The Recent History of Shortstops, Part Five

by John Sickels on Feb 27, 2026 3:39 PM EST Comment 7 comments

The Recent History of Shortstop Prospects, Part Five

As I get older, I've grown less ideological in most regards, less fond of Grand Unification type theories, especially where human behavior is concerned. I find it easier to say "I don't know" than I did when I was younger. The older readers will understand; you young whippersnappers will learn in time, assuming you continue to grow intellectually and don't lock yourself into an ideological rigidity.

So assessing this mass of shortstop prospect data, I offer some observations rather than hard-and-fast rules. I don't think any of this is particularly earth-shattering.

One: Strike zone judgment is obviously very important in player success. Many of the busts were guys who couldn't control the zone.

Two: A low strikeout rate seems to be helpful...some players who didn't do much in the lower minors but who later improved/broke out showed low strikeout rates even before the production picked up. Other studies have shown that walks by themselves don't necessarily carry forward to the majors, but a strong BB/K/AB ratio is a positive marker.

Three: High school shortstops drafted in the first round purely on tools but with spotty skills have trouble. This makes sense. Those with a measure of polish to go with the tools (Jeter, the Uptons) have more success. Again, nothing counterintuitive there.

Four: Beware the "good glove, questionable bat" guy. . .though if they keep the strikeouts low and are young enough, they have a chance.

Add your own observations and conclusions.

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Triunfel

A lot of the things you’ve learned remind me of Triunfel. He doesn’t have the best OBP, but he has a good BB/K ratio. Also, he isn’t an “All glove, no bat” kind of player. He just turned 19 yesterday, so this upcoming season would be the equivalent of an American kid’s second year in the minors. Triunfel is likely to be spending at least half the season in AA (I would like to see him sent back to A+ for the first half of the season, personally). I think that is pretty good.

I never hear that he is bad with the glove, yet everyone is assuming he is going to have to move off SS because of his size. That may end up happening, but it may be a few years as well. Lots of people though A-Roid was going to have to move too because he was so big for a SS, and he would still be playing SS today if not for Jeter being on the same team.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 28, 2026 4:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Questionable Bat

Beware the “good glove, questionable bat” guy

I’d guess that a player’s strong glove can only outweigh his weak bat in a low-offense era, and we just haven’t had one of those in a long time. Could it be that some scouts are still echoing older conventional wisdom from a bygone age?

by FlipYrWhig on Feb 28, 2026 4:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Five

Five: Conversely, a “good bat, questionable glove” guy will always find a spot in one position or another.

by DrEasy on Mar 1, 2026 12:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is quickly becoming not true.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 2, 2026 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Justin Jackson

The issues with his K/BB ratio are what might spell the end of his career. He needs to make more contact or he will not even be a backup infielder for teams, even considering defense. The upper minors is littered with good defensive middle infielders that make contact with no pop and have good defense.

Of course it seems like reducing K% and having a decent walk rate is key to being a regular with the exception of a few special players( Dunn and Howard). Beware, Greg Halman, Mike Stanton, Cody Johnson, Michael Burgess, Wilkins Ramirez, Corey Brown, and Brandon Hicks.

by tdot mariner fan on Mar 1, 2026 2:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Of course . . .

What’s a decent walk rate? What’s an “acceptable” K/BB ratio?

Let’s borrow your example of Justin Jackson. You say the “issues with his K/BB ratio” are the big problem, then you say he needs to make more contact. I won’t argue with the second, but the first isn’t a problem at all . . .he walked 62 times last year in 454 ABs. If anything, he might be TOO passive (also known as “Hermida Syndrome”) and letting himself get into bad counts. Walks aren’t about making contact at all . . .and yeah, I know that sounds intuitive.

I’ve been debating this question . . .if you had two young prospects at a low level of the minors who each played 500 ABs, and Prospect A walks 25 times and strikes out 90 times, and Prospect B walks 50 times and strikes out 140 times, which ratio do you find more promising for future development?

by mrkupe on Mar 1, 2026 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Decent walk and k rate

A decent walk rate in my opinion is something around 10 % of your PAs, for K rate, it should be under 30% of all PAs. I do not think there is a consensus for an acceptable K/BB ratio yet because the K/BB ratio can be skewed for really aggresive or patient hitters. Ideally a K/BB ratio of under 2/1 to 1.5/1 is good in my opinion.

Your question is one that really interests me. My answer as of now is probably why I question Justin Jackson’s ability to hit at higher levels. I would prefer Prospect A over prospect B because I think that players with that ratio adjust better to higher levels. Using your numbers, Propsect B walks at about a 9 % of the time in 550 PAs. However, this is the low minors here where you generally find more “throwers” than usual, simply put, more pitchers with less control usually means more walks. The K % is around 26%, which is not terrible but could indicate all sorts of issues such as swinging at outside pitches, slow bat speed, trouble with breaking pitches etc.. .

It would take an intensive study of low A prospects K/BB ratios and that of MLB players when they were in the minors to see any results. The funny thing is, the first propsect that I thought with prospect B’s number was Eli Iorg. He is a player that has great tools like Jackson, but his struggles show how walks rates at low levels are hard to improve on and how K rates are also hard to reduce as you go up. These rates are not all telling which is why scouting reports are important, as you mentioned with Hermida. I mean look at Kevin Youkilis’ rates in the minors and majors, his K/BB rates are almost exactly reversed. I guess this is the long way to say there is not black/white answer to your question.

by tdot mariner fan on Mar 1, 2026 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs