I had a chance to catch the Cavaliers at Louisville on Friday, and with so many professional prospects on display, I thought I'd post some unadorned observations.
Conditions: Frigid. Temps never got out of the 40s, and we were sitting just off center behind home toward 1B, which was in the shade by the time we got there around 5:30 (6 p.m. start).
The Draw: The chance to see three potential Rd1 picks in Louisville's LF Corey Ray, RHP Kyle Funkhouser and Virginia's Connor Jones, as well as top 2017s in Louisville 1B/LHP Brendan McKay and Virginia 1B Pavin Smith.
Connor Jones has been a favorite of mine since seeing him pitch in the 2012 Perfect Game All-American Classic and Under Armour game. He showed a promising 2-seamer and slider in both events, a sturdy and projectable frame, and advanced feel for his age. Through an NPA (look it up) training program, including weighted ball work, he increased his velocity significantly between his freshman and senior years, developing a borderline major league offering in his low-90s sinker.
Jones has made positive strides in terms of his physical development and delivery. Starting from UVA's signature bent knee "athletic" stance with his hands down by his waist, he raises and breaks by his back shoulder, rotates enough to show his number, and takes a reasonable stride firing from a 3/4 slot. His takeaway has been modified significantly. Whereas he used to be long in back, he now coordinates his arm circle with his trunk rotation to hide the ball from the hitter. Some will quibble with the stride and the lack of a back leg push, as his arm seems to be doing a fair amount of work, but the arm is free and easy and he repeats well. He lands square to the plate in excellent fielding position, and recorded two outs on comebackers in this game, one a high-ish chopper that he fielded up around his head.
He started the game with uncharacteristic velocity, posting a steady stream of 94 mph FBs, none lower than 93, t96; I was ready to chalk the stadium gun up as hot. Every pitch was a FB with the exception of the last pitch, a changeup that induced a grounder from UofL 2B Nick Solak for the third out. He struggled with the edges of the zone in the 2nd, got into a jam and surrendered the first of three runs. From the 3rd in he settled into the low-90s, touching 93/94 when he needed extra, and was still hitting 90 with ease when he came out to start the 8th. The 2-seamer lived in the bottom of the zone, and showed good tail, allowing him to throw it inside to lefties. He also showed an ability to elevate at 94/95, and got two of this four whiffs on strike three swings and misses. He showed a disciplined approach, making his opponent hit his FB before mixing in his secondaries.
Louisville ran out a lefty-heavy lineup, and it was fascinating to see how he pitched them. Rather than limiting his slider usage, it was his go-to secondary. The slider lived mostly around 83, with sharp cutting action at the end. The command of the pitches was above average as he threw it to the back foot of opposite-handed hitters, eliciting several bad swings. To righties it was pure death, starting over the plate and darting away from the bat head at the last minute. The change was of the straight variety, but parked at almost the same velocity as the slider (83/84), and was effective for it. It's a true third pitch that played up through command and sequencing. Late in the game he pulled out a bowling ball of a splitter at 87. Thrown for a strike it's a groundball or foul tip factory, and he can throw it out of the zone and get swings.
Over all it's a 3/4 profile with a chance for more. He's well put together, especially in the lower half, but there's more good weight and strength to come. Whoever drafts him may look to get the lower half more involved, and that could get him sitting a tick higher at maturity. Mostly he just needs to work on refining his command, as all four pitches showed future avg to plus traits. His mound demeanor was extremely calm, even (especially?) when the heat was on, and he competed his butt off without his best stuff. It was inspiring to see him come out for the 8th as we shivered in the stands. His performance also looks good in context. UofL won the series with offensive outbursts of 11 and 15 runs on Saturday and Sunday, so holding them to three runs on Friday may have been a bit of a coup.
I hadn't seen Corey Ray since his own Under Armor appearance, and at the time it seemed to me that he was an invitee to the Chicago-based event more as a homeboy than a talent. Well, shame on me, because he's made himself into a physical specimen who can swing it. His first two tilts with Jones resulted in screaming, tailing fliners to left center, the first hanging up to give the LF time to get under it and the second carrying to the base of the wall for an RBI double. Ray's 1 for 4 line is deceptive, as he battled every time up, including spoiling Jones' splitter several times in a row until he could yank a ground out to the right side that scored a runner from third. He's earned his draft buzz, showing great plate coverage and power to all fields.
Where the questions come are with the defense. I came to the game wondering why an athlete with Ray's speed was playing LF, and all was revealed in the middle innings as I watched him overrun then dive under a liner to the gap. Tools? Check. Instincts and routes? Not so much. My dad, who attended with me and my daughter, said he'd seen the same thing the last time he'd been to a game a few weeks ago. Ray's bat should play on a corner if necessary, but it's hard to imagine a team drafting him Top 5 that doesn't envision him as a CF.
Virginia's big bats on the day were JR C Matt Thaiss and Smith. Thaiss got UVA on the board with a three-run homer, and showed himself to be a tough out. He almost had a second homer late in the game, just missing on a fly to right center. He looked okay receiving, especially having to handle Jones' array of moving pitches. UofL's Patterson Stadium uses a synthetic field material, including the batter's boxes, and it may serve to deaden balls that bounce around the plate. He didn't look great on a pitch out, showing a slow transfer and an accurate but low throw that met the runner at second and skipped into center to advance the runner that Ray eventually sacrificed in. He could go early Day Two, with the round dependent on how much a team believes he can catch.
Smith had a single and his own three-run homer in the AB following Thaiss' long fly. Smith's was a laser over the RF wall, and though it was only his third homer of the season, there's power in there which probably plays down due to his all fields approach. He's a very tough out -- he, Thaiss and slick-fielding 2B Ernie Clement had conspired to post a combined seven strikeouts through 23 games -- who came into Friday with a 17:2 BB:K. He's a lean and well-conditioned athlete who shows good wheels for a 1B. He moves well around the bag and makes a great target on throws. If he starts tapping into his power without losing his approach, he's a guy.
My blunt takeaway on Funkhouser, a 2015 DNS, is that he's probably cost himself some money. I don't know anyone who thought that it was a good idea for him to try and improve his stock in a more competitive 2016 pitching pool, but try he has, and it isn't going well. I'll let the reader go read the stat line, but the anecdotal evidence supports it. The FB is solid average, with velo down from its former mid-90s heights to sit in the low-90s, and ordinary life. He could hump up for bigger velo, but his high water mark was an angry 96 on the first pitch after Thaiss took him deep, and it appeared that he may have been dialing things back to throw strikes.
The delivery is relatively clean, and there are flashes of good stuff to tempt the optimistic. The change may have been his best pitch on the day, coming from good arm speed and featuring late drop. It paired well with the FB. The breaking ball showed immature shape early, but he threw a few sharp ones later that got bad swings. Based on this look it's hard to see anything but a back of rotation ceiling, but there's a lot of baseball left, and I'd like to see him on a warm day before dooming him.
Devin Hairston is the Cards' diminutive SS -- there was an amusing Mutt & Jeff quality watching him give way to 6'5" UVA SS Daniel Pinero -- and he showed solid actions in the field and stroked two hits. He and Ray were the only UofL hitters who looked comfortable against Jones. JR 2B Nick Solak was of interest as he came into the day hitting north of .460 with a 2:1 BB:K, but he had to leave with a hand injury after one PA. McKay has been a great find for UofL as both a pitcher and hitter, but he didn't show much in this outing. Both teams featured sound defense, catching just about everything they got to with the exception of Ray's gaffe. Note of the four relievers used showed impact stuff.
If there's a player of interest that didn't receive a comment, let me know in the comments and I'll try to dredge something up.
