Prospect of the Day: Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees

by John Sickels on Sep 1, 2025 8:01 AM EDT

Prospect of the Day: Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees

The Yankees promoted prospect Jesus Montero to the major league roster on Thursday. He's been on a hot streak lately for Triple-A Scranton, and fans in the Bronx have been awaiting his arrival with anticipation.

Montero has been one of the highest-profile prospects in the minor leagues for several years. Signed for $1.65 million out of Venezuela in 2006, he exploded on the scene with an excellent 2008 season for Low-A Charleston, hitting .326/.376/.491 with 17 homers at age 18. He was even better in 2009, hitting a combined .337/.389/.562 in 347 at-bats split between High-A and Double-A, although his season ended early due to a broken finger. In 2010 he hit .289/.353/.517 with 21 homers in Triple-A, at the tender age of 20.

With no room for him on the Yankees roster, Montero was sent back to Triple-A for 2011, to get regular at-bats and work on his defense (more on that below). He had a fast start with a .365 average in April, but slumped in May and June to the point where observers felt he was discouraged due to lack of opportunity. True or not, he heated up at mid-season, slugging .514 in July then hitting .308/.370/.604 in August. He's hit five homers in his last 10 games.

Overall, he's hit .288/.348/.467 this year, with 18 homers, 36 walks, and 98 strikeouts in 420 at-bats. It isn't as good as his 2010 performance, but we are still talking about a 21-year-old in Triple-A.

The 6-3, 235 pound Montero has everything needed to be a force at the plate, including power to all fields, bat speed and strength to spare. His strike zone judgment isn't perfect, but his strikeout rate is reasonably low for a young power hitter, and while he could need some adjustment time, scouts anticipate he'll hit for average in the long run. Even a conservative estimate projects him as an above-average power hitter for years to come, and it is easy to envision him as an MVP-type producer at his peak, hitting .300 with strong home run production.

Any doubts about Montero center on his glove. He has a strong throwing arm, but his throwing mechanics are less than ideal and he's not especially effective against basestealers. He caught just 20% this year for Scranton, and 21% in his minor league career. Other aspects of his defense have gradually improved. He's steadily cut down on passed balls (15 last year but just seven this year) and errors, and he has improved his mobility behind the plate. However, despite the improvement in his statistics, most scouts still rate his defense as mediocre at best, and as he gets older what flexibility he has will likely decline. There has been some talk of making him a first baseman, but he's never played the position and that won't help him much in New York, anyhow.

In the end, Montero will likely spend much of his career at DH, and there's nothing wrong with that if his bat develops as expected. Given his sweet spot on the age curve, he should develop into a premium offensive force. Even if his glove never improves further, his bat will keep him in the lineup for a long time.

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Comments

I still think he will end up at catcher for the Yankees for several years. Maybe not a good one, but they’ve long gotten by without a good catcher defensively.

by limozeen on Sep 1, 2025 10:59 AM EDT reply actions

I agree

I think he can be a slightly below average catcher for at least a few years, and can probably play adequately (given his offense) at catcher through his arb years.

by cookiedabookie on Sep 4, 2025 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Russell Martin is arb eligible

He has less than 6 yrs service time after this season so he’s under team control. Posada is a free agent. Seems like a time share between Montero and Martin would be a pretty nice fit for NY. Might have to roster a 3rd catcher most of the time (Cervelli?) but it wouldn’t be much different that the situation this year (Martin & Cervelli with Posada DHing)… other than Girardi being unafraid to use Montero in the Posada role at catcher somewhat liberally (30% of the time? While also spelling ARod, Tex & Jeter more frequently?). Also, I assume Montero would hit more than Posada did this year!

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 4, 2025 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, let me say this...

Assuming injuries didn’t force my hand otherwise, I would at least be content to start the 2012 season this way and then see how it shakes out.

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 4, 2025 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Honestly, I can't picture Montero being much worse than Cervelli

At least not enough to warrant three catchers on the roster. Cervelli may have an edge in game calling at this point (don’t know if this is/can be quantified), but given time that edge would probably fade. Have Martin and Montero share duties behind the dish - say 60% of games started by Martin, with late inning defensive replacement, and 40% of games started by Montero. Use those 2 of every five days to rest A-Rod, Jeter, and anyone else at DH.

by cookiedabookie on Sep 5, 2025 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not any big admirer of Cervelli's...

but if you plan to play one of Montero or Martin at Catcher and the other at DH you won’t have any back up catcher and will lose the DH if there’s an injury or if you need to pinch run for one of them. It doesn’t need to be Cervelli, but carrying a 3rd catcher makes a lot of sense.

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 5, 2025 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Montero is only 21, but it feels like we’ve been hearing about him forever. Let’s see what he can do in the majors, finally.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Sep 1, 2025 12:24 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Carlos Lee?

John, I’m curious what you think of Dave Cameron’s points about Montero. Dave points to Montero’s body as being much more mature than a typical 21 year-old, to the point where there is little room to improve his power. Dave feels like Montero is likely to have a Carlos Lee-like career: power and batting average, but no defense and little patience. At least, that’s my read on Cameron’s opinion. What do you think of the body and how it impacts his future projection?

by Ben Hall on Sep 1, 2025 7:10 PM EDT reply actions

If thats the case the Yanks should be thrilled

His career line is 286/339/492, his 5 year peak is 296/353/527

There isn’t an organization that wouldn’t take that, even if it means he’s shuttled between Ca/1b/DH

by ScottAZ on Sep 2, 2025 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

That works out to just a 114 wRC+

That’s good overall, producing around 11-13 runs above average offensively, but unless he’s mostly playing C his positional adjustment will eat away most of that value. Throw in probable below average baserunning and you’re down to a league average player at 1B/DH. Considering the Yankees payroll, league average isn’t going to cut it at the two most easily replaceable defensive positions.

by nixa37 on Sep 2, 2025 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I should say playing fairly regularly at C, not mostly

by nixa37 on Sep 2, 2025 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

So, you mean to tell me that a league average DH produces a 296/353/527 line? Yowee! Didn’t realize we were back in the heart of the Steroid Era! >:[

Looking through a realistic lens, Montero is fairly well blocked in the Yankee org unless he plays C or learns to fake the OF (post-Swisher). A-Rod’s going to need to move to DH and Teixeira is locked up for a good long while. Of course, it seems entirely possible that the Yankees, having just won 5 rings in the Posada era, will live with Montero’s defense if his bat is something like Carlos Lee’s.

by GuyinNY on Sep 3, 2025 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Obviously not, I was simply talking about Lee's career line

Talking about the 5 year peak line, you’re looking at something like a 3 WAR player, though I’m taking the line relative to the league at the time and a .296/.353/.527 line would be worth a lot more now than it was when Lee was doing it.

I won’t speak to Montero’s defense because I’m not in any sort of position to judge it. I was really just responding to the idea that any team in the majors would be willing to take Lee’s line at C/1B/DH. I don’t think its necessarily cut and dry for elite teams who don’t trust Montero much at C.

by nixa37 on Sep 4, 2025 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Cost

I think that for the foreseeable future, if we assume Montero to be a 3 WAR player who is heavily tilted towards offense and costs 400k, then yes, Montero would have a very, very sizable market.

If Montero’s bat plays as expected (mauling lefties as he learns to handle righties) and his defense continues on its present track (somewhere just slightly above “passable” at catcher), then yes, there’s a tremendous market.

by GuyinNY on Sep 5, 2025 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

You're changing the conversation

I simply said not every team would be willing to run a 2-3 WAR player out there if he’s really only playing 1B and DH. Obviously there would be a ton of teams interested in him while he’s cheap, but that’s not exactly something that comes into play for the elite big market teams at positions where they can load up on offense. And I wouldn’t just assume he’s a 3 WAR player for the next 3 years while he’s actually earning 400k like you do.

by nixa37 on Sep 5, 2025 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions

He moves better than you'd think if you read the scouting reports.

He’s also more lean than you’d expect going off of scouting reports. You can tell he’s going to be slow, but he went 1st to home tonight well enough.

I didn’t see any defense. He looks like a sturdy enough fellow for C, but that’s all I’ve got.

by SenorGato on Sep 1, 2025 10:58 PM EDT reply actions

he does appear to have slimmed down a bit this year

by mrkupe on Sep 2, 2025 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Was saying this on twitter. looks like he lost at least 10 lbs from when I saw him in the spring.

I had him timed 4.6 going hard to 1B in March. Very bad runner. Looked a bit faster last night, but still below average I’d wager.

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Sep 2, 2025 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Scored from first last night, right?

Definitely looked slimmer than ST and moved better than I expected. His slide into home was downright athletic. And I’d be happy if he was “only” Carlos Lee as well, especially if he didn’t have to kill his team in LF to deliver that production.

by blackoutyears on Sep 2, 2025 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions