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Astros Top 20 Prospects

Astros Top 20 prospects

I was a little bored last night and since the Astros season ended during this awful road trip, I thought it would be interesting to see where farm system is doing.

1. Jason Castro, C

Astros top prospect doing well at AA. However, team shouldn't rush him too quickly and seeing how J.R. Towles development played out (or lack thereof), they won't.

2. Jordan Lyles, RHP

Astros top pitching prospect destroying Low-A hitting with impressive projectible stuff. Only 18 years old. Team should be careful to limit his innings. 2nd starter ability.

3. Bud Norris, RHP

PCL ERA leader doing well so far for the big league team. Lack of size and command issues limit his long-term potential. 3rd starter ability or future closer.

4. Ross Seaton, RHP

Local pitcher doing well at Low-A. Similar to Lyles but not striking out as many hitters. Only 19 years old. Astros fans will keep tabs on his development very closely.

5. Jiovanni Mier, SS

2009 1st round pick has started professional career well. Very good defensively. Long term question will be how well he hits.

6. Yorman Bazardo, RHP

Technically not a prospect but minor league free agent has turned his career around after disastrous 2008 season at IL. Lack of strikeouts and delivery issues will always concern me. Could be 4th starter.

7. J.B. Shuck, OF

Lead off hitter doing very well at Lancaster (420 OBP%). Only real weakness is lack of power. Rated higher than any other Lancaster hitter because in belief that his game will translate better beyond Lancaster's hitter environment.

8. Sammy Gervacio, RHP

Has had up and down season at AAA, but weird delivery should fool hitters for a while. Future set-up man.

9. Chia Jen Lo, RHP

Korean pitcher has handled 1st professional season well at AA. Future set-up man.


10. Polin Trinidad, LHP

Started well at AA, struggled a bit at AAA, but command remains strong. Probable career as long inning relief man.

11. Dallas Keuchel, LHP

2009 8th round pick has start professional career nicely. Advanced pitcher that could move through the system quickly.

12. Brian Bogusevic, OF

Pitcher turned hitter hasn't hit as much this year at AAA. Still inexperienced in terms of hitting. Lack of power probably limits him to 4th outfielder.

13. Jay Austin, OF

18-year old holding his own at Lexington. Nice speed, okay defense, but lack of patience. Development will take time.

14. Jon Gaston, OF

2009 Minor league home run leader. However, too many strikeouts, lack of size and Lancasters hitter-friendly environment worry me. Must see AA numbers.

15. Koby Clemens, 3B

Great offensive season at Lancaster but defensive issues and inflated numbers hurt his stock. Must see AA numbers.

16. Tanner Bushue, RHP

2009 2nd round pick started very well professionally and has high upside, but hasn't pitched recently. Will take time to develop.

17. Chris Johnson, 3B

Hasn't translated his tools into skills at AAA, still young enough to improve, but I'm not optimistic.

18. Fernando Abad, LHP

One of the only pitchers doing well at Lancaster, his superb control stands out (7BB in 70+ innings)

19. T.J. Steele, OF

Injured for much of the sesason, Steele is hitting well, but contact issues will hold him back.

20. Daniel Meszaros, RHP

2008 48th round pick holding his own at AA. Future reliever.

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments |

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Comments

Display:

Ew.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Aug 16, 2025 2:46 PM EDT reply actions  

I can't believe

there’s someone so dedicated to researching the ’Stros system

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 16, 2025 3:06 PM EDT reply actions  

looks decent

I think Mier is either 3 or 4 in the system depending on how you think Norris projects long-term . . .I mentioned on here pre-draft that I thought his hitting ability was underrated, but I don’t think anybody could have seen this coming. Very high upside . . .jump on this bandwagon while the load is light.

I also think you’re not putting enough emphasis on the few guys beyond the top who have considerable upside (Austin, Clemens, Bushue). All three are much more valuable than guys who don’t project to be better than decent middle relief options.

by mrkupe on Aug 16, 2025 3:06 PM EDT reply actions  

No Bundy? Stuff is there, just needs some results.

Mickolio? I like his stuff to even if he is just a SU type RP.

by jfish26101 on Aug 16, 2025 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Probably because they are in the Orioles organization and not Astros.

by bigboy1234 on Aug 16, 2025 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

:D

My bad…

by jfish26101 on Aug 16, 2025 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure what I was thinking but it should have struck me before this point. :D

I think the top 4-5 is solid (and probably the right order) but some real question marks after that. I am surprised Gaston is so low in a system that shouldn’t be strong enough to keep someone from ranking him higher. Austin was a guy I thought looked interesting out of last year’s draft and, as others said, Clemens/Steele look interesting as well.

System doesn’t look as bad as it did a couple years ago but still has a ways to go. I give them credit for going after the players they like despite everyone else thinking they were crazy to do so. Certainly puts pressure on them, if these players fail a lot of people will probably say it was obvious they were going to even when the team took them.

by jfish26101 on Aug 16, 2025 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good list

I like your list overall, but there are a few things I would add:

Don’t put much too weight in lower-level stats, good or bad. Stats below AA, in particular, don’t always tell the whole story. Clubs ask players to work on areas of their game that will ultimately make them better players, but may or may not show up in box scores. That doesn’t mean to dismiss improvements in stat lines from year to year, but assessments based only on box scores can be misleading.

I would rate Steele higher than you have him, probably higher than Gaston and Shuck. He’s had some hamstring issues, but he has the highest ceiling of the three and has had good results, when healthy.

I wouldn’t worry about Gaston’s size, 6’0" 210 is plenty big for a guy to hit for power. Bagwell was 6’0" 195 (though he was around 220 in his prime), Mickey Mantle was 5’11" 198. Another note, Pelligrini hit his 30th HR yesterday, though 7 were for Lancaster.

Clemens has an OPS of .995 away from Lancaster, so I wouldn’t discredit his offense too much. But, the lack of a position does hurt and I still don’t see him hitting well enough to be a big-league regular unless he makes major strides defensively at catcher.

DeLome still should be there somewhere, probably toward the end of the list. Johnson’s season as a whole has been a disappointment, but is finishing strong, with a .920 OPS this month. I imagine he’ll be in the AFL again this summer. Manzella’s not a player that generates excitement, but has turned in a decent season at the plate (especially if you throw out June) and has been ready defensively. He’s not top 10 material, but has more value than a relief prospect. Dydalewicz should be in the mix, also.

by astrosfan76 on Aug 16, 2025 4:15 PM EDT reply actions  

I still have hopes for J.R. Towles

but I doubt my hopes will be fulfilled while he wears a Houston uniform. He has put up some pretty nice #s in AAA to this point and I think a change in scenery might really help him out.

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Aug 16, 2025 5:00 PM EDT reply actions  

nice, but

it would be more interesting to those of us who don’t follow the Astros if you provided a few numbers to go along. X is doing well, or Y has been disappointing is pretty limited info, if one knows little about them to begin with.

Nice effort though.

by jcnyc on Aug 16, 2025 5:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Bud Norris

What are the chances he gets moved to closer?

by johnnycomelately9 on Aug 16, 2025 7:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Norris

I’m sure the Astros will give him every opportunity to be a starter. The back end of the rotation is terrible and has literally destroyed their season. Until they get better options or if Norris implodes in the rotation, he will stay in the rotation for the forseeable future.

by rjg6891 on Aug 16, 2025 9:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Towles

gore51, regarding towles, he is probably their best hitter at AAA, but the organization seems to just doesn’t believe in him anymore for whatever reason. I personally think he is a better option than all the catchers on the major league roster.

by rjg6891 on Aug 16, 2025 9:16 PM EDT reply actions  

astrosfan51

I agree with your statements mostly. I based my rankings some on stats, others on scouting reports I’ve read, age relative to how close they are to the bigs, and on previous rankings here on the website and elsewhere.

I did forget about Delome when posting the list and probably would put him 14-17 but he also has issues. I put Steele that low because he hasn’t played as much as the others that can hurt his development, especially with his patience.

Manzella is too old to be put on this list without have considerable upside but there are rumors he will contend for the SS position next year if Tejada doesn’t sign or agrees to move to third.

by rjg6891 on Aug 16, 2025 9:25 PM EDT reply actions  

jfish26101

With regards Gaston, it’s possible I rated him too low but everywhere I hear is that he will struggle in the upper minors. He has big strikeout issues that worry me (around 140 this season) and usually plays DH instead of the outfield, so I’m not sure about his defense. Also, there was no mention of him having such a great year because he hadn’t done it before. Let’s not forget about Lancaster, either. But, who knows, he might suprise us all.

The system is getting better, but it will take more time before it is regarded as good. The only projected MLB regular hitter in the upper minors is Castro and most of their best prospects are still in A-ball. But their past two drafts have been productive, so far. I just wish they could done more beforehand.

by rjg6891 on Aug 16, 2025 9:34 PM EDT reply actions  

The reply button

Learn it. Use it.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Aug 16, 2025 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

not right now

Maybe in the future, Lyles will be better than Castro, but not on this list.

by rjg6891 on Aug 17, 2025 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm

You have Gaston way too low. There really isn’t even an argument in my opinion to have him at 14, unless you think all the guys above him are at least B- types (which of course they are not).

Other guys that are somewhat interesting…Brian Pelligrini who has been mentioned, Henry Villar, and Julio (JD) Martinez.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 18, 2025 3:05 PM EDT reply actions  

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