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Draft Preview - Detroit Tigers

Part three in my series looks at the Detroit Tigers, who choose at #9 overall in the 2009 draft.  Check it out.

Owner: Michael Ilitch, bought club in 1992
General Manager: Dave Dombrowski, first season was 2002
Scouting Director: David Chadd, first draft was 2005

Looking Back

2005 Draft: $3.8 Million Budget

1. Cameron Maybin, OF, TC Roberson HS (NC), #10 overall: Dave Chadd opened up his Tigers tenure with an excellent pick.  Maybin was widely considered the second-best prep hitter behind Justin Upton, and BA had him ranked #3 overall approaching the draft.  This draft was talent-rich in outfielders, and Maybin was right up there with any of them.  Excellent start for Chadd.  Following players picked: Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Brandon Snyder.  Signing bonus: $2.65 million.
2. Chris Robinson, C, Illinois, #90 overall: Without a supplemental or second round pick, the Tigers planned on using most of their budget on their #10 pick, which they did.  However, it hurt the rest of their crop a little.  Robinson was a slight overdraft, mainly due to a hand injury his junior year.  However, this was seen as a fairly solid pick of a well-known college catcher.  Following players picked: James Boone, Zach Ward, Brandon Erbe.  Signing bonus: $422,000.
3. Kevin Whelan, RHP, Texas A&M, #120 overall: Whelan became a well-known college reliever, having been a backup catcher entering college.  He was reaching the mid-90s with his fastball, and most projected him to go right around this range.  Good value for the fourth round.  Following players picked: Brent Lillibridge, Sam LeCure, Kieron Pope.  Signing bonus: $265,000.
4. Jeff Larish, 1B, Arizona State, #150 overall: Larish made a bad mistake by turning down a reported $660,000 offer from the Dodgers in 2004.  He had a good senior year, but we all know that seniors have little leverage.  This was a nice pick by the Tigers, despite Larish's well-documented flaws.  Following players picked: Jeff Sues, James Avery, Reid Hamblet.  Signing bonus: $220,000.
5. Clete Thomas, OF, Auburn, #180 overall: Thomas was one of those college players who went to school thinking their tools would click, making them a top draft prospect.  However, he never performed, making him a prospect for the end of the first day.  Good pick by Chadd to get an older prospect that still had tools, as Thomas fell further than most expected, perhaps a full two rounds, maybe more.  Following players picked: Cameron Blair, Jeff Stevens, Blake Owen.  Signing bonus: $150,000.
Other Notable Picks: RHP Anthony Claggett (11th), UC Riverside; OF Matt Joyce (12th), Florida Southern; OF Casper Wells (14th), Towson; SS Michael Hollimon (16th), Oral Roberts; RHP Burke Badenhop (19th), Bowling Green; 2B Will Rhymes (27th), William & Mary

 

2006 Draft: $6.0 Million Budget

1. Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina, #6 overall: Miller was the consensus top talent in the 2006 draft, but he fell due to bonus concerns.  This was without even having Scott Boras as his agent.  The Tigers swooped in and signed him to a $5.4 million Major League contract.  This move was beyond the control of Chadd.  Following players selected: Clayton Kershaw, Drew Stubbs, Bill Rowell.  Signing bonus: $3.55 million.
2. Ronnie Bourquin, 3B, Ohio State, #50 overall: This was widely considered an overdraft by the baseball community, as Bourquin was a fourth round talent at best.  He hit quite well his junior year at OSU, but showed little power and bad defense.  This was an obvious move to save a little money after picking Miller.  Following players selected: Jeff Locke, Sean Watson, Chad Huffman.  Signing bonus: $690,000.
3. Brennan Boesch, OF, California, #82 overall: This was right around where Boesch was expected to go, and he was almost universally rated higher than Bourquin leading up to the draft.  An athletic center fielder, Boesch was another college player whose tools were better than his performance.  Following players selected: Aaron Bates, Chris Valaika, Zach Britton.  Signing bonus: $445,000.
4. Ryan Strieby, 1B, Kentucky, #112 overall: Strieby was considered a slight overdraft by insiders, and BA thought of Strieby as a sixth rounder at best.  However, his performance at Kentucky was great.  Good power, problem with breaking balls, average fielder, poor running.  Classic college power hitter.  Following players selected: Kyle Orr, Justin Reed, Blake Davis.  Signing bonus: $295,000.
5. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Virginia Commonwealth, #142 overall: Sizemore was considered an average college middle infield prospect entering his junior year.  He disappointed a little, trying to hit home runs when he profiles more for gap power.  This was a solid pick by Chadd.  Following players selected: Kyle Smit, Josh Ravin, Tyler Henson.  Signing bonus: $197,500.
Other Notable Picks: RHP Jonah Nickerson (7th), Oregon State, $150K bonus; LHP Duane Below (19th), Lake Michigan JC; RHP Casey Fien (20th), Cal Poly; RHP Rudy Darrow (32nd), Nicholls State

 

2007 Draft: $8.0 Million Budget

1. Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (NJ), #27 overall: Once again, the Tigers pounced on a player that fell to them due to signability issues.  Dave Chadd didn't have much to do with this pick, as it took a $7.285 million Major League contract to sign this prep pitcher, widely considered to be the best prep pitcher in his class.  Following players selected: Ben Revere, Wendell Fairley, Andrew Brackman.  Signing bonus: $3.58 million.
2. Brandon Hamilton, RHP, Stanhope Elmore HS (AL), #60 overall: A supplemental first round pick, Hamilton was a slight overdraft, as he supposedly had a first round arm trapped in a body with fifth round command.  He had poor control and a violent delivery, but Chadd called his name anyway.  Following players selected: Ed Easley, Ryan Dent, Cory Luebke.  Signing bonus: $540,000.
3. Danny Worth, SS, Pepperdine, #91 overall: This was a solid pick by Dave Chadd.  Worth's glove was questioned very little, but his bat was a question mark until the summer before his junior year.  However, he hit for average and doubles, climbing boards nationally.  This was around where he was expected to go.  Following players selected: Danny Rams, Brant Rustich, Austin Romine.  Signing bonus: $378,000.
4. Luke Putkonen, RHP, North Carolina, #121 overall: If you've heard of this guy, raise your hand.  Yeah, me neither.  Ranked the 13th-best North Carolina prospect entering the draft, Chadd overdrafted Putkonen, a draft-eligible sophomore.  I'm not sure where Chadd was going with this, but the end result hasn't been that good.  He's a little better this year.  Following players selected: Angel Morales, Stephen Clyne, Ryan Pope.  Signing bonus: $236,000.
5. Charlie Furbush, LHP, LSU, #151 overall: This was another solid pick by Chadd, as Furbush, despite struggles in the spring, was considered one of the top college lefties available.  He had previously been arguably the top lefty in the Cape Cod League the previous summer.  Good pick in the right range.  Following players selected: Reggie Williams, Richard Lucas, Brad Suttle.  Signing bonus: $153,000.
Other Notable Selections: LHP Casey Crosby (5th), Kaneland HS (IL), $748,500 bonus; SS Cale Iorg (6th), Alabama, $1.4975 million bonus; RHP Noah Krol (17th), Wichita State

 

2008 Draft: $3.7 Million Budget

1. Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona, #21 overall: Perry had struggled as a starter at Arizona, but still remained a projected first rounder entering the draft last year.  While some teams liked the idea of moving Perry back to the rotation, the Tigers took the opposite approach and thought of him strictly as a reliever.  Good value considering those on the board at the time.  Following players selected: Reese Havens, Allan Dykstra, Anthony Hewitt.  Signing bonus: $1.48 million.
2. Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Ole Miss, #67 overall: Instead of going a different direction for their second pick, Chadd instead decided to go for a second projected college reliever.  Despite being in the rotation for Ole Miss, there were few, if any, scouts that thought Satterwhite would remain a starter.  Lightning arm, but similar in many ways to Perry.  Following players selected: Javier Rodriguez, James Darnell, Zeke Spruill.  Signing bonus: $606,000.
3. Scott Green, RHP, Kentucky, #99 overall: Yet another college bullpen righty, Green was a much better prospect before his junior season.  He had turned down a bigger bonus offer from the Red Sox after being draft-eligible as a sophomore.  Chadd saw something in his big frame, selecting him with the purpose of more bullpen work.  Following players selected: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Blake Tekotte, Vance Worley.  Signing bonus: $373,000.
4. Brett Jacobson, RHP, Vanderbilt, #133 overall: This is about the time I started laughing at Dave Chadd last June.  A fourth straight college reliever from a large program.  Jacobson, like Green, was a tall, projectable pitcher that jumped velocities with a move to the bullpen.  Still, strange move.  Following players selected: Sean Ratliff, Jason Kipnis, Trevor May.  Signing bonus: $230,000.
5. Alex Avila, C, Alabama, #163 overall: Yeah, just try and tell me this wasn't nepotism.  Avila, the son of assistant general manager Al Avila of the Tigers, was a solid enough catcher for the Crimson Tide, though he was really just your average college catcher.  This was an overdraft of a couple rounds, but he was cheap.  Following players selected: Dock Doyle, Anthony Bass, Jeremy Hamilton.  Signing bonus: $169,000.
Other Notable Picks: RHP Tyler Stohr (6th), North Florida, $150K bonus; LHP Jade Todd (7th), Shades Valley HS (AL), $150K bonus; OF Andy Dirks (8th), Wichita State, $35K bonus; RHP Robbie Weinhardt (10th), Oklahoma State, $15K bonus; SS Brandon Douglas (11th), Northern Iowa

 

Those are the four drafts that Dave Chadd has run since he joined the Tigers.  He was previously with the Marlins when Dave Dombrowski was there.  Some interesting trends include the penchant for college players, usually pitchers.  Last year was a huge exception from the drafts before it, as evidenced by picking four college relievers in a row to start off.  In the previous drafts, the Tigers had spent a large part of their bonus money on a high-profile draft prospect that fell due to signability concerns.  Without Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Rick Porcello, I'd pretty much announce the 2005, 2006, and 2007 drafts as complete failures.  However, the team did their homework, knowing which players deserved the huge bonuses.  I personally think they overpaid for Porcello in particular, but when your top pick is in the starting rotation less than two years after you pick him, especially a prep pitcher, you've done a good job.

As for money, I'm not exactly sure what kind of budget we're looking at for the Tigers this year.  They own the #9, 58, 89, and 120 picks, with every 30 after that.  I think they've probably budgeted somewhere in the $4-5 million range for their first pick, if they need that much.  If they don't use that much, I'd expect a pick or two later that goes significantly over slot, in the same mold as the Cale Iorg and Casey Crosby picks of 2007.  However, that 2007 draft, with its $8 million budget, seems to be a rare expection, and I don't expect nearly that much to be in the budget this year.  $6 million total seems about right to me, maybe a little less.  Let me know if I'm off on that.

The mock draft I published today has USC shortstop Grant Green falling to the Tigers at the #9 slot.  Even if he's not deserving of that slot in my book, he'll still get significant money, having signed his life over to Scott Boras.  The Tigers, as shown above, aren't afraid to spend money on that top pick, and I expect someone similar to Green, perhaps Donovan Tate or another top-tier prep pitcher, to be their first pick.  It's always best player available, but where other teams have certain players off their boards due to signability, the Tigers usually don't.  Past the first pick, I expect more college players to filter in.  Brandon Hamilton's the only non-college pick past the first round that Chadd has made in the first five he's had, so don't expect much change.  Jason Stoffel could be of interest, maybe Joe Kelly and Mike Belfiore, as well.  Del Howell of Alabama seems to be a name I could link with them, too.  Maybe it's just me.

All bonus information came from BA, and writeups on draft status going into the draft were a mixture of BA and PG.  Go to their sites for draft coverage.  They're awesome.

What do you guys think?  What do the Tigers do?

 

Previous draft previews:

Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers

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Tigers

In terms of the draft budget, I see them leaning more toward the 2006/2007 drafts because the farm system has been gutted of talent due to trades and the graduation of Porcello/Perry. The 2008 draft I think, reflected this with drafting “safer” players with lesser ceilings. It also reflected the HORRIBLE bullpen the big league squad featured in 2008. As for those saying the Tigers will be forced to significantly cut back on their spending in the draft, this may be true, but I personally don’t see it happen. Owner Mike Ilitch, as we have seen, has in recent drafts understood the importance of TALENT, and he pays accordingly. To that end, even an $8 million budget (unlikely) is a drop in the bucket compared to FA contracts, and I think Mr. Ilitch realizes this. Also, while season tickets plummeted nearly 50% from the beginning of 2007, this year was still (and someone correct me if I’m off) one of the Tigers top season ticket draws in recent memory. Their big league payroll is still high, but it has lessened by around 5% from last year. While not turning a profit (who is), I do not think the Tigers are hemorrhaging money as some believe. So on to their draft:

I think you’ll see them take a HS pitcher with #9, as they’ve been on most of the top guys this spring. I don’t see them taking Grant Green, even if he is still on the board, because there is better value in the HS arms, and they could come cheaper (more on that below). But IF Tanner Scheppers is there, there is no question in my mind that he is the pick, seeing as Dave Dombroski and David Chadd LOVE power arms.

I think this draft is right in Dombroski’s/Chadd’s respective wheelhouses. Lots of power arms, from both sides, from both the HS and college ranks. Again, the Tigers have apparently been on quite a few HS arms this spring, and this could be a theme of their draft — high upside power arms. In this regard, while the 2008 draft was geared toward rejuvenating a depleted system with playable guys, I think this year they look to re-stock the high ceiling players. One other player of note is Luke Bailey, who the Tigers supposedly liked, and could fall to the second due to his injury.

In all, I can see the Tigers going slot at #9 given that there are a lot of good, signable arms in that range. I can therefore see them going over slot in the later rounds (a la 2007) where some of those power arms will likely fall due to signability.

by CW11 on May 4, 2025 10:04 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

1 need

Short comment for now- it’s exam week, sorry- but the Tigers have almost certainly have to go position player here unless someone with a really special arm falls. Our system is too weak to have a major question mark who can blow out his arm in a year and cost 3/4ths of a draft., and we, quite honestly, have no legitimately good position prospects outside of Cale Iorg, Wilkin Ramirez and maybe Alex Avilla if you’re feeling particularly generous.

I see us going power arms in later rounds, sure. But this first pick is going to be a position player if Grant or Tate is left on that board.

by demondeaconsbaseball on May 4, 2025 10:11 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes

Ha, yes I completely disagree with the position player pick. I mainly do not see a position player worthy of #9 PROVIDED THAT Tate and Ackely don’t fall — and I don’t think they will. Green I just don’t see — too many question marks with the bat. Also, you could argue that position players were equally weak last year, and the Tigers responded with 4 straight relievers.

by CW11 on May 4, 2025 10:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree...

before this season i felt green’s bat was similar to a college longoria or tulo… not ridiculous numbers but in terms of his conference it was pretty good… but now who knows… just too many questions… i think he would still be a great pick if he slid to the middle/end of the first round…

by gorilla_baller on May 5, 2025 2:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's questions with Green

But it’s also possible he’s just having a bad season. Given all the hype around him entering this year, it would be easy to see him making us all look stupid a couple years down the road.

As far as Ackley goes, I’d kill to have him fall to #9. Even though he’s a UNC product (ugh), he’s a fine hitter and would be great patrolling RF or LF in Comerica. I’m drooling over an OF of Wilkin Ramirez, Curtis Granderson and Dustin Ackley right now…

by demondeaconsbaseball on May 5, 2025 2:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Heh

Partially a philosophy difference, I suppose. Unless the pick is a really good one (like Porcello), I’d prefer to avoid using a premium pick on a player that could very easily flame out. I prefer drafting college pitchers and position players as opposed to HS pitchers in almost all situations.

by demondeaconsbaseball on May 5, 2025 2:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

Please let us get Green. We start Adam Everett and Ramon Santiago at SS. These two are at most a 1 1/2 yr solution.

by ChalupaCabrera on May 5, 2025 3:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Green

Unless the Tigers have truly been salivating hard after a number of high school arms, Green seems to fit the Chadd mold. Very highly heralded big-college guy, toolsy, who many projected to go higher prior to the draft, falling in their laps. But - if they do have a GUY, they’ll pop him, damn the torpedoes.

by ofsticksandbats on May 5, 2025 7:51 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2005 Draft

I was a pretty big fan of it I suppose in hindsight. I know the analysis is done on value/needs and relative to other players on the board and their draft value, but the 2005 class might produce a slew of potentially solid players. Casper Wells is a deep deep sleeper, Holliman is at least decent, Larish if given full time ABs would probably be a .270 25 85 guy, Thomas when healthy can be a .290-.295 hitter, and Joyce has shown pop as a lefty power hitter. I wish we would have drafted Kershaw, but then again Miller was supposed to be closer to reach the majors and contribute.

by ChalupaCabrera on May 5, 2025 3:13 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not bad...

But Larish is more of a .250/.350/.450 hitter in the majors, and I don’t see Clete Thomas as much more than a 4th OF/2nd tier starting CF. Hollimon will land up being a solid replacement for Polanco next year though, so it’s not horrible.

by demondeaconsbaseball on May 5, 2025 3:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It was a solid draft.

Chadd was able to get a number of players that have climbed their way to at least being close to the Majors, but beyond Maybin that class lacks anyone who is a Major League starter, either pitchers or position players. That’s nice and all, but that’s why it wasn’t a great draft, just a solid one. Considering they’ve traded away Maybin, Badenhop, Whelan, Claggett, and Joyce, and have gotten value for them back, then you have to consider it a successful draft, just not one of the top tier drafts.

by Andy Seiler on May 5, 2025 4:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Andy

I loved this, am I’m not even a Tigers fan. Will you be doing this for my Giants as well?

Overall, what do you think of Chadd?

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!

by Lyle on May 6, 2025 10:04 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, I'm doing it for every team.

I’m hoping I can get them all in before the draft. It might be wishful thinking, but I’ll do my best. The Phillies are up next, and that’s a confusing venture.

Overall, I think Chadd is overly reliant on his first round picks. For that matter, I’d venture a guess that he has almost no control over those picks, just input. For that reason, I’d say he’s in the bottom half of scouting directors in the league. That could be due to the fact that his hands are tied sometimes in terms of finances, as he can’t go overslot often when a huge chunk of his budget is tied up on a first rounder. But he just hasn’t found value in terms of both slotting and results. His best draft was 2005, and I personally think he have hit a career low last year. One more questionable draft and I think he may be one of the next scouting directors to get the boot, though that’s not going on any personal information I have. Just the fact that it’s going to be his fifth draft with Detroit. He needs to be getting better, not worse.

by Andy Seiler on May 6, 2025 11:16 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, and I also blame his scouts.

He obviously trusts them, and they’ve let him down more often lately. I don’t think they’re all bad, but they just need to turn in more consistency.

by Andy Seiler on May 6, 2025 11:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks

I appreciate your insights and opinions. Looking forward to your Sabean analysis.

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!

by Lyle on May 6, 2025 11:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs


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