Discussion: Denard Span vs. Jay Bruce

by John Sickels on Sep 24, 2025 10:55 PM EDT Comment 35 comments

This is an Apples/Oranges one, but it may not be as simple as you might think initially.

Who will end up having a better career....Denard Span or Jay Bruce?

Span is clearly better now, but Bruce is more than three years younger. Their styles are very different...if you had to pick one of these guys to have on your favorite team's roster for the next ten years, which would it be?

Jeri now has what appears to be H1N1 flu in addition to her surgery recovery, so I'm still not fully operational around here. But this website is blessed with the smartest members on the internet, so let's have a good discussion here.

Poll

Who do you want for the next ten years Jay Bruce or Denard Span?

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Read More: Denard Span (LF - MIN), Jay Bruce (RF - CIN)

Comments

No brainer...

I like Span, but this one seems like a no-brainer. Bruce has a significantly higher ceiling and an equivalent floor.

by Lark11 on Sep 24, 2025 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

this

is kind of a rough question because they are such different types of players. I’m biased, but I take Bruce on his power potential alone.

by sharks on Sep 25, 2025 12:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jeri:

Prayers her way and yours for a speedy recovery.

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on Sep 25, 2025 12:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 25, 2025 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best Wishes

My brother-in-law had the virus a few months ago. He’s now fully recovered. All the best in a speedy and full recovery for Jeri.

by ofsticksandbats on Sep 25, 2025 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Best wishes!

by rmarx on Sep 25, 2025 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ack

One of my friends had it. The flu and ensuing quarantine sucked, but she made a full recovery. Hope Jeri does the same.

"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)

by drjayphd on Sep 25, 2025 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Sep 26, 2025 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jay Bruce

Not even close.

by nivarsity on Sep 25, 2025 1:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yep

his BABIP was ridiculous low this season.

i like him as much as anyone to hit 30-50 HRs every healthy season

by daveh33 on Sep 25, 2025 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The low BABIP

Was driven by a ridiculously low LD rate and a very high FB rate.
I love Bruce going forward, but the BABIP was reflective of the way he hit.
For an example, look at Ian Kinsler’s batted-ball numbers from last year, compare them to this year. His BABIp is down about 100 points, and his LD rate is down 10ish%.

I like steak.

by Conjunction on Sep 25, 2025 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

on both counts

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Sep 26, 2025 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bruce

I voted Bruce because of his power potential and with the thought that his Batting Average has got to improve…..

by barlow078 on Sep 25, 2025 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

SPAN!!!

Bruce does have the higher ceiling, but I think Span can turn into a Kenny Lofton type if he runs more. I am loving the contact shown by him and to me, he’s a lower-risk player and I would play it safe.

by sheetskout on Sep 25, 2025 10:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

span

I really thought this would be closer….i thought Bruce would win, but I thought it would be more 60/40 than 85/15. Span is really good.

by John Sickels on Sep 25, 2025 11:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2 reasons

I think the reasons it isn’t close are: 1) trajectory and 2) it isn’t all that close (what their expected results should be). Span just didn’t seem like he would become this good when he was in AA and AAA. Bruce didn’t seem like he would do as poorly. But a lot of that is babip.

I’d have added that there is likely some roto-player bias towards Bruce and his power and away from fielding, but span doesn’t really even have a fielding advantage. At least not this year, where bruce actually has the advantage.

by wobatus on Sep 25, 2025 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is close - you probably can't go wrong - but I agree: Span!

Yes, I’m wholeheartedly a Twins fan. But I’ve been converted from complete skepticism re: span to genuine appreciation. He rarely hurts the team, and I’d rather have him on my team for the next ~7 years than Bruce - he’s (slightly) more of a scarce commodity, should be entering his Lofton-like prime, and I’d be confident in finding a cheaper approximate match for Bruce in the free agent market.

…unless I were Bill Smith, in which case I would likely fire myself…

by FMelius on Sep 25, 2025 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Span too

but 35-40 HR upside and middle of the order potential is just too valuable to pass on. From watching Bruce, it looks to me like he over-swings at mistake pitches, which he doesn’t have to with the easy power he has with his swing anyway, so I’m hoping as he gets older he’ll realize all he needs to do is put bat on ball and not try to swing harder. It also looks like he is trying to pull the ball too much.

That’s what makes this comparison so hard, they are two different types of offensive players (this also makes the question intriguing of course). I take a potential above-average middle of the order hitter any day over the perfect lead-off hitter. though this all depends on whether Bruce puts it together, of course. Span looks to be a stud already.

by sharks on Sep 28, 2025 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice encapsulation

Bruce has been on a power binge lately, and has featured his short, sharp stroke that lines balls out of our ridiculous home park. When his swing gets long he gets in trouble. His tools are not in question. His skills are.

by blackoutyears on Oct 1, 2025 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So tough

It’s like comparing Scott Baker to Homer Bailey. It’s always hard to comp a less spectacular talent who’s actually done something (and something pretty good!) to a blue chipper who has struggled. The extremity of the risk reward with the latter can tend to make the question look silly in restrospect, whether due to total realization of ability or utter failure.

I’m a Reds fan first and foremost, and I’m not sure what to make of Bruce. The closer to home question I ask myself is: who has the better career of Bruce and Votto? I could see Bruce spiking way past Votto in peak years, but I can see Votto replicating this season with some (uninterrupted by crippling depression) peaks of his own. Does slow and steady win the race, or does blinding talent? Long story short, I agree with you, John, that the question is closer than it first appears. It just goes to show how underrated Span still is I suppose.

by blackoutyears on Sep 25, 2025 12:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

chose span

he was always that guy on the cusp that could be something special if he ever took that next step…last year, he took that next step, and he doesn’t show up in pretty numbers that fantasy players like, but he helps that team tremendously if for no other reason than he gets on base in front of mauer and morneau and makes pitchers have to throw them decent pitches so that he doesn’t take off to the next base….

i love bruce’s talent…but not too long ago, a post like this could have been made of austin kearns and adam dunn….it isn’t hard to see now who the better of that duo was, but the prevailing thought at the time with them was kearns because he put up prettier stats (though lower homer numbers) and didn’t strike out a ton…i’m not comparing the two situations as apples to apples, but just that sometimes how the majors play out is different than what the minors said they should….heck…look at the twins outfield lately - span, d.young, gomez….two of the three were highly touted prospects, and the one that wasn’t is the one that’s produced for the team….go figure

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Sep 25, 2025 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I picked Bruce, but I agree that players like Span, Chone Figgins, Nyjer Morgan, are extremely undervalued for the things they bring that don’t show up on the stat line. Look at how many pitches they see, how they work deep into counts from the leadoff spot and allow teamates to get reads and looks off pitchers. Then, once they are on base, how many fastballs they force opposing pitchers to throw, what psychological effects they have on pitchers and defense, etc.

by ScottAZ on Sep 25, 2025 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

except

When Span was Bruce’s age his walk rate was 7% in AA. I have to admit I didn’t realize Bruce’s walk rate was so low or k rate as high in the minors, but the power was there and that’s what I recalled. Span has definitely improved but at 22 he didn’t look like he’d be this good. And Span isn’t that huge of a threat on the bases as he gets caught, and Bruce’s UZR was better this year, albeit it’s just one year’s sample. But I guess it is a lot closer on my first glance. Span just upped the walk rate and lowered the k rate and suddenly he is quite good. Bruce has to actually make the leap.

by wobatus on Sep 25, 2025 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

we’ll see how span does in the future on the bases. span claims that the bad baserunning will be an aberation and he should be a force on the bases in the future.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Answer-Man-Denard-Span-talks-beaning-OBP-Targ?urn=mlb,191898

by ScottAZ on Sep 25, 2025 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the thing is

players rarely make the improvements Span made and sustain them. He’s legit as it stands.

I still chose Bruce.

by Daniel Berlyn on Sep 25, 2025 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

any thoughts on ryan sweeney?

Since mid june, he’s been playing really well. His WAR for 09 is 3.6, surprisingly higher than players like ellsbury, swisher, ethier, etc. I think offensively he might have a mark kotsay type upside, but will need to shift back to CF to be passable offensively. At the same time he’s an elite defender in RF, but only above avg in CF. So which position in terms of defense/offense would be better long term?

by Asfan4ever723 on Sep 25, 2025 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

thankfully someone needed to mention the A’s

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Sep 25, 2025 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it doesn't matter as long as the A's reap the benefits defensively

keep him in right field as long as Davis keeps it up in center. Why not have one of the best outfields in the game?

by Daniel Berlyn on Sep 25, 2025 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: get well soon jeri!

sending prayers and good well thoughts to you and your family.

I chose Span because he’s an effective lead-off hitter type or number two hitter in the lineup. Bruce has a LOT of potential, but his plate discipline stinks. (for now). It makes me wonder why the Twins even wanted Carlos Gomez…who wishes he could be like Denard Span.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Sep 25, 2025 3:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's why

Gomez is one of the best CF’s in the game (defensively) and he’s still progressing. That and Span’s OPS for 05-07 was below .700 in the minors. He really wasn’t too promising but then he put it together towards the end of 07. Many thought it was an aberration but he was ridiculous to begin 08 and Cuddyers injury made the Twins call him up. He never looked back and has been one of the better lead off hitters since then.

The need for a CF was very real for the Twins in 07 and Span is still not the defender that Gomez is. Ideally, Gomez finds a way to get better offensively and They can start Span Gomez Cuddyer in the outfield next year and have one of the best defensive outfields in the league as Gomez/Span make up for Cuddyer being average.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Sep 27, 2025 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bruce

at this point because of the obvious tool advantage that he has, but another year like this year and that would swing to span

by ScottAZ on Sep 25, 2025 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hate to Say It

But I voted Bruce here. I don’t see any upside to Span and think this will be as good as it ever gets for him. An anemic LD% and a high BABIP don’t bode well in my mind. His almost nonexistent power too.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Sep 26, 2025 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

I fail to see what’s so anemic about Span’s career 21.3 LD% (and Bruce is the one with the especially low LD% this year). Span’s xBABIP (from the Hardball Times) for his career is .341. So you could expect just a little bit of regression there.

by Mike I on Sep 26, 2025 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

Who’s career LD numbers are you using? According to Minor League Splits, his career rate is 14.3% and according to Baseball-Reference, it’s 17%. Where did you get your numbers? Also, where did you find his career xBABIP? I couldn’t find it anywhere on HT. Also, I’m not entirely sold on xBABIP either.

And even if he isn’t “lucky”, I just don’t buy his skill set. To me, he’s Cameron Maybin with fewer Ks and much less power.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Sep 30, 2025 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FanGraphs

for his batted ball percentages. The HT xBABIP is a downloadable spreadsheet in Excel. It’s not perfect of course, mainly because it doesn’t take into account how hard the batter hits the ball, or whether the batter has that ability to “hit ‘em where they ain’t.” I’m not sure how much regression (if any) you can expect in his BABIP.

He has much better contact and plate discipline skills than Cameron Maybin with not much less power (.137 vs. .117 ISO). You don’t have to be a masher to be a valuable hitter. He’s accumulated 6.5 WAR in 2 seasons in MLB - that’s a pretty good player.

by Mike I on Oct 1, 2025 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs