe more like day game after night game, on getaway days, etc.
He regressed in AAA this year.
Mike Stanton is three weeks older than Montero.
Sorry, I’m calling bullshit on Montero.
You want him, you can have him.
And this is coming from a Yankee fan.
by Kelsdad on Dec 30, 2025 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not saying who you play for can't increase a player's hype
What I am saying is that Montero, on any team, would still be hyped.
And no one but you try to compare him to Mike Stanton, because everyone here knows Stanton is the better player.
Is Montero a DH? Probably. Although he could just as well be a Napoli—type C/DH/1B.
And I did look at his numbers. In 2010, players with over 100 games in AAA, Montero, the youngest player in AAA, was fifth in OPS. I am not sure how you so easily discount his bat. He has an elite bat. If he doesn’t progress any further, he is a Billy Butler type bat. If he does, who knows what he can do.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 30, 2025 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
RE: "What I am saying is that Montero, on any team, would still be hyped."
To this degree?
Let’s face the truth here, Yankee prospects get hyped more than any other. Before Montero it was Hughes. Before Hughes was Jackson. Before Jackson was Tabata.
Why do I know so much about these guys? It’s not because they’re Padre prospects.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 30, 2025 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
"Yankee prospects get hyped more than any other"
Well, the Red Sox prospects get pretty hyped. Any team with good depth has their prospects hyped (Rays, Royals, Padres).
Montero and Hughes were legitimately hyped, and would have been similarly ranked in any system. Jackson and Tabata, not so much.
And for a team whose prospects are so over-hyped, their five top home-grown contributors last year (Rivera, Cano, Gardner, Nova, Robertson) were all pretty much ignored by the prospect community - none of them were ever even on a BA top 100 list. I think the Yankees prospects are over-hyped line has been outdated for the last 8 years. In the 1990s-early 2000s, it was a bit more relevant.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 30, 2025 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes and no.
Do Sox prospects get hyped? Maybe a bit. But I haven’t really seen a Red Sox player lately that was highly ranked but hasn’t performed. Lars Anderson is probably it. The others have done really well and validated their hype at least in part.
Not to say that certain Yankee prospects haven’t. I think there’s a lot of folks who have been disappointed by Hughes, fair or not. But you do bring up an interesting point, and it’s something that askor mentioned in the Yankee Org discussion thread. There seems to be a bit of an overrating or overexposure going on for the “top 4” Yankee prospects whereas the next 4 in line are better prospects not talked about as much.
The Yankees have managed to find some interesting nuggets hither and tither, who never got the hype other prospects have. I don’t remember much talk about Roberston, but anybody who did never saw this coming. He’s doing some pretty amazing things. Cano was never thought to be this good either. Gardner’s value lies in his speed and defense, but he’s made the most of that.
Anyway, Yankee prospect overhype, we have to understand, is not necessarily the product of the team, but the fans. And let’s not forget that they have the largest fanbase… period. When you have that many mouths talking, people are going to get overhyped. Again, fair or not, that’s just how it is.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 31, 2025 6:43 AM EST up reply actions
"because everyone here knows Stanton is the better player."
And yet was never rated ahead of Montero on any prospect list.
Montero’s bat is not elite, which is why I’m discounting him.
Good bat?
Sure.
Elite, perennial All-Star bat?
No chance.
by Kelsdad on Dec 30, 2025 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
why
Should anyone here give a shit what you think about montero?
by St.Steve on Dec 30, 2025 8:30 PM EST up reply actions
Well.. this is kind of the thread for it...
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 31, 2025 6:44 AM EST up reply actions
And Albert Pujols was ranked behind 41 other players
So that discounts all of them for having the nerve to be ranked lower as a prospect than their success at the ML level.
You are in the significant minority to claim Montero’s bat is not elite. Most everyone agrees that it has elite potential, even with his defensive/position questions. What exactly about Montero and his approach at the plate and results so far make you think he is not elite? And since Harper isn’t elite to you either, just curious who you consider an elite bat this year?
by cookiedabookie on Dec 30, 2025 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
"You are in the significant minority to claim Montero’s bat is not elite. Most everyone agrees that it has elite potential"
Elite potential, yes, currently elite, no.
Once you get past the contradiction, it’s not hard to see the difference.
by Kelsdad on Dec 30, 2025 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
Because Stanton has proven his elite bat potential at the major league level. Montero has not (sample size is still too small). But if you look at their bat potential at the same age and development period, Montero and Stanton are quite similar. Stanton had an edge in power, but also struck out a scary amount, much more than Montero.
You know, I really want to like you Kels, but you come off as an asshole with your condescension and dismissive attitude towards others here.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 31, 2025 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Albert Pujols was a minor leaguer in 2000, genius.
Post fail.
by Kelsdad on Dec 30, 2025 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
How is that a post fail?
You’re comment was Stanton was never ranked ahead of Montero, which is proof of Montero being overrated. That is like saying everyone ahead of Pujols was overrated because he was the most successful prospect from that class. It is a stupid comment that doesn’t make any sense. Some prospects perform better than expected in the majors, some worse, but it has no bearing on a rational conversation of a single prospect. The fact that you brought Stanton into the conversation is a red herring.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 31, 2025 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Because we're talking about today, not 2000.
Stanton is a legitimate comparison, not necessarily because of age although it does matter to an extent, but because of accomplishments.
Look, no one can be definitively right or wrong on a prospect until his career is over, hopefully we agree on that.
If you honestly believe Montero is an elite bat and are basing it on first hand knowledge and experience, then I wholeheartedly respect your opinion.
If you’re saying Montero is an elite bat because you read it in Keith Law’s column, then you all are just regurgitating someone else’s opinion.
I’ve seen Montero play probably 70 times, about a third of those in person.
I saw him in spring training, I saw him in the IL, and I saw him as an 18 year old in the Sally.
We all played as kids, right?
We all remember the “big, fat kid” who was physically mature way before anyone else and who could hit a ball a mile or dunk a basketball at 12.
But as we all got older and we ourselves matured, the distance between him and us got smaller and smaller, and by the time we got to high school had caught up to him, or in some cases had passed him.
That’s Montero.
He dominated the Gulf Coast League and the Sally not because he was more talented, but because he was physically bigger and stronger.
The competition has caught up with him and has started to pass him.
He’s lost 20 pounds of baby fat over the past couple of years, but otherwise is exactly the same size now as he was when he signed.
Name me another player with 2000 minor league plate appearances who gets as much hype as Montero does, especially one who can’t play a defensive position?
Serious question Cookie, you seem like one of the more knowledgeable posters here.
Bud Selig grants you an expansion franchise for 2012 with the condition your 40 man roster can only be made up of prospects, guys who have Rookie eligibility this year.
Would you pick Montero?
by Kelsdad on Dec 31, 2025 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
"Would you pick Montero?"
What pick? If it is the first, no. I have him at 11 overall in my overall prospect ranking, because of his defensive value issues and some good pitchers. If it was based on his bat only, he would be top three with Trout and Harper.
And your argument that he matured early doesn’t take away from him that he is that mature already. He may not have much room for improvement physically from your point of view, but he doesn’t need to to still have an elite bat at the ML level.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 31, 2025 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
The pick doesn't matter.
and neither does your ranking.
This isn’t about rankings, it’s about building a team.
And you still haven’t explained why you think Montero’s bat is elite.
by Kelsdad on Dec 31, 2025 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Well if I am picking 40 prospects
Then yes, absolutely, I would pick him. He may not be able to stick at catcher, but he still has a chance. Even if he doesn’t, as a 1b or DH his bat is plenty good, and better than any 1B/DH in the minors. The players I would pick ahead of him are because they have better positional value.
As I said, he has one of the top three prospect bats for me, with Trout and Harper. And I think his ability to be one of the best hitters in AAA as the youngest player in the league shows his bat is elite. He has consistently had elite results throughout the minors while being one of the youngest at each stop. He has great swing mechanics (subjective as that may be). He shows power to the opposite field, which is a great sign from such a young player, as well as the ability to pull the ball.
And I don’t remember you saying why you do not think his bat is elite.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 31, 2025 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
“because everyone here knows Stanton is the better player.”
And yet was never rated ahead of Montero on any prospect list.
Well, that’s not entirely true:
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 31, 2025 8:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
For the same reason we should give a shit about what you think?
by Kelsdad on Dec 30, 2025 8:36 PM EST reply actions
because
I’m not some new member and have a track record around, you come off like a smart ass.
by St.Steve on Dec 30, 2025 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
A track record of understanding how the "reply" feature works
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 31, 2025 1:56 AM EST up reply actions 8 recs
Classic.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 31, 2025 6:48 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
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