In all seriousness, I really like Jay Jackson as a sleeper to keep an eye on. I’ve heard conflicting reports on his FB velocity though (from high 80s to “touching mid 90s”), and I’m curious to hear what his stuff really is like.

Easily one of the 5 worst in baseball, I’d imagine.

Where the System Is

In short, the upper minors are barren and the lower minors have a lot of talent with a lot of questions. The Harden and Gregg trades have pretty much sapped the upper levels of prospects and a number of guys in AA/AA did not assert themselves. However, there is cause for hope. The 2008 draft produced a lot of intriguing pitching prospects and a few hitters who could pan out. The Cubs’ scouting efforts in the Pacific Rim have unearthed a number of good prospects from Korea, Taiwan, and Australia. Their Latin American scouting hasn’t been as active, although there are a few guys who merit optimism.

The Cubs need pitchers to stay healthy and hitters to learn some plate discipline. That might be a tall order, but some breakout performances next season could really help. For the time being, there’s not much to like, much less love.

Top Ten

1) 3B Josh Vitters (B+) - I see a lot of Aramis Ramirez in him. He has some defensive issues at 3B, but he’s worked hard to correct them to the point that it’s likely he’ll stick there. Power and average-wise, there’s a lot to like. He doesn’t strike out a whole lot, but he doesn’t walk much, either. The Cubs can afford to move slow with him, so hopefully he’ll only continue to improve and stay healthy.

2) P Jeff Samardzija (B) - Up until his promotion to AAA, a lot of people wouldn’t have put him on their Top 10 lists. However, he did a very good job upon his promotion to AAA and also showcased a lot of potential as a reliever in the majors. Frankly, I think the Cubs should keep him in AAA to get him innings and see if he can stick at SP, as he could be a good 2/3 starter. However, I think Lou will want him in the majors as a reliever, especially with Wood supposedly on the way out. If that’s the case, he could be an excellent reliever with his stuff.

3) P Andrew Cashner (B) - Will he start or will he relieve? If he can be as effective as a starter as a reliever, the Cubs will have a very good SP on their hands. As a reliever, he has the stuff and the mentality to be really good. A bullpen with Marmol, Samardzija, and Cashner could be flat-out nasty.

4) C Welington Castillo (B-) - One of the better-kept secrets in the Cubs’ system. He’s received rave reviews for his defense and handling of pitchers. He also isn’t half-bad with his bat, although his lack of power will hinder him. He’s still young for his level, to boot. I think he’ll end up being a solid backup for Soto down the line.

5) P Jay Jackson (B-) - There’s a lot to love with him. He’s athletic, he has surprisingly good stuff (yes, he works in the 90s), and he moved like a bolt of lightning through the system this season. There’s definite middle of the rotation potential with him and plenty of cause for excitement. More time is needed to evaluate him, though.

6) 2B/SS Ryan Flaherty (C+) - Like the bat, don’t care much for his defense. I don’t see him sticking at SS. A move to 2B, 3B, or the OF seems inevitable. If he can stick in the IF, his bat will be solid enough to carry him into the majors as a starter.

7) P Dae-Eun Rhee (C+) - He could have been #1 or #2 on this list if he had stayed healthy this season, in my opinion. Tommy John Surgery is a bummer, but he’s young enough to bounce back better than ever. He has electric stuff and a great feel for pitching. There’s a lot to love about him, but we’ll have to see how he rehabilitates and matures.

8) OF Tyler Colvin © - I’m still not totally sure what to make of him. When he showcases his power, he loses his patience. When he showcases his patience, his power and AVG go flying out the window. Maybe he’ll put it all together, but there’s not much reason to hope at this point. Moreover, even if he reaches his ceiling as a hitter, the fact that he’ll probably end up in LF is disconcerting.

9) IF Hak-Ju Lee (Inc.) - I know, I know, he hasn’t played a lick in the States yet. But, I can’t help myself in getting excited for him. Scouts and coaches are raving about his work ethic, attitude, defense, and potential. He’s young and he’s got a ton of potential. Maybe he’ll never amount to anything, but I really love what I’ve read about him.

10) OF/1B Drew Rundle (C-) - I like Rundle, but he’d be an afterthought in a lot of systems. His struggles in Peoria hurt his stock quite a bit, although his rebound in Boise showcased his ability to hit for power and average. He needs to work on his plate discipline. A good year in Peoria next season would do him wonders.

The Next Five (in no order)

P Daniel McDaniel - I like what I’ve read, but it’s unclear whether the Cubs plan on starting him full-time or not.
SS Starlin Castro - Intriguing SS prospect, but can he continue to produce at a higher level?
P Donald Veal - His stuff is still there, but his performance took a nosedive.
P Mitch Atkins - Solid, but unspectacular. Back of the rotation is in his future.
1B/3B Jovan Rosa - I seriously don’t see him sticking at 3B or adding much more power. I’m down on him more than others, but if he keeps putting up the numbers he has been, he’ll still be good.

5 Sleepers/Names to Know

P Jeff Beliveau - Remember Rich Hill? He’s the same story, only with a two seamer. He needs command, but if he ever gets it…yikes.
SS Darwin Barney - He’s flying under the radar, but his AFL numbers have been halfway decent. He’s good defensively and could be a pesky/gritty/hustletastic type.
OF Brandon Guyer - Quietly put up good numbers while playing a decent CF in Peoria. Athletic, smart, and a good hitter.
OF Nelson Perez - Awesome power, but he needs to work on his patience.
P Alessandro Maestri - Unspectacular numbers as a starter, but he’s got very, very nice potential as a reliever. He has a knockout slider.

I’m a lot more excited about Lee after seeing BP’s write-up on him (where they said he would have been the second best HS SS in this year’s draft behind Beckham).

But yeah, this system is a clustermess right now. There are a lot of really talented guys in the lower levels, but all of them have issues that could keep them from ever seeing the majors. There’s a lot of breakout potential to go around, but…ugh.

What’s most frustrating is that there are a number of really talented players in the majors who could be had by trade, but the Cubs simply don’t have the ammo for them. Having guys like Travis Snider and/or Matt Wieters in this system would have made life a lot better this offseason.

Outshined should know it. BP helped convince me that I was rating Hak-Ju Lee far too low.

1. 3B Josh Vitters
2. RHP Jeff Samardzija
3. RHP Andrew Cashner
4. C Welington Castillo
5. RHP Jay Jackson
6. 2B/SS Ryan Flaherty
7. SS Hak-Ju Lee
8. RHP Dae-Eun Rhee
9. OF Tyler Colvin
10. RHP Esmailin Caridad
11. 3B Jovan Rosa
12. SS Starlin Castro
13. RHP Mitch Atkins
14. RHP Larry Suarez
15. OF Drew Rundle

I have heard different things about him..obviously not a huge prospect..but I heard he may be a late blooming sinkerballer. I appreciate any thoughts on him

Thoughts on where he would rank if the Cubs had somehow managed to sign him? I think he’s probably at No. 3.

The Cub system is so shallow in full-season prospects, I’d seriously consider a trio of their Dominican kids for the top 15, if not top 10.

Marcos Perez (18) posted a dazzling 1.38 ERA, with a 52-9 K/BB ratio.
Lil’ righty Rod Pichardo (just 17) put up a 2.41 ERA, while young for the league.

And easily the most promising of all, outfielder Jesus Morelli, who’ll still be 18 on Opening Day 2009, was outstanding with both the lumber & leather this year. Morelli hit .317/.432/.478 (260 points above league OPS!), and gunned down an amazing 9 runners in just 43 games.

Oh, and how about the terrific 34/37 BB/K rate?!

Morelli is one of the best unsung teen prospects in all of baseball, and he certainly belongs in the top 10 of a sub-mediocre Cub system. Just a great sleeper.