Houston Astros Organization Discussion

by John Sickels on Dec 26, 2025 7:00 PM EST

I am now working on the Boston Red Sox. The next team on the list is the Houston Astros, to be followed by the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Use this thread to discuss the Houston system. How much has it improved over the last year, and what sleepers do you like?

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Obviously high on Lyles. Everyone knocks his lack of fastball and I understand. I hope, and it is entirely possible he gets the 2-4 mph that would put him in the top handful of prospects. If he doesn’t play for the Astros until 2013 he will still only be 22.

The next high upside guy may be Ovando. I have seen a few swings and a few throws to be excited about. I will feel better when he starts to play baseball. At least he was expensive.

JD Martinez looks like a legit hitter. Folty is very projectble. I have a good vibe on Velasquez.

The high upside OFers are DDjr, Austin and Wates. I hope one hits enough to get their speed and glove to the OF. There are a few promising catchers in the lower levels that hit a ton but are old for league and suspect defense.

I can’t see many starters that have 1 or 2 rotation ability. The bulpen arms look pretty good but aren’t above C+ level.

Mier is still worth monitoring but I haven’t supported the 1st round drafts in several years. Off the top of my head I can’t remember the last one I agreed with.

That leads to the best news for the Astros farm system. Uncle Drayton is getting out of the baseball business. That is something I am looking forward to more than any prospect, outside of Lyles.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Dec 26, 2025 7:43 PM EST reply actions

lyles, martinez

I seem to recall some buzz that the Astros thought that there was a mechanical tweak or two that could give him frontline starter potential. I’d love to know what it was. From seeing him, he appears to have a somewhat inconsistent stride point that might be costing him a bit of oomph on some of his pitches.

Scouting the Sally had a good report on Martinez. I agree that he is a legit hitter for average, but the rest of the tools aren’t so good. Hopefully he takes the offseason to develop his power stroke, which would make him somebody to really talk about either at LF or 1B.

by mrkupe on Dec 26, 2025 9:02 PM EST up reply actions

Prospect Retro?

Hey John -
I’d like to request a Prospect Retro (sort of…) on Bud Norris for when you wrap up with researching/posting for your 2011 book. Granted last year was his first full year in the bigs, so he’s not such a “retro” prospect, but he seemed to make corrections Post-All Star Break that don’t show up on his cumulative 2010 stat pages due to his horrendous 1st Half. Would like to hear your thoughts when the time comes around - whether the adjustments were for real and if his progession is what you throught it would be.
Thanks.

by Ramakis34 on Dec 26, 2025 9:03 PM EST reply actions

Pitching & Middle Infield are much stronger than in past years.

Most of the list will consist of players added in the last two years.

Folty, Valasquez, Alaniz all showed promise this year.

Altuve has to be considered a prospect despite his size. He leads a solid group of middle infielders - Cartwright, Villar, & Mier. And Deshields will be joining them this year as he moves to 2nd.

Corner infielders are the weakness of the system.

Sleepers - Carlos Quevado - look at his walk ratio in Tri Cities last year., J. DeLeon - converted shortstop who closed in Tri Cities.

by AppyAstros on Dec 26, 2025 10:00 PM EST reply actions

agreed

It’s still a crappy system, one of the worst in the game . . .but at least this year, you can at least see the possibility of the system seeing true upwards movement. That hasn’t been the case with the Astros for a long time.

by mrkupe on Dec 26, 2025 10:47 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

I disagree with all aspects of the teams’ draft philosophy. Drayton doesn’t believe is paying over slot and so the first 2 rounds are normally huge overdrafts and they are hoping they find a diamond. The team also keeps drafting good athletes that are marginally skilled baseball players. ie,There are very few guys that have plate discipline. I have yet to figure out the pitching draft theory.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Dec 26, 2025 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

Really?

Most teams do stick to slot in the first round, are their picks huge overdrafts? Or is it because they don’t consult online mock drafts before making their selections? What’s hard to figure out about their theory with pitchers? Heck has said more than once that he likes tall, athletic, projectable pitchers. Lyles, Seaton, Bushue, Folty, Velasquez…

by astrosfan76 on Dec 27, 2025 11:09 PM EST up reply actions

yes

Yes they are overdrafts. I don’t know if the Astros consult online mocks but if they did the system would be better. I didn’t know Heck laid all that out for us, tall, athletic, projectable.. gotcha.

I have some questions for you.

Do you think the Astros draft the best available players, in their opinion, the first 2 rounds?
Do you think anyone has ever said they like short, unathletic, unprojectable pitchers before?

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Dec 28, 2025 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

So...

Every team whose picks don’t gel with BA’s is run by cheap morons? Here’s a question Heck answered in a chat in ’09 (he also answers your question about plate discipline in the chat):

Is it rewarding when you have guys succeed that others think are reaches, like Castro and Lyles, and going back to your Milwaukee days, guys like Fielder and LaPorta?

Bobby Heck:
It will be more rewarding when Castro and Lyles are here in Houston having the successes they’ve had here in a short window. We try to stay true to our philosophy and not be reactive to the public or media’s perception of the draft.

They find guys that they like and take them. Most of the guys taken around their selections sign for slot, so it’s not about being cheap. Aaron Hicks, Brett Lawrie, Josh Sale, and Chris Sale are all guys that were linked to the club leading up to their respective drafts. Would your opinion of the club’s drafts be different if they had signed some combination of them, even though they signed for slot? Callis even made a comment after the ‘10 draft about liking the Astros’ picks.

From another chat:

It seems that there was a slight more emphasis placed on taller pitchers than the previous regime had in the 2008 draft. Is this an accurate statment in your opinion, and does height and projectability have a more significant weight on how a player is evaluated versus polish and his “now” stuff?

Bobby Heck:
Talent rules the day, but size is incorporated into our evaluation process. My personal feeling is when two players are staring at you of equal ability, if you’re going to miss, miss with big.

He’s talked about the other qualities elsewhere, but that gives you an idea.

Do I always agree with their picks? No, I do not. But, they also have access to a lot more information than I do. I don’t think it’s about being cheap or being incompetent; regardless of the role you credit Wade with in building Philly’s team, Heck’s track record in Milwaukee speaks for itself. Basically, it’s about having an opinion and being willing to stand up for your belief in players.

by astrosfan76 on Dec 28, 2025 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Austin Wates

I think Wates is the hitter from this system that really breaks out this year. No evidence, just a gut feeling from following the farm. Ben Heath might also surprise people, and it will be curious to see where he starts this year.

"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"

by DrewRusse on Dec 27, 2025 3:05 AM EST reply actions

Lyles and ???

Wow … IMO, this is a very depleted system. (Not a stretch to say).

Jordan Lyles is the gem of the system … Ran through multiple levels at 19 yrs old. Plus stuff with a moving low 90’s FB. If not rushed a solid #2 SP which are very valuable in MLB. He’s very under the radar and could (although it’s a long shot) be up in April/May 2011 and make a run for ROY (even a longer shot). That’s exciting in itself.

That’s the good news. The bad news is the rest of the system is ho hum. Folty is my #2 guy in the system but way off from Lyles. Very projectable … Martinez is good too but not where Houston wants to be if you are talking about #3 projectable prospect in the system. Mier is way off and looking like an average MLB SS or Nick Punto-lite.

by bryeic on Dec 27, 2025 8:06 AM EST reply actions