Prospect Retro: Joe Blanton
Prospect Retro: Joe Blanton
I'm writing about Joe Blanton because he is a personal favorite, and (for me at least) an interesting case study in pitcher development.
Blanton was drafted by the Athletics in the first round in 2002, from the University of Kentucky, 24th overall. He was the second player picked by Oakland in the famous "Moneyball"draft class. Blanton's track record for Kentucky was mixed: he struggled with his control in his freshman and sophomore years, then took a step forward in 2002. His college numbers that year: 5-7, 4.59 with a 133/37 K/BB in 100 innings. The K/IP and K/BB ratios were good, much improved over his previous campaigns, but he was still erratic. Scouts liked his arm strength a great deal, as he showed a fastball that could hit 95 MPH. His breaking stuff was promising but erratic. I liked him enough to pick him in my 2002 Twins Shadow Draft. I gave him a Grade B- in the 2003 book.
Blanton went to Kane County in the Midwest League for 2003 and was outstanding, posting a 2.57 ERA and a 144/19 K/BB in 133 innings. He also went 2-0, 1.66 in three late-season starts for Midland in the Texas League. Blanton's command took a huge step forward, and he made massive progress with his secondary pitches. His velocity in the Midwest League was consistent at 93-94 MPH, hitting 96 at times. I gave him a Grade A- and rated him as the Number Four pitching prospect in baseball, behind Zack Greinke, Ryan Wagner, and Edwin Jackson.
Blanton skipped Double-A in 2004 and went directly to Triple-A Sacramento. He went 11-8, 4.19 with a 143/34 K/BB in 176 innings, but allowed 199 hits. He continued to refine his curveball, slider, and changeup, but he lost some velocity on his fastball, as it dipped into the 88-92 MPH range. His hit rate spiked, likely a combination of PCL environment and the drop in velocity. I lowered his grade one notch to B+, and rated him as the Number 20 pitching prospect in the game.
Blanton entered the Oakland rotation in 2005 and has been eating innings ever since. What I find interesting about him is that when he came out of college, he was considered a power pitcher with an excellent arm who needed better command. He no longer throws as hard as he did back then, but his command has come around and he's proven to be a durable rotation member. He's made a complete transition from raw thrower his first two years of college, to pure pitcher in the majors.
I wonder if there are any young power pitchers out there who could develop in a similar way?
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63 comments
Comments
Hughes?
by hallofamer2000 on Sep 15, 2025 1:05 PM EDT 0 recs
its possible but
by realityconquest on
Sep 17, 2025 2:37 PM EDT
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Blantpn
by ohad on Sep 15, 2025 1:08 PM EDT 0 recs
nitpick
a nice summary. i didn't realize blanton's control was only so-so in college. i wonder what happened? from day 1 in the minor leagues he was a strike machine.
by jpahk on Sep 15, 2025 1:46 PM EDT 0 recs
also
by jpahk on Sep 15, 2025 1:46 PM EDT 0 recs
Start Your Own Site
by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 15, 2025 3:27 PM EDT 0 recs
Thank You....
BTW. I am not John's security dog, but I do have a right to express my opinion too.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 3:37 PM EDT
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Opinion
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 4:49 PM EDT
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You're Welcome
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 6:55 PM EDT
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Well,
And yeah, if that were the case (complaining about two straight threads content), it would have been kind of like throwing, say TWO straight pitches at a batter's head (yes this analogy was intentional)
by jrose643 on
Sep 16, 2025 12:12 AM EDT
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there was no "attempted hijacking"!
This same thing happened in the Elijah Dukes diary, the Schierholtz article, and I am 99.95% sure this is also the same poster who used a bunch of sockpuppet accounts to make accusations of racism in an earlier diary that's now deleted. It's the same damn thing every time.
- Make a passive-aggressive complaint ("yawn", "why is this post here," "that sounds racist," etc.) about an earlier poster's post.
- Support it with your other username(s).
- When someone responds to the insulting tone of your post, jump all over them with all your usernames.
- Concentrate only on the weaker points of the person's response, and ignore any reasonable points they might have made.
- Accuse people of being cliquish, stupid, etc., and then say "let's get back to the subject". When they respond to the insulting part of your post, accuse them of persecuting the newbie/freethinker, and of not sticking to the subject.
by Mean Dean on
Sep 16, 2025 10:21 AM EDT
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enough of this BS
My yawn comment was directed towards those attempting to hijack this thread into another Phil Hughes discussion.LaGoofy, who is totally not the same person as you at all, says:
Are you talking about all the guys already making this a Hughes thread?THERE WAS ONE POST ABOUT HUGHES. YOU ARE A TROLL. JOHN, PLEASE STOP THIS.
by Mean Dean on
Sep 15, 2025 5:56 PM EDT
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Benefit of Doubt
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 7:26 PM EDT
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Crystal Ball?
Anyway, Blanton looks like he has several positive trends going: BB/9, HR's allowed, GO/AO. Combine all that with his apparent durabillity and I think he has an excellent chance at >200 wins in his career. Probably one of those guys who is on the edge of a HOF career but not quite.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 7:47 PM EDT
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Perhaps....
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 7:56 PM EDT
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Roy Halliday?
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 8:04 PM EDT
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Halliday vs Blanton
Second, Blanton is still on the upswing of his career, so who's to say he doesn't have a couple of 18-22 win seasons with sub 3 ERA's in him?
Joe Blanton, 2007: 14-9, 3.78, 219.1 IP, 34 BB, 132 K.
Roy Halliday, 2007: 15-7, 3.82,, 209.1 IP, 47 BB, 131 K.
Looks pretty similar, no?
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 16, 2025 12:53 AM EDT
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Pitching to Contact
Yes, this is Blanton's best season, but several of his secondary stats have shown steady progress over the last 3 years, so it's not like he suddenly popped up with a career year here.
Not sure there is a perfect comp for Blanton. That's why I think a crystal ball on him would be fun.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 16, 2025 1:16 AM EDT
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You are seriously...
In 2002 and 2003 he was the best pitcher in baseball.
In 2005 he was on his way towards another Cy Young before a line drive broke his leg.
He was damn good in '06.
Blanton may pitch similarly to Halladay has this year, but you seemed to have forgotten how good Halladay's been in recent years.
by SenorGato88 on
Sep 16, 2025 3:34 AM EDT
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Haven't Forgotten
Like I've said before, Blanton looks quite capable of a 200 win career with not quite good enough numbers for the HOF. That's right about where I think Halliday will end up too.
Other similarities: They are both big RHP's who pitch to contact, don't walk many, keep the ball in the yard, and keep the ball on the ground(at least Blanton is heading in the direction of keeping the ball on the ground).
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 16, 2025 12:18 PM EDT
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New York, Boston, LA?
Go ahead and throw out any season you want. In the end, I predict both Halliday and Blanton will end up with around 200 wins, sub 4 ERA's and will both miss out on the HOF.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 16, 2025 12:48 PM EDT
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Benefit of the Doubt
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 7:52 PM EDT
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There You Go Again
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 7:52 PM EDT
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LOL
I'm sure your kitty cat thinks you're interesting too but I doubt anyone else here does save your confidant Joba. Mahalo
Matt
by WayneCampbell05 on
Sep 15, 2025 10:09 PM EDT
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Well
As for Blanton, I think he is what he is--a solid innings eater type who probably just won't be dominant enough to ever put together a Cy Young type season. There's a lot of value in what he brings to the table though, regardless.
by Pawtucket Pat on
Sep 17, 2025 11:28 AM EDT
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+1000000000
by slurve on
Sep 18, 2025 7:52 PM EDT
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Disagreement
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 7:59 PM EDT
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this thread is off track lol
by rayver723 on Sep 15, 2025 3:57 PM EDT 0 recs
Comparison
by RedHopeful on Sep 15, 2025 4:12 PM EDT 0 recs
Future
Ian Kennedy
Jared Weaver
Gio Gonzalez
by RedHopeful on
Sep 15, 2025 4:27 PM EDT
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Not REALLY disagreeing
Case
by casejud on
Sep 15, 2025 6:18 PM EDT
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Interesting
by RedHopeful on
Sep 16, 2025 12:48 AM EDT
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I like this
by Yakker on
Sep 16, 2025 12:57 AM EDT
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I think Beane might trade Blanton
in previous rumors they have wanted milledge,laroche, hu , etc. those type of prospects. what teams do you see being interested?
dodgers?
braves?
mets?
cards?
mariners?
by rayver723 on Sep 15, 2025 4:18 PM EDT 0 recs
Braves
by RedHopeful on
Sep 15, 2025 4:33 PM EDT
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if its the braves
by rayver723 on
Sep 15, 2025 4:38 PM EDT
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i'd give up Lillibridge and James
by Bravesin07 on
Sep 15, 2025 4:40 PM EDT
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I wonder
But yeah, Blanton is certainly the kind of pitcher that a team like Atlanta would value highly.
by Yakker on
Sep 16, 2025 1:00 AM EDT
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LOL The Mets
by Bravesin07 on
Sep 15, 2025 4:33 PM EDT
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Nod
by RedHopeful on
Sep 15, 2025 4:53 PM EDT
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I do love....
Anyone notice the Braves and Phillies have huge holes in their pens too? As well as a number of actual contenders.
Sorry, just getting frustrated at the negativity.
by Lunkwill Fook on
Sep 15, 2025 5:30 PM EDT
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Agreed
by RedHopeful on
Sep 16, 2025 12:50 AM EDT
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Trade?
Let's just say they are going that direction, a guy like Blanton should command a major haul. I would think Escobar, Brandon Jones and Tommy Hanson from the Braves would be a starting point.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 7:12 PM EDT
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i wouldnt consider it rebuilding
by rayver723 on
Sep 15, 2025 7:35 PM EDT
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Lowry
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 15, 2025 7:42 PM EDT
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Escobar
by Yakker on
Sep 16, 2025 1:03 AM EDT
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Trade?
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 16, 2025 1:07 AM EDT
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One thing
Still, I agree that it doesn't seem likely that he will deal Blanton to Atlanta this offseason.
by Yakker on
Sep 17, 2025 1:04 PM EDT
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I agree
by ozzman99 on
Sep 17, 2025 2:16 PM EDT
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just rumors, from what i read
dodgers didnt have any mlb ready SP's to offer in a deal
A's were asking for SS prospect DeJesus in any combo of deals, dodgers refused to give him up
Laroche/Hu/Meloan were mentioned most in rumors, not sure if all 3 would've been traded
Olney reported that 4-5 prospects were involved in the dodgers deal, but there was disagreement between Colletti and the rest of the front office on tradeable prospects
there's also speculation when A's let the Dodgers claim loaiza. that was building good will towards a potential offseason deal. who knows if this is true or not
by rayver723 on
Sep 17, 2025 2:28 PM EDT
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Mulder trade
by jahs34 on
Sep 16, 2025 10:49 AM EDT
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why the change?
by Mean Dean on Sep 15, 2025 6:03 PM EDT 0 recs
I dont know
He attacks and pitches to contact with his fastball and I'd be inclined to think he might have been able to touch 97 in his younger days but, it isnt part of his style or necessary.
by casejud on
Sep 15, 2025 6:23 PM EDT
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I think Humber's a good call
As Mean Dean wrote above, it's strange that Blanton would go from a very successful pitcher who threw that hard to one who did not without any precipitating reason that we know of.
by andwoo on Sep 15, 2025 6:25 PM EDT 0 recs
yeah
by limozeen on
Sep 18, 2025 10:24 AM EDT
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Crystal Ball?
Is it too late to do a Crystal Ball on Blanton? I did a search and it looks like you haven't done one yet. He's still early enough in his career that it would be interesting, but has enough data that you might be able to do a pretty accurate one.
Blanton has a couple of very interesting trends going:
BB's over the last 3 years: 67, 58, 33 which translates to BB/9's of 3.00, 2.69, 1.40.
At the same time, his HR's allowed have gone 23, 17, 14.
His GO/AO's have also gone in the right direction: 1.06, 1.13, 1.36.
Put all that together and you've got a pitcher who 1. Doesn't give up walks. 2. Doesn't give up a lot of HR's 3. is getting progressively better at keeping the ball on the ground.
Factor in his apparent durability and you have a very valuable pitcher. He might never win a Cy Young because there might always be someone who has a better single season, but at the end of his career, I could see him easily with >200 wins.
by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 15, 2025 7:23 PM EDT 0 recs
What about Shields?
by ozzman99 on Sep 15, 2025 11:23 PM EDT 0 recs
4 seam vs 2 seam
by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 16, 2025 1:21 AM EDT 0 recs
Is it just me...
Shouldn't that like...stop?
by SenorGato88 on Sep 16, 2025 3:34 AM EDT 0 recs
Casey Janssen
by Mike Green on Sep 17, 2025 9:45 AM EDT 0 recs
Blanton trade question
--Robert K., Ceres, Calif.
I wouldn't say the A's are eager to trade Blanton, for all the reasons you outlined. From what I hear, the talks with the Dodgers right before the deadline were initiated by Los Angeles, and I haven't heard of any other Blanton-centric talks since.
But keep in mind that any general manager worth his salt is going to listen when a team wants to talk about one of his players. And when you find a team that seems a little bit desperate, as the Dodgers were for pitching at the time, you'd be negligent if you didn't try to squeeze a sweetheart deal out of them. That, from what I've heard, is what Billy Beane did. And when the Dodgers didn't give him the farm, the talks broke off.
The A's love Blanton. But nobody on this team is untouchable.
by rayver723 on Sep 17, 2025 6:09 PM EDT 0 recs






