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Discussion Question for July 4th

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July 4th Discussion

 We'll return to normal coverage with minor league notes tomorrow, and will have an AQA thread sometime this week. In the meantime, here is a discussion question to keep you busy on July 4th.

Which of the following prospects are you worried about?

Dustin Ackley, hitting .253/.386/.379 this year for Double-A West Tennessee in the Mariners system.
Todd Frazier, hitting .218/.281/.416 this year for Triple-A Louisville in the Reds system.
Aaron Hicks, hitting .254/.367/.390 this year for Low-A Beloit in the Twins system.
Jiovanni Mier, hitting just .224/.320/.287 this year for Low-A Lexington in the Astros system.

Everyone have a safe holiday!

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Leaving out the homerism

Because obviously my impulse is to say Mier, being an Astros fan…

I’d have to go with Frazier, since he’s the oldest of the bunch, and has the least time left to work things out. His age-adjusted wOBA this season is… problematic. So is the big jump in strikeout rate, which makes his drop in batting average/OBP seem more legitimate and less luck-driven.

Ackley is doing fine, IMO. Not showing the power expected, but there’s plenty of time. Power often doesn’t show up until a player has been in the minors awhile.

Hicks is a little more worrying but he’s still right around the league average age for Class A. I think he’ll be all right… love the patience.

Mier is the one I think has been bit the most by the BABIP bug. His BB/K rates are fine and I expect the batting average to go up, and bring up the OBP/SLG with it. The lack of power is the most worrying thing, but then I remember that he’s playing in a very pitcher-friendly league, is young for his level, and still has a lot of room left on his frame to add bulk.

by OremLK on Jul 4, 2025 9:40 AM EDT reply actions  

+1

I agree with every single point.

Like Rick Bosetti my goal in life is not to do well but to piss on things.

by mudie on Jul 4, 2025 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I agree as well, Frazier is the most worrying. I will say that I was never really that high on Mier, certainly not as much as most, so I’m not really “worried” about him, I think this start probably brings down most others’ expectations/valuations a bit down to my level. Ackley’s fine IMO.

by killa on Jul 4, 2025 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I agree with all of this. I’m not as worried about Mier’s bat as much as most people seem to be. Perhaps that’s misguided, but we shall see in the future.

by oplaid on Jul 4, 2025 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

View Frazier to at best be a utility player

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by Wilbur Wood on Jul 4, 2025 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1 on Hicks, but...

…the younger and usually lower-rated Angel Morales has already bypassed him. Morales has been promoted to Fort Myers (high A), where he is doing OK. Wonder who this says more about — Hicks, or those who continually overrate Hicks solely on the value of his plate patience. Morales has all the same tools except for that patience, and the numbers suggest he’s using them better.

by B.S.Blues on Jul 5, 2025 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hicks doing okay

Actually, eyeballing midwest league teams batting stats Hicks OPS is about +10% compared to league average. Obviously you have to rate him behind Myers and Trout at this point whereas you might have had Hicks ahead of both of them as the season started, but there still seems like there is lots of room for him to emerge more or less as hoped for.

Frazier performing as he is at age 24 is a big problem, once you get to age 25 or 26 and you are still it the minors you might make it to the majors but almost by definition you are no longer a top prospect.

Ackley’s plate discipline is such a positive in his first professional experience that it is probably reasonable to give him a pass a bit longer on the rest of his performance. But, those that have doubted his power have certainly gotten more ammunition for their arguments based on what he has done so far.

by Dalman on Jul 5, 2025 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ackley

Was considered to be a future batting champ with some power. Sure he has a nice BB/K but if the power doesn’t develop we may see another Sean Burroughs here. Also reports are that he is struggling playing 2nd.

by Bravesin07 on Jul 4, 2025 10:47 AM EDT reply actions  

+1

I believe in the hit tool but the absence of power and especially the bad reports on defense are concerning. The window for stardom seems awfully narrow, which is not what I thought a few months ago.

by FI2 on Jul 4, 2025 12:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

- 1

I am not worried at all about Ackley. I think he’s got a chance to be a future league batting average champ. I can see him hitting .340 some years.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Jul 4, 2025 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

yep

a poor man’s Brock Bond

by TimLaser and MattyC on Jul 4, 2025 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll wait until I see him...

doing something in the minors before I annoint him then ext Wade Boggs.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jul 4, 2025 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Definitely not Ackley

Ackley started out very very slow batting .147 in April but since has been hitting very well. Since May 4th he has been batting .336/.481/.456 with a walk rate of 17.6%

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/6/16/1521882/prospect-notes

by tarheels1 on Jul 5, 2025 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

One of those players is not like the others.

by Humbled Fan on Jul 6, 2025 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mier

I’ve seen Mier play twice this year. He doesn’t look comfortable at the plate. I can’t say I’m surprised here as the AStros have a history of bad picks. But he looked much more comfortable the one time I saw him last year in the Appy League.

Frazier is somewhat disconcerting because of his age. But he could just be having a Lars Anderson kind of year.

Ackley will be fine. Even when his BA was in the toilet the first month of the year he was having good at-bats. It wasn’t like he was Greg Halman up there hacking at anything. He was just hitting line drives directly as people. Look at his numbers for May & June - some of those line drives were falling. Personally I think he could have spent a month or two at High Desert and then a promotion, but he can work things out at the AA level. Plus he’s probably suffering from culture shock being in Jackson, TN.

by KSM on Jul 4, 2025 11:12 AM EDT reply actions  

Mier is looking more comfortable lately

He’s on a nice hot streak and I’ve seen him play, and he looks a lot better. I feel like he’s made the adjustment at this point, which is good, because it keeps him on track for A+ next season.

By the way the Astros don’t have a history of making bad picks under Bobby Heck. That would have been true a few years ago before Heck was hired… but Heck knows what he is doing.

by OremLK on Jul 4, 2025 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

A .722 OPS for June is a whole lot better than the rest of the season. He could be showing signs of life at the plate. I was getting nervous but was trying to hold off on becoming worried. Last month helped settle my nervousness.

by Subber10 on Jul 4, 2025 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was just looking at his stats today

and if IIRC, his OPS has improved every single month. I think Orem pretty much hit the nail on the head here: his K:BB ratio is still pretty good, he’s in a pitcher’s league, and he’s yet to fill out. When they first drafted him, Bobby Heck said that Jio was eventually going to hit for more power than people thought; given Heck’s track record thus far, I’m inclined to trust him for now.

"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"

by DrewRusse on Jul 5, 2025 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

well, he has 20 XBH on the season

So yeah, I would hope he could improve on that.

Early prediction for next year: Mier puts up big numbers in Lancaster, gets wildly overrated as a result

by mrkupe on Jul 5, 2025 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Mier

As has been discussed earlier, Mier’s numbers are trending upward across the board.

He’s at the right level and he’s doing the right things. He’s adjusting. He’s learning. He’s not close to helping the Astros, but his stock has not changed in my mind.

I’d say he’s in the No. 40-50 range.

"Most overrated prospect in the minors." -- Bravesin07 on Madison Bumgarner

by criminal type on Jul 5, 2025 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m impressed that you’d put him that high, and I’m an astros fan. He’s a top 100 talent for me no doubt, but i’d still put him in the back end. Maybe in the 60-80 range. He has a strong arm with a quick release. Great instincts and good range at SS. He is going to fill out and put up above average power for a SS. I think he will hit for a solid average. But since he hasn’t done it, he gets dropped into later half of the top 100.

I’m mrkupe in that I think he is going to put up really big numbers next year in Lancaster, but I don’t think he’ll be overrated as a result. I think people will point to this season as a reason to not rate him very highly. Although, this off-season will be a time in which he will likely develop a lot of size and muscle, so some power next year may be legit and not all Lancaster.

by Subber10 on Jul 5, 2025 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Other

What’s up with Chris Carter (Oak)? He’s only hitting .236/.343/.481/.824 with a league leading 93 Ks. Is his problem contact in general or is he getting destroyed by breaking balls / offspeed stuff?

Same guy, new name.

by stillredsoxfan on Jul 4, 2025 11:26 AM EDT reply actions  

That is pretty much what you can expect from Carter

His BABIP was insanely lucky last season. He is probably a .250 hitter in the majors with 25-35 homers.

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by King Billy Royal on Jul 4, 2025 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Ive been saying for a while I think that’s what we’re looking at. I find it pretty funny how many people are adjusting him down… he’s exactly what we thought he was as a hitter. His glove is what we need to see. If he’s provides no defensive value… well, that’s a problem. I’ve remained optimistic about his glove… we shall see.

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by alskor on Jul 5, 2025 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Michael Taylor

Anybody seen him play/follow him closely enough to know what the problem has been with his production? I certainly didn’t expect a .697 OPS. It looked like he might pick it up a bit numbers-wise a couple of weeks ago, but is on another cold stretch, 3 for his last 18.

by killa on Jul 4, 2025 11:48 AM EDT reply actions  

+1

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Jul 4, 2025 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perhaps "worry" is the wrong word

But I was never high on Frazier, so I don’t think his struggles aren’t that surprising. On the other hand, Ackley, and especially Hicks, (who are clearly far superior prospects) haven’t really lived up to my expectations. I thought Ackley would be hitting well above .300, and I expected Hicks to blow up in the FSL (which I still think he’ll do next year).

by T Pac on Jul 4, 2025 12:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Frazier of the group

Never been a huge fan of his. Jio would be second, but his ability to play SS well keeps him among the top 100. Ackley and Hicks, I have no worries about what-so-ever.

by jar75 on Jul 4, 2025 12:21 PM EDT reply actions  

4 guys

Not worried about Ackley, should stick at 2B and as long as he does that the bat should be good enough to make him at least a solid starter. Talk to me if he moves off, but I’d expect his bat to spike a bit if that happened.

Am worried about Jio, because this season matches up ominously well with the predraft scouting reports. He might be young for the league but this is a really, really bad year. He’s obviously still a prospect, but he’s nowhere near the Grade B-esque status that he’d need to top 100 for me, and I think he’s sitting in that Grade C+ range, a talented enigma who could go any number of directions.

Am concerned about Frazier, but I think he’s a major league contributor in some way in the future due to some positional versatility and his power. He’s too close to the majors to throw out entirely, but not sure if he’s going to project better as solid regular or a super-sub type.

Not worried about Hicks, strikeouts up but production up from last year, and last year’s production wasn’t bad. Be cautious, yes, but still has that nice blend of tools and skills.

by mrkupe on Jul 4, 2025 12:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Im worried

About how good Jerry Sands is. The beast has been unleashed

by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 4, 2025 1:31 PM EDT reply actions  

My question on Ackley

How common is it to promote a college bat (even a very good one) to AA and ask him to not only learn a new position but hit with authority? I guess you can tell what I think of him based on my answer, but I am curious whether this happens on a regular basis.

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by David Tokarz on Jul 4, 2025 5:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Shouldn't be as hard...

as learning your third position since you were drafted including 2B this year at the major league level while still hitting. Neil Walker is doing that. Why is Ackley, who many consider the best college hitter ever, struggling at Double A?

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jul 4, 2025 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

best college hitter ever?

I don’t know if I’ve seen one person refer to him as that, let alone “many”.

In fairness, he’s not exactly struggling now. He’s been solid for all but that first month. In fact, I’ve heard a rumor he might be getting promoted before long.

by mrkupe on Jul 4, 2025 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't really think Ackley is stuggling though I should put up the homer disclaimer

Any hitter posting a nearly .400 OBP in AA straight after college is not struggling. His April was absolutely dismal. However, that was mostly due to an unjustifiable BABIP. The most worrying thing has been the abscence of power but I am willing to give him a little slack on it. This is the first year adjusting to hitting with wood bats full time. He might have to rework his swing at the cost of some extra K but the potential remains. West Tennessee is no hitter’s paradise either.

I would not be that worried about Hicks at this point either. His age is still appropriate for the league level and he has kept up his walk rate. The increase in Ks is worrying but I think part of his problem is he is too passive in his approach right now. I wonder if he would be better served to be more aggressive at the plate in the future. At higher levels, pitchers are not going to be so inaccurate and his swing is not so sound that he can afford to be that passive.

Mier is in slightly worse shape due to the near complete abscence of power. The lack of HRs and 3bs indicate he has not been driving the ball. The number of doubles is not really encouraging either when you consider that he has some and A-ball defenses are far from stellar. At least he has maintained a solid K/BB ratio. Even when factoring his BABIP of .280 regressing to lets say .330, his line will be pretty empty.

Fraizer is the most worrying. The power is still there but the swing has found new holes. As a 24 year-old with no certain defensive position and no exceptional offensive upside, he needs to find his form quickly.

by tdot mariner fan on Jul 4, 2025 11:34 PM EDT reply actions  

I've never thought much of Frazier

Hate his swing and he doesn’t have a position. He will still probably end up a useful major leaguer still… but I never understood the attention he received as a prospect.

I also don’t think Mier will be much of a hitter and I’m not shocked to see him hitting like this. Major overreaction to a SSS debut. I don’t see him hitting for power or much of an average… but he has a good glove and a his approach gives some reason for optimism.

I’ll trust in the tools of Hicks and Ackley. I would say I’m disappointed in both to some degree… but not really worried about their futures. Have they slipped a few spots on my prospect lists? Definitely.

Tools wise, I would rank these guys:

Hicks
Ackley
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mier
-
-
Frazier

…and I think that pretty much says it all.

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by alskor on Jul 5, 2025 3:06 AM EDT reply actions  

Mier has received the message...

Hit his first homerun of the season last night… I don’t like the 23 errors he’s committed this season, but I don’t think this season has been too discouraging. He’s turned it around the second half, starting to hit more. He’s showing some good plate discipline too. Overall I think he’s on path, he won’t be an Astros for four years, but he’s in his first full season, out of high school, we can’t expect him to be fast tracked…

by byronlhsdrmr on Jul 5, 2025 8:20 AM EDT reply actions  

You can’t put too much stock in the errors recorded in the minors, especially lower minors. The fields are in pretty bad shape that make a routine play difficult because the ball suddenly goes the opposite direction because of a hole or something. Many of his errors have been on throws, and I’m inclined to think some of that has to be on the 1B. A failure to scoop a ball at 1B often is recorded as an error on the SS.

by Subber10 on Jul 5, 2025 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Mier

For me, I’m still surprised that the small sample size of a short season debut caused everyone to forget the concensus from months or weeks earlier that he was an overdraft.

I want overdrafts to succeed, and I love it when teams show some moxy, but what were people fixating on the preseason? The scouts didn’t love him, or he’d’a fit in with the first rounders. The stats were from a small sample size.

by Johnny Tuttle on Jul 5, 2025 11:21 AM EDT reply actions  

Frazier

for all the reasons already listed.

i have also seen Taylor play and I am unimpressed with any thing about his game except his physical size. He could be one of those great tools guys who can’t play.

by dbacks watcher on Jul 5, 2025 11:58 AM EDT reply actions  

answers

the only one i’m really worried about at this point is Frazier.

by John Sickels on Jul 5, 2025 2:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Hicks is very streaky

I think he started like 0 for 30 or something like that but recovered and tore it up to get his batting average up over .300 at one point in early May. Then he stunk the rest of May and was solid in June and so far in July has been decent.

While I know this is a bit silly if you look at overall #‘s since the early slump (taking out 30 AB’s) he’d be hitting .289/.400/.456. The OBP would probably be lower because I wasn’t sure how many times he walked during that early slump. So while maybe expectations have calmed a bit, there’s not a lot to necessarily worry about with Hicks yet either.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jul 5, 2025 3:08 PM EDT reply actions  


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