Thought Experiment: Young High School Outfielder
We talked a bit about high school pitchers last week, under what conditions they should sign for pro ball and what conditions they should go to college.
Turning that around a bit, let's talk about high school hitters. Here is a theroetical high school hitter to consider; I will do more of these if you like the feature.
Joe Shlabotnik is a young high school outfielder from Des Moines, Iowa. He is 6-0, 185 pounds, a left-handed hitter and thrower. His athleticism, arm strength and running speed are all average, and scouts don't expect that he will improve those; he is maxed out physically. Despite his cold-weather background and the fact that Iowa doesn't have high school spring baseball, he has done enough in summer ball and showcase games to excite scouts. He has an incredibly quick bat, excellent plate discipline, and despite his size projects to hit with at least average power in the pros. Some scouts think he could hit .300 in the majors if he develops properly, but not everyone agrees. Defensively he will fit best in left field. He is a good-but-not-excellent student, unsure of what he wants to major in, and has college baseball offers from Nebraska, Wichita State, Kansas, and Missouri State. KU and Missouri State both say they will give him a real chance to play regularly as a freshman, but Nebraska and WSU don't make that guarantee. Despite his tool limitations and relative lack of experience, scouts tell you that he should be drafted somewhere in the third round due to his terrific hitting.
If you were Joe's parents, would you advise him to turn pro, or go to college, and if he goes to college what school would you recommend, keeping in mind both opportunity/playing time, academics, and quality of competition?
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Anybody drafted after 65 or so, I would say go to school. Only go pro if your bonus is enough to sock away and be able to buy a house, pay for school and grad school if your pro career doesn’t work out. Commit to Kansas. Play Big XII ball and stand out on a lesser squad and get a good education.
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
Jason Stoffel, 2009 (Rookie + A-): 24IP, 1-0, 0.75 ERA, 5 S V, 25K. The heir apparent to B-Weez.
by bigboneded on May 25, 2025 5:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Also, I play with and against a lot of former college and minor league players. The guys that played college ball all seem to be better off and more stable than the guys who washed out of the minors.
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
Jason Stoffel, 2009 (Rookie + A-): 24IP, 1-0, 0.75 ERA, 5 S V, 25K. The heir apparent to B-Weez.
by bigboneded on May 25, 2025 5:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
When I was a kid ...
I always wanted a bubble gum card of Joe Shlabotnick. I bought hundreds of packs trying to get one.
Then my “friend” Lucy bought one pack and got a Joe. She wouldn’t trade me Joe’s card, though. Good grief!
It would depend a bit on the money. I’d probably lean toward the money and getting into a farm system. Proper development by a Major League Team could make a big different down the road in term of future salary. Sure, Joe MIGHT move up in the draft in future years, but it’s also possible that he’d down or suffer an injury.
As you of course know, Iowa does have summer high school baseball, so Joe would get a chance to shows his skills up to and after the draft, which could give him more leverage in negotiations. It’s not as if his senior season never happens - it’s just delayed a few months.
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by kosmo99 on May 25, 2025 5:16 PM EDT reply actions
From a purely scouting perspective
It seems like, due to his lack of elite athleticism, and the fact that it seems that the enigma adds to the hype, I’d advise him to turn pro now. Over the next few years, scouts will have many more opportunities to nit pick his body and that swing to the point that he could severely drop if they find enough not to like
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by Mets2k9 on May 25, 2025 6:08 PM EDT reply actions
yup
totally agree. if he doesn’t hit in college, he likely doesn’t get another chance in three years. and if he’s maxed out physically, unless he’s super elite with the bat, I don’t see how he’d get drafted much higher in three years either.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on May 25, 2025 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
If he can't hit in college
Then any chance at a pro career is pretty much gone too, right? Then where is he?
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by OldProspects on May 25, 2025 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
If he had any projection, I’d advise going to school, but it seems like he’s as good as he’s going to get.
by jar75 on May 25, 2025 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Go pro
You can get good money as a third round pick. If you develop in the minors, great. You may be passing up the funds from being drafted highly after 3 years of college, but if you’ve got serious ability you’ll likely be ready more quickly as a HS draftee than a college draftee. Thus you’ll start making ML money earlier on.
Go for it.
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by Conjunction on May 25, 2025 6:09 PM EDT reply actions
He should go to KU
He’d be an easier sell as a “polished college hitter, medium ceiling”-type than a “raw HSer w/ a medium ceiling”-type, and if he’s worth it, he’ll get his money and will have something academic to fall back on in case his career goes awry.
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by Pablo Zevallos on May 25, 2025 6:12 PM EDT reply actions
Once the bonus falls below the $500K range, I'd advise going to college
… even at the risk that he might not know what he wants to major in, and the risk that he might end up wasting his education on something he doesn’t really want in life. He’ll have at least two years to figure out what he wants from school, and he can always turn pro in a couple years if he’s still projected in the 1st-3rd round range and/or he still doesn’t really know what to get his degree in.
Otherwise, it’s a good move to get a degree (at least a business degree or something that can parlay into a decent career) and have that in case the longshot MLB career never happens. If he goes pro and is a projected 3rd round pick with average-ish skills, chances are likely that signing bonus is all the serious money he ever sees from playing.
by Gomez on May 25, 2025 6:12 PM EDT reply actions
Go get drafted
I agree with what Conjunction and Mets 2k9 said. If he’s maxed out physically then there is no sense in going the college route in my opinion.
by hrv1978 on May 25, 2025 6:13 PM EDT reply actions
Odd
Nobody seems to want to mention the possibility that going pro IS this kid’s College money. As a 3rd round pick doesn’t the signing bonus alone guarantee his future to a degree? I guess it really depends on A) How bad he wants a career in pro ball B) How bad he wants to go to college C) How much he needs the money at this time.
Something to keep in mind, of course - a quick glance at the history of 3rd round draft picks show that more than half never play in the big leagues, let alone get rich there.
by casejud on May 25, 2025 6:34 PM EDT reply actions
I always thought teams agreed to pay for the educational expenses of HS draftees. There could be various strings attached and maybe it doesn’t apply for all teams, but if he’s drafted and the team says they’d pay for college and possibly a master’s/JD/MD/whatever, I say let him go pro.
by Outshined_One on May 25, 2025 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I always thought teams agreed to pay for the educational expenses of HS draftees.
This is true, though they limit it at times to the state where you’re from, so they only give you in-state tuition. There was one player drafted last year that was already in college, and even though he and the team agreed on a bonus, he walked away from the table, because the team wanted him to finish his last year of his degree at a state school, and he was at a private school. He wanted that degree enough that his negotiation was driven by that more than the bonus. Obviously not going to name the player, but I fully understand his position. That’s a big difference for a non-elite player.
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by Andy Seiler on May 25, 2025 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Why are all these people saying get a degree?
Its not like he’s gonna get a degree in three years at any of these schools. he will be lucky to get halfway to graduation playing a college sport for three years at a big time program.
Lets be realistic, if the drafting team puts a bonus on the table enough to pay for an education after his career if it fizzles. He will have far more time to work on his craft as a pro.
by ADLC on May 25, 2025 6:37 PM EDT reply actions
I have a friend...
Pitcher drafted out of HS in the third round by Houston. Career fizzled due to injuries (and the fact that he was a dumbass). He had more then enough money after his career to go back to school and have a nice nest egg. If that same injury situation had happened during college he may have finished a degree, but thats it.
by ADLC on May 25, 2025 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
education = "that's it"?
are you sure you weren’t writing autobiographically?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 26, 2025 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Being a dick doesnt prove your point.
And yes, I mean “that’s it”.
You offer me $300-$500k to play baseball rather then attend college I take that deal every day of the week. A college education can take place at any age, and your window to try something like this is so small. I guarantee that if you ask my friend if he would have rather been finishing his senior year (again, under the false assumption that most of these kids are on pace to graduate) when his career ended I promise he turns it down every day of the week.
by ADLC on May 26, 2025 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I love these
These sorts of mental exercises are lots of fun.
It’s interesting that a lot of people here are saying that Joe wouldn’t have much to gain from going to college because he’s physically maxed out. In fact, he DOES have a lot to gain, because it sounds like one of the major dings against him is his lack of experience, particularly against top-tier competition. Joe’s profile as an amateur reminds me a lot of what John Drennen’s profile looked like at the same age. Drennen played in California, not Iowa, and he ended up at the top of the supplemental first round (not an overdraft). If anything, Joe’s profile is slightly better as his bat has a bit more upside, but it sounds like Joe’s lack of experience is costing him a good chunk of draft position and money. There are other guys that Joe reminds me of too, and for the sake of brevity they all got drafted higher than the third round.
Basically, this is a guy who stands to profit a LOT from going to a good college program. More people will see him, and he’ll remove one of the big question marks on his profile. Assuming he progresses as can be expected, he’s probably at least a supplemental first rounder in three years. Add in the fact that he’s a solid student who will probably enjoy the college experience and this seems like a lock to me.
The only real question left to ask is, which school does he go to? It doesn’t sound like anybody is going to guarantee him a starting position walking in the door, so he might as well go big and head to Nebraska. Big-time program to give him plenty of exposure, serious competition to quiet any concerns about his experience.
by mrkupe on May 25, 2025 6:43 PM EDT reply actions
Since we’re looking at this with the lens of a parent, I’m pushing school 100%, and that’s for reasons beyond the economic. If we’re talking about a kid that really struggles in school and hates it, that’s one thing, but I have to assume that this kid would love the college experience. That alone pushes me to remind him that if he makes decisions based purely on money for the rest of his life, his self-worth is going to be destroyed the minute his baseball career is over.
As for the school, I’d probably prefer Kansas. He’d get plenty of exposure against quality arms, would have a natural link to quality summer leagues, and he’d get to play right away. I have no idea about the academics, but if the baseball minds that have come from there are a good example, then I assume they’re quality (yay for John and Bill James).
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by Andy Seiler on May 25, 2025 7:07 PM EDT reply actions
Head to KU
This is one of those situations where I think “Joe” should go to school. The bonus might be good but unless there is a way he can get a team to agree to pay for his tuition (in case it doesn’t work out), he needs to play it safe. We are not talking about first round money here. If he improves his stock in college, great. However, if he doesn’t, he will still have an education in which he can earn more than his bonus would have paid.
Given that he needs the playing time, I’d say head to KU. Pretty good school overall and he will still get attention from scouts. If he wants even more attention, he could head over to Nebraska. Good school, good program. Unfortuantely, he won’t get as much playing time.
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by Whiteyballer on May 25, 2025 7:08 PM EDT reply actions
I guess I should ask for a clarification
When you say that Kansas and Missouri State will “give him a real shot” to play regularly, does that mean that he’s got frontrunner status for a starting job? If that’s the case, I’d probably go with Kansas.
by mrkupe on May 25, 2025 7:16 PM EDT reply actions
clarification
He will enter ’11 as the projected left fielder.
by John Sickels on May 25, 2025 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd lean towards turning pro
College is not age-limited - if the pro career doesn’t work out, he’ll have an opportunity to get his degree. It seems to me that the reason to go to college for baseball is to improve your draft stock, and the odds that he does so versus significantly better pitching seem small. Coupled with the potential risk of injury, under-performance, etc., it seems like there’s a very real chance not going pro now could end his aspirations.
More to the point, however, the 3rd round pick tells me that teams likely view this as his ceiling and feel that is high enough to ensure he signs. High upside picks that they gamble on signability tend to come later in the draft.
by sstamour on May 25, 2025 9:17 PM EDT reply actions
a few questions
“It seems to me that the reason to go to college for baseball is to improve your draft stock, and the odds that he does so versus significantly better pitching seem small.”
The scouts seem to think he’ll hit against anybody, the problem seems to be that they haven’t gotten to see him do it yet. So wouldn’t facing better pitching actually probably help his draft stock?
“More to the point, however, the 3rd round pick tells me that teams likely view this as his ceiling and feel that is high enough to ensure he signs. "
John said that he would get drafted in the 3rd round due to his hitting ability, not his signability. There are a bunch of examples of similar players who have been drafted very highly out of both college and the amateur ranks in talent-rich states. This guy would be a steal in round 3, he’d make you look really smart in three years.
by mrkupe on May 25, 2025 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess I should have actually given my question
What was the thought process here? I’m surprised because we took the college experience in totally opposite ways - I see it as the place where the guy is going to prove himself, you see it as the place where the guy is going to fail. Not saying you’re wrong - just interested to hear some more.
by mrkupe on May 25, 2025 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Just because he chooses college there's no guarantee he gets a degree
I heard a guy on the radio today talking about how his baseball scholarship got yanked from him after he hurt his shoulder and had surgery. He was at an ACC school. Coach just said thanks, but no thanks and we want to add some hitters to the team.
In my opinion, if you are serious about the sport and can make money, go that route.
by ReyL on May 25, 2025 9:45 PM EDT reply actions
Go pro
From the description, it sounds like a guy who would go in the first few rounds, especially if he gave indications that he would be willing to sign for close to slot money. That’s enough cash to make it worth your while. It would be too bad if he went to college and either had a major injury that decreased his value in the draft or had a college coach try to tinker with his swing and mess him up. Theoretically he’s the kind that could come back in a few years and be a no doubt about it first round pick, but a bird in the hand and all that. Everything has to go just right for that to happen.
Take the cash now, college will be there.
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by JM Barten on May 26, 2025 8:05 AM EDT reply actions
Not even a debate
am i the only one that looked up 3rd round money? you’re talking $360,000 - $560,000.
what is the point of going to college? to prepare you for a job and to help you gain access to job markets. now, what jobs could college prepare for you to make that type of money as soon as you graduate? none.
worse case scenario if he goes pro: kid flames out, walks with his $400,000 grand, goes to college, and starts his real life in a better financial situation than people who have worked for 20-30 years.
worse case if he goes to school: gets hurt, neve rgoes pro. the kid is also more liekly to hurt his draft status than he is to improve it. haven’t we learned from the hundreds of stories of people who should have taken the money?
by ScottAZ on May 26, 2025 10:17 AM EDT reply actions
You're not the only one
I said I’d lean toward the money - because of the point you bring up.
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by kosmo99 on May 26, 2025 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
depends on the money
im not a parent, but i am a high school PE teacher and a college professor…I would probably tell my child, the choice is yours…but if he were to ask my advice, if the initial signing bonus/contract was enough to pay for your whole college degree and enough to help keep a roof over your head and food on your plate, TAKE THE MONEY NOW…college will always be there, but the ability to make millions wont.
by miraclemets on May 26, 2025 11:21 AM EDT reply actions
wrote ability
meant opportunity…but i guess they both fit
by miraclemets on May 26, 2025 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Go to KU
enjoy the college experience. If he was projected in the 1st round then you probably go for pro ball but being projected as a 3rd rounder he definitely has the opportunity to improve his draft stock.
Plus playing in the big 12 is such a rare opportunity.
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by Michael Cave on May 26, 2025 11:40 AM EDT reply actions
Take the money, honey.
What does college get this kid? A paid for education? That’s covered by his drafting team…and its a better deal than the baseball scholarship since he gets to be a student full time if this happens.
He isn’t really projectible, so there’s no real reason to believe there is a big chance that he climbs into first round—from the write up his upside seems like a Randy Winn-type whether he enters in HS or in college and that’s not what folks want in the first round. Even if he does, the marginal difference between that bonus and the $350-$500K he has on the table could be easily overtaken by reaching arbitration a year or two earlier as a prep entry than a college entry. With his hitting skills, he seems like a guy who could fly through the low minors making this a very realistic possibility.
My advice would be this—go to college if and only if you want that experience but understand that the price you pay for it might be high in monetary terms and that there is very little chance you improve your financial prospects by doing so.
by BlueEyes_Austin on May 26, 2025 3:04 PM EDT reply actions
“and its a better deal than the baseball scholarship since he gets to be a student full time if this happens.”
This is a great point. The kid could definitely focus a lot more on studies without the demands of being on the college team.
The Casual Observer - a web magazine with an eclectic mix of sports, politics, fiction, and other weird sh*t.
by kosmo99 on May 27, 2025 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
my take
Basically, if this were my son, if he really did get drafted in the third round I would advise him to sign and save the money as a nestegg…no fancy cars. If he washes out in pro ball, he can go to college then.
If he falls too much in the draft, then I would advise him to go to college most likely.
by John Sickels on May 26, 2025 3:51 PM EDT reply actions
Almost a No Brainer
If you’re taken in the 3rd round then you should sign unless you are headed to Vanderbilt, Rice, UCLA, Texas, etc. Even if you are headed to those schools then you should probably still sign. Just get a little extra.
Missouri State, Kansas, Nebraska and Wichita State are not good enough academic schools that should keep you from collecting $300,000-$400,000. Wichita State is really the only great baseball program you are missing out on. Nebraska is hit or miss. They were great but are a little down now. You’ll be lucky to be in an NCAA regional once if you go to Missouri State or Kansas.
I’d have him sign with Nebraska. They have a wonderful field, are good enough that you might play in 2 or more regionals and are currently bad enough that you might be able to earn a good chunk of playing time as a freshman and their school is decent.
I’d probably tell scouts that if he isn’t taken by the 6th round then he’ll go to Nebraska where his great hitting tools could turn him into a .350+ college hitter and major contributor to a team that could be a strong contender. Despite having average speed and maybe just average power he could still be a top 5 round pick in 3 years like a Logan Schafer or Jason Kipnis.
by UncleBuck44 on May 26, 2025 4:30 PM EDT reply actions
pretty much
Andre Ethier was basically that exact same player. So was Travis Buck. Kipnis, same deal.
If he was some toolsy but raw kid, then sure, go to the pros and make the money now. But he’s already a really good hitter, with skills that people believe in. The only thing holding him back from a higher draft slot is that people just want to see him do what they already think he can do against good competition. He gets three years to chill in school and enjoy himself, and he probably improves his draft stock. Plus (and this is big for a high draftee), his path to the majors in pro ball is shorter . . .and considering that minor league life kinda sucks, that’s not to be underestimated.
by mrkupe on May 26, 2025 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Who says minor league life sucks?
Young, fit, money in your pocket and only in town for a few days at a time? Seems like a dream situation. Might get old if you are doing it for five years, or trying to start a family, but at 18 I can think of far worse situations to be in.
by ADLC on May 26, 2025 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
you could see it like that
Or you could see it as being away from your family and everybody else you know for the majority of the year, constantly on the move, taking long bus rides to little towns that are barely on the map (not an exaggeration, I could name more than a few places that would qualify). No doubt these guys are doing something that they want to do, but there’s a reason why it’s called a “grind” and not a “joyride”. A lot of kids don’t handle going to college at 18 all that well - instantly fighting for your professional future in a less supportive environment is a lot worse. Maybe I’m in the minority, but I’m pretty sure I would have gone nigh-crazy under those conditions at that age.
by mrkupe on May 26, 2025 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
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