I haven’t seen him in person yet and I hope he doesn’t get promoted out of the Midwest League before I have a chance to get up to Clinton. Statwise, he’s been in a slump lately as the poor plate discipline seems to have caught up with him.

Ceiling…a middle infielder who could hit 15 homers and steal 20 bases a year, but with erratic batting average and OBP skills…not sure who that sounds like.

Well frankly I like all of those guys. Vizcaino’s recent elbow problem knocks his stock back a bit until we see how he recovers. Of the others, I would rank them Teheran, Delgado, Minor, Lopez in that order, with the top three being B+ prospects. Teheran likely an A- by the end of the year, maybe even an A.

I prefer him as a reliever at least in the short run. I would use him in the bullpen the rest of the year, let him get his feet wet, then re-evaluate at the end of the season. I’ve always seen him more as a future closer than a starter back to his days at TCU.

He’s clearly made some progress with improving his strike zone judgment, although his BB/K rate is still less than ideal. I had him as a Grade C in the book. I would definitely raise that to C+ at this point, with a chance for a higher grade depending on what happens by the end of the year, what the scouting reports say, etc. I have not seen him this year and my view may still be colored to some extent by the wild hacks I saw him take last year. Upside….a guy who can hit 20-25 homers a year, but I still don’t trust the batting average and OBP to be consistently good.

I see him as a fourth or fifth outfielder….broad base of average skills/tools, but without quite enough to push himself into a consistent starting role. He could have a 10year career as a bench guy.

I love Lawrie…I shadow-drafted him for the Twins instead of Hicks back in ’08. I still think he will end up as a right fielder and not a second baseman though. But the bat..love the bat. Doubles and triples will become home runs as he matures.

We should see him in the majors by this time next year, maybe a bit sooner. Upside…third or fourth starter, similar to Duke when Duke is going well.

Scouting reports are quite positive in regards to his stuff, and this is reflected in his excellent K/IP ratio for Quad Cities. He’s been on some pretty strict pitch counts, however, and still needs to build up his stamina and innings. Too early to tell if he can be a number one guy, more probably a 2/3 but still time to get beyond that. ETA late 2013.

I might go to B- but no higher. His strikeout rate is too low for me to rank him as an elite prospect at this point.

Royals fans are getting too excited about him. He’s clearly improved, but 1) he still has no power 2) his stolen base success ratio remains mediocre. I want to see a lot more before buying into Royals propaganda about him. I’d give him a C+ at this point. Comp: Joey Gathright when Joey Gathright is going well.

Another player with a lot of thick propaganda.

Great tools, and he’s cut his strikeouts a lot this year, which is good. He’s also still very young at age 20. But given the entirety of his track record, I’m not going to fully accept a breakthrough based on 73 games. His walk rate is still too low for me to completely trust him.

He has star tools, yes. But I want to see more before concluding that he’s learned to use them fully.

I’m more worried about Taylor at this point than I am about Carter. Carter has shown the abiility to adapt his approach before and I think he’ll do it again. Taylor…I dunno. It is interesting that he’s struggled after switching organizations, but moving into a context that should be MORE favorable rather than less. This is one of my short-term research goals, finding out what PCL sources say about both.

Love Kipnis with the bat. Defense…reports on range are good, somewhat error-prone but that should get better with experience. I don’t know where he’d rank at this point in regards to other 2Bs….I don’t have a list at hand. I gave him a C+ in the book and would move that to B-/B right now, with a firm B possible by end of season.

Don’t know anything about him other than he reportedly has a good arm and a great K/BB K/IP mark in the DSL. Much too early to speculate.

Yeah, his strikeout rate is awfully high, 91 Ks in 68 games. he was supposed to be a much more polished hitter than that, so yes I am concerned. Type of player…if that doesn’t improve maybe a John Buck type.

Look, he’s a great prospect but people are kind of getting out of control about this…he has half a season under his belt. Let’s see what he looks like at the end of August. A mid-season slump could make things look different.

I dunno…Fred McGriff? Jason Heyward without the speed for the outfield?

Reliever. ETA 2011.

Two big jumps….rookie ball to full-season A.

Full-season A to Double-A. which is even harder.

i’m a firm believer that almost every player needs a full season at each level. There are a few exceptions, but the levels teach different lessons, and when players skip a level I think it usually causes problems. I don’t think Triple-A should be skipped for example.

Hosmer, Morrison, Wallace, Singleton, Freeman

Promote them to the PCL. They need to face Triple-A hitters and show they can overcome adversity.

I don’t think he has quite as much potential in his bat as Kipnis does. I see Phelps as a possible super-utility type.

Not counting 2010 draft….hmm….short term Jay Jackson, Long term Hak Ju Lee or Vitters. Hard question to answer without doing research for an hour.

Greatly improved over last year, and I like the cold-weather high school arms as sleepers. he’s rather hittable and I don’t have a scouting report newer than April, so pending that I would not see him as a Top 100 guy just yet. But depending on FSL sources, he could sneak in the back end I suppose by the end of the year.

I think he ends up in the pen as a power lefty with enough stuff to not be confined to the LOOGY role.

I have seen Kila enough over the years to have a firm opinion of him.

If given enough time to adjust, he can be a .240-.250, 20-homer hitter with tons of walks…Ken Phelps basically. However, the Royals don’t trust him. If he gets a chance, he’ll have to get off to a hot start immediately because if he’s hitting .200 after 20 games they will pull the plug.

Like all three of them.

I’d rank them Lamb, Hendriks, Cosart right now., all about in the Grade B range. I’m not going to give ETAs until the end of the year…too much can still change in July and August and I think ETAs are misleading anyway, even if fantasy players want them.

Lamb really needs to be watched closely….sources I trust are glowing in their reviews.

Promotion was too aggressive and I would not have moved him up myself. Upside…number one upside, but that’s the maximal outcome…a 2 or 3 is more likely. People get hung up on upside so much that they forget that “upside” is the maximal outcome and start assuming people will reach that.

I think he’ll be fine long-term, consistent 20+ HR second baseman with .280+ avg.

Did a post on beckham last month…use search function.

I have no idea who the safest prospect is, but it isn’t Ackley.

Your estimated ceiling seems fair to me.

Oh, he’s a legit prospect….but his season is rather out of context with the rest of his career, and as a first baseman who is 24 in DoubleA he has to stay this hot to get noticed. I’d say C+

toughie since havens can’t seem to stay healthy. I say Havens has higher “peak ability” but Tejada could end up having a longer career.

Option C.

I’d leave him at shortstop the rest of the year, then move him to third next spring.

Romine is more reliable defenisvely but isn’t very good at throwing out runners yet. I still believe in Montero’s bat, but I suppose in the long run Romine is more likely to stick at C defensively.

He’s made a lot of progress but I don’t see him higher than Bell just yet….still some doubts about plate discipline, power development, use of speed on bases

I don’t have him in top 5 yet but he could get there by end of year. Velocity is up, cutter/slider is better, most importantly he’s healthy after elbow problems last year

Trout, Lawrie, Gibson, Scheppers, Monterop, Castro, Perez

better topic for a larger post.

Main thing is that Dayton Moore convinced the Glasses to let him spend in the draft, a freedom that Allard Baird never had beyond the first couple of rounds.

Cumberland is better. And yes I think he can probably stick at SS

I like Britton quite a bit and think he is underrated nationally. I’d say number three starter potential, good chance of reaching it if he avoids injury.

scheppers at this point. love me some scheppers.

Honestly I don’t know enough about these three guys to make a direct comparison yet between them.

given his age-relative-to-league, Profar looks awfully intriguing to me….

can’t answer that without an hour of research at this point in the season.

hmm

.247/.309/.404 in 302 at-bats, lots of complaints from Braves fans.

Without a more detailed medical report I can’t speculate about this

Feliz by far. He’s already proven himself.

I will say Belt because I have actually seen him play and haven’t seen Sands yet.

I’ve heard a lot of good things…greatly improved command of fastball and curveball and good progress on the changeup too. Much more consistent than he was in college. Upside if he reaches it, number two starter.

He’s 20 years old, this is his first full year pitching, and he was rushed to Double-A…that’s what’s wrong with him. He belongs in the Carolina League.

Depends….are we talking about a HS player? A college guy? A minor league player? is there a statistical track record to look at? Can’t answer this without knowing what the context is. If I’m evaluating an amateur I’d do a lot different things than if I’m evaluating a Triple-A guy.

Still too early for a bust call….he’s equivalent to a college sophomore right now. but the grade has to go down…C/C+ I’d say at this point.

I think the position has worn down his bat. Happens a lot…Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome.

He is only 24….he still has a chance to figure things out like Cruz did, although he doesnt’ have Cruz’s tools.

Needs a change of scenery though.

I agree with your observations. . .his underlying component ratios do not scream “ace” by any means.

I think they should move him up to Triple-A to challenge him in a new environment and see if he can make the necessary adjustments.

He’s still just 23….I think it looks real to me, though I hope they don’t rush him….I wouldn’t want him in the majors before this time next year.

depends on the prospect.

If I were the Twins, I’d give up Ramos definitely. I would strongly consider giving up Hicks too. ..but my Shadow TWins, for example, don’t have Hicks…I drafted Lawrie instead in ‘08, and I don’t know that I would give Lawrie up.

he could get there yes by end of year.

too many guys who fit that category to respond here. good topic for larger post.

Let’s see…

How about Martin Perez and Engel Beltre. that might seem like a lot but I would do that if I were the Rangers.

Same as before….good tools, power doubtful.

If he turns out as good as I think he will, his value will get higher.

Both Grade C maybe C+ types, future role players perhaps

I’d be more willing to part with Mejia given the higher risk inherint with pitchers

75-85 range. I don’t trust him not to get hurt at this pooint.

Way way too early to tell that. Want to see some pro numbers. Has the tools to be a top 20 in the system.

No more than you do.

Yeah he looks ready sooner than I thought. Still think he’ll need 300 TripleA atbats though.

He’s clearly improved but I want to see how things stand at the end of the season given his previously poor track record. At least a C+/B- right now, could be a B by the end of the season if he continues to play well.

I love Phelps and think he’s dramatically underrated. One of the Yankees best prospects now and could fit on the back end of a Top 100 list.

Great tools, don’t believe in his skills just yet, want to see more. Could be in 100 by end of year if maintains success in double-a.

I hate rating players who haven’t played yet.

If they do well in their pro debuts, they could both be in a Rangers top ten entering 2011.

I am partial to Gillespie as a sleeper guy who should have a solid career, but Parra has better physical tools and is three years younger. i’d try to find a way to play both, or perhaps platoon them with Gillespie getting a few more ABs than a strict platoon would normally indicate.

Matzek has pitched quite well so far….he needs to cut the walks down, but he’s got 47 strikeouts in 41 innings and reports on his stuff are very good.

Tate has had injury problems and has been overmatched by rookie ball pitching so far, don’t like 21 strikeouts in 11 games.

Matzek is way ahead of Tate at this point.

Never say never….but the strikeout rate is high enough to cast very serious doubts. If you gave him 500 at-bats, he could hit .170 with 20 homers and 200 strikeouts.

I don’t know off the top of my head…I’d have to take an hour and research this. Better to wait until we see how the 2010 draftees do.

He had a great year in A-ball in 2007 before some injuries struck, but he’s been great again this year….325/.382/.619 in Double-A and Triple-A. I saw him play college ball at Kansas State…average tools, but has some legitimate pop in his bat, mediocre defense at third.

No. Third baseman. I don’t think he has the range for short.

Well all of those guys could turn into strong number two starters. I don’t think Porcello or Tillman have been handled especially well, but I haven’t given up on either of them. Gibson looks good to me and I trust the Twins to develop young pitchers better than most organizations. I think this is a good trade for you, but you’ll need to be patient.

I have no idea if Ripken is well-suited for the job or not.

Being a good DPD requires a very different skill set than being a good major league player or being a good clubhouse leader. You have to be good at bureaucratic manueving. You have to have a good understanding of human psychology. You can’t be a wuss and too weak to manage people, but you can’t be a giant asshole either. You have to have a feel for scouting and understanding players on your own, but you also have to be good at delegating responsibility.

I’m not saying that Ripken can’t or won’t be a good DPD, but his resume as a Hall of Fame player with great makeup does not necessarily translate into front office success.

I’m not sure what your question is here. Developing pitching is tough. Few teams develop pitchers like clockwork.

Stuff is average to a tick above, but his command and feel for pitching are excellent. His walk rate is up since moving to Double-A, but he’s still striking out people at a good clip. I’d make him a B-/C+ right now, possible fourth starter down the line.

He’s strong enough to hit some homers but I’m not sure his swing will ever be a big home run producer, maybe 10-15 a year at his peak unless he makes a big change in his approach.

Pitching is the strength of this system, though they went heavy for offense in the 2010 draft and that will percolate up eventually. I don’t see any Longorias at the upper or middle levels, though I still like Desmond Jennings as a leadoff type. 2010 draftees such as O’Conner, Vettleson, and Sale will move to the top of Tampa prospect lists soon but will need some time to develop

Depends on if he shows any command, which is an open question. The Mets often rush people too fast and Harvey could get to the majors before he’s ready, like what happened with Pelfrey.

He’ll end up somewhere in my top 100 if he has a good NWL season but at this point there is not enough data. I am loathe to rank players solely on glowing scouting reports and youth….I want to see some numbers too, even if the sample is small.

Well Oliver’s got a great fastball…his problem is the secondary pitches. Early in his college career he had a fine curve, but that disappeared last spring and hasn’t fully returned. I’m trying to keep an open mind here, but if were the Tigers he would still be in Double-A working on the breaking ball and changeup. Given that he USED to have good secondary pitches, there’s at least a fair chance he could get them back, so I have not given up on the idea of Oliver being a starter. I just question how the Tigers are handling him. but they didn’t ask me.

I’d give him something like a B-/B right now…which is a high grade for a reliever. Would like to see the walks come down a bit, but the K/IP ratios stands out as a huge positive. If he keeps up his current level i could give him a B by the end of the year.

way way way too early to make a call on that.

Well he could get an award like that, but I don’t see him as one of their top-notch prospects at this point….22 years old in the Sally League, low walk rate, good slash line at .320/.364/.494 but as a right-handed hitting first baseman, he faces an uphill battle. I’d give him a C/C+ at this point

I’ve heard similar things that he has “made adjustments,” and certainly his BB/K/AB marks are better in the majors than they were in the minors, which is extremely unusual. . .how many players hit better in the majors than in the minors? It does not happen very often. Given the totality of his track record, I still think he is going to come back to Earth eventually and cool off.

I have said it a million times and I will say it a million more.

MOST prospects need a full year at Double-A and a full year at Triple-A. The two levels teach different things. A team that skips levels consistently is just asking for trouble.

Arrieta and Tillman could have used more time, but I don’t see their handling as incompetent. Reimold got hurt, but he showed he was ready last year. Wieters will pull through. And Matusz is doing fine.

Rough Rule of thumb…these are the ages that I look at, other people may use different ages.

Rookie Ball: age 17 or 18. Anyone older than that is questionable.
Short-season A: ages19-20. 21 for a guy coming out of a four year college in his draft year is OK.
Low A: ages 19-21. 22…depends. 23 is old.
HighA: ages 20-22. 23…depends. 24 is old.
Double-A: ages 22-23. 24…depends. 25 is old.
Triple-A: ages 23-24. 25…depends. 26 is old

Doubt this is a showcase situation. I haven’t heard anything negative about his recovery.

This would be a better question to ask in a couple more weeks. The big names are obvious…Profar, etc. \, but the samples are still small and I haven’t tapped my short-season sources yet given everything else going on.

All the position switching might have hampered his hitting. Probably future utiility guy, and most likely a trade chip, although his value may be lower than it should be given his current inability to control strike zone.

Gardenhire is being piss poor about giving him oppurtunities to even play

he’s playing Nick Punto, Michael Cuddyer and a couple of times even Matt Tolbert at 3B before Daniel V.

ughh it is kinda amazing how well he’s performed thus far considering he’s never sure when he’ll be in the lineup or not.
On one hand, i guess i can’t really blame gardy because the team is in the middle of a pennant race in a virtual 3 team lock right now atop the A.L. Central….

I didn’t see him as a prospect at all before this year. Given that the season is out of context with the rest of his career, I am reserving judgment at this point and awaiting the final two months of Double-A data.

I gave him a Grade C in the book this year because we had no pro data and the scouting reports from college pointed to a substandard breaking ball. Numbers this year look very good at the A-ball levels, and his K/IP is much better this year than it was in college….perhaps a sign that the breaking ball is truly improving.

I’d say B-/C+ right now, pending some scouting reports.

Sampson was one of my favorite high school pitchers in the 2009 draft, and he’s done nothing this year to change that. I gave him a C+ in the book and wrote that he had “vast” potential. I’d raise that to B- now, regular B possible by end of year, could be a number two starter. I like him a LOT

Prefer Cozart. Regulars…..more probably very good utility players.

What grade would you give him and do you think he would possibly make the top 100 list. Thanks.

Well I like all three, but yeah I want to see at higher levels….I think Krauss probably has the best bet to replicate this against better pitching.

Belt is interesting…I thought he was underrated at Texas.

I had him as a C+ in the book. Could be a B- by end of season, and a guy who could leap into the Top 50 pitchers sometime in 2011. Keep a close eye on him.

my favorite of that group is Odorizzi, but he’s also probably the furthest away. We should see Rivas sometime next year. I suspect that Peralta and Heckathorn will end up as relievers in the majors…I think their stuff fits better in the pen….while Odorizzi and Rivas will be starters. I think Odo has the highest ceiling of the group.

Well I’d like more than 15 games, lol.

Obviously his power is very impressive, and his plate discipline has been decent in limited action. Defense still needs work. I gave him a Grade C in the book and I can see that as a C+/B- by end of season, with breakthrough possible in ’11.

7 in 65 at bats

I love Hellickson, but he went to my high school in Des Moines so I’m naturally biased in his favor. I also don’t have a problem leaving him in Triple-A a little longer.

Yes, he is a potential ace. If he stays healthy, being a number three is his FLOOR in my view. Love Hellickson.

but wishes you wouldn’t draw so much attention to it.

way way too early, too small a sample, too much can change between now and September.

I do think cold-weather players (both college and high school) tend to be underrated.

Maybe a litlte of both.. He was definitely rushed too fast and I think he’s still paying for that. I will do a larger profile of him next week.

Morton was a product of Braves and Baseball America propaganda. Braves pitching prospects are often overrated due to the history of the organization. he has a good arm, but the sabermetric case for him was never strong. I think he would do better in relief.

Hmm….Grade B+/A- arm, Grade C/C+ refinement, gradually making progress. I like him personally and see him as a breakthrough guy for next year, although I thought it might happen this year it just quite hasn’t done so

i haven’t checked up on any sources for him recently. Sally League numbers pretty solid, let’s see how he handles Cal League…he might actually do better there, on the surface anyway, given conditions.

Looks good so far, walks a bit high, would like to see that come down. Very projectable, low-90s heat now with good curve, some scouts think he’ll hit upper 90s eventually as he matures physically.

Hope to evaluate this on Sunday in Des Moines.

Let’s see how he handles the Sally League….that is quite a jump from the DSL to full season ball and so far he is overmatched. He really belongs in the GCL. It is really easy to overhype the young tools guys, and I’d like to at least see some actual data first.

I like Archer as a sleeper…he’s made improvements with his command this year, though it’s slipped a bit again since he moved up to Double-A. Pre-season the main thing he needed to work on was command of his breaking ball, and Double-A will test that. He’s a really good sleeper for people to focus on.

Agree completely.

Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton.

I think Neal can be a .250-.275 hitter with 20 homers a season if given enough time to adjust.

hmm….

Brady Anderson without the roids?

Jim Edmonds with less home run power?

Won’t have quite as much pop as Crawford. Not that worried about the lack of power given his injury issues…but home runs will never be his forte, more of a speed/walks/doubles guy.

that would take me 30 minutes to do justice to

well you really have to hit to make it as a first baseman or corner outfielder. he’s made progress..much better BB/K this year in addition to more power. Probably a pinchhitter/platoon guy in the end.

Command gone….purely speculative, but a lot of times this happens due to an underlying injury of some kind.

Good idea for a larger article. Too much to explore in this format. Remind me if I don’t do this soon.

Tough….potential number two starter vs. regular catcher.

I wouldn’t worry much about team needs that early in the draft, but I WOULD worry about makeup. That could be the determining factor, and from this perspective I don’t know who has better makeup.

Not counting that, I’d probably go Pomeranz.

people get hung up on this “number one” or “number three” starter stuff. Fact is, if you get an average major league starter, even out of a first round pick, you should be happy.

As for Minor, I do not see him as a “classic ace” type. But I think he can be a 2/3. And there’s nothing wrong with that

this is why I HATE grading players based solely on scouting reports, esp. guys from Cuba.

Frankly right now it looks like he sucks as a hitter. But the sample is small, and the jump in competition is big. Much too soon to give up, but example #44298 of why caution is advised in cases like this. beware hype.

Interesting comparison….because if Choice makes it, he could be quite similar to Swisher in terms of the offense he produces.

I think Choice has a better chance to be a more valuable defensive player. Power and patience very similar. Choice probably rates a bit higher at same stage of career

Not liking the awful BB/K ratio. But he deserves a chance at higher levels.

I like Colome a lot and could see him as a number two starter. Much much too early to know anything about Otero.

don’t know anything more than you do at this point. Jamey Newberg would probably know

If they money spigots open up again next year it will be OK….but if the lean scouting budgets last more than 2 years the damage can become quite severe….look at Houston.

No grade change based on 14 games. If he’s still sucking in September a downgrade to C would be possible/likely. Haven’t heard anything scouting wise yet but I’ve been too busy to tap short-season sources yet.

Not wild about either of them. Both still prospects due to age and tools….Marte power potential, Puello speed, but both have a lot to learn about hitting. Grade C/with potential for both of them.

I like the power, but the BB/K is awful and he’ll be hard-pressed to hit for average at higher levels unless that improves. Grade C.

Lots of Jerry Sands attention lately. I answered this a couple of days ago. He’s a legit prospect but wether as a Grade B or a C+ I don’t know yet…let’s get a couple months of Double-A reports.

I like Gosselin but see him as more of a good utility type than a future starter.

Love both these guys. Both could be Top 20 by end of year. Ceilings of All-Stars, which doesn’t mean they will get there of course.

He’s a prospect but overall BB/K is pretty weak. Grade C.

Apples/oranges thing here. Cain has a higher ceiling I’d say, but Wilson will get to the majros a lot sooner and has less risk