Breakout time for Delmon Young (?)

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 1:05 PM EST Comment 56 comments

I'm bullish on Delmon...

I think he will break out this year, especially if he could find his way into the 2 hole:

Span
Young
Mauer
Morneau
Cuddyer
Kubel/Thome...

I'm actually surprised that he is already considered a bust, 3 years under his belt now, and he never met the lofty expectations (yet), but he still is a career .290 hitter. This year, the confidence come and the power follows. I could also see him steal a few more bases, and have 10-15 this year.

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Orlando Hudson

will be manning the 2 hole for the Twins this year. I wouldn’t want to see Delmon there, anyway.

"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry

"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven

by smoooooth on Feb 16, 2026 1:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

7th

I see Young batting 7th or even 8th this year.

by LawBe on Feb 16, 2026 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Still

Still think he can break-out!

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Note

Note I mentioned, “work his way into…”; OHudson is injury prone (mainly freak injuries, but ip nonetheless) and if Delmon is hitting well if/when an injury occurs he could earn that spot. His SO rate is low as well.

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

20% career K rate

is about league average. It’s the .322 OBP that I just don’t like in the 2 spot Id say Hardy would get moved there, he hit there some for the Brewers

"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry

"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven

by smoooooth on Feb 16, 2026 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My Bad

How could I forget Gardenhire’s love of Nick Punto. If Hudson goes down, Punto will be doing the hitting, if it can be called that, in the second spot

"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry

"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven

by smoooooth on Feb 16, 2026 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It probably has something to do with his 3% walk rate last year

by jar75 on Feb 16, 2026 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yep

this is why Vitters did not crack my top 75…. i’m too weary from Delmon/Francoeur. You simply must be able to work the zone to be a good mlb hitter.

by daveh33 on Feb 16, 2026 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Giving him credit for a 290 career BA kind of misses the point….not irrelevant, but the weakness is the BB rate.

by FI2 on Feb 16, 2026 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1 on Vitters

Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T; Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Feb 16, 2026 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Career .290 hitter, sure

but until he stops swinging at anything and everything or starts making more contact, he won’t be anything more than an undisciplined free-swinger with weak power and poor defense. In other words, a bust.

by ThomasG on Feb 16, 2026 1:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ive been pegging young

for a breakout for the last 3 years lol…i still kinda feel it this year, but i wouldnt bet on it

by miraclemets on Feb 16, 2026 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well

the bet gives you a much better risk/reward than ever before, in my opinion.

No one (or very few) expect it now.

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's because you'd sort of expect some kind of progress by now

And, aside from a modest increase in IsoP last season, he hasn’t displayed any.

by ThomasG on Feb 16, 2026 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

female poster?

ive been “pegging” young

by pedrophile on Feb 16, 2026 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

tough breakout

is he gonna get 500 AB’s? They signed Thome, and I’m assuming that they did this to be the DH, which means Kubel in LF and Cuddyer in right, at least against RHP. . . .

by SoCalSoxFan on Feb 16, 2026 2:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kubel/Delmon/Thome

Should be steady rotation, I think total ABs should be in the order above.

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kubel isn't going to get rotated

He’s the #5 hitter and Gardenhire even used him against LHPs in that slot by the end of the year. Thome is essentially a worse version of Kubel.

I see Thome spelling Kubel every once in a while, but I would fully expect Thome to steal a good amount of ABs from Delmon, especially late in games.

Then again, predicting what Ron Gardenhire will do is like one of those fundraisers where you try to guess where the cow will crap, only the cow is actually using some logic to make its decisions.

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure I was clear on this point

Kubel and Thome have fairly similar skill sets. Although Kubel will be spelled by Thome for regular rest occasionally, there really is no advantage to him taking ABs from Kubel.

Kubel could really be called a better version of Thome right now. So, late in the game there is no reason you would pinch hit the LH, low AVG, good OBP, good power Thome for the LH, med AVG, good OBP, good power Kubel. They aren’t exactly the same as hitters, but theyre similar enough that you would never replace Kubel with Thome in game, especially given what it would do to your defense. Thome was clearly not brought in to take ABs from Kubel - what would be the point…? Thome must be there to take ABs from Delmon, who doesn’t hit RHP very well at all (another thing mitigating against a breakout).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=youngde03&year=2009&t=b

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kubel

Looks like he hit .320 at home & .280 away, so answering my own ?, he may be slightly affected by the move.

The new park is supposedly pitcher friendly.

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt it

Kubel has lots of power and the dimensions of the new park are pretty favorable for him.

His hit chart: http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=min&playerID=430585&statType=1

His hit tracker HR chart: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_5040&type=hitter

The new park is 331 feet down the RF line, 371 in the RF gap and 402 to dead center. Might lose a couple, but the cold weather is 10 times bigger a concern for me.

Here are his HRs from hittracker - the vast majority of them were HRs in any park.

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice Chart!

But I think the ball flew better indoors….

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That chart, as indicated at the bottom, is adjusted for that effect.

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Have to be careful with park dimensions

The RF gap as measured in the new park isn’t the same degree from the RF line as the RF gap as measured in the old park .

by Rotofan on Feb 17, 2026 1:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I heard it was hitter friendly

Didn’t they move the fences in?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Feb 16, 2026 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Opening this year

Did they move the fences in before they even started playing?

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Compared to the Metrodome

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Feb 16, 2026 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Aha

Yes, I had a problem with reading comprehension there.

It’s less about the dimensions and more about the cold air and wind effects outside…

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 17, 2026 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wind

Cold weather may reduce homeruns, but who knows how the wind will play. It certainly didn’t hurt in NY this year.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Feb 17, 2026 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

I don’t think Delmon is going to be seeing very much of Peavy Grienke Verlander types. He’ll get most of the ABs against lefties.

"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry

"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven

by smoooooth on Feb 16, 2026 3:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Not

Not seeing Peavy Grienke or Verlander is a classic prescription for a break-out!

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, it isn't

If a team gets really unlucky with the unbalanced schedule they’ll hit an intra-divisional ace maybe 5 times. That’s 20 ABs. Sparing Young a maximum of 50-60 ABs against very good pitchers isn’t any kind of recipe for a breakout, especially if he misses that time because he’s being used ~85-90% of the time against lefties. It’s tough to break out if you get less than 300 plate appearances in a season.

by slamcactus on Feb 16, 2026 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kubel?

I like Kubel, but do you think his power may be sapped a bit out of the Metrodome?

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2026 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Very little of Kubel's power was b/c of the Metrodome. In fact, if you look at his hit chart (I posted the line above - NOT the HR chart) you can see a large clustering of doubles down the RF line

Those went off the baggie. Those were all easy HRs in the new park.

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your all over this

"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry

"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven

by smoooooth on Feb 16, 2026 3:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Kubel

Has more road homers than home. Metrodome supresses HR slightly while increasing doubles and triples

"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry

"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven

by smoooooth on Feb 16, 2026 3:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

agree to extent

i think this is the year he sees a power increase, but the walks will remain low however.

.290/320/440 with 20 homers is my guess

by ScottAZ on Feb 16, 2026 3:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

well

2 reasons why im bullish on Young.

1. ) He was one of our better players last couple months last year. He really was playing good ball down the stretch.

2.) He went from 239 lbs, to 210 lbs. He’s in GREAT shape, if he re-dedicated himself to getting in shape, and being at his best, it may translate in games.

We’ll see what happens, won’t shock me either way.

by hotshotschamp on Feb 16, 2026 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If his defense can just get back to the point where the Rays were willing to play him in CF

then he’ll be a pretty valuable player, though one in the High AVG/Low OBP/HIGH SLG Good defense mode. Think OF version of Adrian Beltre - but not world class defense or that much power…

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so

not like Beltre in the slightest?

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Feb 16, 2026 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

Pretty much. I dont know. Whenever I think of a player with a good hit tool, is a good fielder and who hits for power but has a weak approach I immediately think of Beltre. Most of those types of players I dont care for. Approach is a big deal to me, typically. Beltre was the guy who I always wanted on my team despite the flaws. He did enough everywhere else to be a good player despite a flawed approach. I think Delmon can be that kind of player if he hits for power like he did in the second half and gets his defense back to where it was a few years back.

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He was beyond awful in CF with the Rays

The only reason he was there is because Crawford refused to play there. Literally the only option for them that year. He’s been one of the worst defensive players in all of baseball over the past two years. He’s been worth -.5 WAR over the course of his career and -1.6 WAR over his time in Minnesota. I see very little reason for optimism that he will either break out or be a productive player at the big league level. And I’m not really sure what he brings off the bench either given his lack of defensive ability.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Feb 17, 2026 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, fine

But he was considered a better defender than he is now… Im not at all saying he has some kind of future in CF or anything. Im just saying his glove was more highly regarded back then…

by alskor on Feb 17, 2026 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In the minors the reports were that he had the tools to be an above-average corner OF.

That just never materialized. His rookie year in Tampa he showed on of the best arms I’ve ever seen, but little else. His routes were suspect and so was his conditioning. Neither appears to have changed.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Feb 17, 2026 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Genes mean something

He looks a hell of a lot more like his brother every season.

by aap212 on Feb 18, 2026 12:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: great shape

I won’t complain about the loss of weight and getting in better shape, but that was never really the problem with him, it’s the approach at the plate that’s a concern. I don’t care how strong or quick you are, if you’re swinging at pitches 6 inches off the plate, you’re not going to perform

I’m encouraged that Delmon hit .300 / .320 / .500 after the all-star break in a little over 200 AB’s last year. That’s a positive sign, in my opinion. Not as positive as an increase in his plate discipline, but that’s about the slugging percentage I expected to see from him

-1 and only member of the Jed Lowrie fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Feb 16, 2026 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No breakout

Still no plate discipline, still unimpressive power, getting uglier in the field and on the bases. I still think his upside is a Jose Guillen career. People scoffed at me last year for comparing him to Guillen and Franceour, and the year before they scoffed at me for worrying that he showed no secondary skills at all. I’m going to stay the course. He was a great prospect. He’s not a very good ballplayer and will never be special.

by aap212 on Feb 16, 2026 6:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Power is a secondary skill

and he showed decent power.

by alskor on Feb 16, 2026 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

On the year he had what, a 140 ISO? He didn’t even have a great second half. Once the September callups arrived, he beat the hell out of the ball for three weeks, and still didn’t draw any walks.

by aap212 on Feb 16, 2026 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kind of guy who I wouldn't be surprised

If he went 25-25, or if he got under 200 at bats. Part of it is simply that he isn’t a hard worker, a la Marte

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Feb 16, 2026 7:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Who has the best career overall...?

Delmon Young
Lastings Milledge
Elijah Dukes
Cameron Maybin

by two fishsticks on Feb 17, 2026 1:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

At this point,

either Maybin or Young… I’d lean towards Maybin because he’s going to play regardless since the Fish don’t really have much else to put in the OF for a few year… I think Delmon could be a productive player, but it just doesn’t seem like he wants it…

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 17, 2026 1:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybin or Milledge

I think off field/disciplinary issues, injuries, and reputation will hinder Dukes enough, problem with skills will hinder Young enough.

I still believe in Milledge settling in as a solid every day corner outfielder on both sides of the ball, and Maybin, for all his flaws, has the best tools of the bunch, and some skill to go with them.

by aap212 on Feb 17, 2026 4:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs