Eaton
C. Young
Dominguez
Loe
And a competition between FA's (Loaiza?), Prospects Volquez, Diamond, or Danks (unlikely), or the usual suspects Dickey and company.

The bullpen should get be better with the return of injured players like ultimate fighter Frank Francisco setting up Cordero.

This isn't an outstanding rotation but it has potential to be better than the Rangers recent history as starting pitchers are concerned and the bullpen will be better than 2005 but not as good as 2004.

If Loretta is acquired he becomes the 2B and Soriano will either be approached to move to the OF or dealt to acquire more pitching or a CF.

Blalock will remain at 3B due to a lack of better options.  In another scenario he could be dealt for pitching leaving Loretta to play 3B (I believe he spent time at 3B with the MIL) leaving Soriano at 2B.

Tex and Young are undoubtedly the nucleus of the team so they are the only players that are truly untouchable.  At this point the only glaring need would be a CF (preferably a lead off hitter).  

SECOND, JUST LOOKING AT SOME OF THE STATS THAT ARE STARTING TO COME IN REGARDING THE TEXAS DEFENSE (SEE HARDBALL TIMES ARTICLES), I'D TRADE YOUNG AND SORIANO ASAP, AND TRY TO BUILD SOME DEFENSE UP THE MIDDLE AND IN THE OUTFIELD, EVEN IF THAT MEANS SACRIFICING OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION!!!

TORII HUNTER WOULD BE ESPECIALLY NICE TO HAVE...

NEXT, I'D PULL A MINOR COLORADO STRATEGY W/REGARDS TO PITCHING - GROUND BALL AND HIGH STRIKE OUT PITCHERS!!!  

I'D GET 2 CLOSERS, AND THEN A PROSPECT WITH CLOSER POTENTIAL WRITTEN ALL OVER HIM, AND PUT ONE CLOSER AND THE PROSPECT IN THE ROLE OF "FIREMAN", AND PAY THEM HEAVY BONUSES BASED ON ARP...

I'd keep Blalock, as he's young enough to correct his troubles, but I'm not confident he'll revert to his breakout year numbers.  He's going to settle into a .270/25/90 hitter.  He'll frustrate fans that want more and will depart after his current contract is up.

I'd aim to draft college pitchers that can help soon.  I'd like to draft college closers for near-future help in the bullpen.

In the meantime, I'd go sign some veterans that can help a little, but more to hold places for Thomas Diamond and players that will be drafted.  Moyer for 2yr/$5mil, Jason Johnson for 1/$1.2m, Moehler for 1/$1m, Tomko for 1/$800k.  Moyer would be in the rotation in the starter/mentor role.  Young behind him, Penn and Maine as the #3 & 4.  Open cast for the #5 by Tomko, Moehler and Johnson with the others being long-relief/spot start/injury-replacements.  I'd also hope that one of these 3 has a tremendous spring training and would be traded to someone that loses a starter in ST and is desperate for an arm.  I'd trade them for another good prospect to help the rebuilding.  Loe and Dominguez stay as bullpen arms until they prove they can pitch at the higher level and then move them into the rotation to replace the pitchers that will be moving on after next year.

Basically, the Rangers won't make the playoffs in the next 2 years.  They need pitching and have none.  That's John Hart's calling card - power hitters and hope your pitching holds up.  He can identify very good/great hitters but can't find the pitchers.  So, I'd take a few chances with veterans that are looking to bounce back, sign them cheap and trade them for pitching prospects.  

I have been a Kam Loe fan since he was dominating Cal Leaguers in 2003, and he's done nothing to make me think he can't be a solid #3 starter next season, behind Chris Young and either Kenny or a FA signee.  Juan Dominguez I'm less sure about.  Great stuff, but his inconsistency both on and off the field is a concern.  I'd consider trading him to an organization with more patience.

Benoit's starter/reliever splits make it pretty obvious what his future role is.  He might be effective in spot starts, but that's it.

I'm not overly worried about the rotation, since upper-level starting pitching is unquestionably the strength of the organization right now.  Odds are that at least one of the DVD boys will have a solid career in the big leagues.

My offseason plan/pipe dream would be:
-Trade Soriano for Cameron(if not in SD already)
-Trade Kevin Mench and Adrian Gonazalez for pitching prospects
-Sign Brian Giles approx. 3 years/$36 million
-Give Rafael Furcal his 5 years/$50 million, move MY back to 2nd
-Offer Kenny Rogers arbitration(worst case, you still get draft picks)
-Sign a Paul Byrd, or other cheap, strike-thrower type
-Find a way to dump Phil Nevin

Typical lineup(against RHP, at least):

SS-Furcal
2B-Young
RF-Giles
1B-Teixeira
CF-Cameron
LF-Dellucci
3B-Blalock
DH-Botts
C-Laird/Barajas
Bench: Matthews Jr, Kinsler

Rotation:
Kenny Rogers
Paul Byrd/other FA
Chris Young
Kam Loe
Juan Dominguez

This would make the team salary somewhere between $65-70 million.  The rotation isn't spectacular, but if Young and Loe are for real, then it's probably the most stable the Rangers have been in years.  If someone falters, one of the DVD boys should be ready to step in.

1. Dellucci RF
   
2. Lugo SS
   
3. Young 2B
   
4. Teixeira 3B
   
5. Mench LF
   
6. Gonzalez 1B
   
7. Botts/Nevin DH
   
8. Barajas C
   
9. Johnson CF

They won't make the playoffs, though the pitching and defense will be much better.

Granted, the guy is still putting up pretty decent numbers but he's clearly not meeting the expectations he created with his 2003 season...

Does anyone have a line on what went wrong? Is there any talk around TX as to an explanation?

Chris Young is your in-house ace, but I think you have to be careful with his arm.  He was a premiere starter after a stellar June last year, but really faded in July.  Keep his innings down early and I don't think he'll have a midsummer wilt this year.  He can't be an innings hog number one starter.  I think he's your number 2 guy, and you need to go out and lock up a long-term option for your ace.

I think that the best possible starter in that ballpark is someone with absolutely electric stuff, someone who doesn't rely on balls put into play to get guys out, which is why I think giving big money to Burnett is a good idea for Texas.  If you lock him up to a 4-year deal now, you'll get his age 29, 30, 31, 32 year old seasons, which means he's the rare player who might be valuable throughout his entire long-term deal.  Let's not forget that he's probably not 100% from TJ surgery yet.  I'd expect that next year and beyond he'll be more consistent and locate his devastating stuff better.  It's a big misconception that someone's going to "overpay" for Burnett this year.  He's actually a bargain if you can get him for Pavano money, which is entirely possible.  And unlike Pavano, this guy has the stuff to last in the AL, even in Texas.

At the third starter spot, trade for Kyle Lohse.  Minnesota still wants to unload him, and a Lohse for Mench trade works nicely for both teams.  Lohse is still young, and has a plus fastball, curveball, and slider.  His .299 BAA was partially due to a .296 BABIP last year; he was a better pitcher than the numbers indicated last year.  Plus he's young and cheap.

I really don't think Kam Loe is a special player, but he's a decent starter with deceptive motion.  For some reason, Kirk Saarloos comes to mind when I think of comparable pitchers.  He's your fourth guy, but like Saarloos, I don't think he'll stick because of low K-rates.  I saw him pitch against Minnesota this year, in what was probably his best game (8 shutout innings) and wasn't very impressed.  Even when he was dominating, he didn't look like a dominating pitcher.  I could be wrong, but I think he's at best a swingman/spot starter in the long run.

For your fifth starter, put Joaquin Benoit in the rotation.  He's got good stuff and really improved as a reliever/swingman this year.  I'm a huge believer in putting high-strikeout swingmen/spot starters at the back of your rotation, because 180 innings of 4.00 ERA and a K/9 of over 7.5 (which is the type of starter I think Benoit has the possibility of being) is very valuable.  And there's always the chance he becomes Texas's Johan Santana.  Benoit, like Heilman, is an intriguing pitcher because he has the numbers and stuff to break out as a starter if given the chance.  There's no risk in giving him that chance.

Your rotation ends up being:
Burnett (~10 million)
Young (500K)
Lohse (~3 million)
Loe (300K)
Benoit (400K)

This isn't a group that will turn heads, but with Texas's offense, you don't need a great rotation to compete in the AL west.  If Texas makes strides with its rotation, I can see them finishing 2nd to Oakland in the AL West, with the Angels a close third.

For the 14.2 million (the price of one Kevin Brown), that's as good a rotation as you're gonna get.  In the long term, I'd look for Burnett and Young to anchor this staff, with either Lohse, Loe, or Benoit hopefully becoming a #3 guy.  By then you'll have Thomas Diamond and Edson Volquez ready to take the lower spots.

Here's the moves I would make:

Trade Joaquin Arias to the Diamondbacks for Brandon Webb. If they don't bite on that, I would throw another prospect in the deal. Webb is one of the best groundball pitchers around, and the Rangers need that more than another good infielder.

Trade Adrian Gonzalez and Gerald Laird to the Padres for Adam Eaton, giving the Padres a good young 1B and a catching option with Hernandez leaving.

Trade Kevin Mench to the Pirates for Mark Redman. There has been speculation that the Royals are interested in Mench, but I think Redman is better than any pitcher we can get from KC. Pittsburgh will want to clear way for their young prospect pitchers.

Trade John Hudgins and Laynce Nix to the Marlins for Juan Pierre. The Marlins will be in fire-sale mode this off-season, and this gives us the speedy CF that leads off that we've needed.

Trade Alfonso Soriano and a player to be named later to the Dodgers for Joel Guzman. The Dodgers are interested in Sori, and we need to jump on that oppotunity by getting Guzman, who isn't untouchable to L.A.

Sign Jamey Wright to a one-year deal. He has been bad in Colorado, but that will make his asking price pretty low. He's a groundball pitcher.

Sign a cheap fourth outfielder, maybe Michael Tucker or Dustan Mohr.

Rotation:
Brandon Webb
Chris Young
Adam Eaton
Mark Redman
Kam Loe/Jamey Wright

Lineup:
Juan Pierre CF
David Delucci LF
Michael Young SS
Mark Teixeira 1B
Hank Blalock 3B
Phil Nevin RF/DH, Jason Botts DH, or Tucker/Mohr/Other RF
Nevin, Botts, or Tucker/Mohr/RF
Ian Kinsler 2B
Rod Barajas C

Whenever Guzman is ready (the prize of the Soriano deal), we bring him up and stick him in the outfield, with Nevin and Botts splitting DH at-bats and the newly-signed OF coming off the bench.

I'd be happy with that.

3 choices
Sign him to a 3 year contract that buys out his arbitration years. How much per year?

Offer him arbitration every year for the next 3 years and risk pissing him off. This makes it so the arbitrator sets his salary.

Offer him a 10 year contract. Scott Boras has said it's either a 10 yr. deal or a 3 yr. deal. If you go for 10 years how much should the total contract be worth?

I would either go 3 years @ 10 mil/season
Or
10 years for a total contract of 120 mill. 12 million/season with bonus money for every silver slugger/gold glove he wins.

This year he won both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards and he isn't even in his "prime" years yet. He will some day get paid a fortune and be worth every penny.