Cincinnati Reds System Discussion Thread
I am hard at work on the Boston Red Sox system. The next organization will be the Cincinnati Reds, so use this thread to discuss Reds prospects.
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Underrated system
Maybe I see the depth thats here more because I cover the system on a daily basis, but the system, despite graduating its top 4 prospects from last year (Cueto, Bailey, Votto and Bruce) still have a whole slew of talent in the system.
My Top 20 Reds prospects:
1.Yonder Alonso
2.Neftali Soto
3.Drew Stubbs
4.Todd Frazier
5.Chris Valaika
6.Devin Mesoraco
7.Kyle Lotzkar
8.Zach Stewart
9.Danny Dorn
10.Juan Francisco
11.Juan Duran
12.Daryl Thompson
13.Carlos Fisher
14.Josh Roenicke
15.Zach Cozart
16.Yorman Rodriguez
17.Ramon Ramirez
18.Chris Dickerson
19.Adam Rosales
20.Ryan Hanigan
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 12:46 PM EST
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Daryl Thompson
You really don’t have him higher than that?
Go Pirates!!!
by cool hand Charlie on
Nov 30, 2025 1:17 PM EST
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I don't
With his injury history and size, I think he may have a few years as a starter, but is likely to wind up in the bullpen as a very good reliever.
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 1:32 PM EST
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Interesting comment re:Thompson
I’m not sure that you’re right, but I’m interested anyway. My other question is about Kyle Lotzkar - you seem to be relatively high on him. What are your thoughts, etc?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Nov 30, 2025 2:24 PM EST
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Tons of potential
Fastball in the 90-95 MPH range and has a very good curveball. He had a late season injury where he has a small fracture in his elbow, but its not looked at as a big deal right now and he should be back and 100% next spring. Rough mechanics, but he has absolutely electric stuff and at age 18 he struck out 50 batters in 37.2 innings in the Midwest League.
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 2:41 PM EST
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Pretty nice list
Thompson and Juan Duran should be up a couple slots, but a pretty accurate list
by giantsloseagain on
Nov 30, 2025 1:30 PM EST
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Question
Is Homer Bailey still considered a rookie?
by demondeaconsbaseball on
Nov 30, 2025 1:47 PM EST
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No
He isn’t. He is over the 50ip requirement.
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 1:50 PM EST
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Won the Reds instructional league MVP
Apparently he looked really good there.
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 3:13 PM EST
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re
very nice, he was one of my favorite prospects out of the draft last year
by dchurg on
Nov 30, 2025 3:29 PM EST
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My list
1. Yonder Alonso A
2. Drew Stubbs B+
3. Neftali Soto B+
4. Todd Frazier B+
5. Chris Valaika B+
6. Daryl Thompson B
7. Devin Mesoraco B
8. Zach Stewart B
9. Juan Francisco B-
10. Juan Duran B-
11. Kyle Lotzkar B-
12. Josh Roenicke B-
13. Zach Cozart B-
14. Yorman Rodriguez B-
15. Danny Dorn C+
16. Ramon Ramirez C+
17. Chris Dickerson C+
18. Adam Rosales C+
19. Ryan Hanigan C+
20. Carlos Fisher C+
by Dave from Louisville on
Nov 30, 2025 2:51 PM EST
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Matt Maloney and Dallas Buck
I left them off, but I see them as C+ types.
by Dave from Louisville on
Nov 30, 2025 8:41 PM EST
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Grades
Lower pretty much everyone by one or two grades.
by supermets on
Nov 30, 2025 8:56 PM EST
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I think your ratings are slightly high (from #1 to 8) - Alonso is a B+ at best simply because of his lack of ABs.The potential is there but the hard/objective stats are lacking.
Otherwise a pretty good list - order wise.
I would rank them as such:
1. Yonder Alonso B+
2. Drew Stubbs B+
3. Kyle Lotzkar B+
4. Todd Frazier B
5. Neftali Soto B
6. Daryl Thompson B
7. Matt Maloney B
8. Zach Stewart B-
9. Juan Francisco B-
10. Juan Duran B-
11. Devin Mesoraco B-
12. Josh Roenicke B-
13. Zach Cozart B-
14. Yorman Rodriguez B-
15. Dallas Buck C+
16. Ramon Ramirez C+
17. Chris Valaika C+
18. Adam Rosales C+
19. Sean Watson C+
20. Alex Smit C+
by frenchredsox on
Nov 30, 2025 3:24 PM EST
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Grades are still too high
Stubbs and Lotzkar are B at best. I would put them at B-. A lot of the guys should be one grade down.
by supermets on
Nov 30, 2025 3:40 PM EST
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Dallas Buck
Nice pick up whose status got lost as he was a piece of the Dunn trade.
by frenchredsox on
Nov 30, 2025 3:25 PM EST
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i know that you really like the reds, etc.
but how about waiting and seeing how yorman does this year before you anoint him the no. 1 prospect.?
by psugator on
Nov 30, 2025 8:54 PM EST
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Reds are definitely bats heavy
Does anyone see them trading some of them for arms?
Something like Vin Mazzaro and lower level guy for Todd Frazier? Would seem to make sense for both sides.
Thoughts?
by Bud Light on
Nov 30, 2025 6:12 PM EST
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Reds are bat heavy
but aren’t really light on pitching. Just in AAA alone the rotation could consist of Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson, Ramon Ramirez, Matt Maloney and Sam Lecure. The Reds aren’t exactly hurting for starters right now because after that they still have Pedro Viola, Dallas Buck, Kyle Lotzkar, Travis Wood, Jordan Smith, Evan Hildenbrandt and Juan Carlos Sulbaran behind them.
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 7:25 PM EST
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Juan Francisco
I can’t believe in some of these lists that Juan Francisco is down at nine or ten. I think Francisco is going to be a complete stud and is KILLING the ball in the DWL.
by sheetskout on
Nov 30, 2025 7:14 PM EST
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He is....
but unless he learns to walk some more, or strikeout about half as often, his OBP won’t be enough to make up for his power.
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 7:20 PM EST
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Drew Stubbs a B+? egads....
I dont see much depth or useful parts in the Reds system other than the top couple prospects. I like Frazier and Valaika more than Stubbs, but other than that their minors system is down because of the graduations. Stubbs is way overrated and this time next year I can see him as a C+ at best.
by Looneyt0on on
Nov 30, 2025 9:32 PM EST
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Useful parts?
Pitching - Daryl Thompson, Carlos Fisher, Josh Roenicke, Zach Stewart, Robert Manuel, Matt Maloney, Ramon Ramirez, Sam Lecure and Pedro Viola aren’t useful parts? And thats only counting the guys who were in AA/AAA last season (excepting Stewart).
Background info on guys you might not know much about: Robert Manuel throws 90-93 MPH with lots of movement and very good command as well as an above average change up and a slider and he absolutely dominated AA this year. Ramon Ramirez has shuffled back and forth from the rotation and bullpen, but has a plus change up and a fastball in the 88-91 MPH range and has hit 96 MPH out of the bullpen when he was in there. Pedro Viola is a lefty who tops out at 95 MPH with an above average slider that is plus at times who is being shifted into the rotation next year. Sam Lecure works 87-91 MPH with an average curve and average change up, but knows how to work hitters, profiles as a swingman type.
Hitting - Danny Dorn, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey, Sean Henry, Adam Rosales and Ryan Hanigan aren’t useful parts? Again, all guys in AA or higher last year.
Then you throw in the high upside guys like Alonso, Frazier, Soto, Stubbs, Lotzkar, Mesoraco, Sulbaran, Y Rodriguez, Duran and you are trying to sell me as not much depth or useful parts?
You are going to need to bring something else to the table if you are going to try and say the Reds don’t have depth or useful parts outside of a few top prospects, because its just not close to true.
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 10:32 PM EST
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Good Stuff Doug
I think the Reds’ farm has a number of solid prospects. Sure, they lack many future stars - Alonso is the only top prospect among them. But, they do not need big name prospects, they just graduated: Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and do not forget about young pitcher Edison Volquez. Drew Stubbs is at worst an average centerfielder, and Valaika, Frazier, Thompson, among others, will also be able to help out the big league team pretty soon. What the Reds lack in top prospects I feel they make up for in depth of high-mid level prospects.
by byronlhsdrmr on
Nov 30, 2025 10:39 PM EST
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Yes, few useful parts.
Thompson was good last year. Then you listed a glut of 24-26 year old middle relievers. Matt Maloney who was mediocre at best in AAA and Sam Lecure is bleh. Not exactly a list of useful major league parts but I’m sure some will eventually get cups of coffee in the Reds bullpen.
I think Dorn may be decent. Dickerson is 26 and hit about 200 points higher than his career OPS. Heisey may get to be a bench player and Heisey, Henry and Rosales are nothing special at all. C prospects. Hanigan is 28 already, he’s organizational fodder. In a good farm system, these prospects never even get mentioned outside of Thompson. I definitely don’t see the “whole slew of talent in the system” that you do. If it was your goal to show me a few possible bullpen arms the Reds might have in 2-3 years, then you achieved your goal.
by Looneyt0on on
Nov 30, 2025 11:00 PM EST
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So
Middle relievers are certainly useful parts. You also neglected to even touch on a guy like Dorn, Viola or Ramirez (both of whom can be starters).
Of course, I also didn’t list ANY talent below AA in that entire thing. That leaves guys like Travis Wood, Jordan Smith, Neftali Soto, Devin Mesoraco, Juan Carlos Sulbaran, Yorman Rodriguez, Juan Duran, Kyle Lotzkar, Zach Cozart or Juan Francisco who weren’t even discussed at all.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 1:10 AM EST
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Hey dougdirt
What’s the word on Matt Maloney? I drafted him a couple of years back hoping he could be a decent #4 type starter. Is that too much to hope for? His numbers at every level have been good, and his park and luck adjusted numbers look fine too. Is this guy gonna get a shot with Cincinnati in 2009?
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 1, 2025 1:58 AM EST
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Maloney
I am more bullish on him than others. I see him as a #5 type of guy. He works up in the zone a lot and pays for it with the longball. If he goes to another organization, he could have more success, but I don’t see his stuff working out so well in Cincinnati.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 12:03 PM EST
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I said...
“I dont see much depth or useful parts in the Reds system other than the top couple prospects.”, not that there weren’t any useful parts. Middle relievers are useful parts, but how many do the Reds need? You mentioned 6 of them I believe.
I also said, "I think Dorn may be decent. " Pedro Viola will be 26 and had a 4.59 ERA repeating AA ball. Gives up more than a hit per inning and pitched poorly in the DWL after pitching bad in the AFL last year. Why would I bother? Ramon Ramirez is 26 and pitched better in the majors in his 27 IP than any time other than 14 IP in AAA in 2007. With a staff of Harang, Volquez, Arroyo and Cueto, unless he beats out Homer Bailey or there’s injuries he probably could end up in the pen as well. If you want to consider that ‘depth/useful parts’ then ok.
Talent below AA is nice to have, but none of those are sure things and most aren’t within 1-2 years of the majors. Neftali Soto is one of their top prospects, so he falls into my “top couple prospects” that I excluded from their lack of depth/useful parts. I’m probably understating their useful parts, just as you’re overstating them. I’m sure a few will end up being useful, but we could see a lot of other names on the top 20 next year that aren’t there this year that we’ll debate about their usefulness next year. Always how it is with prospects.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 11:49 AM EST
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Viola
Well I guess because Viola has only been pitching since he was 22, is a lefty starter with a 95 MPH fastball and a plus slider is probably the reason you should bother. As for giving up hits….. did you see his BABIP against this year? It was .389 for crying out loud. The guy strikes out a high number of guys.
As for Ramon Ramirez, yeah, he is a tad old, but the guy is a solid #4 starter. The fact that he is likely blocked doesn’t change the fact. The Reds could always trade him and get talent back for him.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 12:06 PM EST
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I didnt bother, because he....
is going to be 26, had a 4.59 ERA repeating AA ball, gives up more than a hit per inning and pitched poorly in the DWL. Maybe if he wasn’t so hittable, he wouldn’t be making opposing hitters look like Ted Williams when they put it in play. He’s just not a good pitcher yet, but you make a case for all Reds prospects so this is nothing different.
Exactly where is Ramon Ramirez a “solid #4 starter”?? He’s had all of 4 starts and 27 major innings. Your posts are getting more and more Rose colored by the reply.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 8:23 PM EST
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Viola
He was “repeating” AA only in the sense that he spent a very short period of time there in 2007 after being promoted through 3 levels that year. Viola also did a lot better in 2008 after he was moved from the bullpen to the rotation in AA; his July/August numbers were noticeably better than his earlier stats.
And who knows what his AFL numbers mean, he could be on orders to just throw a specific pitch repeatedly or something. He still had a solid K/9 and K/BB ratio. Given the ridiculous offensive numbers put up in the AFL this year and the small sample size, I wouldn’t read too much into that. Since lefty starter prospects with that type of fastball velocity are so rare, I think it’s fair for Reds fans to have some excitement about him.
by jibs on
Dec 2, 2025 9:11 AM EST
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He had a great 2007...
moving up 3 levels, but got hit pretty hard in 2008 and will be 26 in June. He’s the typical case of once a player moves up to the higher levels he gets hit around. If he adjusts to it, he might become something decent but if not he’s just minor league fodder. I don’t see much reason to be excited over a relief pitcher turned starter that is old for the league (yes, 25 is old for AA). As John would say, he’s a C prospect with some upside.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 2, 2025 9:34 AM EST
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you really dislike Stubbs, huh?
you NEVER post on this site. you never post to any sites………..but stubbs’ name comes up and you have to say something. i actually agree with you but what about stubbs gets you so incensed?
by psugator on
Nov 30, 2025 11:20 PM EST
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Nothing about Stubbs...
gets me incensed. I just don’t view him as the player that others see him as. A B+ player is a future all star in my eyes and Stubbs won’t be that. I’ve posted on this site before and on other sites, so I dunno where you came up with that comment from. Go crush on Nick Hagadone :)
by Looneyt0on on
Nov 30, 2025 11:24 PM EST
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i think the strength of the Reds system
is the depth in the high minors. Alonso, Frazier, Stubbs, Valaika, Stewart, Dorn, Thompson, Roenicke, Ramirez, Fisher, Dickerson, Rosales, and Hanigan could all realistically be in the majors at some time next year. of course, only a handful of those guys have the potential to be above average major leaguers (and only Alonso really has the potential to be the caliber of the Big 4 from last year), but the rest make up a very solid (and cheap) bottom half of a roster. when you have guys like this filling in the holes it allows you to spend 20 mil on a superstar next offseason.
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Nov 30, 2025 10:24 PM EST
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And thats just the upper minors
The lower minors seem to have a nice group of guys there too, just ones that need to show some more to open more eyes, but its certainly loaded with a lot of guys with a lot of potential.
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 10:33 PM EST
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Everyone has low minors with guys with lots of potential...
but overall, the Reds system is middle of the pack. With graduations, it’s not that bad of a system and new guys will develop and fill in gaps but realistically, how many of the guys you listed in your original reply to my post would be in the Rays/Red Sox top 20? Not many at all, if any at all. They’d all probably be in the Mets/Giants top 20 though so it just depends on the system.
by Looneyt0on on
Nov 30, 2025 11:08 PM EST
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I’m not sure I’d put the mets on the same tier as the giants in terms of depth or high impact players.
by zeisenbe on
Nov 30, 2025 11:11 PM EST
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I was talking about overall...
the Mets system isn’t that good at all in my opinion.
by Looneyt0on on
Nov 30, 2025 11:14 PM EST
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Yes, he was saying
That the Giants’ system IS all that good
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Nov 30, 2025 11:40 PM EST
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Well, then....
my bad on what he was saying. I don’t see the Giants as having much depth after the potential impact players, which is why I mentioned them. When you have people mentioning Travis Ishikawa, a 25 year old, as the 6th best Giants prospect then I question their depth. I see the Giants system similar to the Reds, which is why I mentioned them.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 8:56 AM EST
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I see your point
I guess because the Giants top 5 is so much stronger than the Reds, they might be a top-10 team while the Reds are more in the middle of the pack
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Dec 1, 2025 2:47 PM EST
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Not everyone
I would like to see a bunch of other teams that can match a Lotzkar, Soto, Duran, Rodriguez, Sulbaran group. There are some, yes, but not a ton.
Lotzkar dominated at age 18 with a 90-95 MPH fastball and a really good curve against players that were much older than he was.
Soto pretty much did the same thing.
Duran and Rodriguez would likely be in 20 other teams top 10’s, easily.
Sulbaran was basically valued as a mid 2nd round pick and was paid like one. Yeah, other teams probably can match him, but he is still a solid prospect that warrants talking about.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 1:17 AM EST
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You could go through...
every teams minor league system and find a few guys that played very well in low A to A and have promise. Pick a few teams and it wouldn’t be that hard to go through and find players that have potential.
Lotzkar pitched well, but I wouldnt say he dominated. Yeah I know he K’d 50 in 37 IP, but he also walked 24 in those 37 IP and averaged a little over 3 2/3 IP per start so teams never saw him a 3rd time (a 2nd time in some cases). He also has a low ground ball rate and a mid 3 ERA, so I wouldn’t say that’s domination.
Soto walked 22 times in 435 plate appearances so far and hasn’t seen better pitching yet.
Duran would be 20 other teams top 10? Juan Duran? The Juan Duran that put up a 224/340/336/676 line? Yeah he’s 17, but he’s 4-5 years away from the minors. He’s a top 10 guy in a poor system perhaps, but not 20 other teams.
Rodriguez and Sulbaran haven’t even played a game in the US, so excuse me if I hold my enthusiasm until they actually play.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 9:59 AM EST
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Sure
You could go through every teams system and find guys who have done well in low levels, but can you find guys who hit like Soto? I am going to say no. A few teams have guys of that caliber, but not many. How many teams have the upside of guys like Duran an Rodriguez? Not many. As for Duran’s numbers, I don’t really think they matter all that much. He was the youngest player in the league, has tools galore and played through an injury all year. 16 year olds that sign 2 million dollar contracts are going to be top 10 prospects in most systems the year after they sign those contracts.
As for Rodriguez and Sulbaran…. its called scouting. The guys have what they have. It makes them good to very good prospects.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 12:10 PM EST
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Pick a team...
that you think doesn’t have a guy like Soto and I’ll probably be able to find one. Many teams have guys with high upsides that haven’t done anything yet. You’re overrating the Reds prospects. Nah, numbers don’t matter, it’s not like baseball is a statistical game or anything like that. You make scouting sound like its an exact science. Guys miss all the time with plenty of skills. Brien Taylor should be elected to the Hall of Fame any day now if being a very good prospect translated to much.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 5:59 PM EST
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You keep saying
That many teams have guys like Soto that haven’t done anything yet. Its one thing to say that about a guy like Juan Duran or Yorman Rodriguez, but Soto has spent a season and a half in the US after being a 3rd round draft pick and has done nothing but destroy the baseball in his career to the tune of .327/.360/.522. His scouting reports match up perfectly to his stats and that doesn’t happen all too often at a young age.
As for your Brien Taylor argument, that is just idiotic. Brien Taylor had a severe arm injury as a pitcher, and he did it before surgeries were as advances as they are today too. Pitchers are a completely different breed from hitters, one arm injury and a pitchers future is very likely in question. For Soto’s scouting reports to change, something strange is really going to have to happen. He doesn’t have a weakness at recognizing pitches, he doesn’t have a weakness making contact, he doesn’t lack power, he doesn’t lack bat speed, he doesn’t show that he can’t hit breaking balls…. none of that. Odds are things like that aren’t going to change.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 6:35 PM EST
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by not doing anything yet I mean...
that he hasn’t done anything at higher levels. He’s got 450 at bats so far. It’s not his fault, he hasn’t gotten there yet. It’s like John says in his book 100 times (or more), “need to see how he performs at higher levels”. Soto is a very solid prospect, who could end up an elite one if he keeps performing. You can find players like that in most farm systems, but not necessarily with the future potential of Soto.
As far as my Brien Taylor comment, it was meant to be absurd. It was in response to your Rodriguez and Sulbaran comment that just having what you have makes them very good prospects. The Reds are paying for their potential, but there’s no guarantee that their potential will translate into performance, like you make it sound like its an exact science.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 8:32 PM EST
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true
but its the near-ML ready talent that should filter onto the 25-man roster over the course of next season that really has me believing that this team is poised to make some strides and soon. guys like Hildebrandt, Sulbaran, Lotzkar, Yorman, Duran, and Soto are all worth noting, but until they prove they can produce against higher levels of competition i’ll reserve real enthusiasm. its the higher level guys that really get my goat a-runnin’.
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Nov 30, 2025 11:14 PM EST
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Soto?
I will give you the other guys need to prove themselves at high levels, although to say they are worth nothing is a little ridiculous. Sulbaran signed for $500,000 last year, Duran and Soto both over $2,000,000. They are certainly worth quite a bit. Lotzkar is a 2007 sandwich pick and Hildenbrandt got 3rd round money in 2007 as a 6th rounder. Still, Soto, unlike the others has shown what he can do for two seasons now. He makes a lot of very hard contact and he does it often. I get the ‘higher level guys are better’ idea, I just don’t buy into it a whole lot. If a guy fits into this group you mentioned, and all but Hildenbrandt fit in that same type of group, then they are certainly worth something.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 1:13 AM EST
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I think there was some confusion here
He said that they’re “worth noting”, not “worth notHing”
by jibs on
Dec 1, 2025 9:40 AM EST
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Soto's BABIP is...
very high. .370, .415 and .364 so far in his minor league career to be exact. I don’t claim to know about him making very hard contact, but I know he swings a lot because he doesn’t walk or K much. He looks good so far, but appears from his stats that he needs to learn better plate discipline. I don’t know if that is correct or not, but if his BABIP comes down to normal levels, then he’s not going to look nearly as good without walking more.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 10:09 AM EST
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Soto's BABIP
is pretty much in line with his LD rates. the kid has enormous power already, and even bigger potential. he broke the amateur record in Puerto Rico for home runs, previously held by Juan Gonzalez. like Doug said above, he does walk a little, but really doesnt need to walk a whole lot to maintain a strong OBP.
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Dec 1, 2025 10:18 AM EST
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Thanks...
like I said I wasn’t too familiar with him. The only part I dont completely agree with is that he doesn’t need to walk a lot to maintain a strong OPB. Unless he’s hitting over .300 on a consistent basis, his OPB won’t be strong. From rookie ball to A ball last year, the difference between his BA and OPB went from .050 and .035 in rookie ball to .018 in A ball. He still has plenty of time to develop though.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 10:33 AM EST
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OBP
Soto shows everything needed to hit over .300 consistently. He has power and doesn’t strike out. Thats going to lead to high batting averages. His plate discipline isn’t a problems. He doesn’t chase pitches too often, he just hits them a lot. I would like to see more walks, but he isn’t Juan Francisco either, who walks similarly, but swings at almost everything because most of the time he can hit it.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 12:12 PM EST
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Amazing...
Swinging at everything doesn’t mean he’s got everything he needs to hit over .300. He hasn’t seen better pitching at higher levels yet, so how you can say he’s got what he needs without him proving it is a nice leap of faith. His BABIP is high. If that goes down there’s not much room for him to hit .300.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 6:03 PM EST
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Wrong
I think you have very little clue how BABIP works and are just regurgitating what you read somewhere about high BABIP’s without understanding what was actually being said.
BABIP is highly correlated to line drive rates and how hard a guy hits the baseball. Soto has shown a high line drive rate and an ability to hit line drives to all fields. Soto puts a lot of baseballs in play, which is going to lead to a higher batting average. He also hits lots of HR’s and projects to continue doing so, which in turn is going to raise his average because HR’s can’t be turned into outs. Guys that hit for power and don’t strike out much hit for good averages.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 6:39 PM EST
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I know how BABIP works.
It’s essentially the batting average of a player when he puts the ball in the field of play. Line drive rates are one thing, but how hard a guy hits the ball does not correlate to BABIP. You can’t even measure how hard someone hits the ball on an average basis. I’d love for you to tell me how its wrong that if his BABIP goes down, that there’s not much room for him to hit .300.
Soto’s worst season BABIP is .364, which is over .020 points higher than the career averages of Roberto Clemente, Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs. Not even considering that he hasn’t seen high A ball, his BABIP is going to go down and when it does, so will his batting average. His batting average was at least .040 points lower than his BABIP, he’s going to have to have a BABIP of at least .340 in the majors to hit .300. Major league average is between .290 and .300. Soto’s a .250-.260 hitter if he’s league average in BABIP.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 7:55 PM EST
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The use of BABIP as a measure of luck is way overated
Just because the BABIP is high does not mean a player is lucky, it may be high because he smokes a ball that infielders can’t get to.
Similiarly if a pitcher always gets batters to hit dripplers to the 3B, he will have a low BABIP.
BABIP is more skill than luck
by Dave from Louisville on
Dec 1, 2025 8:18 PM EST
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Thats fine, but...
You cant expect a players BABIP to stay the same as he progresses from A ball to the majors. Better pitchers and better fielders make it unlikely.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 8:35 PM EST
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Ok
Lets pretend that Soto gets 550 at bats in a season and hits 30 HR (that he has been projected to hit by BA in last years handbook). Lets also assume that he strikes out in 16% of his PA and that he walks 40 times and has 10 other PA with HBP and sac hits to make it a nice even 600 PA.
He would then have 30 HR and 96 strikeouts, which would leave him with 550 AB minus 30 HR minus 96 strikeouts for a total of 424 balls in play. To hit .300 over 550 at bats one would need 165 hits. He already has 30 of them with his HR’s, so he would need 135 hits in 424 balls in play to hit .300. That means he would need a .318 BABIP to get those 135 hits.
With the same scenario for him to hit .310 he would need 171 hits (which actually would mean a .311 average) which would mean just a .333 BABIP.
Not nearly the picture that you paint with your misinformed guess.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 8:29 PM EST
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And...
30 homers is a reach at this point. His power hasn’t developed yet, having hit 13 homers in 435 at bats. Not to say that it wont, but if he only hits 20 homers he’d need to be at .334 to get to .300. Even with 30 homers, he’ll have to be a fair amount over league average in BABIP to hit .300.
Now I know you believe his 30 homer power is going to develop and he’s going to continue hitting line drives at the same rate so this discussion is moot anyway.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 8:55 PM EST
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hey doug
i appreciate your passion and hard work when it comes to posting on this site, etc., but please realize that you are seeing the reds’ system through rose-colored glasses because you are a reds’ fan. i’m not a reds’ fan, nor is looneytoon…..we are looking at the system from a neutral standpoint….you are biased…..just realize your bias when you talk about what great prospects the reds have….that’s all looneytoon was trying to say.
by psugator on
Dec 1, 2025 8:47 AM EST
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Biased?
I think I am just more informed on the Reds prospects than most. Heck, looneytoon noted a few posts ago that he didn’t even know much about Neftali Soto.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 12:14 PM EST
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Where did I say...
that I didn’t know much about Soto? I said he was one of the Reds top prospects, that doesn’t mean I don’t know much about him. And yes, you are biased whether you see it or not. Everyone else sees it. It’s not a bad thing, it just is what it is.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 7:25 PM EST
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You said it
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/30/675865/cincinnati-reds-system-dis#10371004
like I said I wasn’t too familiar with him.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 8:33 PM EST
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Apparently I did say it...
but that was not how it was intended at all. It was meant in reference to him making very hard contact that you mentioned in the post before that. But I’ll take my lumps here and admit I was wrong even though I’m familiar with him as a prospect as my fantasy league goes 360 players deep so I’m familiar with most players on top 20 lists.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 9:04 PM EST
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My top 10
1. Yonder Alonso A- At bats or no at bats this guy can hit - for power, contact, and already has good plate patience
2. Drew Stubbs B I love Stubbs, he is a great defender, with a good arm, and plus speed. He also has some offensive upside.
3. Chris Valaika B- Does not have the tools of Frazier, or Fransisco, but simply knows how to play baseball, and constantly producers. Those are two things you cannot underestimate.
4. Todd Frazier B- Both he and Valaika are going to move off shortstop. Frazier has a bit more upside, but I still like Valaika overall.
5. Darryl Thompson B- Good combination of command, and stuff. I think Thompson could stretch his ability to be a #3 starter.
6. Juan Fransisco B- A very intriguing prospect; Fransisco is a power hitter who strikes out often, but did improve in that area in 2008, from 2007. He is only 21, and could end up being a very good player.
7. Kyle Lotzkar B- Has the most upside of any Reds’ starting prospect. He has great stuff, but is only, lacks command of his secondary pitches, and pitched in only 38 innings last season.
8. Neftali Soto B- Another non-shortstop shortstop; I am not as high on Soto as many others. I do not really have an explanation for that either, he has power potential, but also had a K:BB ratio of 4:1 in 2008 - Yikes! I will say he was playing at a league above his age - due to injuries among Reds third base prospects.
9. Devin Mesoraco C+ Is good defensively, and is a potential 5-tooler on offense. If he gets it together offensively he is going to be a great asset to the organization.
10. Zach Stewart C+ Was just drafted, and has closer type stuff, with a plus fastball, and slider.
How’d I do?
by byronlhsdrmr on
Nov 30, 2025 10:33 PM EST
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Gotta wonder about Soto and Valaika.
Soto
Yeah, he had a 4-1 K/BB rate but he wasn’t out there striking out a lot, he just wasn’t walking a lot and there is a difference between the two types of hitters. Guys not striking out a lot don’t always have to walk much, because they can carry a higher average, thus needing fewer walks to maintain solid OBP. Guys that strikeout more need to extra walks to maintain the same OBP because their averages are going to be lower due to the amount of balls put in play on their behalf.
Valaika
More and more I keep hearing that he is going to stick at SS. Baseball America and BP have both had tidbits on it recently and I have also heard it from a scout who saw him play this year. He isn’t going to be Adam Everrett out there, but he should be able to handle the position.
by dougdirt on
Nov 30, 2025 10:38 PM EST
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i just find it hard to give alonso an A-
Given that fellow draftees matusz and tim beckham only got a B+. If he produces a full season of professional ball he might warrant a higher grade. Still players like Jarrod Parker, Chris Tillman, etc. are all only B+.
by zeisenbe on
Nov 30, 2025 11:08 PM EST
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If Parker, and Tillman are B+'s than I agree Alonso should be downgraded but...
I feel as though both Parker, and Tillman should be A-’s
by byronlhsdrmr on
Nov 30, 2025 11:17 PM EST
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Tillman an A-?
He can’t possibly be an A- right now simply because he has command issues that he needs to work on. at least that’s the collective opinion of him at this point.
by psugator on
Nov 30, 2025 11:22 PM EST
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My list: Top 10 only
1. Yonder Alonso (B)
2. Neftali Soto (B)
3. Drew Stubbs (B-)
4. Chris Valaika (B-)
5. Daryl Thompson (B-)
6. Todd Fraizer (C+)
7. Kyle Lotzkar (C+)
8. Devin Mesoraco ©
9. Zach Cozart ©
10. Juan Duran ©
I am strict with grades, but this seems about right
by giantsloseagain on
Dec 1, 2025 12:14 AM EST
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Lotzkar/Frazier with a C+?
What is the criteria for your grades?
Lotzkar struck out 50 batters in 37.2 innings in a full season league as an 18 year old pitcher with very strong scouting reports and he gets a C+?
Todd Frazier hit everywhere he went and just came off a HWL campaign here he OPS’d .922.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 1:19 AM EST
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Fraizer
he is too old for his level.
Maybe I was too harsh on Lotzkar, but then again, you ARE a reds fan…
by giantsloseagain on
Dec 1, 2025 1:23 AM EST
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Frazier is too old for his level?
Sometimes this ARL stuff is taken a little to far. The guy ended his first full season of pro baseball in High A and will start his second full season in AA. If the guy were 24 and in high A, then sure… but he was drafted in 2007 and is going to start 2009 in AA, I don’t know what you want from the guy really.
As for me being a Reds fan, I don’t know what that has to do with any of the information in this thread or the rating of any of the prospects. I cover the Reds, but I also write and contribute to another minor league website that covers all of the minor leagues.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 1:37 AM EST
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22 yrs old in high A
looks very C+ to me
by giantsloseagain on
Dec 1, 2025 3:13 AM EST
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22 in high A
That’s an age appropriate level.
by aCone419 on
Dec 1, 2025 11:32 AM EST
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Im strict with my grades
it’s not that Im saying Frazier is bad, but I like players to be age 21 or below in high A. Take Villalona, who isn’t in High A yet, but almost is at is not even 18 as an example
by giantsloseagain on
Dec 1, 2025 8:53 PM EST
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That's an absurd example
The whole deal with Villalona is how amazing it is that he has been a child playing in men’s leagues. You could not have picked a more atypical example of how prospects advance.
by aCone419 on
Dec 2, 2025 11:33 AM EST
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So anyone who goes to college
is going to be punished by you severely for choosing that route?
by dougdirt on
Dec 2, 2025 12:07 PM EST
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Anyone who goes to college...
is sort of punished as far as prospect status goes. They have less time to develop than high school kids and need to establish themselves quicker. It’s not to say that I agree with the Villalona example because it’s an extreme example. Simple logic holds that if you have equal production from a 19 year old and a 21 year old at A+ ball, the 19 year old is the better. The older college players have to produce more at the same levels because they are older and have played against that competition in college.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 2, 2025 12:56 PM EST
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Disagree
The minor leagues aren’t always about puting up the best numbers, its about developing as a baseball player so that when you do reach the majors (if you do for that matter) that you are the best player you can be.
As for college players and high school players, the difference is that college players tend to get that later start in the minor leagues than the high schoolers, simply because they are drafted at age 20-22 and often make their full season debut at ages 21-23. That said, they are also very likely to move quicker through the systems because they are older and generally more advanced compared to their high school counterparts when they are in their first minor league season.
ARL is overstated a bit when it comes to college players. Guys who don’t start in AA by the age of 21 are considered ‘old for their league’ by some, which is entirely not the case. They just aren’t teenagers playing way above their age level. The influx of 17 and 18 year olds playing in Low and High A has people thinking that 21 and 22 year olds should be in the major leagues or AAA at the very least. Its a bit crazy sometimes.
Prospect status to me is about having the best career as a major leaguer. If that means a guy gets to the majors when he is 24 years old, but is a 5 time all star when he does get there doesn’t change the fact that he is a better prospect than the guy who gets there at age 22 but is just a mediocre average player. Worry less about age and worry more about what the player will do once they get to the majors.
by dougdirt on
Dec 2, 2025 1:30 PM EST
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Doesnt matter what I say,
you’re going to disagree with it.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 2, 2025 3:07 PM EST
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That really didn't have much to do with you
just the entire ARL thing in general and how sometimes it causes people to give some guys credit they don’t deserve and take away credit from others that do deserve simply because of their age rather than anything to do with their actual baseball skills.
by dougdirt on
Dec 2, 2025 3:09 PM EST
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+1
They guy might not end up in the hall of fame, but that doesn’t diminish his value to the team who drafts him.
by Snake the Jake on
Dec 2, 2025 6:58 PM EST
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Sorry, but...
you used ARL in your comments to me on Lotzkar dominating last year. If you use it 1 way, it’s fair game to be used the other way. An older guy should dominate his level, even if he was drafted only a year ago. I still like Frazier either way.
Being a Reds fan and covering the Reds prospects has made you biased. It’s not a negative comment, as most teams fans are biased toward their players. You just view things differently than non-Reds fans, partially because you want them to succeed more than non-Reds fans and because you see them more often than non-Reds fans. I saw that when you said you’d rather have Stubbs over Travis Snyder. Not to bring that back up again, but it’s just an example.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 10:22 AM EST
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Well
the argument that giantsloseagain makes is pretty poor. Yes, Frazier was 22 this year and he played most of the year in High A. That would put him on a track to be 23 in AA, 24 in AAA, and then 25 when he reaches the majors. There really isn’t too much wrong with that progression. When you look at it from a peak/cost standpoint, the age 25-30 seasons are probably the exact range you’d like to have a player under team control, which is where Frazier would fall. He’s also an advanced enough hitter that he could conceivable hit the bigs in 2010 at some point.
Frazier was ranked as a B+ by John here last year, and was rated as a 4 star prospect and the #2 prospect in the Reds system by BP. There isn’t anything in Frazier’s numbers from this year or his ARL that would drop him down to the C+ that giantsloseagain had him at. That’s what dougdirt was arguing against, and the only defense that giants gave was Frazier is too old for his level, and that 22 in High A looks like a C+ prospect. That’s a very weak argument as it was presented.
The argument for Lotzkar is a bit different here though. Lotzkar was 18 years old in a league where he was facing guys 2-3 years older than him on average, and he pretty well held his own. Yeah, the walk rate was up there higher than you want, but it was a small sample size and he certainly has time to correct that issue. The K rate is impressive since he was facing older/more advanced competition. What I see is a kid with great stuff that needs to refine things a bit and learn to pitch a little more. For a guy who will be 19 next year, that’s not a problem. I guess it depends on what dougdirt would have him graded at and what you would as to whether or not he’s just being a homer. Personally, I’d say he’s a B-/C+ type guy, depending on how much you want to knock him for the walks in 37 innings. Much higher than that is really going too far in the direction of projection-I’m a pretty conservative guy, and while I like Lotzkar I couldn’t go any higher than a B- right now. He definitely has the potential to be rated higher, but it’s too early yet to do so.
I’m not going to disagree that some of the arguments that dougdirt has made come off a bit homerish to me(Neftali Soto being the prime example), but in the case of Frazier and Lotzkar, I think he’s on the money.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 1, 2025 11:08 AM EST
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Fair points.
I was going under the assumption that Frazier was old for the league and did not check his age. My bad for assuming.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 11:58 AM EST
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So....
I dont see much depth or useful parts in the Reds system other than the top couple prospects
However,
I wasn’t too familiar with (Soto).
I was going under the assumption that Frazier was old for the league and did not check his age
How, exactly, did you form that first opinion? Ouiji board?
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on
Dec 1, 2025 3:57 PM EST
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what part of...
“other than the top couple prospects” did you miss? Soto and Frazier are included in that statement.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 1, 2025 9:08 PM EST
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Considering
You don’t know important information about even “the top couple of prospects” (like, you know, their age), what does that say about your opinion on the whole system?
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on
Dec 1, 2025 10:36 PM EST
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So then you know...
the ages of the top couple few prospects for any random team you’re not a fan of off the top of your head? I’m sure the answer is yes here even if it’s not. Sorry, but I don’t memorize the ages of prospects, even of the teams I root for and players on my minor league roster. Someone mentioned Frazier was old for the league and I didn’t check his age. I assumed that someone else was knowledgeable, which was my fault for not looking it up.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 2, 2025 10:02 AM EST
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Eh
I think his point was that it’s not too hard to find the age of a player - MILB has their birthdate, Baseball Cube and (I think) Baseball Reference go even further and match the player’s age to the specific season. So naturally if you’re looking up the guy’s numbers to see what kind of progress he’s making, you have that information readily available.
Frazier WAS a little old for the Midwest League as a college-developed 22 year old (and he certainly showed it), but he was appropriately matched with regard to both age and general development as a player in the FSL.
by mrkupe on
Dec 2, 2025 12:13 PM EST
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That's fine, and...
I already said it was my fault for not looking it up and taking someone else’s word for it. I was looking at Fraziers stats and clicked it closed without looking at his birthdate before I posted. It happens.
I am looking for the age relative to league stats if anyone knows where to find them.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 2, 2025 12:47 PM EST
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No
But you’re the one spouting off about players he doesn’t know, not me. As another example:
Stubbs is way overrated and this time next year I can see him as a C+ at best.
People who have seen him play think he’s a very good ML-level defender right now. BA had him as the #100 prospect in baseball last year, and all he did was advance 3 levels and hit well at all of them. As opposed to you, I can see him not on the list at all next year because he’ll be in Cinci.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on
Dec 2, 2025 1:30 PM EST
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Yeah, I'm spouting off on players I dont know...
I only helped do a stud/dud article for baseballhandyman.com on Stubbs in the last month. But I know nothing about him. His defense is one of the only reasons why he’s where he’s at right now. His power has not developed yet and I wouldn’t call OPS of .772, .798 and .825 at the 3 levels hitting that well. He was 23 at A+ ball, old for the league. The Reds had to move him along and he hit better in AA and AAA in 167 at bats. His BABIP was high (.408 in AA and .377 in AAA) so when it goes back down closer to average he won’t produce as much since he doesn’t have much home run power. I stand by my prediction that he is overrated and that I can see him as a C+ prospect this time next year.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 2, 2025 3:00 PM EST
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While
baseballhandyman.com looks like an interesting read, the fact that you play fantasy baseball with the guy who runs the site and you contributed the “dud” part doesn’t go and really prove anything.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 2, 2025 5:52 PM EST
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Yeah, you're right...
when you help to write an article about a player and analyze his strengths/weaknesses and look at every stat he’s produced you really don’t learn anything about him. Good point.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 2, 2025 11:01 PM EST
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You mean
kind of like dougdirt who writes about Reds prospects? It works both ways man. Just because you wrote that article doesn’t mean you’ve done anymore research into Stubbs than others here. You threw the fact that you helped write the article around like that alone should make your opinion valid, when guys who get paid to do this kind of stuff(you know, writers for BA, BP, John) don’t necessarily hold the same opinion you do. Doesn’t necessarily mean they’re right and you’re wrong, but you writing an article for a buddy’s website doesn’t make you an expert either.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 3, 2025 12:26 AM EST
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Now you changed your argument.
You said, “But you’re the one spouting off about players he doesn’t know, not me.” I backed up my knowledge of Stubbs as a prospect, which you dismissed as “writing an article for a buddy’s website doesn’t make you an expert either.” You then changed your argument to others opinions of Stubbs. This has nothing to do with their opinion. My original comment about Stubbs being overrated had nothing to do with what dougdirt said.
I’m not saying I know more than anyone here nor that just because I helped write an article on Stubbs makes my opinion valid. I never did. I mentioned it only because you claimed I was spouting off on players you thought I knew nothing about, which wasn’t correct.
I stated my opinion that I think Stubbs is overrated and can see him as a C+ prospect next year. I stand by it. Those that disagree are stating their opinion to the contrary. I have no problems with that at all. It would be boring if everyone had the same opinion. The fun part is that it will play out soon enough and we’ll see who is correct.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 3, 2025 9:07 AM EST
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Nope
I didn’t make that argument, another poster did. All I’m saying is, you’ve knocked dougdirt all through this thread, and when someone called you out(rightly or wrongly, not my concern) your rebuttal was that you helped write an article about him, that is on the website of one of your buddies. How is that any different than dougdirt sharing the opinions from his website? You’ve seemed to disagree with him at every step, and mock his opinions because he’s a Reds fan. Well, he does a much better job backing up his arguments, homerish or not, than 90% of people that talk about their teams prospects on this website, myself included.
Doug seems to do the same kind of research you did for your article, but he does it on all Reds prospects, and also talks with scouts about them. If you doing research means you know Stubbs, then I’d say that the work dougdirt does means he knows about Reds prospects. It’s not really much different, you just have differing views, and because he’s a Reds fan you can paint him with the “homer” brush if you disagree and seem to think that is that.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 3, 2025 1:24 PM EST
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Nowhere have I knocked Doug
on his opinions or given a response any harsher than his responses to mine (not saying or implying his responses have been harsh) with the possible exception of saying he’s wearing rose colored glasses on some of his views. He’s overly optimistic about the Reds prospects in my opinion and I’m more neutral. I don’t dislike any of their propects but don’t see some of them reaching the potential that Doug does.
My rebuttal about writing an article on Stubbs was in reponse to being called out that I was spouting off about players I didn’t know. What better way to prove that incorrect? It doesn’t matter where the article appeared, it showed that I’d reasearched Stubbs and have an idea about his prospect status even if you disagree with what I wrote. I have no problem with Doug sharing his opinions from his website. What that has to do with a response I made adressing a comment about not knowing about Stubbs I really have no idea.
Doug’s responses are always well informed and knowledgeable and I have no doubt he researches and knows his Reds prospects. Doesn’t mean I always agree with them. I’m just more skeptical of projection than most, because players more often than not do not reach that projection.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 3, 2025 2:23 PM EST
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At the same time
You showed you knew about Stubbs, but you also freely admitted you didn’t know much about the Reds #2 overall prospect in Neftali Soto, which begs the question of how much do you actually know in order to comment on the system? Thats where this has all stemmed from. After you made about 15 posts back and forth with me you replied that you didn’t know much about Soto, which to me at least brings up your overall knowledge of the system that you said “I dont see much depth or useful parts in the Reds system other than the top couple prospects”.
by dougdirt on
Dec 3, 2025 2:27 PM EST
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I later said that...
It was meant in reference to Soto making very hard contact that you mentioned in the post before that. Not that I didnt know much about him statistically.
I know enough from looking at all of the prospects that they aren’t that deep and that other than having a ton of decent middle relief prospects there’s not too much else there.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 3, 2025 6:58 PM EST
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At what point
do the hitters turn into ‘nothing’? After Valaika? I am very curious as to who doesn’t make the list of guys not considered as depth.
by dougdirt on
Dec 3, 2025 11:39 PM EST
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Where do you get from....
my originial comment of "I dont see much depth or useful parts in the Reds system other than the top couple prospects. " to your comment "at what point do the hitters turn into ‘nothing’ "?
As far as hitters in your top 20 who I’d consider depth right now, I’ll go over your list:
6.Devin Mesoraco - reports I’ve read are that he’s good defensively, but hasn’t hit. .261/.311/.369 is hard to get excited about. Would I consider this depth or the #6 prospect in their system? Not at this point, but like everyone else he’s got time to develop.
9.Danny Dorn - Shown he can hit at pretty much every level and I think he should be ranked higher than Mesoraco, but he’ll be 25 in June. I’d say he’s got a decent futute to be at least a #4 OF on the Reds roster.
10.Juan Francisco - The last 2 years, Fransisco has walked 41 times and struck out 284 times in 1050 at bats with an OPB of .302 in A and A+. Can someone teach him not to swing at anything pitched? Egads. When he hits it, he’s got power though. Don’t know if I’d call him depth.
11.Juan Duran - How can anyone possibly predict what a 16 year old in the DSL will become? Depth? I’m sure he will be in the future, but now?
15.Zach Cozart - He’s 22 and repeated the MWL last year where he was decent. Power was decent, doesn’t K too much but doesn’t walk much either (5.8%). Next stop Sarasota. Is he depth?
16.Yorman Rodriguez - Another 16 year old, he hasn’t played yet. Read great reports on how he’s a first round talent. Could be their top ranked prospect in 2-3 years but there’s no guarantee. Is he depth now? Depends if you think potential = depth I guess.
18.Chris Dickerson - played great in the majors, with an OPS .246 points higher than his minor league career in 102 at bats. Should be a bench/role player.
19.Adam Rosales - I really liked Rosales as a prospect; he showed he would take a walk, but didn’t K a ton. Unfortunately his power never really increased much and the Reds shuffled him around from SS to 1B to the rest of the infield. Might make the super-utility/fill in role of the bench in Cincy.
20.Ryan Hanigan - a 28 year old backup catcher that’s seen 95 at bats in the majors in the last 2 years. Wouldn’t consider him as depth or with the team soon.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 4, 2025 11:27 AM EST
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Few comments
Starting from the bottom up….
Ryan Hanigan is likely going to be the Reds starting catcher next year. The fact that you don’t think he is going to be with the team soon, much less as depth is quite telling.
Adam Rosales as you noted is likely a super utility guy in Cincy…. depth.
Chris Dickerson is a human tool shed who finally seemed to put some things together this year at age 26. Right now is looking at the Reds starting center field spot for 2009. Obviously won’t hit like he did in the majors, but almost certainly will be league average next year for a centerfielder given his offense and defense. Depth.
Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran are both prospects EVERY team would LOVE to have in their system. They were ranked the #2 and #3 international free agents this year. They certainly add depth to the system.
Cozart ‘repeated’ the MWL…. if you count spending a few weeks there in 2007 as a season. I don’t. He is one of the better defensive shortstops in the minors and he has a lot of pop for the position. Tad bit old, but he adds depth to the system.
Francisco is quite valuable even with his walk problems. The Rockies and Reds talked about a trade for Matt Holliday and the Rockies insisted he be included in the deal along with Johnny Cueto. He is also showing some promise in the walk department down in the Dominican right now with 9 walks and 26 strikeouts so far.
Dorn can absolutely destroy right handed pitching. He may profile as a platoon guy, but he also is the major part of the platoon with some serious power in his bat. He will start the season in AAA at age 24 and could easily be in the majors before his birthday next year. Certainly adds depth.
Mesoraco is a toolsy catcher who was in his first year of full season ball. Needs time to develop, but he certainly is depth.
Of course there are also guys not in the top 20 like Justin Turner, Sean Henry, Shawn Cumberland and Chris Heisey who all have spent time at AA or higher with solid results along the way. There is plenty of depth with a very good mix of polished guys who can step in if needed as well as high upside guys with performance under their belt (Frazier, Alonso, Soto) as well as high upside guys who need more experience and time (Rodriguez, Duran, Stubbs though less so than the previous mentioned guys, Lotzkar, Sulbaran).
by dougdirt on
Dec 4, 2025 12:04 PM EST
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Not my fault
that the Reds have no one better to start at catcher. A light hitting 28 year old rookie starting at catcher is more of a testament to the lack of quality in the majors for the Reds than Hanigan’s value. I agreed that some may be useful in the future, disagreed with others and the jury is out on the 16 year olds. I can’t agree that 16 year olds add depth when they are 5-6 years from the minors and as far from predictable right now.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 4, 2025 8:58 PM EST
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so much for...
Hanigan being the starting catcher next year.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 9, 2025 9:22 PM EST
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Wait
How are you defining “depth” here? Is it as depth for the 25 man roster? If so, then maybe you’ve got a point. What dougdirt meant, and what most people mean when talking about a farm system’s depth, is the sheer number of prospects the system has. The Reds do have quite a few guys that are in the lower minors, but they’ve got lots of potential/talent down there. Taking doug’s list(with which I couple of minor quibbles myself), when a guy like Darryl Thompson is your 12th best prospect, that’s a pretty deep farm system. He’d be a top 5 guy for many other teams. I could buy everyone on doug’s list as a C+ prospect at least, although the last couple could grade C and I wouldn’t argue really. There is a lot of talent in that system, especially when they’ve just turned out Votto/Bruce/Cueto in the last year+.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 4, 2025 3:36 PM EST
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I didnt really specifiy
but I meant to the MLB roster right now and in the near future (next year or 2). There’s a good amount of talent in the Reds low minors and a few potential impact players, but they are far away and unpredictable. New players are always breaking out and players predicted to be good are flaming out routinely.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 4, 2025 9:04 PM EST
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Then you and doug
were talking about two seperate things. You’re talking about MLB depth, he’s talking about the depth of the farm system. I’m still not sure that I agree 100% with you, but your argument makes a lot more sense now.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on
Dec 4, 2025 10:04 PM EST
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Stubbs
In your dud piece I have to bring up a few things:
One you note that Stubbs won’t be able to bat at the top of a lineup because of his strike out rates (which for starters you use K/AB rather than K/PA which is much more accurate and descriptive of a players contact ability). The #1 spot in the lineup is the best place to have a high K guy, because he isn’t going to be stranding runners with his K’s or not moving guys over on his K’s.
You also then note that his walk rate declined as he went up levels but made absolutely no mention that from rookie ball to AA his K rate had taken big turns for the better either, showing that not only was he catching up to the pitchers in terms of contact, but getting better at it as he went along. His walk rate did decline though and is something that will need to be watched more closely, but his walk rate dipped to 8% in AAA but is that because he lost his batting eye, or because he got more pitches to hit which may be noted in the fact that he hit .315 in AAA?
You also note that his power hasn’t showed up. It hasn’t shown up in the numbers yet, but let me ask you this…. how many times have you seen him hit a baseball and when was the last time you saw it? The power is there when he wants it to be. Fact is, Drew spent a lot of time this year adjusting to his new swing and trying to improve his contact rate, which he did pretty well as he went from a 24.7% K rate to a 22.4% rate despite jumping through three levels the next season. I think next year is when we find out more about Drew’s power output. He flashed that raw power at times during the year including a 450 foot HR to dead CF in Sarasota and a 440 foot HR in Louisville to the right center gap out of Louisville Slugger Field.
You main point that Stubbs is a dud though is because you think the Reds would have been better off with Lincecum or Snider (in which case I will argue they may not be better off with Snider because he wouldn’t have a position on the Reds at all and would need to be traded for what the Reds would need, a center fielder or shortstop). Simply because the Reds could have drafted someone better doesn’t mean Stubbs is going to be a dud.
by dougdirt on
Dec 3, 2025 2:13 AM EST
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Oops
meant to say though he may not be moving runners over with the K’s at the end of that first paragraph.
by dougdirt on
Dec 3, 2025 2:14 AM EST
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Stubbs as leadoff...
The #1 spot in the lineup is ok to have a high K guy if he can get on base. The high K rate, declining walk rate and high BABIP (so far) is why he’s not suited to bat leadoff.
His K rate took big turns for the better from rookie ball to AA? I can sort of agree, but you left out AAA, so it was sort of selective statistics on your part in my opinion. His K percentages were: 24.7% at A, 22.9% at A+ and 19.8% at AA. A decent improvement, but then he was back up to 23.8% at AAA. He hit .315 in AA, not AAA. He was at .293 in AAA. In AAA it appears he was less selective from the lowered walk rate and higher K rate (from AA) or perhaps it was just that his BABIP went from .408 to .377 from AA to AAA.
I haven’t seen Stubbs play recently. You may say the power is there when he wants it to be, but with the exception of 75 at bats in AAA, his ISOP had been down in 2008. A new swing doesn’t necessarily mean he will have power, but I agree with you that we will see next year if Stubbs has developed power.
My main point was “Stubbs needs to make substantial improvements very soon and I just don’t see it happening.”, not that they would have been better off with Linecum or Snider even though that is true. The #8 pick in a draft should be a star, not a mediocre MLB player. That was my point.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 3, 2025 9:55 AM EST
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You'd like to think that
The #8 pick in a draft should be a star, not a mediocre MLB player.
But the reality quite different.
Also, I was the one questioning your credentials, not gatling. And I wasn’t going to say it, but since you’re touting it, contributing to an article for a fantasy baseball website that gets 116 hits a day isn’t going to win you a Pulitzer Prize for investigative reporting. I think the site for my fantasy league gets as many hits.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on
Dec 3, 2025 11:22 AM EST
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Exactly
The reality is quite different because Stubbs will be a mediocre player at best in my opinion.
You completely missed my point of mentioning the Stubbs article and continue to miss it. It was never about touting an article I did, but in response to your comment that I’m "the one spouting off about players he doesn’t know, not me. " Doesn’t matter where it was posted or how many people read it. I never claimed to be a writer or journalist and never will. That was never the point of me mentioning it.
by Looneyt0on on
Dec 3, 2025 1:49 PM EST
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Alright
You mentioned the article as sign of your knowledge of Stubbs.
Have you seen him play, or only read his stats? Did you see him play at more than one level, to see if he deserved the promotions and if he has a chance at further development?
Did you see him play last year? As Doug stated (and I’ve read elsewhere), the Reds have him working on his swing, which would affect his stats but make him a better player in the majors.
Nothing in your “Stud or Dud” article addresses any of these points (in fact, it doesn’t include any information I couldn’t get from spending 20 seconds at The Baseball Cube). While minor league stats tell part of the story, again as Doug stated earlier there is often much more going on.
Finally, you completely lost me. You thought the 8th pick should be a star; I posted a link that shows that in the history of the draft, only one 8th pick has become a star (the "reality"); you then reply be saying the “reality” is you think Stubbs will be a mediocre player. Please explain to me what your opinion of Stubbs has to do with the fact that almost no stars have ever been drafted #8 (or #9 for that matter)?
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on
Dec 3, 2025 2:52 PM EST
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+1
I was really intrigued by Lotzkar coming into this year and if not for the unfortunate injury, he’d be much more highly regarded.
by mrkupe on
Dec 2, 2025 12:07 PM EST
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I'd
I’d bump Alonso to at least a B+ (comparble to other similarly high picks), Lotzkar to a B- b/c despite his lack of innings, average fip, high walk rate and injury, his ceiling is just too high. If he slips to a C+ I guess I could see it, but he’s probably one of the top 5-10 C+’s out there.
For Frazier I sort of look at guys like Taylor Green (got B- last year after tearign up low-A). I think Green gets another B- this year, so Frazier probably falls in with him. Green is younger (9 months), better plate disc, was a little unlucky (BaBIP wise) but stil outhit Frazier in same league, but doesn’t have Frazier’s power potential. Frazier is highly touted, and its hard to drop him all the way down to a C+ just b/c he tore up leagues he was too old for (he didn’t choose to put himself there) and then didn’t kill a tough league. I would say he’s a B-/B right now, same as Taylor Green.
by jayjay on
Dec 1, 2025 9:26 AM EST
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Frazier/Greene
I think the difference is going to end up being the power potential between Greene and Frazier which is probably why Frazier winds up as a B+ type of guy for most and Greene as a B type of guy. Personally I am not too into letter grades because I think even with the different levels of them, they can be very deceiving.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 12:19 PM EST
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Well
I agree Frazier’s power is > Green, but I think it is balanced in large part, if not totally, by Green’s plate discipline. I agree on letter grades. But basically what I was saying is, even if Frazier is ahead of Green, it’s by such a small margin that if you’re giving guys letter grades they should be the same. Realistically, nobody gives out A+’s and we don’t talk about C-‘s, so you’re putting them in about 7 groups. In that case, Green and Frazier probably go in the same group.
How closely have you looked at Green’s numbers? If you didn’t look closely do so … the combo of LD%’s, K rates and BB rates is quite good. I think all things considered, they are on very similar standing. Its nice to have power potential on the corners, but hard to argue against a guy who should hit .300 each year and can get on base at near to a .400 clip.
by jayjay on
Dec 1, 2025 5:19 PM EST
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They are somewhat close
I was just suggesting that the power difference is probably why Frazier is rated higher than Greene is. Greene draws a few more walks which closes the power gap some between the two, but Frazier doesn’t exactly struggle to get on base. Like you said, they are pretty similar guys.
by dougdirt on
Dec 1, 2025 5:43 PM EST
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Any particular reason?
You keep spelling it Greene?
by jayjay on
Dec 2, 2025 9:06 AM EST
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Probably name recognition
I have a friend whose last name is Greene so its entrenched in my head to spell it that way whenever its capitalized.
by dougdirt on
Dec 2, 2025 11:04 AM EST
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tell that to the grad schools i'm applying to....
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on
Dec 2, 2025 3:00 PM EST
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I hate when Microsoft Word...
turns a “C” that is supposed to be in parentheses into a copyright symbol. How do you turn that off?
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
by strums on
Dec 1, 2025 1:35 PM EST
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Compared to the Giants system though
1. Madsion Bumgarner (B+)
2. Buster Posey (B)
3. Tim Alderson (B)
4. Angel Villalona (B-)
4. Nick Noonan (B-)
5. Conor Gillaspie (C+)
6. Roger Kieshnick (C+)
7. Rafael Rodriguez ©
8. Travis “still a prospect” Ishikawa ©
9. Wendell Fairley: ©
10. Henry Sosa ©
by giantsloseagain on
Dec 1, 2025 12:21 AM EST
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Bumgarner is a B+?
Alderson is a B? Umm…..
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Dec 1, 2025 2:52 PM EST
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Grades
Bum is A- and Posey and Alderson are B+. I would put Villanona at B, but I could see B+.
Too low both systems across the board.
by supermets on
Dec 1, 2025 4:52 PM EST
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When will you be working on the Rangers system?
45-35
Jindal '12
by Longhorn on
Dec 1, 2025 1:05 AM EST
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you gave me a good laugh
maybe in a week…
by giantsloseagain on
Dec 1, 2025 1:08 AM EST
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My "Grades"
I am not much into grades either but I’ll play along.
Reds Prospects
- - Neftali Soto B+ This kid is a real gem, has the makings of a big time 3B
- - Yonder Alonso B+ Could easily be an elite level all around bat, only a decent fielder
- - Todd Frazier B+/B Should play 3B well and will have an all around solid offensive game
- - Kyle Lotzkar B The injury knocks him down a peg but has very good stuff could be a B+ or better
- - Chris Valaika B/B- A very good comp could be Michael Young, look at each Slg% progression
- - Drew Stubbs B- On a fence, he could be excellent but unsure, needs work on swing
- - Devin Mesoraco C+ He held his own @ 19 in Low A and is a catcher with some tools
- - Danny Dorn C+ Has got on base at a fair clip vs. LHP so maybe he develops more
- - Daryl Thompson C+ Again an injury plays a part in grade, if not for that an easy B
- - Zach Stewart C+ Could be a high leverage BP arm w/ GB tendencies
Francisco - Needs to gain some serious discipline at the plate, don’t know if he can gain that much discipline. Speaking of discipline he could use some of that in his diet as well. Future DH/1B at best but don’t tell opposing GM’s. I wouldn’t dare put a grade on him at this point.
I didn’t include anyone currently on the 25 man, if I had I would have given Dickerson some love for a possible Top 10, although I admit the jury is definitely still out. But he has the talent.
by MR. RED on
Dec 6, 2025 3:43 AM EST
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