Edwin Jackson

At one point last year

I think it became so overrated to say he was overrated that he became underrated. Good to see something positive written about a really quality pitcher, whom despite pitching worse than some numbers (especially early) said he was, he has a lot of value.

by cowboy4eva on Feb 14, 2026 6:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Actually

What is really overrated is the cliche of pitchers moving to the NL automatically have better stats.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 15, 2026 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

They do automatically face worse competition…

by cowboy4eva on Feb 16, 2026 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and, more importantly....

…..face 8 hitters instead of 9 (not saying the NL isn’t worse…..but that’s a smaller factor in terms of pitchers’ “improvement”).

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 16, 2026 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not Really

If you look at the leaderboards, only Adam Wainwright had more than 75 AB last year. The vast majority of the time pitchers only bat twice a game or less. Once the starter is lifted, then you are facing 9 hitters the rest of the game (99% of the time). I think the effect has been greatly exaggerated. It is not automatic like some like to think. Johan Santana and Barry Zito have really benefited from the move to the NL, right?

PS. Welcome back BJB.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 16, 2026 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not even going to bother....

…..with your terrible anecdotal examples. unless you think anyone is saying “it is a universal infallible rule that performance will improve across the spectrum — regardless of all other variables — when one goes from the AL to NL” (which is, in fact, stupid, but i don’t think anyone’s saying it), those don’t really demonstrative of any worthwhile point. much more dramatic examples come from last year, when pitchers like Smoltz, Padilla and Penny went from unpitchable in the AL to well-above average in the NL within the same season. (not to mention C.C. Sabathia the year before.)

more to the point, i wonder how you account for the differential in runs scored by AL teams compared to NL teams. if i remember correctly, you have a huge hangup conceding that the AL is better right now than the NL. on the other hand, it seems like an untenable position to claim the AL’s offense is THE SAME as the NL’s, while their pitching is worse, which accounts for the greater number of runs scored, while, simultaneously, the AL beats up on NL teams in interleague play.

now, some people (incorrectly in my opinion), attribute the AL’s success to the fact they carry a DH. but now you’re diminishing the value of this player at all. (despite the fact DHs WILL tend to be better than the best pinch hitter on NL teams — both because they will tend to sign in the AL because it gives them full-time jobs, and because the position can accommodate players who can’t field.)

and finally, you claim the runs-scored-per-team differential isn’t due to pitchers hitting……because individual pitchers only get 70-odd ABs? sure. but that’s 350+ ABs between the ROTATION per year. not to mention, not only is the FIRST pinch-hitter for an NL team most likely a worse hitter than an AL DH, but, furthermore, the SECOND time that spot in the batting order comes up, a new, even worse pinch hitter has to bat.

like i said, i realize you’ve been in denial about this for a long time, so i don’t expect you to accept anything now. but i am curious how you explain the difference, if not for either AL offenses being better OR the presence of only 8 true hitters in NL lineups.

p.s., I’m not back. Or fully, at least. As long as pedrophile is posting, I’ll stick around. Love his insight. Still hoping wily mo will put up a few gems eventually too. I need the help, since I can’t really spend as much time following baseball as I used to.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 17, 2026 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Once again,

excellent job.

www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects

by ravensfan3 on Feb 14, 2026 8:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1 These posts are very interesting and informative.

Could you do one of these on Hector Rondon or Daniel Hudson? I hear such diverging opinions on their respective ceilings that it would be nice to have your perspective.

by Alex Trebek on Feb 14, 2026 8:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

glad you're high on him

i am too. i realize the second half seemed like he was headed back to more of the same, but he seems like the real deal.

all the D’backs need to compete is pitching, so, as an NL West fan, i’ll be real curious how he does, and how Webb bounces back.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 15, 2026 12:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah

his second half was some regression.

But when will people realize his first half gets better and better and better. Hitters adjust to him. But he has shown constant or steady adjustment back.

btw - I wouldn’t even guess at Webb until seeing him pitch in spring training. Was his throwing and/or workouts limited in the offseason.

I think you know enough by now on how I think. If a pitcher is going to be ready for spring but couldn’t throw during the offseason then you have a disaster waiting to happen.

by pedrophile on Feb 15, 2026 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i'd be surprised if Webb....

…..were good for better than an ERA of 4.00. and wouldn’t be surprised if he were much worse. but that’d be enough to make a huge difference for the D’backs, seeing as they should have far and away the best offense in the NL West (imo).

anyway, i’m sure neither EJax or Webb are going to be side by side with Haren, but just posting decent numbers would go a long way for the team. i could easily see them making the playoffs — if not winning the west — this next year.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 15, 2026 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

D-bax offense is better than the Rockies?

Far and away?

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Feb 15, 2026 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rockies are the other contender....

….but it’s really impossible to compare the Rockies to anyone else, given their ballpark.

having said that, yes. i think the Rockies are the favorite in the division, but i think the Dbacks offense — especially if Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson remain healthy — is a step ahead. there are just more question marks in the rotation and bullpen. regardless, i think the two teams are my mild favorites to win the West and wild card.

(all this, incidentally, is coming from a die-hard Dodger fan.)

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 15, 2026 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how ugly will the Mannywood get?

When he’s on your team posting huge numbers with his big grin and goofy antics he is loved. But when his numbers slip then beating up old people no longer is Manny being Manny.

The 838 OPS and .459 slugging after the all-star break, and after the PED suspension, has to really hurt. If he is a force again the Dodgers will have one of the better offense in the league. But if that lousy D comes with an 838 OPS it will be a long season.

by pedrophile on Feb 15, 2026 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the Dodgers season.....

……has a few big question marks, with Manny obviously being the biggest.

i think his numbers in the second half almost understate how bad he looked. he looked……like a 40-year-old. the wasn’t close to being able to get around on fastballs, and was jammed by anything on the inner half of the plate. his hands dropped. he was LUCKY when his loopy swing managed to handle pitches enough to pop them foul down the first baseline.

personally, i have no idea what he will do next year. there’s an argument that this past year was just the result of having to sit 50 games midseason. and i think that there’s actually zero doubt this had a deleterious effect.

but i also think 40-year-olds don’t have enough (NATURAL) testosterone to sustain the muscle mass necessary to get around on major league pitching. that’s why Barry Bonds was such a joke, and why Manny just can’t go back to being 2008 Manny (unless he finds a better drug dealer).

as for the rest of the Dodgers offense, i think Kemp can continue to add power. but i’d be surprised if Ethier repeats at QUITE this last year’s level. Furcal, Loney and Martin all seem likely to improve mildly, but none is likely to be an outright plus this next year. and losing Orlando Hudson truly can’t be understated as devastating to the team (though as much for the defense as offense).

the Dodgers had a very good, but very precarious offense this past year. it relied on everyone on the team getting on base, 1 through 8. given what’s gone on with the team, i think some minor downgrades could lead to synergistically bad effects. but we’ll see. they could surprise me.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 15, 2026 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even with Jackson and Drew their lineup would not be anything close to the Rockies, let alone a step ahead.

The very bad man who traded my first son non-tendered my replacement son. F*ck you Brian Sabean. Leave my children alone.

by boonitez on Feb 15, 2026 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jackson drew parra/young as their 8 hitter… kelly johnson adam laroche upton reynold miguel montero

their lineup is dangerous 1-8

drew
johnson
upton
reynolds
montero
laroche
conor jackson
young/parra

that with their SP… could make a dangerous team…

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2026 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

don't feel like getting into a drawn-out debate...

….but really? i think you’re drinking a little too much Coors Koolaid, or else just stuck in last year’s results.

just going position by position:

C
Iannetta/Olivo v. Montero

The Rockies aren’t offensive slouches here, but Montero’s the best-hitting catcher in the NL this side of McCann. Advantage: D’backs.

1B
Helton v. LaRoche

Helton has 60 more points of OPS last season (only 7 points higher OPS+, which is park-adjusted). He’s also 35 and constantly injured. If they repeat last year, Rockies have a slight advantage here. But I think you have to put some weight in the fact that Helton has struggled with back injuries the past four years and is far from a certainty to repeat. Personally, I’d call it a push, but I don’t want people bitching at me over this issue, so I’d grudgingly give a slight advantage to the Rockies.

2B
Kelly Johnson v. Barmes/EYJ

Kelly Johnson was atypically terrible last year. Barmes and EYJ are nothing to write home about, although Barmes at least had some pop when he’s healthy (though note the .631 road OPS). This position is a whole lot of mediocrity, and I wouldn’t want to make any sort of prediction about who would be better this next year in a neutral park.

3B
Ian Stewart/Mora v. Reynolds

I like Ian Stewart. But Mark Reynolds is a beast. Absolute kill for the D’backs.

SS
Tulowitzki v. S. Drew

Sure, everyone will say this is an absolute kill for the Rockies. I just think that’s a little short-sighted. For instance, Drew’s subpar year last year was in the face of constant nagging injuries. The year previous, he hit .291 with 44 doubles, 11 triples and 21 homers. Second, you can’t exactly give Tulo bonus points for consistency compared to Drew, since he hit .263 with 24, 3 and 8 the year before (in Coors!).

Point is, I’ll give Tulo a decided edge here — hard not to when the most recent data has him outperforming Drew by that much — but I also think it’s a lot closer than most other people do.

LF
CJax/Parra v. CarloGon/Seth Smith/Spilborghs

I love CarloGon. I don’t think he’ll put up last year’s numbers over a full season in 2010 though. Seth Smith is a good hitter in limited at-bats. I’d give both the edge of CJax, especially coming off an injury. But no one’s good enough to make this position all that exciting.

CF
Fowler v. Young

Chris Young was just about the worst player in baseball last year. His upside is also WAY higher than Fowler’s. These two are ridiculously dissimilar, both in skillset and range of outcomes. Ultimately, I have no way of evaluating the two. It’s a personal preference. If either one is going to be a big offensive threat, though, it will certainly be CY.

RF
Hawpe v. Jupton

Hawpe is a really, really good hitter. Justin Upton is an MVP candidate. Advantage, D’backs.

Like I said, there are way more question marks in the D’backs lineup than the Rockies (unless you count the fact that NO ONE really knows if ANY of their hitters is good because of Coors). But the D’backs lineup certainly looks better on paper to me. If you see it another way, I can understand that.

I find this whole conversation funny, though, since I’ve taken a long hiatus from writing on this website. The last time I wrote much was 2007. Preseason of that year, there was a thread where everyone predicted the outcomes of each division. Popular sentiment seemed to be that the D’backs were about to break out (because they had a lot of prospects who CLEARLY weren’t ready to produce yet), whereas the Rockies were an also-ran. I predicted the dead opposite, only to receive a barrage of insults (my favorite being that i was “biased” as a Dodger fan toward the Rockies, against the D’backs, which I never understood). As it turned out, both made the playoffs that year, with the Rocks making the World Series. but the D’backs had a MINUS-20 run differential, while the Rockies plus-102 run differential was the best in the NL. what’s my point? i guess just that, if i’m wrong, it sure as hell isn’t bias. and maybe you should prepare to be surprised.

like i said, i think both teams make the playoffs this year (though the NL West and Wild Card both have a lot of contenders). and maybe the Rockies offense is ARGUABLY better than the D’backs, and i simply don’t want to evaluate them because it’s too difficult in that ballpark. but i also think you need to wake up to the D’backs this year.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 15, 2026 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

-Miguel Montero was the best hitting catcher in the NL aside from McCann last year in his first (almost) full season. It’s far from certain that he’ll repeat that performance.

-If by “constantly injured” you meant significantly injured once in 08’, then yes, Todd Helton is constantly injured. Either way, he’s better than Adam Laroche, who is pretty average. You could argue that age might become a factor, but that’s pretty much it.

-Troy Tulowitzki is better than Stephen Drew. By a lot. The excuse you used for Drew’s crappy 09’ stats can be applied to the 08’ stats you used against Tulo. He tore his quad that year and missed over a third of the season.

-Why couldn’t Gonzalez repeat last year’s numbers? He’s 24 and was a stud prospect in the minors. He definitely has the upside. Even if he regresses a little, his speed should still make him pretty valuable. I have trouble seeing Jackson as significantly better, especially since he just came off a major injury.

- Dexter Fowler will also be 24 soon and has a lot of room for improvement. He put up better numbers in his first season than Chris Young ever has. Chris Young is pretty bad. I don’t understand why you think he has higher offensive upside. He hits for power, but he’s also a horrible contact hitter. Every projection system has Fowler over Young.

I honestly don’t see the D’Backs as a playoff team next year. I’d have both the Dodgers and probably the Giants over them, although the Giants are pretty iffy. As you said, they have a boatload of question marks, both in the lineup and the rotation. But I still like the Rockies better. I think you might be over-exaggerating the effects of Coors.

The very bad man who traded my first son non-tendered my replacement son. F*ck you Brian Sabean. Leave my children alone.

by boonitez on Feb 15, 2026 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

responses

It’s far from certain that [Montero]’ll repeat that performance.

OK? i agree, in some sort of cosmic uncertain sense. but he had minor league success. and if you watched him much this year, he has a VERY solid approach. so you’re going to have to do a little more than that to differentiate him from everyone else (i.e., “we can’t predict ANYONE, because they’re all uncertain”).

-If by "constantly injured" you meant significantly injured once in 08’, then yes, Todd Helton is constantly injured.

I just googled “todd helton injuries,” and the first hit directs me to this quote:

“Helton, 34, has dealt with a back problem since 2002, something he has addressed through flexibility and strengthening exercises. But he had never dealt with leg issues related to his back, which creates the possibility he will require more than a 15-day absence.”

2008 was the only year he’s been outright bad. but he’s been hindered for a long time. so what, you’re saying, since he’s clearly able to hit through it (i.e., however much it’s sapped his power has already happened). in my experience, back injuries never go away, and flare up for hitters all the time. it makes him a significant uncertainty.

also, i’d encourage you to look at LaRoche’s performance before you call him “pretty average.” not saying he’s a superstar. but neither is Helton. both are good, not great first baseman. Helton’s better, but older and a ticking timebomb.

The excuse you used for Drew’s crappy 09’ stats can be applied to the 08’ stats you used against Tulo. He tore his quad that year and missed over a third of the season.

So aren’t you agreeing with me — that both players had atypical seasons because of injuries? My point was that there’s no reason to penalize either one abnormally for an outlier year.

(Tulo DOESN’T have an excuse for his terrible April in ‘08, but, in fairness, no matter how bad it was, it’s still just 100-some ABs, so I can look past it.)

Anyway, Tulo’s probably better. If I got any kind of decent odds on who produced more park-adjusted offensive value in 2010, though, I’d be happy to take a risk and say Drew could outperform Tulo. Drew’s more than a touch slept on.

Why couldn’t Gonzalez repeat last year’s numbers?

He could. Seems like more homerun power than he’s had since the California League, which hardly counts, which is why I’m a little dubious of those EXACT results. But he looks VERY legit, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he even IMPROVED on last year’s numbers. My guess, though, is that he experiences a slight dip in 2009 alone. Sort of a Jacoby Ellsbury/James Loney “now he hits for power too!” type midseason callup where I think everyone may be overzealous on his breakout. Having said that, I think he is both significantly better and has much more power than either of those two — at least long-term.

It’s far from certain that [Montero]’ll repeat that performance.

OK? i agree, in some sort of cosmic uncertain sense. but he had minor league success. and if you watched him much this year, he has a VERY solid approach. so you’re going to have to do a little more than that to differentiate him from everyone else (i.e., “we can’t predict ANYONE, because they’re all uncertain”).

-If by "constantly injured" you meant significantly injured once in 08’, then yes, Todd Helton is constantly injured.

I just googled “todd helton injuries,” and the first hit directs me to this quote:

“Helton, 34, has dealt with a back problem since 2002, something he has addressed through flexibility and strengthening exercises. But he had never dealt with leg issues related to his back, which creates the possibility he will require more than a 15-day absence.”

2008 was the only year he’s been outright bad. but he’s been hindered for a long time. so what, you’re saying, since he’s clearly able to hit through it (i.e., however much it’s sapped his power has already happened). in my experience, back injuries never go away, and flare up for hitters all the time. it makes him a significant uncertainty.

also, i’d encourage you to look at LaRoche’s performance before you call him “pretty average.” not saying he’s a superstar. but neither is Helton. both are good, not great first baseman. Helton’s better, but older and a ticking timebomb.

The excuse you used for Drew’s crappy 09’ stats can be applied to the 08’ stats you used against Tulo. He tore his quad that year and missed over a third of the season.

So aren’t you agreeing with me — that both players had atypical seasons because of injuries? My point was that there’s no reason to penalize either one abnormally for an outlier year.

(Tulo DOESN’T have an excuse for his terrible April in ‘08, but, in fairness, no matter how bad it was, it’s still just 100-some ABs, so I can look past it.)

Anyway, Tulo’s probably better. If I got any kind of decent odds on who produced more park-adjusted offensive value in 2010, though, I’d be happy to take a risk and say Drew could outperform Tulo. Drew’s more than a touch slept on.

He put up better numbers in his first season than Chris Young ever has.

I’ll take Chris Young’s rookie year 10 out of 10 times, personally. Why it is Chris Young’s gotten steadily worse each season is a little mysterious. Historically, I haven’t been a fan of his. But I’m not quite sure why he’s THIS bad.

As for projections being better for Fowler, that’s exactly what I’d expect: Fowler’s expected value HAS to be higher than Young’s, who hit like the Padres pitcher this last season. But 30-30 production as a 23-year-old with an excellent batting eye seems a lot better than what Fowler has to offer. Honestly, just not that impressed by what I’ve seen of Fowler. And a .266/.363/.406 line in Coors field just doesn’t impress. Fowler’s younger, but both are young and have room for improvement. I just see a much lower ceiling for Fowler at the major league level — and especially don’t see him making massive strides this next year alone.

I honestly don’t see the D’Backs as a playoff team next year. I’d have both the Dodgers and probably the Giants over them, although the Giants are pretty iffy.

I appreciate that you are willing to go out on the line and predict no movement in the standings from last season. I’m just trying to be a little more bold here. Personally, I think the Diamondbacks are very slept on right now — with the one question-mark being their pitching (well, TWO question-marks if you separate out the bullpen and rotation).

But hell — I’m not even being as bold as I could. If I thought the pitching were more resolved, I might come out and put them as favorites to win the division. As is, I’m very split on the Dodgers and D’backs to take the wild card (along with out-of-division teams). (Personally, though I think the Giants might remain “competitive,” I don’t see them as a serious contender, and might even expect some regression from last year’s record.)

The division is certainly open to a lot of good debate though — a lot of talent to go around (or at least “talent” by non-AL East standards).

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 15, 2026 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the D-backs a lot this year...

With Haren, E-Jax-Webb, they’ve got a very nice high end rotation. With Upton/Reynolds leading way, they’ve got a solid 1-8 as pointed out above.

I don’t think the Giants have improved enough to get to the playoffs. Arizona’s issue the last few years has been health. Losing your ace, top player, SS, LF, 1B, CL and other players for extended periods of time really hurt them. The best part is that they were still attempting to compete and had the opportunity to develop players through their injury ravaged season.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 16, 2026 1:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Scherzer was by far the better pitcher than Jackson

they’ve taken steps backwards, but E-Jax is still serviceable and if Upton continues improving then they can do something in a relatively weak division.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 16, 2026 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yea

a relativly weak divsion that had the wild card team last year and the 2nd place finisher to the wild card was also in the division….

yea what a weak division

by matthewmafa on Feb 16, 2026 8:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AL Central is a worse division, outside of that?

I guess you could make an argument for NL East, but I don’t think so.

AL West is stronger
AL Central is weaker
AL East is stronger
NL Central is probably on par
NL East is probably on par

I would put it as the 5th division, but I suppose, if you’re high on it, you could put it as high as 3

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 16, 2026 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Using the last 2 years

How is Scherzer the better pitcher? Please use statistics rather than throwing out a blind statement.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 16, 2026 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

3.71 career FIP to Jackson's 4.28 FIP last year

a 9+ K/9 rate with a 3.3 BB/9 rate for Scherzer compared to 6 K/9 rate with 3.3 BB/9 rate for Jackson

I don’t get it, there is no metric in which Scherzer isn’t better, what are you trying to prove?

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 16, 2026 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed on all counts

You really do have to wonder whether Webb will be more than just a name though. I could easily see him having an ERA above 5.00 in 140 IP this year.

Also, I really like the one-man EJax hate campaign by a certain poster presumably pissed off over the acquisition of Matt Joyce in this thread. Don’t worry, dude. I wasn’t thrilled about acquiring Danys Baez either.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 16, 2026 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't read any Edwin Jackson hate campaign in the comments here.

Rays fans legitimately question whether Jackson is developing into a superior pitcher. And there is certainly no bitterness among more aware Rays fans over the deal for Joyce. Quite the contrary, while there are certainly debates, the majority recognize that the Rays had to deal Jackson when they did, and many still consider Joyce a solid return.

I read a lot of Navi’s Navy stuff on another blog (I assume that is whom you are referring to), and his analysis is reasonable, not simply fan talk. One can reasonably disagree with his view, but should not characterize it as a hate campaign or as a reflection of him being pissed off about acquiring Joyce.

by bobr on Feb 16, 2026 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

using FIP

to explain why a 6.5 or so ERA pitcher was just as good for the Rays as a 3.6 ERA pitcher was for Detroit?

Does that sound reasonable talk? Especially since the talk was solely on what Edwin’s impact would have been for 2009.

by pedrophile on Feb 16, 2026 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are not responding to my comment.

Although I generally agree with Navi’s views, that is not my point here. Rather it is that you are characterizing his arguments as a “hate” campaign and are further suggesting that Rays’ fans are bitter over the acquisition of Joyce for him. It is particularly that second point that irritated me, because it indicates either ignorance or at least a very superficial understanding of the Rays’ options when they made the trade as well as of their current attitude towards the trade.

In addition, the notion that the deal was a mistake for the Rays because you think he would have thrust them into the playoff race more certainly than Sonnanstine or Kazmir did betrays both a misunderstanding of his anticipated role on the Rays had he remained and of faulty assumptions of what he would have contributed in TB.

There are many kinds of data that can be adduced that either indicate his improvement in Detroit was real or that it was ephemeral. No one piece of data is sufficient to assert anything with certainty, so the remarks on FIP are not an argument in itself that someone’s viewpoint is reasonable or not.

I understand why fans get upset when others rate their players low. What I do not understand is why fans are willing to make blanket statements about other team’s moves without first making a very thorough investigation into their reasoning at the time of the move and the many factors that influenced their decisions.

by bobr on Feb 16, 2026 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

first off

i’m the one who described it as a hate campaign.

second, i think you’re the one who needs to take off the blinders if you read what he writes and doesn’t think there’s more than a tinge of bias, agenda and bitterness in his outlook. it’s not that anything’s FACTUALLY incorrect. but you can campaign and distort truths plenty without saying anything that’s a lie.

underlyingly, his points are a decent PART of the picture. his outlook comes off as bitter and absurd, and i certainly don’t think it’s balanced.

i was just kidding on the Joyce thing. i have NO IDEA what you mean about “Rays fans current attitudes,” but i can tell you that everyone i talked to was baffled by the trade at the time, both from a talent perspective and from the needs the Rays had. if you feel otherwise, i’m glad. better to be happy with the trade than not. never will make sense to me though.

i like you repeatedly referring to “blanket statements” i (or others) have made regarding the trade (such as? it was BAD? Rays fans might potentially be UNHAPPY about it?), while all you’re willing to do is vaguely allude to “many factors that influenced the decision” (NEVER mentioning specifics) and “no one piece of data” being “sufficient to assert anything” (without going into what those might be) and “misunderstandings” and “faulty assumptions” without pointing your finger at what those are.

i’m sure you have something in mind. but you’re going to have to be a little more specific if you want to make a point instead of sounding like you’re just creating a cloud of defensiveness. especially if you’re going to condemn other people’s “blanket statements.”

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 16, 2026 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, look, he is a two pitch pitcher who throws a joke of a straight fastball and a slider that flashes plus plus but is still inconsistent.

Combine that with 110 starts at the major league level with his highest FIP in a season being 4.28 and his second highest FIP being 4.88, and I’m sorry if I don’t see a stellar pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. I liked him better as a pitcher in 2007 than I do now quite frankly, and I’d take Sonnanstine over him at this point in their careers.

I’ve never been a Jackson fan, and there are reasons that I’ve rehashed multiple times that people should temper their excitement on them. Sure, I’m a huge Sonnanstine guy and am down on Jackson, but to discount the facts I am stating becaues they disagree with your flawed notion isn’t what sites like this are for.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 16, 2026 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are correct

that I did not offer specifics. That is because I have read and written so much about that deal at the time that I am frankly bored with the whole thing and so simply wanted to identify my objections to your comments rather than once more examine those objections in depth. Apologies for that; although you can check Rays’ sites at the time to review the issues, I suppose this site is less likely to have engaged in that discussion in the same detail.

A couple of general points may help point in the direction of the reasoning. First, Jackson was about to get more expensive at the time while his history did not suggest he was making real progress or was better (or even as good as) pitchers already in the system. His minor league performances were spotty at best-actually rather bad mostly-and in the majors he continued to walk too many while striking out too few, with little evidence that trend was changing. Since he was out of options, he had to remain on the major league roster, so there was no opportunity to work on his skills in the minors.

Second, the Rays’ system was chock full of promising arms while rather barren of hitters. Joyce had demonstrated the kinds of skills the Rays liked and filled a real need in deepening the talent base where it was thin. As always, one can argue that the Rays scouted poorly or misread the data, but I think that case is far from closed after just one year in which many continue to see real value in Joyce and remain suspicious of Jackson.

The statement that the trade will never make sense to you is, in my view, a tipoff to the probability that your knowledge of the Rays’ needs and concerns are superficial. To make an analogy, when the news of the D-Backs trade for Jackson was broadcast, I think it fair to say that the majority of analysts criticized Arizona, some in harsh terms. I read few positive comments. Nonetheless, I thought it important to take Arizona’s perspective and by doing so, while I continued to agree that it was probably a big risk for them, could credit them with a defensible decision. In the case of Jackson/Joyce, I don’t think it takes much effort to come to a similar conclusion of the Rays’ choice, even to come to the conclusion they did a smart thing.

As for blinders, no such thing. I was privy to the extended conversation on this issue covering the full year after the deal and am familiar with Navi’s views. Bitterness, bias, agenda have nothing to do with it. It is entirely reasonable to disagree with him, of course, but not to read anything into those views beyond a well-considered analysis. It is possible that fans of Jackson or the D-Backs are the ones reading bias into his statements because of their own perspective.

by bobr on Feb 17, 2026 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for this bob as disagreements are fine but I do take offense to the notions that I'm overly biased

I try to remain unbiased, but clearly my focus is on the Rays and, like any fan, I have players I like and don’t like. I like to believe I like those players because they have desireable skillsets and are generally underrated yet likeable, but I won’t say I don’t try and find facts to support my opinions. This is why I support players like Gabe Gross, Andy Sonnanstine, and Dioner Navarro, and, to a lesser extent, someone like Matt Joyce.

I have opinion and players I favor, of course, so do you, and you are making it known through these scouting reports, but I don’t feel my analysis is any less well-reasoned than your opinions are. You value certain things more than me, thats fine, but the type of player I like to see is a bit different from you, as it will always be from person to person.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 17, 2026 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's fair

I appreciate you expanding on what you meant.

Just to clarify two things:

1) The trade that never made sense to me was the Joyce-EJax trade, not the Scherzer-EJax trade. The latter trade seems TOTALLY up-for-debate to me. Which is why Navi’s point was a reasonable one. I felt (and still feel) his presentation and feelings on the trade are not objective, even if those facts are part of an objective picture for why one MIGHT object to that trade.

As for the Joyce trade, I think the Rays were wrong at the time about (1) how much they needed EJax, (2) how much EJax was improving, (3) how much they needed Joyce, and (4) possibly most seriously, how good Joyce was.

Anyway, it’s not a huge deal. But it was clearly a bad trade. As for the support for Sonnanstine — I’m interested that Rays fans like him so much. I’ve always thought he was terrible, so this last year didn’t surprise me, but maybe he will improve.

2) I am nowhere even close to a D’backs fan, as I said above. I have no horses in this race, besides my belief in what I’ve seen.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 17, 2026 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The love from Sonnanstine comes not only from past statistics

which indicate he is pretty good, despite the bad scouting reports. He throws a lot of pitchers from various arm angles, and the crew over at Draysbay, or at least us Sonny apologists, have pretty much pinpointed it to the fact that he more than doubled the use of his cutter this past year and used it instead of the fastball. It was an average-at best pitch in 10-15% doses, but now when he is dialing it up to 87 35-40% of the time, it is clearly being overused and is clearly not this good of a pitch.

My own theory is that his command actually deteriorated as his curveball improved. His curveball was a much better pitch in terms of stuff this year, then it has ever come close to showing, but because it broke so much more this year and he still featured it prominently, he couldn’t live off his bread and butter finnesse. They just lay off the curve and wait for a cutter high, and they usually got it.

Sonny has always had a low LOB% in the majors, something USUALLY thought to not be really controllable by pitchers, as well as slightly unlucky BABIPs. Its probably to the point where we shouldn’t expect regression and that we should accept there is something as part of his game that causes this, but because we can’t explain it we’d rather block it out.

I just really think he has a way of decieving hitters when he is on, as he throws multiple pitches at multiple arm slots and speeds, and controls them all, and commands a few of them pretty well within the zone as well.

In 2008 Sonnanstine was the 7th unluckiest pitcher in regards to the defense playing poorly behind him while positively behind other players (Jackson in particular, who was 3rd luckiest in the majors). For what its worth, this was evident to me when I watched even before I found statcorner (the site that provided me with the outs - expected outs stat) or the merits of this statistical masure.

Beyond ALL of that, he went back to Durham this past year and pitched like his normal self. His stats were slightly better, but still eerily similar to the stats he put up in 2008 which came in at a 3.91 FIP.

He throws a lot of pitches, hasn’t had injury issues, and has flashed plus-plus-plus control and plus command of certain pitches. He isn’t nasty, but he is serviceable, and while Jackson, even with just slight improvement (which many think he can achieve) is the better pitcher to Sonnanstine, they are nowhere near as far away as people imply, and in terms of past results its impossible to argue Jackson > Sonnanstine.

I would do a long thing about Joyce > Jackson because I think that one is just as true as Scherzer > Jackson, but, oh well. On the bias issue, my biases are formed off the way people play, its not just that I’m “bitter” because the national media assumes we lost on the trade, its that Jackson hasn’t proven himself a pitcher worthy of the praise he gets. I hated him as a pitcher in Tampa and I still don’t like him now that he is gone. I preached Niemann/Talbot/Davis over Jackson going back to before the 2008 season, and his steps backward in 2008 (he was a much better pitcher in 2007 in my eyes) didn’t help me any.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 17, 2026 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

all fair points

there are issues you and i don’t see eye-to-eye on, like the value in Sonnanstine’s (or any control pitcher’s) minor league stats. but i at least see where you’re coming from, and don’t think we’re going to get any closer to agreement.

(also, i think it’s strange to talk about “past results” for Edwin Jackson, given his strange career trajectory.)

also, just one other point about a post you made above: the NL West is the fifth-strongest division in baseball? really? that seems pretty indefensible.

the AL East is obviously the strongest division. put that right up front.

but it’s IMPOSSIBLE to argue the NL West wasn’t the best division in the NL last year. they had the team with the best record in the league and best run differential in all of baseball (Dodgers), the wild card and wild card runner-up (Rockies and Giants). this next year, i would fully expect the D’backs to be competitive now that they’re healthy.

the NL Central belongs nowhere in the discussion. the NL East has the best team is upcoming year (Phillies), and the Marlins and Braves should both be fairly competitive again, as should a healthy Mets team — so MAYBE they’re on par with the NL West. but i also don’t think the AL West is significantly different than the NL West — the Angels seem massively overrated, and the rest of the teams in the division are mediocre. their only merit is NOT having a terrible team in the division, but that’s easy to do when their are only four teams. and you already concede the AL Central.

i’d probably group it

AL East
-——-
NL East/NL West/AL West
-——-
NL Central
-——-
AL Central

how you say you’d put it FIFTH is pretty indefensible, unless you didn’t pay attention to the division last year, which is totally understandable for an AL fan.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 18, 2026 3:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rather than just post to post

use evidence to back up your claim is what I believe pedrophile is saying.

It’s pretty simple, to have Haren as your 1, E-Jax as your 2, and Webb as your three (ace going to a 3 isn’t unfathomable, but at the same time I’ve pegged Webb to be treated as a #3 starter this year) you really can’t complain. On paper, it looks great. Throw out the injury for Webb, their rotation is the best in the West (I’m going to take flack for this, but I believe it’s true as SF is really 2 deep- not a fan of either Zito or Sanchez though Sanchez could definitely change that this year). However, since this is reality, I do believe Webb could perform at a #3 level as stated above and should progressively get better throughout the season.

No one is upset, but Jackson was statistically better than Scherzer as pointed out by pedrophile earlier using FIP. If you’re going to argue, then use data…

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 16, 2026 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is its a downgrade, a pretty severe one, from Max Scherzer.

I just showed you where. The FIPs aren’t close, the pitchers aren’t close, Scherzer is light years ahead of Jackson.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 16, 2026 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh, maybe its having seen him as a Rays fan, but I just can't see this happening.

His changeup isn’t a truly useable pitch at the major league level, and for someone who is supposed to have his stuff his low K rates are telling. Either his K rates or BB rates are going to improve, but I don’t see much room for his stuff to improve beyond just developing consistency. He is still young, but is relatively seasoned already, and I just don’t see much to support the fact that he will all of a sudden figure it out. His fastball, at the speed he is throwing it at, is pretty much completley straight (certainly far below average in regards to break) so it gets hit hard. It could be a good pitch if he had other offerings, but he doesn’t, and I doubt he ever will. The one encouraging thing I see is increased durability, most likely brought about that he is walking fewer batters and therefore working deeper into games. Can’t see him being more than a 4.00 FIP guy in a good year.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 15, 2026 2:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

assuming you're assuming NL,

and he throws about 200 innings, a 4.00 WHIP would be worth about 3 WAR. that would fit some people’s definition of a #2.

by larry on Feb 15, 2026 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

low K rates?

He had 161 k’s last year. That was good enough for 14th best in the AL. Pretty darn good. And he is definitely improving.

His fastball did not get hit hard. When you consider he was throwing only 2 pitches and his batting average against for the first 4 months was .208 .222 .208 .252 and the final two months were .292 .281 - It was very obvious he was tiring, location was off, crispness was off, ball to strike ratio off, first pitch strike way off.

I think you might just be going based on his time in TB. If Tampa never traded him they would have been in the playoffs last year IMO.

by pedrophile on Feb 15, 2026 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he had a 6.9 K/9. This is not a good K.9 rate.

He was not much better than other pitchers we had in the 5 spot. We would not have gained more than 1 win in value.

I think a 4.00 FIP is my percieved peak of him as well. Also, what you call tiring I call regression. He shouldn’t be tiring after 3 full seasons in the majors, and that, in and of itself, is an issue if he still hasn’t found the durability given his body, lack of injuries, and time in the majors. His velocity wasn’t dropping as he went on in the year, it was remarkably stagnant actually, so I don’t buy the tiring argument.

I’m always against two pitch pitchers, and at this point his fastball is not a major league average pitch and his joke of a curveball is, well, for the time being, a joke. Its not even a pitch that moves, as this is a more excuseable trait in sinkerballers who draw high GB rates.

He is 43rd in K/9 rate, and that was a significant improvement from the past. If your pessimistic you say that it should fall in between this season and pasts seasons, putting him around 55-65 in this area, and if you are optimistic you say he’ll improve to around 30-35, but in no way does this show a pitcher with great strikeout ability, which is worrying given the percieved quality of his stuff.

A pitcher with what I see as a plus slider, and not much else is not someone I expect, despite the velocity, body, and athleticism, to turn into a good, number 2 starter. Number 2 upside, potential for less, but, in my opinion, most likely will stick as a mid-low end #3 (4.2-4.3 FIPs).

The real pitcher we could have kept to help us would have been Jason Hammel, not Edwin Jackson.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 15, 2026 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not much better?

Didn’t you have Sonnanstine who was horrible? Kazmir wasn’t much better. And Price was called up before he was ready because the club really needed him.

As far as two pitch pitchers many of the top pitchers in baseball are that. I do agree it would help a lot to have a 3rd pitch that is even a get me over type that can be used at the right times.

Velocity is the worst measure for pitchers that are tiring. I’ve seen Fausto Carmona at the end of his breakout season and he was bringing gas. But he couldn’t locate a pitch. And I’ve seen Dustin McGowan throw 95 and then need TJ for an injury that happened two starts prior. I’ve watched Verlander at the end of his rookie year and he couldn’t locate a thing but was hitting 100. And he mentioned how he really need to improve his off-season conditioning.

Edwin had a huge bump last year. Ignore the innings. His pitch count went up almost 500. Innings is a poor measure.

BTW - what would you say about Haren? He still hasn’t found the durability. Look at how he tires each season.

by pedrophile on Feb 15, 2026 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sonnanstine was about 4.8 FIP, Kazmir was just as good, Price was at a 4.5, and Davis was at a 2.9

On Haren, while he isn’t the most durable, he hasn’t had injury issues and his full body of work over a season completley trumps, as in he is in another stratosphere, when compared to Jackson. He falls from a 2.80 - 2.90 to a 3.10 - 3.40, this is astronomically better than Jackson.

I actually like how you have given more scrutiny to almost all the pitchers you’ve analyzed, I just don’t see why Jackson deserves to be thrown a bone here.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 16, 2026 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haren

had a 4.95 and 4.33 ERA in August and September of last year.
had a 5.64 and 3.90 ERA in August and September of the year before
had a 4.15 and 4.82 ERA in August and September of the year before that
had a 4.13 and 5.82 ERA in August and September of the year before that

You have to go back to 2005 where he did well at the end of the year. I would call this enough of a pattern.

As far as the FIP for Sonnanstine and Kazmir that is cherrypicking stats IMO. We were discussing how much Jackson would help TB.

Sonnanstine 6.77 ERA
Kazmir 5.92 ERA
Price 4.42 ERA
Jackson 3.62 ERA

You seriously think he would only add 1 win? xFIP and those other stats are projective analysis. We are talking about what happened. And what happened was Jackson had a very good season and two pitchers for Tampa got lit up.

by pedrophile on Feb 16, 2026 8:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

FIP is results based, not predictive at all.

Yes, it doesn’t measure what actually occured, but run the same peripherals over and over, and you will end up with Sonny’s peripherals being 4.8, Kaz’s being 4.2, etc. etc.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 16, 2026 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

except

FIP totally ignores balls in play. Pitchers can influence how many popups they get, groundballs, etc.

FIP is basically saying K/BB ratio and HR’s.

Oh, and it totally ignores run clumping. Sorry, I’m not that big on it.

So guys like Sonnanstine that give up a ton of hits are considered good as long as the other peripherals are good. Hits do matter. A lot.

by pedrophile on Feb 16, 2026 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, IFFB rate doesn't correlate well year to year at all, the implication being it really isn't a true skill unless examined in large large sample sizes (there simply aren't enough balls that could be caught either way)

and this was actually part of my critique of Edwin Jackson early on, in that his FIP was sterling, but through the first 10 or so starts he was inducing over 20% IFFB which are outs over 99% of the time while he never showed that type of popup ability. That regressed as it was meant to and other stats followed. Clearly it wasn’t the only thing, but it was a small contribution to the greater mirage that was the first half of the year.

If you want to take batted ball type into effect then just look at tRA which makes the implication that pitchers can control the type of hit being given up, which is pretty much accurate. I love the methodology behind tRA, but its hard for me to put it into context because it isn’t scaled to be at least near ERA. While Sonny’s tRA isn’t as good as his FIP, he is fine in that regard as well.

In no way was this past season a good one for Sonny, but he wasn’t so incredibly hopeless that it was ridiculous for him to be on a major league mound. His performance this past year was equivalent to what Ejax did in 07 and 08, and Sonny actually performed well, consistently in AAA, showing that it wasn’t all a falling apart of his mediocre talent levels.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 17, 2026 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hits do matter but defense plays a huge role in determining what is a hit and what is an out.

tRA is basically an upgraded version of FIP that includes batted ball data. And as for the scaling issues Navi is having, Fangraphs takes care of that because they don’t have tRA, they have tERA.

Edwin Jackson’s tERA last year was 4.37, which is not bad at all, however all of his stats trended negatively as the season wore on and that data falls right in line with the rest of his career. Now maybe it was because he was tiring, but if that’s the case, he began tiring in July because that was far and away his worst month of the season. I think last year showed some legitimate progress. But to say after one half season of good pitching and one half season that looked pretty much like the rest of his career (which is not impressive at all) that he’s potentially a #2 is silly. He may become a #2, but there is a significantly better chance that he’s goes back to being the same below average pitcher he’s always been.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Feb 17, 2026 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So you don't think Scherzer's numbers will change in the AL?

Essentially I could argue this like the debate in the Tim Lincecum post. Scherzer is going to face much more difficult lineups throughout the year vs some of the softer NL West lineups. Also, he doesn’t have the softer 7-8-9 hitters to face either. Scherzer goes to the better ballpark in DET, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to be better than Jackson.

Over the last 2 years, Jackson has improved significantly. He’s a solid #2 option. Who cares about the K/9? The guy is pitching now versus trying to strike out everyone when he was rushed as a 19 year old. Jackson is going to be 27 in season (It’s fair to not that Jackson was born in 9/1983 while Scherzer was born in 7/1984). He’s starting to harness his pitches. Scherzer will also be 26 in season and doesn’t have the body of work that Jackson has had over the last two years. At this point, Jackson is the better of the two. We’re talking about this year.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 16, 2026 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just to add...

while I agree Edwin Jackson may be headed for a great year, and I appreciate the banter between pedrophile and Navi_Navy….

Don’t all pitchers tire at some point of the season? Even the most “durable” and “big guns”?

If you look at overall performances, EJackson has improved every year, one cannot deny that. (I’m not going to rehash all the numbers out there).

Scherzer he will have to prove that he’s a decent pick up, especially moving to a new league. Only time will tell who wins this trade, but I believe Jackson is a good pick up by the Dbacks. I was actually quite stunned that Jackson got traded again.

Matt Joyce, who knows, he might still turn into Luke Scott.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Feb 17, 2026 9:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Luke Scott is a good player

He is Luke Scott with better baserunning and defense right now, with potential to be even better if discipline continues improving. He is regrded pretty much all around as at worst a +5 defender, and he has average speed. Joyce might also hit a few more line drives which will benefit him. Again, Scott is a good player and he is that right now.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 17, 2026 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Edwin- my thoughts

- He has somewhat of a baffling fastball and is one of the foremost examples of why velocity isn’t everything. He probably averages in the 94-95 MPH range with it, but it’s very straight. His command of it was okay last year, which is a lot better than previous years. He threw a lot of strikes with it, and improved his command to the point where he was actually able to locate it pretty decently at times. If he leaves it up, he can get hammered. He occasionally takes a bit off of it, and gets slightly better movement.
- His slider has nasty break. Later in games, and later in the year, it seemed like he was a little prone to getting behind it, instead of staying on top of it. Control of it is key for him. When he is able to locate it, it is a very, very good pitch (plus, in my book), and the key to his effectiveness.
- I’d like to see him throw a lot more changeups personally, though it is far and away his most inconsistent pitch. I’ve seen him throw ones that are well below average, but I’ve also seen a couple that I’d classify as plus. The ones he flashed had good arm action and great fade. My guess is that he only shows marginal development with it, but if he can throw it consistently, he’ll be a much better pitcher for it. As of right now, he’s more or less a 2-pitch pitcher. His slider is good enough to work against lefties, but mastering the change would make a world of difference.

Overall, I’d be excited to have Jackson in a rotation as a number 3. I still see potential for an ace, though I don’t see a great likelihood of him reaching that ceiling. I trust him enough to throw strikes now, but he’ll still get hammered when he leaves his fastball up in the zone. The slider is definitely his best pitch, though I’d like to see more changeups to keep hitters (especially LHs) off balance. If he ever masters the change, he could surprise a lot of people. As is, he’s a work in progress that has shown a lot of improvement over the years, even if he’s achieved nowhere near the hype.

Regarding Jackson versus Scherzer- I believe Scherzer has harnessed his stuff a lot better than Jackson, because he has a much better fastball. That said, I think his arm will explode on him with his past injury history and high-effort mechanics (cliches, but wutevs) being the culprits.

Regarding Jackson and Joyce, there were legitimate reasons to trade Jackson, the foremost being that he probably wouldn’t have developed the same if he stayed in Tampa. That said, I’d much rather have the 25/26 year old pitcher with potential than the slightly younger platoon or 4th OFer. There are plenty of guys that profile like Joyce in the majors and minors, but not as many pitchers that could do what Edwin can. Edwin came with more risk of failure at the time of the trade, but he has become much more valuable than anyone could have really expected Joyce to become.

by anjichpa on Feb 17, 2026 10:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think your point about Jackson/Joyce is legitimate

if taken in a vacuum, but you have to consider it in the context of the Rays situation. That requires one look at their talent base, their budget constraints and their ability to develop the talent of different players, among other issues.

For example, like Jackson, Joyce is a risk, and almost certainly has a lower ceiling, but Price, Davis and Hellickson might have just as high a ceiling with perhaps less risk in some cases, and will be considerably cheaper for a while. Meanwhile, Joyce may become an adequate major league hitter in RF and is probably already a solid defender but might max out as a platoon player or reserve. In any case, at the time there was nobody in the Rays system with a similar usefulness. And he is under control and inexpensive for a while as well. So they traded from a position of strength, amplified because it appeared (and may yet be true) that while Sonnanstine has nowhere near the ceiling of Jackson, he seemed to have the same chance of being a solid back of the rotation starter in 2009. But trading Sonnanstine would likely not have brought back as much talent as Joyce represented (due to ceiling of course), so the logical conclusion was to deal Jackson.

by bobr on Feb 17, 2026 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Jackson certainly has the higher ceiling,

but the question of whether he’s more valuable to the team is certainly up for debate. You have to consider money and surrounding talent into the equation. The Rays have a stable full of you pitching, under complete team control and none particularly close to arbitration either. So Edwin, who is reaching arbitration is going to make nearly 16 million dollars during those years gets traded.

So the question becomes was Joyce enough? Looking at the trade at the time, Joyce was coming off a season where he produce 1.6 WAR in 85 games for the Tigers, albeit almost exclusively against righties (Jackson in 2008 produced only 1.4 WAR for the record). It’s also important to note that he has yet to played a full year in the big leagues and will be under the Rays control until 2015, where as Jackson would be under team control till 2011. So the Rays will get 6 full years out of Joyce, 3 at the league minimum. Even if he turns out to be just a platoon OF, the Rays have a cheap, above-average player and they have shown very willing to platoon a player getting maximum value out of him.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Feb 17, 2026 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Value to team

I didn’t mean to diminish the role context of Jackson’s situation while with the Rays, so I apologize if it came across that way. I agree, that from the Rays perspective, it made a lot of sense to trade him at the time. My statement about Jackson and Joyce was more about their values in a vacuum, than about Jackson’s fit with a team that was under budgetary constraints with a loaded system of young pitchers.

The question isn’t about whether or not Tampa got enough for Jackson when they acquired Joyce, it’s whether they maximized their value in their decision. In my opinion, there were certainly teams that Jackson would be more valuable to than Joyce is to the Rays. If no team was able to offer a better deal for Jackson than Joyce, I believe it is reflective of a market inefficiency in how Jackson was valued prior to the trade.

To make an analogy, I’m not going to sell my Ford at a discount, simply because I own a car that is more valuable to me (ie the same car, but is cheaper to keep and maintain). In my opinion, they sold Jackson for less than they should have gotten. Obviously, we’re dealing in hypotheticals and hindsight, because we can’t say what the Rays’ maximum return might have been, but I feel they should have gotten more, or else held onto Jackson.

And one final note- I don’t think it’s fair to use Jackson’s current contract as a benchmark for how much it would have cost the Rays to keep him if you’re going to argue that they made the decision from the standpoint of Jackson’s 2008 numbers. If he had repeated those numbers in 2009 his arbitration numbers/contract would be less than what he signed after his actual 2009 performance.

by anjichpa on Feb 17, 2026 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

On retrospect..

you’re right anjichpa, dollar accounts for the Jackson-Joyce trade.

But, Joyce got hurt in 2009, didn’t he? So his value might be askewed a bit.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Feb 17, 2026 1:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Joyce Injury

I believe you are correct that Joyce was injured (not sure, and too lazy to check). It’s possible that I’m underrating him as well. I just don’t see a whole lot of upside over a platoon guy/4th OFer. Since I view him as replaceable, his value (in my opinion) lies almost solely in how cheap he is to keep.

by anjichpa on Feb 17, 2026 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To me it looks like he is improving even as he gets older, and he is a better defender than he seems to be given credit for

.270/.345/.455 with +5 to +10 defense in a corner is very valuable. His downside is as a platoon player if he takes just one step backward against lefties. His real world projection is Luke Scott and a perfect world projection is Scott Rolen in the outfield (-10 positional and probably about 10 runs worse defensively, which still puts Joyce between +5 and +10 in a corner).

Joyce still had 530 PA and I don’t recall him being injured at all. He has been healthy for all I know.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 17, 2026 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Out for most of spring training with a calf injury.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Feb 17, 2026 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes, good call

a friend sitting next to me while I typed it reminded me, but alas, its hard to correct mistakes in class.

Regardless, he hasn’t been injury prone and the original point of it not effect his value (unless you think it lingered and it cut into his power production or fielding ability) still stands. In fact, his improved baserunning is a sign to me that it didn’t effect his performance.

by Navi's_Navy on Feb 17, 2026 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs