Giants Top 20 Prospects

I would but him in their top 20 on tools alone.

Another guy I liked was Peguero, he killed the Quakes, and Johnny Monell. He had a ton of power

Missouri kid. Saw him play one game in HS… didn’t see him do much but he was a strong kid. Big kid. Surkamp might be low if he can be a mid rotation starter and he’s posted a 5/1 K/BB ratio. I don’t know anything other than what you wrote on him though.

I agree exactly with your top 2, but then things start to go south. I do agree with most of the guys that you have in your top 20, just not the order you have them in. Mine would be as follows:

1.) Brandon Belt (1B): Incredibly polished for 1 year of pro ball. Does everything well. He’s a natural hitter with a great eye and plate discipline. Nobody in the minors had a better season statistically than he did, even though he was aggressively promoted and played 34% of his games in the extreme pitcher’s league (the EL). His power actually increased going from A+ to AA in mid-season (despite playing in the worst hitter’s park in the league), despite playing in a very difficult home park to hit in. Let’s compare Dom Brown’s first 2 months in the Eastern League (in 2009) at the age of 21.10 years of age wtih Belt’s first 2 months in the EL at the age of 22.2 years of age:
Belt ……. .337/.413/.623/1.036 in 175 ABs he had 10 HRs, K-rate=16.9%, BB-rate=11%
Brown … .279/.346/.456/.801 in 147 ABs he had 3 HRs, K-rate=23.6%, BB-rate=8.8%

2.) Zack Wheeler (RHP): I’m not very worried about his control, it will come back when he gets used to his new mechanics and his new pitches. His peripherals (including BBs) were better than Tyler Matzek’s while pitching in the same league all year. You have to be impressed by the new cut fastball (thrown in the low 90s) that he developed this year as a strikeout/groundout pitch - which explains his elite GO/AO ratio and the fact that he has yet to give up a single HR in his pro career (59 innings). He looked very calm, composed and impressive in his 1 inning stint in the Futures Game.

3. Gary Brown (CF): Already plays major league-level D in CF, but he needs to learn how to hit with a wooden bat. I believe in him because, as far back as high school, he’s already shown himself to be a very competitive guy that learns things quickly and progresses every year that he plays the game. I’d compare him to Lenny Dykstra with better D and more speed, but less power.

4. Thomas Neal (LF/RF): Nice overall season. Power drop somewhat worrisome, but splits show that it was park-related (not surprising since the Richmond stadium really suppresses power numbers). His footspeed and D are much better than is normally acknowledged, and he has a plus arm that would play in RF.

5. Brandon Crawford (SS): alreay plays major league-level D at SS, just needs to realize that he’s not a power hitter and try to hit more for contact and to the gaps. I think that he’ll blossom at the plate in the PCL next year and earn a late-season callup to SF.

6. Mike Kickham (LHP): A lefty that throws mid-90s and has 2 other pitches that are at fringe-average. He needs to work on his control and secondary pithces, but give him a full offseason working with Dick Tidrow, Steve Kline, etc., and watch out for him next year.

7. Roger Kieschnick (RF): Lost season due to back injury, but he’s already shown himself to be a + defender with a ++ arm in RF, with above-average footspeed and power. He does need to develop plate discipline and cut down on his Ks. Will need to re-establish his power while repeating the EL next year.

8. Jorge Bucardo (RHP): Has excelled at every level and gotten better every season – still only 20 (turns 21 on 11/18). He has a plus sinker (GO/AO = 2.05 between the SAL and CAL) and his K/BB was better than 3.0 in 114 innings and 18 starts in the SAL. He also showed that he could physically withstand a full season as a starter, despite his slight build, by pitching 153 innings in 25 starts and 2 relief appearances. Questions still remain about his durability, velocity, and secondary pitches.

9. Francisco Peguero (CF/RF): Incredibly athletic and fast. A potential 4-tool player, but still very, very raw. It’s very worrisome that he doesn’t seem to be progressing much in his attempt to learn the fundamentals of the game - especially running the bases and basestealing. He won’t be able to outrun his mistakes on the basepaths and in the field as the competition gets tougher, no to mention that he has to learn plate discipline. I’m not a true believer in his ability to make the grade.

10. Heath Hembree (RHP): Has the stuff to rocket through the system as a reliever (a la Dan Runzler in 2009). Although, I would love to see them try him as a starter in the low-A SAL next year. He was a starter during his 2 years in junior college and then he was treated very gently as the closer for the College of Charleston in 2010. He throws a heavy FB that consistently sits in the mid-90s and can touch triple digits. After signing late, he had an eye-popping K/9=18.0 (with 0 BBs) in 12 games and 11 innings out of the pen in the AZ Rookie League.

11. Jarrett Parker (CF): Must learn to hit with a wooden bat, overhaul his swing mechanics (too long and armsy right now), learn some plate discipline (too many Ks in college), and get physically stronger and fitter. In his one long-term try at a wooden bat league (Cape Cod in 2009) he was a miserable failure, hitting below the Mendoza line and striking out at an alarming rate. On the plus side, he plays + D in CF and is very athletic and fast.

12. Chuckie Jones (CF/RF): Has already proven that he can hit with a wooden bat and translate his + raw power potential into actual game-time power - all while playing half the season at the tender age of 17 (he turned 18 on July 28th). He is a true 5-tool talent and physical specimen (6’3", 235) that already has the build and athleticism to play running back or linebacker in the NFL. He tied for the most HRs in the minors for any 2010 high school draftee. He played 46 games (starting 90 % of them in CF) in the AZ Rookie League and put up the following batting stats in 165 ABs: .279/.360/.461/.820 with 5 HRs and an ISO=.182. He did K almost 32% of the time, but he also walked at a 10.5% clip, so he’s not entirely an unremitting hacker at the plate. Reportedly, he needs to shorten his swing and learn to take better routes to the ball in the OF.

13. Ehire Adrianza (SS): I love his glove and + range, but he has no power (even in the power-happy Cal League) and I doubt that his bat will ever develop enough to allow him to hit above .250 in the majors. But he still has a lot of time to work on it (he only just turned 21 on August 21st). On the plus side, he’s athletic and fast.

14. Seth Rosin (RHP): A strong workhorse with an above-average FB with movement that he can already command and control. Given his ability to not give up free passes, I think that he can move very quickly through the system as a reliever if he can develop a decent secondary strikeout pitch (change or slider). However, seeing how stocked the Giants are in the bullpen in both the majors and minors, I’d like the Giants to be patient with him and let him develop as a starter. All he needs is to develop 2 above-average secondary pitches (I’d prefer the changeup and the slider, but he already has a decent curve) to be a back of the rotation mainstay.

15. Eric Surkamp (LHP): He’s a good-sized (6’4", 190) lefty starter with a consistent and long history of elite K-rates in his entire 3 seasons of minor league ball (300 Ks in 249.2 innings = K/9 of 10.8). He also doesn’t walk batters (BB/9 = 2.3), so his K/BB is an eye-popping 4.5. On the other hand, he doesn’t throw hard (FB sits in high 80s), he is already 23.3 years old, he’s never pitched above A+ ball, and he’s coming off a hip injury that completely derailed his 2010 season after only 2.5 months and 101 innings. Hopefully he’ll recover enough in the offseason and show enough in ST next March to open the season in AA Richmond of the EL. You can never give up on lefties that miss bats.

16. Charlie Culberson (2B): He made huge strides this year at the plate, and even a bit in the field. He finally found his power stroke (17 HRs and ISO=.167), despite injuring his thumb in late June, after 2 full seasons of no power at all. He also cut way down on his Ks in the last 2/3rds of the season. He just turned 21.5 years old, so he’s still young for his league (and will be when he starts in the EL next spring). He has shown that his hot-hitting wasn’t just a Cal League mirage by slashing .400/.438/.733/1.171 with 1 HR in his first 3 games in the AFL this week (yes, it’s an extremely SSS). Obviously the Giants see enough in him to use their exemption on him at such a young age. On the other hand, he still has limitations with his D in the field, but a permanent switch from 3B to 2B this season seems to have given him more peace of mind and his D did improve. He has the potential to be a rare, Uggla-like power-hitting 2B in the majors who plays a bit better D. He also has the footspeed and baserunning smarts to be an above average basestealer (25 of 32 attempts in 2010, 15 of 19 in 2009).

17. Tommy Joseph (C/1B): Ks and plate discipline are a huge issue (K-rate=25% / BB-rate=5.6% in 436 ABs), but he was able to translate his power potential into actual game-time power (16 HRs / ISO=.165) in his first pro season as an 18/19 year old in the low-A Sallie League. Due to his lack of quickness, footspeed, and range, I believe that he can only make it in the majors if he can stick at catcher or become a DH. His 19 PBs in a little over 60 games behind the plate casts the former possibility in a bad light.

18. Dan Burkhart ( C ): Alex Wimmers’s catcher in college. He always had a good rep for his D behind the plate, and he threw out a huge percentage of baserunners in college. His bat was a question mark, but he had a good first month with the wooden bat as a pro in the AZL and NWL after signing late. He slashed .329/.404/.439/.843 in 82 ABs. I see him as a potentially valuable backup to Buster Posey in 2 years, or as trade bait.

19. Reinier Roibal (RHP): One of the top young pitchers in Cuba before his defection in 2009, he signed with the Giants in April of 2010 and saw only very limited action (9 games and 9 innings with a K/9=14.5) out of the pen in the AZ Rookie League. He’s got good size (6’2", 210) and those that saw him pitch in Cuba report that he has electric stuff when he’s on his game. I can’t wait to see him in 2011 after a full offseason under his belt. On the negative side, he’ll turn 22 in the middle of January next year.

20. Brandon Allen (RHP): A tall (6’6", 190), athletic (a star power forward on his high school team) kid (just turned 19 in the middle of August). The Giants drafted him in the 18th round out of a small high shool in central Florida and he signed at the end of June. The Giants were working on his mechanics so he only got in a mere 6 innings over 5 games in the AZ Rookie League this summer. He’s got got a dogged competitve streak from his strong bloodlines. His father played several years for the Sacremento Kings in the NBA, and his older brother is on the Univ. of Florida basketball team. Basketball was his first love, so he’s never fully concentrated on baseball or pitching. Because of this he’s very raw, but has a huge upside. He already throws his FB in the low-90s and it has touched 94.

21. Jake Dunning (RHP): He’s a 2009 college SS who finally converted to full-time pitching out of the pen this season in tne ss-A Northwest League. In 18 games and 37 innings he posted excellent results - with a K/9=11.3, K/BB=6.0, GO/AO=1.82, and a WHIP=1.04. He has the size (6’4", 190), velocity (sits mid-90s and touches 95), and control (only 8 BBs in 37 innings) to excel as a closer or setup man in the majors - he just needs some time to develop his craft after being a position player for 95% of the time in his college years and first pro year. On the negative side, he already turned 22 in August.

22. Jacob Dunnington (RHP): He’s still growing and maturing physically, despite his already good height (6’2", 160). He had a big jump in his FB velocity (about 5 MPH to the mid 90s) in the summer after he graduated from high school, and the Giants signed him as an undrafted free agent in Sept. 2009. He finally made his pro debut by working out of the pen in the AZ Rookie League starting in June of this year. He dominated the league and had fantastic statistical results in 17 games and 29 innings: Runs=2, K/9=14.1, K/BB=3, BAA=.109, WHIP=.87. I’d love to see the Giants stretch him out as a starter next year.

Honorable Mention: Jose Casillas (RHP), Craig Westcott (RHP), Michael Main (RHP), Jason Stoffel (RHP), Chris Dominguez (3B/1B), Chris Lofton (CF), Carlos Willoughby (2B), Julio Izturis (2B), Kendry Flores (RHP), Leonardo Fuentes (RF/LF), Nick Liles (2B), Hector Sanchez ( C ), Juan Carlos Perez (CF), Jose Flores (IF)

And I agree with it in principle. I am almost always somebody that puts more stock than most in actual experience and productiion on the field than on nebulous “potential”. You can see how high I have Crawford and Kieschnick rated, partly because of that. However, in this case, when the vast majority of the prospects that Giants have in AA and above are so uninspiring, I felt that I had to put more weight on potential and youth than I normally do.

Nice input Fla-Giant.

Brandon Belt has turned out to be the steal of the draft. I like Brown, Bucardo, Culberson, Rosin and Adrianza a lot.

Is Peguero #3 and Neal #4 a knock on Neal, or a big thumbs up for Peguero?

1 – Zack Wheeler, RHP
2 – Brandon Belt, 1B
3 – Thomas Neal, OF
4 – Conor Gillaspie, 3B
5 – Ehire Adrianza, SS
6 – Gary Brown, OF
7 – Eric Surkamp, LHP
8 – Francisco Peguero, OF
9 – Brandon Crawford, SS
10 – Tommy Joseph, C
11 – Henry Sosa, RHP
12 – Jarrett Parker, OF
13 – Chris Dominguez, 3B
14 – Chris Gloor, LHP
15 – Mike Kickham, LHP
16 – Jorge Bucardo, RHP
17 – Roger Kieschnick, OF
18 – Nick Noonan, 2B
19 – Heath Hembree, RHP
20 – Daniel Burkhart, C

Honorable mentions: Ryan Cavan, 2B, Charlie Culberson, 2B, Jacob Dunnington, RHP, Darren Ford, OF, Tyler Graham, OF, OF Chuckie Jones, Kelvin Marte, LHP, Hector Sanchez, C, Clayton Tanner, LHP, Ryan Verdugo, LHP.

The guy has zero power, can walk a bit, doesn’t hit for average, but plays a great SS and everyone’s acting like OMFG SHORTSTOP OF THE FUTURE TOP 10 PROSPECT! Is he just really projectable? Is 20 that young for High-A? I really don’t understand the hype.

I do like Gary Brown though. As Fla-Giant said, he can and does walk, he just didn’t last year because he hit .438. When you’re hitting .438, you probably aren’t looking to work the count too much, because half of your ABs are ending up with you on base anyway, and hits>walks. Right now, he looks like a GG CF, a plus baserunner, and a decent OBP threat (I figure he’ll get on base one way or another, either via hits or walks), assuming he can transition to wood bats, which definitely isn’t a given. Worst case scenario, a 4th OF. Best case, Matt Kemp with a little less power.

And is Brock Bond really that bad? .400+ OBPs pretty much everywhere he goes, and I’ve heard he can play a passable second. Sounds like Nick Johnson, 2B, but with fewer injuries. Considering Freddy Sanchez has just as much power as he does, and doesn’t walk all that much, I don’t know why Bond can’t be a good 2B, and therefore why they should make Gillaspie a 2B since “there’s no one blocking him at AAA”. Guzman looks like the regular 3B at Fresno (with a little Rohlinger), and God knows we don’t want to interrupt the development of a positionless 26 year old. I wouldn’t be surprised if some team looking for a cheap DH would want him, then put Gillaspie at third. Move Rohlinger to the bigs and make him a utility INF to free up SS for Crawford in Fresno. Then there’s room for a 2B who walks more than he K’s until Franchez is gone in 2012.

The kid threw only 60 innings in 2010. How many innings will he be able to throw in 2011 without doing harm to his pitching arm? Will he be able to throw 90, 110, 125 innings in 2011?

How will this affect his ETA to The City? He should be ready by the time The Albatross is ready to leave SF rotation.