Not a Rookie- Outfield Rankings
I always enjoy looking back on those players who have recently lost their prospect eligibility but have been unable to establish themselves at the big league level. This year there seem to be several outfielders who fit this description- Matt LaPorta, Travis Snider*, Jordan Schafer*, Drew Stubbs*, Cameron Maybin, Gerardo Parra*, Carlos Gomez, Travis Buck*, Aaron Cunningham, Wil Venable*, Nate Schierholtz*, Matt Joyce*, and Wladimir Balentien. If these guys were still prospect eligible how would you grade them, and how would you rank them?
I would go:
1. Travis Snider*, 22.2, LF (TOR)- Got off to a slow start, then ripped up AAA upon demotion, and looked a lot better when he was recalled. He's a better athlete than he's given credit for, although he is an average at best defender in left. The strikeouts concern me, and he has struggled against lefties throughout his career. However, those blemishes are more than made up for by his patient approach and power potential. He's still 22, so there is plenty of room for improvement upon his 2009 numbers. I think he'll be a guy who makes a couple of all star teams, and has a solid career as a 6. Grade A-
2. Cameron Maybin, 23.0, CF (FLA)- Strikeouts continue to plague him at the major league level, but he really cut them down in AAA. The 5-tool potential is still there, and he is just 23. Both CHONE and Bill James project him for a .355 wOBA in 2009. I think that might be a bit high for 2010, but not too far off the mark. There is a higher bust potential here, than with Snider or LaPorta, but I think there is a good chance his is an above-average major league center fielder. Grade B+
3. Matt LaPorta, 25.3, LF/1B (CLE)- Position is still up in the air. Looks like a below average defensive left-fielder, but I like the bat. He looks like more of a 20-25 homerun hitter- rather than a true slugger- but he doesn't strikeout much, and he has the patient approach to put up solid OBP numbers. I don't think he is going to be the star that he looked like 2 years ago, but he should be a regular left-fielder for a long time. Grade B+
4. Jordan Schafer*, 23.7, CF (ATL)- The Braves thought he was big league ready, naming him their opening day center fielder, despite the fact he had not yet reached AA. However, he struggled mightily, striking out in almost 40 percent of his at-bats. In fairness, he was battling through a wrist injury that ultimately ended his season in June, but it's hard to find many positives in his debut. Billed as an impressive defender in center, Schafer put up a -8 UZR/150, granted in very small sample size. Though I think he still should be considered at least an average defender. With the moves the big club has made, it looks like they have the luxury of starting him in AAA. I still think he is a future regular, but the star potential seems to have diminished. Grade B
5. Drew Stubbs*, 25.6, CF (CIN)- Speed, patience, and the glove to win several gold glove awards. However, I am concerned about high strikeout totals and a lack of power throughout his minor league career (despite getting strong grades for his raw power). I think we can expect a .260/335/390 lines from Stubbs, with gold-glove caliber defense. That package adds up to a solid major league center fielder. Grade B
6. Carlos Gomez, 24.4, CF (MIL)- Regression with the bat in 2009 was fueled by a near 50 point dip in BABIP. That dip came with a 2 percent increase in line-drive rate, and served to mask improvements in plate-discipline and strikeout rate. I doubt he will ever eclipse the 15 homerun plateau, but I think 8-12 is realistic going forward. He is a plus defender in center, and a guy I think a lot of people have given up too early on. I think the Brewers will be pleasantly surprised by Gomez in 2010. Grade B
7. Matt Joyce*, 25.8, RF (TB)- I'm sure the Rays wish they had a do-over on the Jackson-for-Joyce swap of a year ago, but Joyce is a valuable piece. He has big-time power, and he is willing to walk. He struggles against lefties, and his swing can get long, so he profiles as a platoon player rather than a true regular. However, there is a lot of value in that. Grade B-
8. Gerardo Parra*, 22.11, CF (ARZ)- Held his own in close to 500 major league plate appearances, but I'm not a big fan going forward. He needs a right-handed caddy going forward, as his .220/.250/.220 triple slash line isn't going to get it done against lefties. Furthermore, he is a below-average defender in center, with an impatient approach and little power. He is obviously still young enough to improve, but he is always a second-division regular/platoon outfielder for me. Grade B-
9. Aaron Cunningham, 23.11, LF/RF (SD)- Never a big tools guy, Cunningham continues to produce. He put up an OPS's of 894 and 851 in the last two seasons, and there doesn't seem to be much left for him to prove in the minors. Acquired in the Kevin Kuzmanoff trade, Cunningham may make a nice platoon with Will Venable. There isn't much star potential, but Cunningham should become at least a solid 4th outfielder, with an outside chance that he becomes a regular. Grade B-
10. Nate Schierholtz*, 26.2, RF (SFG)- 2009 was the third year in which Schierholtz played in the majors, but it is still unclear as to what his ultimate role is. He put up back-to-back isolated powers of above .220 in AAA in 2007 and 2008, but he is yet to show that kind of power in the big leagues. While he doesn't strikeout much, he is an impatient hitter who rarely draws a walk, putting even more pressure on him to hit for power. Unlike Venable, Parra, and Joyce, Schierhotz has hung in well against left-handers over his big league career, so he doesn't profile as a utility player. UZR likes his defense in right, but we still have under 1,000 innings of pro data to go on. I think Schierholtz will hit for more power in 2010, but I never see him becoming a true regular. Grade B-
11. Will Venable*, 27.5, RF (SD)- The oldest member of this list, Venable was an all-ivy selection in both basketball and baseball while at Princeton. He is a plus athlete, who can play all three outfield spots, although he is best suited in the corners, where he profiles as a plus defender. At the plate, he has the raw power to hit 20-25 homeruns a year. However, he struck out in over 30 percent of his plate appearances and never projects to hit for average. Like Joyce, he struggles against lefties and profiles as a solid platoon option. Grade B-
12. Wladimir Balentien, 25.9, RF (CIN)- Acquired for Robert Manuel in July, Balentien improved upon his 2008 line, but still posted a below 700 OPS in 2009. Balentien's biggest problem has been his poor pitch recognition skills, although he did cut his strikeout rate by 6 percent in 2009. Once considered a top 100 prospect, Baletien still has the tools to become a major league regular, but the chances of that seem to be fading quickly. He is competing with Chris Dickerson, Johny Gomes, and Lance Nix for regular playing time in left field. Grade B-
13. Travis Buck*, 26.5, RF (OAK)- Looked like a potential all star after solid debut in 2007, but injuries and ineffectiveness have dogged him since. Looks like a reserve outfielder at this point. Grade C+
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I might add Rasmus to this
but I can see why he wouldn’t be here anyway.
I really like Cameron Maybin, I think that he will be fantastic at the MLB level with a bit more experience, even better than Snider at some point possibly.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 27, 2026 4:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and has a solid career as a 6
what does this mean?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Feb 27, 2026 11:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
I was afraid I might be the only one who didn’t get that. What is a 6?
by FI2 on Feb 28, 2026 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a rating on the 2-8 (20-80) scale
As I understand it, the scouting scale goes:
2- No Value
3- Reserve
4- Platoon
5- Solid regular
6- Above average regular, maybe a couple of All-Star appearances
7- Consistent All Star
8- HOF
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 28, 2026 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ah i see
then yes, i could see that out of snider.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Feb 28, 2026 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Julio Borbon
What about adding Julio Borbon to the list? I believe he surpassed his rookie status. Rasmus would be a good addition as well.
by JHawk5 on Feb 28, 2026 12:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
kyle blanks?
i know blanks is more a 1b man but until the padres move adrian, he’s an outfielder by default, isn’t he?
What is the youngest you can die of old age?
by ralu25 on Feb 28, 2026 7:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think Stubbs is gonna surprise people who just look at his minor league numbers
I believe in the power. He’s always had the raw power, but up until he hit the majors, the Reds had him working on shortening his swing to make more contact. Scouts have always praised his raw power and his build certainly supports that theory. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t put up 15-20 homers annually, with the potential there for a few years with more than that. The man has more tools than a room full of Cubs fans and guys like that tend to take a bit longer to put it all together. He’s gonna have some strikeouts, but I think we’re looking at a guy capable of putting up something like 60-70 walks, 30-35 doubles, 5-10 triples, 15-20 homers, 40+ steals, and plus-plus CF defense to go along with a respectable enough .260-.270 average. That might not be as sexy as some other guys, but it’s sure as hell more productive. Drew Stubbs will consistently be a 3-4 win player. Believe in the tools.
by Geki on Feb 28, 2026 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Average
I don’t see the average that high, especially if he is going to start trying to hit more power. He is a career .269 minor league hitter and that counts for something even if they were working on his swing (and if they were shortening it why did he still have K/AVG issues?). I fully think he can have a few double digit HR seasons, but I just don’t believe as much as the other aspects when it comes to his bat.
by hybrid on Feb 28, 2026 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That projection is more than a little optimistic
How many guys who have never hit more than 12 homeruns in a minor league season end up hitting 15-20 in the big leagues? And at 25, it’s not like he is particularly young.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 28, 2026 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The power is there
He hit 8 in 196 PAs and he plays in a very friendly park. I really wouldn’t be surprised if he hits for that kind of power (especially considering the scouting reports projected him as having that kind of power). Here are the true distances for his HRs (per Hittracker):
410
410
402
383
417
393
369
363
by jar75 on Feb 28, 2026 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Another thing about Reds prospects ...
A few years ago, I interviewed Joey Votto and asked him about his patient approach. He said that he didn’t have a choice — that Cincinnati makes its MiLB hitters take the first strike. It was done to help them acclimate to letting strikes pass by.
In my opinion, that makes the Reds guys more defensive at the plate. A guy like Stubbs probably is buying in, learning to work counts and paying more attention to pitch recognition.
So, yes, I also believe Stubbs will exhibit more power as he progresses. It’s not his focus at the moment.
"Most overrated prospect in the minors." -- Bravesin07 on Madison Bumgarner
by criminal type on Feb 28, 2026 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they only did that for a while
That’s actually a rather infamous policy . . .it ended up crippling a lot of the Cincinnati hitters at the plate and not really helping anybody very much.
Votto’s .256/.330/.425 FSL line in 2005 actually wasn’t that bad given the context . . .
by mrkupe on Mar 1, 2026 2:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't get me wrong, I get the doubt.
Looking solely at the statistics, I can absolutely see why somebody would doubt his power. I just don’t think the stats tell the whole story with Stubbs. Guys with no power (which you might think he is if you just look at his minor league numbers) don’t fluke their way to 8 homers in less than 200 PAs, and he’s got a swing that should continue to produce power at the major league level. The scouts have always said the power was there and as somebody mentioned below, the Reds have been known to limit their prospects’ strengths in the minors in order to enhance their weaknesses, with the expectation that the strengths will still be there when these players hit the majors (though the Reds no longer force their hitters to take the first pitch — that was an organizational philosophy two GMs ago).
If I were to guess, I’d say most of the posters here either haven’t seen Drew Stubbs play or have seen him play very little, but he’s not a small man. He’s 6-4 and nothing but lean muscle. He’s built like a wide receiver and an absolutely freakish athlete. The Mike Cameron comp gets thrown around a lot, but I think it really fits Stubbs. He probably won’t hit for quite as much power as Cameron has, but he’s faster than Cameron was and I think the rest of their skillsets are very, very similar. There are successful players that the statheads love and scouts hate, but there are also players that the scouts tell you to believe in while the numbers don’t seem to bear it out, and I fully expect Stubbs to be a prime example of this.
by Geki on Feb 28, 2026 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand your points
As I state in the write-up, scouts love the raw power and the athleticism, but at some point you have to hit the homeruns. That line you give for Stubbs in your prior post would make him one of the most valuable center fielders in the game! I like him, and if I could do this over I would put him ahead of Schafer, but that seems like a best case scenario, not a likely outcome.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Mar 1, 2026 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think its more some want to believe that statistics have a power that they may not and if Stubbs actually does hit for a lot more power it challenges that notion.
by JetSam on Mar 1, 2026 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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