is dependent on the development of his curve. The fastball has the wicked movement and he commands it pretty well, and the change is good enough. He’s had a few games where the curve was working, but he’s had more where he just couldn’t throw it because it’d either be in the dirt or hit for a home run.

The last game he pitched, against the Indians, he seemed to use it a bit more, and he threw it a little harder, and with a lot more success. And supposedly Verlander is helping him out with it, so hopefully that takes.

My gut feeling on the kid (and this is why I didn’t want him dealt for Halladay) is that he’s far enough past the 20-year-old-deer-in-headlights-in-big-leagues point to where he’s ready to make the adjustments he needs to, and by this time next year he should be a beast.

I predict that he goes the John Garland route— solid but unexciting innings eater.

His ceiling if he don’t pick up the K’s is Derek Lowe

Isn’t that a bit of an understatement? He has the lowest rate in the AL, and by a decent margin I might add, at 56.5% (source: Fangraphs). Halladay is 3rd at 51.6%.

I have a difficult time comparing any pitcher to Halladay, but if my two choices are between him and Garland, I’m going with Roy. I think John does a great job putting his age in context.

There are 2 arguments the Porcello was rushed and that he wasn’t rushed. I don’t think Porcello was rushed becasue they are letting him develop against ML hitters which is fine. He has been holding his own with basically a two-seam fastball and curverball thats on and off. Porcello will improve on his curveball and his changeup. Rick can also throw 96 (straight fastball) when he really needs to. I think Porcello will be a superstar by 2011. No one can ever be Roy Halladay but Porcello could be very close or better than Halladay.

I’m also a metro-Detroit resident, so I’ve been fortunate enough to see most of Porcello’s starts. The big thing that stands out to me is his composure — there have been very few instances in which he has looked like a 20-year-old. Even when he lost it a bit on national TV the other day against the White Sox, he managed to bounce back and have a decent start.

It will be hard for Porcello to ever become as efficient as Halladay, because Halladay has that devastating cutter, whereas Porcello’s slider is his worst pitch. However, I think Porcello can eventually turn himself into a Brandon Webb-like ace. He won’t get the ridiculous groundball numbers that Webb has because he doesn’t throw a true sinker, but their repertoire is otherwise very similar, and they both suffered from ugly HR/FB% in the early portions of their career. (Webb was between 15-18% in his first 3 years, Porcello leads the Majors at 17.9%).

His 2-seamer is already a plus pitch. He still needs to learn how to swing it back to the inside corner against lefties, but he commands it very well and it has generally been effective. His changeup is also a plus pitch, though it has been pretty inconsistent, which I think is understandable. But his curve, as The Fume mentioned, has been a problem for him. He occasionally flashes a hard breaker that dies at the bottom of the zone, but he generally throws a stalactite curve that gets crushed. It’s to the point that the Tigers moved him back to the slider, which isn’t as good of a pitch, but he commands it better.

If he gets a handle on his change and curve I have no doubt he will eventually post a 7-8 K/9 ratio. The question is, with him already in the Majors and playing a key role in a pennant chase, when will he have the time to refine those pitches?

And one last thing…we all discuss how he was rushed to the Bigs, but I’m not sure if people understand just how rushed he was. I did some research (eyeballs only, so I may have missed someone), and found that in the past three decades, only seven high-school pitchers have thrown fewer than 200 innings before making their major league debut: Josh Beckett (199.1 IP), Brian Bohanon (188 IP), Bret Saberhagen (187 IP), Zach Greinke (180 IP), Todd Van Poppel (170 IP), Jeremy Bonderman (156 IP), and Rick Porcello (125 IP). What’s more, since 1979, only three high-school starters have jumped to the majors without ever throwing a pitch above A-ball. Dwight Gooden did it in 1984, Bonderman made the leap in 2003, and Rick Porcello was the the third.

Under the circumstances, I think his performance has been remarkable.

..But tonight (8/18) Tigers fans got a real look at what Porcello can become. He had his best velocity of the year (hit 97 on the gun), his slider was very sharp, and his change was falling off the table. Through five innings he only surrendered one hit, struck out 7 batters, and had a 7/1 GO/AO ratio. He tired a bit in the 6th and hung an 0-2 changeup that Josh Wilson (Josh Wilson!?) deposited over the fence, but Porcello showed all the signs of future dominance….including the strikeout potential.