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Draft Preview - Washington Nationals

Hey guys, I'm starting up my team-by-team draft previews at my blog, and I started with the team that picks #1 overall in the Washington Nationals. Their scouting director, Kris Kline, is in his first year, so I picked out players from his region as West Coast crosschecker with Arizona and Washington, then focused on 2009's draft with Washington, when he was their national crosschecker.

Here's an excerpt from the writeup, which features small writeups on 23 players involved with Kline's work:

Kris Kline’s experience as a scout goes back two decades, and there aren’t many people who can claim that he isn’t qualified to be a scouting director. The interesting dynamic in Washington is that Kline is essentially part of a drafting team that starts with Mike Rizzo at the GM level. Rizzo was Kline’s boss in his years with Arizona, when Rizzo ran Arizona’s drafts as their scouting director. Kline followed Rizzo to Washington for the 2007 draft, when Rizzo became the head of baseball ops under Jim Bowden. Rizzo’s ascension to general manager ensures Kline’s job security, at least for a few years. It also means that drafting will be done in a team environment, especially considering the arrival of Roy Clark from Atlanta, another previous scouting director. Clark took over the scouting department in Atlanta from the legendary Paul Snyder, and he enters Washington as Vice President of Player Personnel, essentially Rizzo’s right-hand man for scouting. This triumvirate will mean excellent scouting and use of scouting resources this season, and despite Kline’s lack of experience at the scouting director level, I don’t expect a weak draft, even going beyond whoever they selected at number one overall. This Washington front office is set up to be very successful for the coming years if they use the combined scouting knowledge they have in the front office.

Direct link here.

If you guys are getting tired of me posting here, just let me know.

What do you think? What will the Nationals do?

Poll
Will the Nationals select Bryce Harper with the first pick of the 2010 draft?

  95 votes | Results

0 recs  |  Comment 30 comments  |  Add comment

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Far from tired of you posting here

really like your posts.
I voted that they will, but I don’t know if I think that will be the ultimate fate of the pick. Right now I don’t see Ranaudo passing him, but that is definitely possible.

by sjkqw on Feb 2, 2026 7:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

stick around

i always like reading about the draft

by ScottAZ on Feb 2, 2026 8:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dude...

your the only one on here that has any kind of good insight on the draft. I want you to post more often.

by joegonzo on Feb 2, 2026 8:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Voted no...

on Harper. The scouting reports have tempered a little bit to the point where he’s in the discussion for best available talent but no longer the slam dunk #1 guy. The hype, however, hasn’t died down correspondingly. If Harper’s demanding millions more than other available talent, I think the nationals will (and should) pass.

by slamcactus on Feb 2, 2026 8:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Who would you pick over him?

Considering the signability question you bring up.

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by Andy Seiler on Feb 2, 2026 8:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd pick the field over him...

I’m not ready to anoint him the runaway #1 guy 5 months from now is all I’m saying. He’s a very good prospect, but he’s not in a class all his own.

by slamcactus on Feb 2, 2026 8:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I somewhat agree.

I think the tools are in a different class, but not the whole package. He’s still only going to be 17 on draft day, and it’s so hard to project if he’ll be able to reach his ceiling at that age.

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by Andy Seiler on Feb 2, 2026 8:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He'll also..

.be really tough to get a good read on. The advantage of staying in high school your senior year is that scouts have developed a really good idea of how to evaluate players who get exposure through the showcase circuit.

Harper could stumble a bit in JuCo, and there’s very little precedent to figure out what that means, because you don’t see many people who are still high school age playing against that level of competition.

So yeah, there isn’t any one player who I’d definitely say “this guy will cost $2 million less than Harper and at that price difference is definitely a better pick,” but I’m not confident saying that one won’t emerge by June. I will say, though, that Harper has a real leg up this year because of the lack of impact bats at the top of the draft boards. This is looking to be the weakest crop of college hitters in quite some time, and Christian Colon is a pretty uninspiring choice for top college bat. To be fair, though, the same was said about Evan Longoria in 2006.

by slamcactus on Feb 2, 2026 8:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, there's definitely a weak college hitting class.

I don’t think anyone argues against that fact. I think both Harper, LeVon Washington, and Zack Cox all stand to gain from that.

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by Andy Seiler on Feb 2, 2026 8:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Harper definitely benefits from this class

One of the pitchers could overtake him, but I think he’ll be the top position player on the board. Washington will have a hard time passing him up unless he absolutely tanks in JuCo ball.

He wouldn’t be my #1 if he was in the 2011 draft class.

by jar75 on Feb 2, 2026 9:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hey andy

always enjoy your insights. how do you feel about eury perez ?( i think thats his name). the CF prospect for the nats

by giantdonkey on Feb 2, 2026 8:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't know enough about him.

John would be better able to answer this, as Perez wasn’t a draft pick, but an international signee.

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by Andy Seiler on Feb 2, 2026 8:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He goes #1

kid is a generational talent, obviously the more he is under the microscope the more ppl will point to flaws. Still he has massive power for a 17yr old and a cannon for an arm, which will play anywhere.

Hit his first moonshot as JUCO over the weekend, as a kid 2yrs younger than most in college.

by MightyMoose on Feb 2, 2026 8:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think...

we’re playing a bit loose with the term “generational talent.” Robert Stock fell off in recent years, but he got similar press to Harper a few years back as a 17-year-old skipping senior year and heading off to play against more advanced competition. He was BA’s high school player of the year at the age of 15. Matt Wieters already emerged as the best catching prospect in recent memory, and if Joe Mauer stays healthy consistently he’s got an inside track on the title of greatest catcher in baseball history.

Harper’s got a lot to do before he gets anointed a generational talent. For guys who play his position it’s been a pretty damned good generation.

by slamcactus on Feb 2, 2026 8:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

fair

but how many hit the longest homerun ever recorded at Tropicana Field as a 16-17yr old. Lots can happen, of course, but there are a number of scouts who said that this kid really has all the tools, physique, etc. to be an impact player.

by MightyMoose on Feb 2, 2026 8:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well..

major league BP home runs aren’t really recorded, so I’m not sure that counts. Daniel Fields hit a batting practice home run at Comerica as a 12-year-old, and nobody talks about him as a generational talent.

by slamcactus on Feb 2, 2026 9:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I defer to scouts

their knowledge far outweighs either of ours, unless you are a paid scout, then I’d defer to you.

by MightyMoose on Feb 2, 2026 9:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"scouts"

in the abstract don’t have an opinion. Individual scouts do. You can’t pull scouting consensus out of some mythical ether and cite it as gospel truth.

Harper as generational talent is far from consensus. He’s a consensus top talent in the upcoming draft but two very well-respected analysts with contacts in the college scouting industry have indicated he’s not necessarily the top collegiate prospect in the country. Bryan Smith said he’d rather have Rendon just yesterday, and Aaron Fitt - BA’s college basebal guy - said he’s reserving judgment on Rendon v. Harper in a chat last week.

Guess who both of these guys talk to: that’s right, scouts!

by slamcactus on Feb 2, 2026 9:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Comparing Rendon and Harper is unfair.

Rendon is 28 months older than Harper and has a year of college ball under his belt, plus went through a regular high school schedule. He was never under the microscope that Harper is. If you were going to say who will be better in June 2011, that’s one comparison, but you can’t talk about who is better now, because it’s irrelevant.

Harper’s ceiling is higher than Rendon’s, and that really can’t be argued against. Rendon only looks better because he hasn’t had his flaws dissected yet. Even then, he won’t have his flaws dissected like Harper’s had.

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by Andy Seiler on Feb 2, 2026 11:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Both guys...

said Harper’s not necessarily the better pro prospect. I think you can give each of them the benefit of the doubt on having considered their relative differences in age. The question wasn’t “who is better now?”

The fact that two guys who talk to a lot of scouts question if Harper’s even the best pro prospect in the college ranks doesn’t mean Harper’s not a great prospect. He is. It does, however, cut into the characterization of Harper as a “generational” talent. If it’s even arguable whether or not he’s the best pro prospect in the collegiate ranks right now, he’s not a generational talent.

by slamcactus on Feb 3, 2026 2:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Question on Harper

Just how well thought of are his tools? If he were an International FA right now, what sort of signing bonus would he command?

by Conjunction on Feb 2, 2026 9:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He'd get plenty of money.

His power and arm tools are both 80s. The rest of his tools are also above-average to plus. He’d get Chapman money.

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by Andy Seiler on Feb 2, 2026 9:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's quite an endorsement

For a 17 year old.
How does he compare as a prospect to, say… Justin Upton?

by Conjunction on Feb 2, 2026 9:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Upton was more of a sure thing.

And Upton would be getting this much hype if he were a draft prospect now. Public interest in the draft has exploded since then. However, I’d say Harper has as much upside as Upton did, though Upton wasn’t playing in JuCo ball at 17. He stuck through 4 years of high school and still ended up going number one overall.

If Harper does tear the cover off the ball for the rest of this season, I think I’d rate him as an A-, which is about where I would have rated Upton coming out of high school.

Both are elite talents for tools, but Upton’s refinement made him stand out when compared to pretty much every other prep bat in the past decade.

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by Andy Seiler on Feb 2, 2026 9:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

true

the draft has exploded recently, and Strasburg took draft interest to another universe last year. The draft on TV and the growth of the internet are the two biggest factors IMO.

That said, as a 15+ year subscriber to Baseball America, Upton was the most hyped high schooler ever with the exception of now Harper. Upton was getting hype starting at age 14 and appeared on two BA covers while still in high school.

As far as who is better, I would take Upton. Upton’s array of tools as well as polish can only be matched by Arod at the same age. I remember watching Upton’s 1st spring training game when he was barely 18 and he looked like a grown man out there. At 18 he was more physically dominant and imposing than 10 year vets. harper has the same grown man’s body

by ScottAZ on Feb 2, 2026 11:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

They go with Harper.

I just can’t see how a team that has a minor league system nearly absent of a position player that projects for more than mediocrity at the major league level, can afford to pass on this type of hitter.

by CoolCat23 on Feb 2, 2026 10:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I just wanted to tell you that your posts are more than welcome. I’m a follower of your site and think you do a great job. Can’t wait to see what you have to say about the Indians draft outlook for this year.

by JP_Frost on Feb 3, 2026 8:35 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Anthony Ranaudo

I think Harper stays in school another year and is the #2 pick in the 2011 draft behind Garritt Cole.

Andy, what is your scouting view on the 6’7" lefty out of LSU? Many feel he has the best pro ceiling out of this year’s college pitchers.

How would you compare him with a couple of recent #1 college arms?

Brian Matusz?

David Price?

Or 2011’s projected #1 arm Garritt Cole?

p.s. Andy, your draft analysis is awesome, keep ’em coming.

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Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill

by Wilbur Wood on Feb 3, 2026 4:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He's not as elite as Gerrit Cole.

Cole has #1 upside, while Ranaudo is probably more of a solid #2 ceiling. However, with some work on his command, he could be a #1, too. Pat Hickey gave a Roy Halladay comp for Ranaudo, and that’s a possibility, though Halladay is a best-case scenario.

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by Andy Seiler on Feb 3, 2026 4:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Keep posting

it’s good to have draft talk mixed in with so much top 100 stuff these days.

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Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.

by t ball on Feb 3, 2026 11:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs


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