Potential Free Agent acquisitions that make sense

A world where mariners pitching prospects don't spontaneously combust?

I think a projected lineup/depth charr with uppere and lower bounds for projected stats would be interesting.

Talk about what happened in 06 to make the things happen in 07.  Add some guesses of which sleepers overtake the best known prospects.  Make estimate at performance.  

A couple of things I might include in a Time Machine Projection

1. Player that inexplicably has a great season
   
2. Player that should have a great year but won't because of __ freak injury (broken collarbone from carrying vension upstairs, finger caughts in lawn chair, etc. etc.)
   
3. Player(s) who might be almost ready by 2007 but won't be in the bigs because the team signed _ veteran free agent with "good clubhouse presence" during the offseason - a good opportunity to spotlight some young guys in Rookie or A ball with good potential.
   
4. How will the pitching/hitting rank in the AL? (This one is tough because it pretty much makes you project everything else too...)
   
5. Who will be closing?  Batting cleanup?  Batting leadoff?  Who is the ace of the staff?
   
6. What prospects will be held back due to injury?

And just for the Mariners

1. How many hits will Ichiro have?
   
2. Along the same lines, % of ads in the stadium in Japanese
   
3. Where will they finish in the division?
   
4. How many HR will Bucky Jacobsen have?
   
5. How many K's will Bucky Jacobsen have?
   
6. How many K's will Felix Hernandez have?
   
7. How many BB's will Felix Hernandez have?
   
8. Which prospects will be All-Stars for other teams?

You've probably thought of a lot of these, but hope something I've included can help a little.

I think these would be very interesting when compared with what the players are doing now. Also injury attrition, which I guess is kind of included in a comparison of actual vs predicted.

Projecting potential free agent signings, or even what a franchise would need 2 years down the line seems like an awfully heavy task.  Why not just do a projected batting order, a couple of bench players/backups, 5-man starting rotation, lefty and/or righty setup men and a closer for each squad?  Additionally, it would be nice to have your expected performances from each player, along with a high and low-end (or just a simple range) projection.  Finally, a few words summarizing the overall condition of the franchise (strengths, holes, etc.) would be just perfect to wrap things up, IMO.

Id like to see how much of each teams roster (measured by # of players, or winshares, or warp) is made up of homegrown talent.  I think that would give us a good idea of how much the future mariners roster will be made up of players currently in the farm system, and how much will not.  Perhaps if you could find some correlation between the overall quality of farm system (probably ranked by BA) and the dependance of franchises on homegrown talent 5 years down the line.

As you probably know, Baseball America does its projected lineup for 3 years down the road in its handbook. These are pretty much a waste of perfectly good paper. They just take a look at open positions and slot in the team's best prospect at that spot.

That's useless.

If a team has an open spot after the 2005 season, for example, someone has to play it in 2006. It doesn't have to be open in 2007. Consider who they might bring in or call up and how that affects the makeup of the team later on. Where will the big free agents sign? Which prospects will be traded and where? There's no need to be conservative. Make some wild guesses because that's what makes it interesting to read.

For the prospects, certainly don't be afraid to predict a bust. Top prospects bust all the time, I'm curious to know your gut feelings on which will. And as others have mentioned, predict some sleepers who might emerge as solid MLB players.

As for format, I really don't have a preference. Maybe list your projected lineups and rotations with your guesses for the stat line of each player. Bullpens would be too complicated, but you could probably just list a closer too.

07 is too close. Go with like an "09 spring training preview". You could have stuff like:

"Seattle expects the rotation to be much improved this year. The Mariners have re-signed last years Ace, Jamie Moyer, after trading him to the Yankees at the trade deadline. They also have high hopes for the #2 slot as the club says they expect Felix Hernandez to make a full recovery from his second Tommy John surgery."

Mr. Sickels,

My thoughts:

1. Don't predict free agent signings - far to difficult. Probably easier to say who'll depart (Moyer, Spiezio, etc.)
   
2. Do the lineup, as people suggest, but also make it a lineup that can make Seattle a winner. Don't just stick in a guy at SS because he's the top ranked SS. Do it because the team you project can hit/pitch/field to get them to the playoffs. You can spin this as a 'how we (the Mariners) have hope' - or if it's impossible to create a team that has hope, say so.
   
3. To do this, list the expected team, project numbers (I know it's hard, especially for pitchers, but that's what I'd want to see). Include salaries so people know you're thinking as a bean counter as well as a talent scout.
   
4. Tally your numbers - HRs, BA, OPS, ERA, etc., and project them against how they'd stack up to teams in 2004 and 2005.
   
5. Don't be afraid to say the existing system/roster is going to cut it - and specify who could/should be dealt and for what kinds of players.
   
6. Make suggestions on who to deal from the roster to add depth to the minor league system - or the major league roster - but don't assume anything in regard to 'you can get a quality 1B for these two guys' or something like that. Just say, "Deal Spiezio for whatever you can get (if anything)."

In the end, I'd put out a roster listing the team such as:

1B - Sexson, .250 BA, .350 OBP, 40 HR, .900 OPS, average defense (or whatever you'd way about him)
3B - Beltre, .275 BA, 25 HR, .340 OBP, etc., etc. - you get the idea.
Do this for all the starters.
You can then say, 'This team projects at: post numbers' and compare it to how that stacks up against other AL teams.

For pitchers probably keep it to starters, listing their name and projected ERA - relievers are so flighty, I'd give it the 'Since relievers are so flighty, I'm going to give the club the league ERA for it's relievers' or something like that - perhaps listing arms on the roster and in the system that could fill this role - especially anyone really good coming up.

Hernandez: starter, 3.50 ERA
Franklin: starter, 4.50 ERA
Meche: staret, 5.00 ERA
Etc, etc.

The idea is to aim for goals - both in pitching and hitting - and say, 'We want to raise the pitching to approximately 5th in the league and hitting to 6th' or something like that - somethine realistic that would give them a chance at making the playoffs.

PS - the Mariners look kind of thin in talent - good luck.

time machine- its a new segment idea- so John Sickels, what do you went to accomplish with it? was is it? When do we land? 2008?

Hi John,

I am a big fan of your site. I think one fun thing that can be done for Time Machine is to see what can happen in the best case scenarios. When we evaluste prospects, we have to think about the risk/awards, which is the right thing to do. However, there is no place right now where we can completely fantasize about the very best case scenario for all prospects. We often see that at baseball discussions from people who actually do not know much about propsects like myself, but I think it will be great if someone with real expertise like you can do it. As a Mariner fan, that is what has been keeping me alive in the last a few years, and I am sure there are a lot of baeball fans like me.

Thank you for your great work.

My vote (as a Seattle resident (though calling me a Mariners fan is a bit beyond; I'm a cerebral baseball fan in the first place and my heart lies in Boston, where I was born.  Not that I'm not grateful that Seattle has such a great baseball blogging community))....

The essence of Speculative Fiction is the novel premise.  Baseball America can and does lame it up with their 'projected lineup'; nobody wants or needs you to do that.  So... speculate!  This is your site and your creativity, so feel a little freer to speculate in way that you might not normally.

Maybe Michael Morse really is the second coming of Nomar Garciaparra.

Maybe Ichiro is doner than Elvis after this season.

Maybe Beltre turns into Miguel Olivo.  Maybe he turns into Mike Schmidt.

The key word, I think, is 'inventive'.  Check the FA list for this offseason and the next, maybe mention a signing, but don't go into too much depth.  Mention how Betancourt and Morse's development let the Mariners trade Jose Lopez, Justin Leone, and Raul Ibanez for... eh, I dunno, somebody interesting.  That sort of thing.

i would project the lineups and how well those people might do this coming season.  do not worry about the free agents aspect since that is too hard to project.  

It might be good to predict the future with teams that generally build through their system (D'Rays, Brewers, Twins), but predicting the future isn't worth the typing when it comes to most teams.

Teams that build through free agency (Boston, New Yorks), teams that have weak farm systems (Padres, Gnats), or even teams like Oakland that trade a lot are really tough to analyze their future in a few years.

I really enjoy your writing, and I'll still read your time machine articles if you write them, but I'm just saying that the effort might not be worth the reward.  In contrast, it might be a little more informative to predict what the top prospects in each team's system might be doing in a few years, and give rough stat estimates on what they would be doing in the show.  Or, just list the best propsects in each of the systems by position.

I think some of what's being suggested here is absurd.  Who on Earth can project free agent signings two years down the road?  And projected stat lines for prospects, are you kidding me?  it's hard enough projecting future stat lines for current major leaguers, least of all 20 year-old kids in single-A.  Think of your favorite team -- any team -- and what you would have projected for 2005 back in 2003.

In the end, you're just trying to get a feel for where the organization is headed and which kids in the minors look like a part of their near-term future.  That exercise is going to have whomping error bars, but is still useful.  I think 2007 is about as far as you want to go.  Anything beyond that and you're just being silly.  The whole situation can change on a single prospect.

I would suggest something like the following:

1. Where does the organization seem headed?  For example, the Yankees will probably still be using their minor leagues to get veterans to patch up their bloated roster.  The Brewers could be a contender in 2007 based on their farm system.  Looking back at 2003, the Indians had three top position-player prospects, so we might have been able to predict they'd be contending by now.
2. Review which positions they are set at because of huge contracts.  With the Mariners, I think we can agree that RF, 1B and 3B will be taken up, for example.
3. After that, see what positions the team could have someone ML-ready by then based on the current system, i.e, Hernandez will probably be near the top of the rotation, Choo will be their 4th outfielder, but I don't see any good prospects at catcher, so that might be a big free agent/trade need for them.  Again, looking back at 2003, the top prospect list is filled with names like Mauer, Martinez, Reyes, Cabrera.  Not everyone pans out -- hardly any pitchers really.  And top prospects get traded.  But you can get a good idea of who will be a contributor.
4. Feel free to just have fun.  This isn't a serious exercise.  You're just trying to get a feel for where the organization is going.  Is Tampa Bay going to blow all their young talent?  Do the Reds have a clue?  Will Depo make the Dodgers a powerhouse?  Will Billyball still be working?

I think that if you back off from hard projections and just try to get a feel for what you might expect in 2007, you'll find the line.  As a matter of fact, it might be fun to use the wayback machine and go back to say 2003 and see where the organization seemed headed, whether you could have foreseen their current situation.  Then project ahead to 2007 based on the lessons you learn.

just to tweak some thoughts, how about looking at 2007 lineup based on what could have happened (yes, even though this is the future), had the organization made the best possible moves with their assets...if they hadn't traded _, etc.
It's always fun to use our hindsight 20-20 ability...perhaps thinking about it as an alternative timeline a la Star Trek? Like Bones leaving behind a communicator on Sigma Iotia II, interfering in the timeline can be risky...

John,

I like the concept.  Try to make it work.  

These are things that I wouldn't mind seeing:

-discussion of the top prospects, and how you see them working out, specifically, who is most likely to pan out, how long they might be away from the big leagues, who is going to have to switch positions, who is likely to regress or break out, ect.  

-a depth chart of who is likely to still be around

-possible free agent moves that the M's might consider next offseason and next next offseason

-discussion of what the M's can do given their financial resources, money they have committed, ect.  

I really think that the M's are at a turning point:  
-Bill Bavasi has proven himself as a good GM after a horrible first off-season (Spiezio, Aurillia, ect)
-The M's draft philosophy has change to more of a tools-oriented focus
-They have jettisoned a lot of old, expensive players.  
-They have a good core of high-priced players (Ichiro, Beltre, Sexson)

The biggest thing that the M's have going for them is that they have a ton of cash to use to address their biggest needs: the starting rotation and power in the outfield.  

-This offseason, they have Jaimie Moyer, Bret Boone, Shiggy Hasegawa, Gil Meche, Ryan Franklin, Wiki Gonzales, Pokey Reese, and Dan Wilson coming off the books, for a savings of just under $30 million.  Only Meche is a good bet to be back.  

-After 2006, Joel Piniero, Raul Ibanez, Scott Spiezio, and Eddie Guardado come off the books, taking another 18.25 mil off the books.  

This gives the M's a lot of flexibility to throw cash at their problems.  I would look for them to be really active this offseason, going after the premium pitchers on the market (a thin group that includes AJ Burnett, Matt Morris, Kevin Millwood, Brad Penny, and perhaps Daisuke Matsuzaka).  I think that they could add two high-priced starters to go along with King Felix and two guys to round out the rotation for 2006.  

I look forward to seeing what you come up with!!  

I can understand the frustration in developing the format.  I like the idea though and thought I'd give my two cents on what I was hoping to see.

I'd suggest a run down of each general position.  Outfielders, corner infielders, middle infielders, starters, relievers, and catchers.  Give a little synopsis of which prospects should have broken in by then and which veterans should still be playing.  Indicate which positions are either glaring holes or have some surplus talent to trade.

And then generally how that position would stack up against either the division (might require to much projecting of other teams) or the league.  Or just give a 1 to 5 star rating.

You could then list a couple players that should be at the top of the minors by then.

You could then summerize which free agents or potentially available minor leaguers should be good targets for the front office factoring the way the team has typically been built.

Finally give an overall direction the franchise is headed.  World Series Contender, Top of the Division, Middle of the Pack, Delusions of Adequacy...

I wouldn't try and get too creative, or too imaginative.

Thanks,

Seems like a rundown of free agents on a site called Minorleagueball is not really on topic.

I suggest checking out ussmariner.com's "Future Forty" as an iea of a way to go with the time machine.