Guys I Was Wrong About, Part One

by John Sickels on Oct 22, 2025 2:00 PM EDT in News

Prospects I Was Wrong About

Ruben Rivera, the Enron of Prospects

I learned a long time ago that the best thing to do when you are wrong about something is to admit it. You can't learn otherwise. So once a year or so I go back and review players that I was wrong about.

Today I want to go back and review the very first Top 50 prospects list I ever did, back in the 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook. Here is the list, with commentary on guys I was wrong about and why.

Johnny Damon, OF
Paul Wilson, RHP: Didn't turn into an ace of course, so in that sense I was wrong about him. But this is mostly because the Mets burned him out early.
Andruw Jones, OF
Derek Jeter, SS
Ruben Rivera, OF: BZZT! Wrong! Ruben Rivera, the Enron of prospects. I thought he could be another Bobby Bonds, but he let the strike zone get away from him, and never showed he had the work ethic needed to succeed in the majors.
Billy Wagner, LHP
Jason Schmidt, RHP
Karim Garcia, OF: Turned into an OK journeyman, but not a star. A guy with old-player skills.
Scott Rolen, 3B
Bobby Abreu, OF
Jimmy Haynes, RHP: Showed excellent command in the minors, but wasn't able to throw strikes consistently at the major league level. Had a few decent years, but not nearly as good as I expected.
Jose Valentin the catcher: changed name to Javier. Has turned into a decent journeyman catcher, but I thought he could be a star.
Steve Gibralter, OF: BZZT!! Super Wrong! Career ruined by injuries.
Todd Walker, 2B
Shannon Stewart, OF
Mike Sweeney, C
Jeff Suppan, RHP
Jason Kendall, C
Vlad Guerrero, OF
George Arias, 3B: BZZT! Wrong! Old player skill guy, topped out in Triple-A, although he did have some productive seasons in Japan. Shaky plate discipline the main culprit.
Alan Benes, RHP
Darin Erstad, OF
Nomar Garciaparra, SS
Rocky Coppinger, RHP: BZZT! Wrong! Undone by injuries and control problems.
Gabe Alvarez, 3B: BZZT! Wrong! Topped out in Triple-A and was hampered by injuries.
Jay Payton, OF
Jose Malave, OF: BZZT! Wrong! Injuries, bad defense, showed poor strike zone judgment in the majors.
Jermaine Dye, OF
Matt Lawton, OF
Arquimedez Pozo, 2B: BZZT! Wrong! Played well in Triple-A, but never received legitimate chance in the majors. Injuries and defense were problems.
Chris Snopek, 3B: BZZT! Topped out in Triple-A, and didn't seize job as a utilityman.
Richard Hidalgo, OF
Trey Beamon, OF: BZZT Wrong! Power didn't develop, lost his speed, had injuries.
Uggy Urbina, RHP
Derrick Gibson, OF: BZZT! Wrong! Strike zone judgment never came around.
Bartolo Colon, RHP
Ryan McGuire, 1B: BZZT! Topped out in Triple-A, was unable to bring his line-drive hitting skills up to par in the majors, never developed the power of a first baseman.
Terrell Wade, LHP: Had some major league success but blew his arm out quickly.
Matt Drews, RHP: BZZT!! WRONG! Was rushed to Triple-A, lost his control, blew out his arm.
Donnie Sadler, OF-2B: BZZT! Couldn't hit major league pitching.
Derrek Lee, 1B
Ed Renteria, SS
Wilton Guerrero, 2B: Not as good as expected but did OK at times.
Chan Ho Park, RHP
Todd Greene, OF: Not as good as expected but did OK at times. Decision to make him a catcher likely inhibited his development as a hitter.
Eric Ludwick, RHP: BZZT! Ruined by injuries and control problems.
Amaury Telemaco, RHP:
Jim Bonnici, 1B: BZZT!!!! Old player skill guy, topped out as Triple-A slugger.
Luis Andujar, RHP: BZZT! Blew his arm out.
Roger Cedeno, OF

In my mind, the biggest busts were Ruben Rivera, Steve Gibralter, George Arias, Rocky Coppinger, Gabe Alvarez, Jose Malave, Arqui Pozo, Chris Snopek, Trey Beamon, Derrick Gibson, Ryan McGuire, Matt Drews, Eric Ludwick, Donnie Sadler, Jim Bonnici, and Luis Andujar. Let's break this down by category of failure.

Career Ruined by Injuries:
Rocky Coppinger, RHP
Matt Drews, RHP
Luis Andujar, RHP
Eric Ludwick, RHP
Steve Gibralter, OF
Old Player Skill Bust:
Jim Bonnici, 1B
Jose Malave, OF
George Arias, 3B
Tool Player Bust
Ruben Rivera, OF
Derrick Gibson, OF
Trey Beamon, OF
Just Didn't Hit
Donnie Sadler, 2B-OF
Ryan McGuire, 1B
Chris Snopek, 3B
Miscellaneous (Got hurt at the wrong time, never got a chance, bad timing, etc.)
Arqui Pozo, 2B
Gabe Alvarez, 3B

LESSONS LEARNED:
A) Beware of guys with extreme old player skills.
B) Beware of guys with great tools but poor plate discipline.
C) Beware of guys who haven't hit yet but who scouts think will hit in the future.
D) Injuries will bite pitchers in the butt.

We will look at other seasons later this week.

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Comments

Interesting study...

I wonder if you will find a player-type you consistently overvalue.

by kenshin1 on Oct 22, 2025 3:40 PM EDT 0 recs

why

that's why I'm doing this.

by John Sickels on Oct 22, 2025 3:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

JOSE MALAVE

THAT'S OK, JOHN, WHEN I SAW MALAVE IN LYNCHBURG I THOUGHT HE'D BE SOMETHING, TOO...

IN FACT, I DIDN'T SEE SUCH ANOTHER SURE THING UNITL I SAW THIS LANKY KID NAMED "VLAD" IN HARRISBURG A YEAR OR SO LATER...

ALSO, YOU CAN'T BEAT YOURSELF UP ABOUT THE INJURY ONES, THAT'S JUST NOBODY'S FAULT!!!

by TOLAXOR on Oct 22, 2025 3:53 PM EDT 0 recs

Ones that got away

John

Who SHOULD have been on the list that you didn't include?

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Oct 22, 2025 4:40 PM EDT 0 recs

Do you really want a list?

I think that would be everybody who was a minor leaguer/early rook back then who has done well since. Probably 3-5 per team. No offense...I understand why you'd normally ask, say, if it were players from a draft class or something.

by tmelander on Oct 22, 2025 8:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Good points

Ok, you're right. It would be 2-3 per team who make it that aren't listed.

I guess I was going for the ONE who got away.

Frankly, I can't think of who it could be.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Oct 23, 2025 12:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

Maggs, for one

Magglio didn't make these kinds of lists in the mid-90s, as I understand it. Then again, his minor league numbers wouldn't have supported it either.

by Azteca on Oct 23, 2025 5:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

Wilton Guererro

I remember Wilton Guererro! When he first came up with the Dodgers, I was so scared he'd be this huge offensive force for years to come. I wonder what happened? I guess he swung at everything without quite the eye-hand coordination of his brother?

One of the most hilarious baseball stories I've ever heard involves Wilton. Maybe I think it's hilarious because it also involved the Dodgers? Anyway, one night Wilton shattered his bat on a ground ball to the infield. Instead of running to first base, he scrambled out onto the field gathering up the pieces of the bat. You guessed it! It had cork in it! He then tried to claim he didn't know it was corked. LOL!

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 22, 2025 5:40 PM EDT 0 recs

Corky

He earned the nickname Corky after that.

by count sutton on Oct 22, 2025 8:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

he was the last batter I faced

as a professional pitcher. Struck him out looking on a 2-2 change-up.

by So Cal Bob on Oct 25, 2025 11:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

great article

using the lessons learned, which prospects would you avoid today because of reasons A,B,C, & D?

while reading this, these players popped in my head

A) Beware of guys with extreme old player skills.
- couldnt think of any, but im sure theyre out there

B) Beware of guys with great tools but poor plate discipline.
- lastings milledge?

C) Beware of guys who haven't hit yet but who scouts think will hit in the future.
- hanley ramirez, chris nelson, james loney, fred lewis, josh fields..

D) Injuries will bite pitchers in the butt. - -Greg Miller, Adam Miller, Clint Everts, Francisco Liriano, Jeff Neimann, who knows who else..

by ufo on Oct 22, 2025 5:46 PM EDT 0 recs

Fred Lewis

There are plenty of reasons to beware of Fred Lewis. He's a little on the old side. He looks a little awkward at the plate. He's really struggled on D. It's somewhat inaccurate to say he hasn't hit yet. He's had a OBP approximately 100 points higher than his BA at every step. He hit over .300 in 2004 with San Jose. From June 1 on, he hit over .300 in 2005 with Norwich in a very tough league for hitters. He hasn't hit for power, but if he's a future leadoff guy, he doesn't have to. IMO, he's poised for a big season in Fresno next year.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 22, 2025 8:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

re

A) Beware of guys with extreme old player skills.

Hermida.

lastings milledge?

Wouldn't be a minor league ball thread without someone doubting Milledge...

by OFF on Oct 23, 2025 1:53 AM EDT up 0 recs

Homer Bush

how did you rate this guy when he was a prospect? Dind't he retire and come back? Maybe a prospect retro is in store for this guy! wink wink

by wright5reyes7 on Oct 22, 2025 5:55 PM EDT 0 recs

Extremely Old Player Skills

With these guys, do you think that we don't see the kind of player they are until it's too late and they've turned out to be busts? Do you think there's really a way to pick them out?

by MontrealMets on Oct 22, 2025 7:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Confused

Sorry. but a layman here. What exactly are "old-player" skill sets and how is it that they contribute to prospects failing?

by ralphwiggum774 on Oct 22, 2025 10:42 PM EDT 0 recs

old player

Old player skills are power and walks, combined with lack of speed, and/or mediocre defense, and mediocre or poor overall athleticism. The classic Old Player Skill guys is Alvin Davis, the Mariners first baseman in the early 80s who faded very quickly.

Hermida doesn't count because he is too athletic and too good on defense.

by John Sickels on Oct 23, 2025 10:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

Barton?

Does he fit the old player skills guy? I've never seen him, but I thought I've heard his defense and athleticism are lacking... another guy I can think of is Conor Jackson.

by jc3 on Oct 23, 2025 10:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

Barton

Could certainly fit in that category.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 23, 2025 11:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

yes

Yes, I agree, Barton has old-player skills. He may not age well.

by John Sickels on Oct 23, 2025 11:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

hmm

i think i disagree on barton. he's really rather athletic--just because he had to move from catcher doesn't mean he's a lumbering oaf. i don't know too much about his defense at 1B or in the OF, but he's barely played there for one season, so it's too early to jump on him for that.

jackson might be that kind of guy, but it's hard to complain about somebody who hits for that high an average (in addition to tons of walks and good power). i was thinking maybe somebody like dan johnson--he's a fine major league player now, but it's unlikely he'll ever be much better, and it may not be long before he starts to get worse.

by jpahk on Oct 23, 2025 11:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

barton

Johnson is more old-player than Barton, yes.

by John Sickels on Oct 23, 2025 11:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

Prince

Prince Fielder seems like the prototypical player with old-player skills.

Chuck Lamar, you're fired- Stuart Sternburg

by Tyler on Oct 23, 2025 1:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

yes

Yes, a very good example.

by John Sickels on Oct 23, 2025 1:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hermida and Nelson

"A) Beware of guys with extreme old player skills.

Hermida"

Hermida is way too athletic to be considered an old-player skills guy. He has old player skills but only becuase he has a lot of skills in general.

Also it isn't fair to throw Nelson in the hasnt hit yet category since hes only had one injury plauged half year. And let me tell you...hamstring injuries (which i think he had) SUCK

by nms on Oct 23, 2025 2:29 AM EDT 0 recs

Hermida

"Hermida is way too athletic to be considered an old-player skills guy. "

I disagree. I watched him all year, and he doesn't strike me as being particularly athletic. He definitely doesn't run well, at all.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Oct 24, 2025 2:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Enron

The Enron of prospects.....that's good.

by Goodfella on Oct 23, 2025 9:25 AM EDT 0 recs

Top 10

While River was a pretty big bomb, and Wilson has been pretty dissapointing, the seven of the top ten that you didn't miss are quite good. Damon, Jones, Jeter, Wagner, Schmidt, Rolen and Abreu are all All-Stars, and a couple of those might even enshrined in Cooperstown someday(Jeter and Jones certainly project there, barring injury).

by IanCobb on Oct 23, 2025 3:28 PM EDT 0 recs

brandon sing old player type example to a T

great power/lots of walks/no defense, speed or hit for avg.

by cincod1 on Oct 24, 2025 9:21 AM EDT 0 recs

i'm a cubs fan so it's easy to use their system

for examples...any thoughts?

LESSONS LEARNED:
A) Beware of guys with extreme old player skills. Brandon Sing, Dopirak.
B) Beware of guys with great tools but poor plate discipline. Corey Patterson.
C) Beware of guys who haven't hit yet but who scouts think will hit in the future. Bobby Hill, Richard Lewis, Hee Sop Choi, David Kelton, Jason Dubois
D) Injuries will bite pitchers in the butt.
Angel Guzman, Kerry Wood...

Ouch.

by cincod1 on Oct 24, 2025 9:25 AM EDT 0 recs

old player skills

I wouldn't take the old player skills thing too far. First base is a place were athleticism is not demanded. If the prospect is a first base prospect then I don't see why you dismiss him b/c he has old player skills. Thats taking the "lesson learned" a little to far...

I would say if the position requires athleticism and the only good things you can say about the player are old player skills attributes then maybe that is a red flag.

However, otherwise, I think old player skills just means there peak is likely to appear earlier and the career will have less longevity than the typical blue chip prospect. It doesn't mean they can't have an exceptional peak.

"If you don't like Torey Lovullo, then you don't like baseball." Sparky Anderson

by natsfan2005 on Oct 24, 2025 10:37 AM EDT 0 recs

What I'd like to see

.. is how many players from the next 50 or so made it.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Oct 24, 2025 2:02 PM EDT 0 recs

Old player's skills

Another classic example was Phil Plantier. One element is a tendency to strike out a lot. Adam Dunn might fall in this class.

Daric Barton does not strike out enough to fall within the category, and his power is not overwhelming at this point. He's a pure hitter, and these guys tend to have long careers.

As for the next 50, I don't think John did a top 100 list, back then. He has been doing 50/50 (pitchers/hitters) lists for a while now, and it would be fun to look at the first ones and compare the success rate on the first 25/25 and with the second 25/25 of each list.

by Mike Green on Oct 24, 2025 3:40 PM EDT 0 recs

Where is Pozo?

Is he still playing somewhere? I lost track of him in Japan.

by Vlad on Oct 24, 2025 3:45 PM EDT 0 recs

John

How about players that you valued too low? The thought occurred to me when I saw Vladdy down at 19.

by Roger on Oct 25, 2025 3:51 PM EDT 0 recs

You want old players skills?

Jack Cust. Especially in that he never amounted to anything whatsoever.

by walk off bunt on Oct 25, 2025 10:29 PM EDT 0 recs

Before we get carried away...

comparing Barton, Fielder, Conor Jackson, Hermida to the "old player skills" busts, here are the three guys John put into his OPS (Old Player Skills, fittingly) category:

1. James Bonnici - age 24 in 1996 - cannot find 1995 stats, although he's listed on a prospects card with Billy Owens, Richie Sexson, and Daryle Ward ( http://members.aol.com/rmckins724/96topps/card.htm). I think his career line coming into 96 was .291/.399/.439.

Went on to hit .292/.367/.493 in the PCL at age 24.

2. Jose Malave - age 25 in 1996 - again, 1995 stats are not in The Cube. :( I found a posting of Pawtucket stats for that season, and he hit .270/.333/.531. He had 23 HR and 12 DO.

Went on to hit .271/.323/.465 at Pawtucket (a tough place to hit), but only 155 AB.

3. George Arias - age 24 in 1996. In 1995, he hit .279/.357/.527 in Midland. He had 30 HR and 19 DO, but had 10 triples as well.

Went on to hit .337/.388/.547 in the hitter's paradise at Vancouver. Only 243 AB. I'm not really clear why a guy with 10 triples who played 3b had "old players skills", or how a prognasticator was supposed to foresee him flopping. The HR:DO ratio is about the only thing that seems concerning, and it's about 1:1 if you include the triples.

Interestingly, while searching for some of these guys, I found that someone analyzed John's prospect ratings from the 96 season in 2004. http://www.all-baseball.com/ducksnorts/archives/020375.html is the URL if anyone is interested.

Anyway, comparing these guys with the 21 y.o. and under guys who draw walks and hit homers this year (I know, Jackson's a bit older) doesn't seem to be a good fit. All three of these busts were much older, and seemingly much less widely considered as good prospects.

by BobbyMac on Jan 10, 2026 5:37 PM EST 0 recs