Fantasy Baseball 2012: Cardinals First Base Prospect Matt Adams

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 19, 2025 8:00 AM EST

Before I get to my analysis of St. Louis Cardinals first base prospect Matt Adams, I want to let everyone know that Jason Hunt and I have begun ranking our 2012 Top Fantasy Prospects at each position over at Fake Teams. I published my Top Fantasy Catcher Prospects for 2012 on Monday, and will publsh my Top Fantasy First Base Prospects for 2012 on Tuesday. Jason will follow these with his rankings for Third Base and Shortsop on Wednesday and Thursday.

Everyone knows at this point that the Cardinals decided that not signing Albert Pujols was in the best interest of the ballclub and will go with Lance Berkman at first base this season. Berkman is signed through 2012 at the cost of $12 million, but assuming the Cardinals allow him to leave via free agency after the season, the Cardinals will have a hole to fill at first base next offseason.

That hole may be filled with first base prospect Matt Adams. More on Adams after the jump:

Adams was drafted by the Cardinals in the 23rd round of the 2009 MLB draft, and he quickly showed he has a solid bat by hitting .355-.400-.547 in 245 at bats in Rookie leagues. John published his Top 20 Cardinals Prospects for 2012 recently, and here are his thoughts on Adams:

11) Matt Adams, 1B, Grade B: Could get a crack at first base job if Pujols leaves town. Power is real, but we'll have to see about the batting average and OBP.

John wrote this in mid-October before the Cardinals won the World Series and before Albert Pujols stunned many by signing with the Angels. But, I agree with John as Adams now has a pretty good shot at seeing some time at first base as soon as 2012.

Here is what Keith Law had to say about Adams in a recent chat:

Pierce (Tulsa, OK)

I've spoken with several scouts who are very impressed by Matt Adams's power? Do you really see him being more than an org player?

Klaw

(5:16 PM)

I do - had him 8th in their system before the season. Good for STL for pushing him to an age-appropriate level.

Law mentioned in another chat that Adams is more than an everyday guy due to hit hit and power tool, but would like to see him walk more. I understand where he is coming from, as he walked in just under 8% of his at bats in 2011, but he also doesn't strike out a ton either. Adams struck out in 17.5% of his at bats in 2011 and maintained a slugging percentage over .500 for the third year in a row.

Here are Adams career minor league stats, courtesy of Baseball-Reference:

Year	Age	Lev	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2009	20	A--Rk	63	245	31	87	17	0	10	52	20	41	.355	.400	.547	.947	134
2009	20	Rk	32	115	15	42	6	0	6	25	9	20	.365	.406	.574	.980	66
2009	20	A-	31	130	16	45	11	0	4	27	11	21	.346	.394	.523	.917	68
2010	21	A	121	464	71	144	41	0	22	88	33	78	.310	.355	.541	.896	251
2011	22	AA	115	463	80	139	23	2	32	101	40	90	.300	.357	.566	.923	262
3 Seasons			299	1172	182	370	81	2	64	241	93	209	.316	.365	.552	.917	647

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/18/2011.

What jumps out at me in analyzing Adams minor league stats is that he has maintained the excellent power production even as he moved up to AA in 2011. He increased his home run total from 22 to 32, as his doubles power started clearing more fences in 2011. As you can see his doubles dropped from 41 in 2010 to 23 in 2011, but the drop is justified due to the increase in the home run total.

One thing to note regarding the stats table above is that B-R states he is 22 years old, but he turned 23 on August 31, so it appears B-R reflects how old a player is at the beginning of the season, rather than at the end of the season. As a result, Adams will start his age 23 season at AAA and could get a call up at some point in 2012.

Matthew Leach, MLB beat reporter for the Cardinals, recently addressed Adams future in his blog after the Pujols news came out:

* What does this mean for Matt Adams?

Not a lot just yet, I’d say. If they sign somebody for multiple years to play 1B or the outfield, that might change. Craig is going to play, so if they were to sign an outfielder for 3 years or something, clearly moving Craig to first base (for example), that might block Adams. But for now, Adams’ ETA was never any sooner than Sept. of 2012 anyway, and Lance Berkman is only on a one-year deal.

I agree with Leach to a point, as the Cardinals, as their roster is constructed right now, may need a first baseman should Berkman suffer an injury during the season. Berkman isn't getting any younger, so he is a injury risk, and Adams may get an earlier call up than Leach expects should Berkman get injured.

What do Minor League Ball readers think of Adams chances in 2012?

Poll

Can Matt Adams be the future at first base for the Cardinals?

Yes

468 votes

No

185 votes

653 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 28 comments | 0 recs |

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Read More: Lance Berkman (RF - STL), Albert Pujols (1B - ANA), Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals

Comments

misleading question

He could start at 1B but probably won’t IMO.
What I’m guessing is they slide Berkman to 1B and aquire an established corner OFer.
If this was any other NL Central team Adams would get the 1st crack at Pujols, but the Cardinals, reigning world champs, the expectations aren’t for rebuilding or youht mode

by ScottAZ on Dec 19, 2025 12:07 PM EST reply actions

yeah

should have asked “will he…..”:

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 19, 2025 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

Damn, if this guy was in the Dodger's system I'd love him as a prospect

TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion

by Ivdown on Dec 19, 2025 12:37 PM EST reply actions

he'd be the starter out of spring training

if he was Dodger!!!

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 19, 2025 7:30 PM EST up reply actions

"a Dodger"

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 19, 2025 7:30 PM EST up reply actions

for some reason

the Dodgers are oddly loyal to Loney. Torre and now Mattingly seem to love the guy.

by ScottAZ on Dec 20, 2025 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

walk rate

owning adams in a deep league i think about him a lot. it’s harder than i would have first thought to come up with good comps for him.

one thing that i think happens with him. people note that he doesn’t walk a lot as a red flag. but i think that might cross some synapses for a lot of prospect analysts. because a lot of times guys who “don’t walk a lot” are also guys who strike out a lot, hackers. but that’s not adams. he doesn’t walk or strike out, he just hits. so you note the lack of walks as a data point, but it’s not like he’s failed. i think he’s closer to the pablo sandoval school of swingin’ fatties than he is your classic low-OBP quadruple-A power hitter.

and power from a short swing is a beautiful thing.

i saw where people were scanning the stats looking for hitters who had similar power / walk / strikeout rates in the minors and came up with kendrys morales and… ryan braun.

the braun thing is obviously optimistic, but he does show that guys without massive minor league walk rates can do pretty well.

there were some reports that he had a hole in his swing that was getting exposed in the AFL, not sure how true that is or how much it had to do with his mediocre showing. his AA numbers were even better until he had an oblique thing down the stretch, he never really seemed the same after that. most of the first half he was pushing .350 with completely ridiculous power.

anyway, the point is, i like him

by wily mo on Dec 19, 2025 3:51 PM EST reply actions

thanks for the insight

I think he is under-loved a bit. I don’t see Berkman staying healthy this year….could be wrong.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 19, 2025 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's wrong to say he "doesn't strike out"

He struck out about 18% of the time, which is greater than the MLB average. Sandoval stikes out well below the league average., 13.5% last season.

by philosofool on Dec 20, 2025 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

The AFL gig was a bit disappointing

but injuries may also have been a factor.

I’m not yet convinced he’s for real, but he’ll be an interesting guy to follow for a year or two while Berkman has his last hurrah.

"That’s what a baseball player does: he uses the glove half of the time." -- Rick Horton regarding the DH.

by StanTheManFan on Dec 19, 2025 4:09 PM EST reply actions

Separating fantasy from reality,

walk rates aren’t that important.

A power hitting first baseman with a 2/1 K-BB rate who strikes out less than 100 times, are you kidding?

Sign me up.

by Kelsdad on Dec 19, 2025 7:03 PM EST reply actions

I like his bat a lot

Springfield is a great place to hit, but Adams’ power will play anywhere.

As far as a comp goes . . .one didn’t immediately come to mind, but there are a lot of similarities to Travis Hafner. Handedness, body type, skillset. Not worried about the walks at all - the way he’s hit, he can feel free to swing as much as he likes! Once he faces pitching that respects his bat, the walks will be there for him if he wants them.

by mrkupe on Dec 20, 2025 6:30 AM EST reply actions

I see him as an average 1B at most.

His power is nice, but I’m really skeptical of guys who are striking out a lot and not walking a lot at the minor league level. It looks to me like a combination of mediocre contact skills and an aggressive approach. As a bat only prospect, that just doesn’t excite me. A slugger who’s aggressive with contact skills or patient without them is fine, but being bad at both is basically a recipe for Mike Jacobs.

by philosofool on Dec 20, 2025 11:48 AM EST reply actions

i rest my case

by wily mo on Dec 20, 2025 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

he struck out 90 times in ~500 PA

That’s acceptable by any standard, but when you consider the kind of power production he had along the way, his strikeout rate looks minuscule.

by mrkupe on Dec 20, 2025 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

20% Ks at AA translates to about 25% at MLB.

You can’t do that with a 7-8% walk rate and be a quality player unless you have a defensive skill set. .250/.300/.470 is a marginally above league average hitter.

by philosofool on Dec 20, 2025 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

"20% Ks at AA translates to about 25% at MLB."

That’s a general term, every player is different individually.

Adams struck out 12 more times and walked seven more times in six fewer games between A and AA, which is a good sign. His BA was ten points less but he was higher in both OBP and SLG.

His build is very similar to Pujols, who, if you remember, wasn’t very good defensively his first few seasons.

As long as you can hit, being a good defensive first baseman isn’t a requirement of success.

Just ask Ryan Howard and Frank Thomas.

Not comparing, mind you, but there’s no reason to believe Adams couldn’t step in and do a good job.

He doesn’t have to be a Hall of Famer to benefit to the lineup.

by Kelsdad on Dec 20, 2025 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

you are making some pretty wild assumptions

There are plenty of players who strike out that much at that level (or more) and go on to fine careers. It seems like you’re penalizing Adams for taking advantage of his ability to consistently hit the crap out of the ball, which makes absolutely no sense at all. It’s like you’d rather the guy just sit back and stare at pitches that he’s fully capable of driving just to up his walk total.

by mrkupe on Dec 20, 2025 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

I'm being reasonable instead of optimistic.

What I think is that he needs to improve a lot before you go past league average 1B.

Every player in every system could suddenly become a different player. If you base all your projections about the future on what you want him to be rather than what he has been, you’re jsut being a foolish optimist.

Everything he has done so far suggests contact problems and aggressiveness with a lot of power. That doesn’t spell much more than a 2 WAR player if his glove is 1B at best.

by philosofool on Dec 20, 2025 9:15 PM EST up reply actions

um

He doesn’t have contact problems - if anything, that’s a strength. He struck out less than 16 percent of the time in 2010, then skipped a level in 2011 and still only struck out less than 18 percent of the time. That is pretty low for any player, but for a guy who hits for tremendous power as well, that’s awesome.

He’s been aggressive to the extent that he’s been ready, willing, and able to crush the pitching he’s been facing. I fail to see how you could possibly think his prowess with the bat should be interpreted as a bad thing.

“What he has been” is a .310/.355/.541 hitter in 2010 and a .301/.357/.566 hitter in 2011. Go ahead and base your projections off of that.

by mrkupe on Dec 20, 2025 10:15 PM EST up reply actions

He has contact issues.

They were exposed in the fall league, where he struck out 28 times in 98 PA. He walked 3 times.

His ability to keep his strike out rate down at lower levels is a result of his aggressiveness. By swinging at a fairly high rate, he eventually makes contact. But we see the weakness in his walk rate.

He reminds me of Mark Trumbo.

by philosofool on Dec 21, 2025 11:55 PM EST up reply actions

it was the AFL, nobody cares what happens in the AFL

It’s basically a glorified showcase with some aspects of instructionals for some players. Nobody cares if these guys wreck the competition. Nobody cares if they don’t hit at all. That’s especially true in a whopping 98 plate appearances.

Just to note, he added 7 walks this year in a nearly identical number of plate appearances to last year, despite skipping a level and hitting as well as ever.

by mrkupe on Dec 22, 2025 1:21 AM EST up reply actions

While it's true the AFL isn't a stats driven league, to call it a "glorified showcase"

is a discredit to the league.

It’s organized and structured much more than people realize.

To say “nobody cares what happens in the AFL” is blatantly false.

by Kelsdad on Dec 22, 2025 9:21 AM EST up reply actions

okay, let me clarify

The numbers in the AFL really don’t matter. Or at least, they shouldn’t. There are ways for players to distinguish themselves there, but I really can’t believe that much if anything is taken from the statistical results. We all know better than to do that given the sample size, environment, and circumstances.

My comment was not directed towards the organizational structure of the league.

by mrkupe on Dec 22, 2025 9:34 AM EST up reply actions

"The numbers in the AFL really don’t matter"

They don’t, but it’s not the NFL Scouting Combine, either.

For every Bryce Harper or Mike Trout there are guys like David Phelps and Jefry Marte who are facing roster decisions and could find themselves exposed to the Rule V draft, traded, or even released.

There’s big name prospects like Grant Green changing positions, first round draft picks getting a taste of the pro game, which is huge.

It’s not just baseball.

by Kelsdad on Dec 22, 2025 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

You're rationalizing.

You an’t just ignore 100 PA becaues you don’t llike the results. ALF numbers are evidence and ignoring it is just wishful thinking that it didn’t happen.

I maintain my original point: he’s a league average 1B at most; his skill set is not one of an elite hitter, but a star 1B needs to be an elite hitter. A 1B who’s only a good hitter is really just a league average player. A very good hitter at 1B is a 3 WAR player, and nothing Adams has done should make anyone go past “very good” in their projection, “good” is a better projection.

by philosofool on Dec 23, 2025 5:50 PM EST up reply actions