2011 Prospect Predictions with your gut (August Update) includes May Update

he’s got 17 in the 21 innings since he returned from his hiatus

Lee has looked pretty good in the games I’ve watched. Very diverse pitch mix, which is unusual for his a pitcher his age. I think he’s been living 90-92 mph this year, but he’s bumped his velocity significantly higher than that on his second gear.

I think both Lee and Taillon end up at Grade B+ at the end of the year. If Lee comes out ahead, it’s going to be because he’s a more complete arm, although his control needs tightening. I’d say Taillon beats him on pure stuff, though.

1. Julio Teheran struggles severely with his command next year, and is shut down twice (once in May, once at the end of the season) with shoulder fatigue. Medical checkups reveal some rotator cuff inflammation, but surgery is avoided.

WRONG. Teheran has stayed healthy, and his command seems to be in good order for the most part. Interestingly, one of the concerns against him remains his breaking ball, but the optimists claim that what holds it back is its command.

2. Simon Castro makes the Padres starting rotation out of spring training. He gets crushed and is demoted to AAA Portland in early June, where his ERA is even higher than in the majors but slightly better peripherals give some hope.

WRONG. I came close to almost directly nailing it, as this is basically Castro’s season if you replace “Padres” with “Tucson” and “AAA” with “AA San Antonio”. But I can’t give it to myself.

3. Luke Jackson will have serious helium next year and establish himself as the top prospect in the Rangers’ system. He will be helped by continued inconsistency by Martin Perez and Robbie Erlin hitting a wall upon his promotion to AA Frisco in late May.

WRONG. Jackson has had a good debut, but Perez has pitched well enough to get to Round Rock and is the Rangers top prospect. I successfully predicted Erlin’s promotion (albeit a couple of weeks too early) and some struggles for him at the higher level, but he seems to be doing okay for the most part.

4. Dustin Ackley will have a solid-but-unspectacular spring training, and will make the Opening Day Mariners roster. He will not impress in the early going, hitting .253/.334/.358 with inconsistent defense at 2B as of August 1. In August, the Mariners will suffer a shortage of first basemen due to injuries, prompting them to shift Ackley to first base to fill the hole. He continues to scuffle at the plate through August, but breaks out in September as one of the best hitters in baseball during that month, and flashes a good glove at first. The debate over whether Ackley should remain at first or shift him to left field ends up being one of the biggest questions surrounding the Mariners heading into the 2011 offseason.

WRONG. The Mariners gave Ackley a chance to get himself going at Tacoma and he’s had a successful debut. I don’t see him losing second base for a while if he loses it at all.

5. Manny Machado destroys the South Atlantic League, leading to a mid-July promotion to the Carolina League where he continues to hit well. Skeptics will point to a relatively low walk rate and a thickening lower half as concerns, but the majority of prospectors will consider him to be a Grade A prospect by season’s end.

RIGHT. Machado did indeed destroy the Sally League and earned himself a promotion even faster than I predicted.

6. Kaleb Cowart will hit .238/.312/.404 for Cedar Rapids in the Midwest League, with 148 strikeouts in 119 games. Scouts will be impressed with his in-game power and present defensive ability, but serious concerns about his approach will leave some wondering if the Angels shouldn’t have spent their millions elsewhere.

WRONG. Cowart didn’t get a shot at full season ball, instead spending it in the Pioneer League. His numbers have been okay but not great, and looking back on it now, I might have actually overshot what he would have been capable of doing in CR this year.

7. Despite a sterling 3.34 ERA thanks to giving up a single home run over the first 2 months of the season in the Carolina League, concerns about Anthony Ranaudo grow due to a poor BB/K and a fastball reportedly topping out at 92 MPH. The concerns will be justified when Ranaudo leaves the game in the middle of his debut for AA Portland and is promptly shut down for the rest of the regular season with a forearm strain. Ranaudo will make up some of those innings in the AFL, where his fastball will touch 97 MPH in short stints. He’ll still struggle to throw strikes, though.

WRONG, but with some interesting similarities. Replace “Carolina” with “South Atlantic” and I got that part close enough. His ERA is much higher in the Carolina League than I thought it would be, but I did get the part about the relatively poor BB/K. The rest, we’ll have to wait for.

8. While there will be little doubt by season’s end that the Brewers system remains among the worst in the game, the breakouts of 2010 3rd round pick Tyler Thornburg and Cody Scarpetta will ease the pain a little.

RIGHT. I called the Thornburg breakout, and Scarpetta has had a solid-if-unspectacular year in AA. The Brewers system continues to be wretched. Two out of three gives it to me.

9. The Indians system will be riddled with injuries and inconsistent play, with a mediocre AAA campaign by Lonnie Chisenhall and serious injuries to Drew Pomeranz and Alex White dealing blows to the system. Indians fans will point to steady progress by players in the lower levels of the system (most notably Tony Wolters), an excellent AFL showing by 2011 1st rounder Sonny Gray, and a successful Rookie of the Year bid by Jason Kipnis as reasons to look towards the future.

WRONG. White has gotten hurt, but not seriously so, and Pomeranz has stayed healthy. Both have been traded, but I can’t really consider it a loss overall considering the return. Gray wasn’t drafted by Cleveland. Kipnis has played well enough to justify ROY but likely won’t have enough cumulative stats to earn serious consideration.

10. Bubba Starling will have a terrific senior season on the mound, but questions will continue to grow about his ability to hit quality pitching, and he will increasingly be seen as unsignable. Rumors will nonetheless suggest that the Royals will draft him as a pitcher at No. 5 overall, but they’ll surprise by taking South Carolina CF Jackie Bradley instead. They’ll still take Starling in the second round as an outfielder, where he’ll sign just before the deadline for $2.25 million.

RIGHT and WRONG. I called Starling to the Royals, but he went a round earlier than I predicted. He can’t hit yet, so I got that part right. Bradley started slow and got hurt before he could right the ship, but he still went in the supplemental.

Not bad for predictions I made with an eye towards generating discussion. If you give me credit for getting the levels slightly wrong (something that couldn’t have been accurately predicted in any case), I got 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, and half of 10 correct.