My understanding is that tRA is a really crappy stat for projection, like WPA. I was referring to DiPS theory in general. A very fair portion of Jackson’s FB’s were IFFB’s last season, and that’s a very different kind than the sort that can drive in a runner.

I don’t see a dropped K-Rate, in concert with added fastballs and massive drops in all command stats as a lateral move. I see it as a conscious decision to pitch to contact. I’ve already stated that I have some concern that the Rays defense did cover for him some, but that is a part of learning to pitch to contact : relying on your defense. And, since OldProspects just posted…

Yes, it is a strategy. It helps you cut down on your pitch count, thereby throwing more innings, saving the bullpen, and helping the rest of the team. Placed in front of a defense as good as the Rays’, it made sense for Jackson (who really seems to only have a semblance of control on one pitch - his fb) to focus on just trying to get that pitch over the plate as often as possible and letting the defense do the work.

This post is fraught with cliches, but I do believe them to be applicable in this case, as is the cliche baseball thinking of “14W’s, 183 IP, a 95MPH fastball, and a former top prospect making big progress at 24 is a good thing”.

ZiPS odds for how good a SP he will be next year:

ERA %
Top 1/3 19
Mid 1/3 35
Bot 1/3 46

He’s more likely than not going to be in the top 2/3 of SP next year. Hardly “garbage,” though also not great. He also still has some breakout potential.

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There’s more to life than K:BB. Do you really think if he goes out 19 times and allows 3 runs or fewer he’s has “no value” - if you do you are an idiot and haven’t the first clue.

if you actually watched those games you would have seen a very good pitcher. Obviously you didn’t so you’ll have to rely on being a stat geek. It’s not like those were the ONLY 4 games he was good in this year, they were just 4 early season games he looked quite good - but it won’t fit on a spreadsheet so I’m basically talking to a wall.

for one. Howell would do just fine as well - 92 K’s in 89 innings w/ 2.22 ERA - not so sure that fastball is a mere 85MPH…

everything you said there - and I would normally agree, I just think Jackson is possibly an anomoly. I don’t think I ever said it’s even fairly certain that he can break out - I just think he has a better chance than his past yearly stats suggest. Sticking my nose out against the grain of stats so sharply is not something I normally do - and it’s pretty petty of an arguement to begin with. I realize that even complete shitbums like Zach Duke and Gustavo Chacin will have games where they look like world beaters - but I think what I saw with Edwin was different. I don’t know what else I can say other than we’ll see what happens - I do like my chances of winning that bet with marcello.

You seem to be saying that since there are clearly some worse pitchers than Jackson who pitched last year, he must be above replacement. I never said Jackson was the worst starter in baseball. I’m sure he wasn’t. Lots of below replacement guys get called up for a while because of injuries or whatever else. But Jackson did get 31 starts. It’ll be hard to find many guys who started that many games who are worse.